What’s the opposite of a gift that keeps on giving? A mistake that keeps metastasizing. Which pretty much sums up the US role in the Middle East. Beginning with the CIA’s 1953 overthrow of Iran’s democratically elected president and continuing through the multiple regime changes and invasions of recent years, various American governments have behaved […]


Can You Imagine The Fed Raising Rates In This World? Everything Going Wrong At Once Edition

After the markets failed to embrace its most recent interest rate dither, the Fed dispatched pretty much its entire PR team to make sure we understood that rates would rise Next Month For Sure. Then everything kind of fell apart. Emerging market capital flight accelerated… Is this the mother of all warnings on EMs? (CNBC) […]

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Panic Is Spreading, Part 1: Surge in Junk Bond Defaults Imminent

One of the early signs that a cycle is about to turn down is disorder in junk bonds. That’s because the companies that issue such bonds are by definition financially and/or operationally weak and therefore ultra-sensitive to changes in their environment. A modest drop in, say, consumer spending or the price of wind turbines will […]

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The Week Begins On A Scary Note

The US markets awoke to news of several big, disturbing overseas events: Glencore implodes. Think of Swiss commodities giant Glencore as a modern version of Enron, in the sense that it owns physical assets like mines and oil wells around the world and runs perhaps the biggest commodities derivatives trading desk. And — also like […]

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Whole Lotta Bear Markets Goin’ On

The Dow and S&P 500 have fallen by around 10% since August, which in normal times would be hardly worth mentioning. But below the surface, in what used to be the market’s hottest sectors, much more serious damage is taking place. Biotech, which had an epic bull market during the era of QE and the […]

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