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Here’s a study from Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management that ties in nicely with the muni bond collapse / federal bailout of the states thread. State pension funds headed for crisis of national proportion According to new research from the Kellogg School of Management, taxpayers, public workers and state and federal officials alike have […]


The latest issue of Australian analyst Graham Dyer’s newsletter begins with the assertion that most of the world’s stock markets have entered a “wave 3” decline, which, according to Elliott Wave theory, is generally the longest and most punishing of the five-wave bear market sequence. Dyer then looks at gold and oil which, he says, […]


Munis About to Blow Up

by John Rubino on May 24, 2010 · 20 comments

So I’m sitting here trying to turn a pile of (mostly terrifying) data on muni bonds into a post that explains why this is the next domino to fall, and here comes Time Magazine with a feature on that subject: Municipal Bonds: The Next Financial Land Mine? As Wall Street nervously watches the sovereign debt […]


GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB), a European newsletter that “brings you its unique analyses on the upcoming stages of the collapse of the world order created after 1945, as well as numerous strategic recommendations for your decisions in the political, economic and financial fields” is out with one of its typically provocative theses: That the Greek […]


Classic Videos: Meltup

by John Rubino on May 14, 2010 · 12 comments

The National Inflation Association is back with another long, well-made, apocalyptic video. The subject is the “recovery” and its inflationary implications: “The truth is, our economy is not recovering. Prices are only rising because of inflation. Our economy is currently experiencing a melt-up…Government spending is so far out of control that if Americans were taxed […]


Europe Delays the Inevitable

by John Rubino on May 10, 2010 · 18 comments

While working on a post about what a waste the European bailout of Greece will turn out to be, I found this from Hussman Funds’ John Hussman, who comes at it from an interesting angle: Greek Debt and Backward Induction On Sunday, the IMF approved its 30 billion portion of the 110 billion euro bailout […]


The Long Wave Versus the Printing Press

by John Rubino on May 2, 2010 · 68 comments

The fascinating thing about “long wave” analysis (broadly defined to include Kondratieff waves,  Elliott waves, and William Strauss and Neil Howe’s Fourth Turning) is that while each theory uses its own indicators and terminology to show how societies move through recurring cultural/psychological/financial stages, they’ve all reached the same conclusion: we’re toast. 2000 marked the theoretical […]


Prudent Bear’s Doug Noland was a must-read in the years leading up to the bursting of the housing bubble. Almost alone out there, he got not just the fact that we were heading off a cliff, but the exact mechanism of our demise: “Wall Street alchemy” was creating unlimited amounts of artificial securities that the […]


The Best Volatility Play

by John Rubino on April 18, 2010 · 14 comments

Take a look at the chart below, and note the unnaturally smooth 80% decline. Kind of makes you think “imminent bankruptcy”. But now consider that the security in question is 100% guaranteed not to fall to zero and about 90% guaranteed to stay above 10. It’s VXX, an exchange traded fund that, according to its […]


Time to Get Short, Part 2

by John Rubino on April 15, 2010 · 12 comments

Signs of a top are accumulating. Here’s survey of the market’s happy mood from Wednesday’s Financial Times (love the first line): Irrational equanimity is back. Not only are developed market stocks back to pre-Lehman levels, but investors’ comfort levels are in a zone not seen since the eve of the credit crisis in early 2007. […]


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