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Equity Markets

One of the reasons US stocks have had such a nice run is that public companies have been making a lot of money. The profit bounce from Great Recession lows was both big and fast, taking corporate earnings to record levels both in nominal terms and as a portion of GDP. But since 2012 profits […]


While the “stock market” continues to flirt with new records, there’s turmoil under the surface. High-flying social media companies Twitter and LinkedIn fell hard in late April, and now recent IPO Etsy, an online marketplace for arts and crafts, is down 50% since going public (8% of that today). Bull markets don’t end all at […]


David Stockman just published a chart so compelling that he didn’t feel the need to add any commentary. But there are a few things to be said about the tendency of public companies to repurchase their shares at the very top: “Peak buyback” is a sign that executives are seeing fewer opportunities to generate positive […]


Advisor Perspectives’ Doug Short recently published an update on margin debt, accompanied by several well-made charts. But it only takes one to make the point. See below for the relationship between margin debt — money borrowed by retail investors against their stocks and used to buy more stock — where Short has enhanced the visual […]


When Big Names Say Bad Things

by John Rubino on May 3, 2015 · 4 comments

Some well-known money managers have been badmouthing the financial markets for what seems like a really long time. Peter Schiff — just as in the early 2000s — has been correct but early in predicting another crisis. Marc Faber has been calling for a correction in US stocks since 2013, and has now upped his […]


We’re All Hedge Funds Now

by John Rubino on March 20, 2015 · 16 comments

As negative interest rates spread from Switzerland, Japan and Germany to the rest of the developed world, people with money to invest face some life-defining choices. Retirees who need to generate 6% to avoid dipping into principal can’t get there with bank CDs. Pension funds that have promised an 8% return in order to meet […]


The Most-Anticipated Stock Market Crash

by John Rubino on August 6, 2014 · 15 comments

US equities have been going up for so long that most investors — especially those who were only recently enticed into the casino by the apparently easy money on offer — have trouble remembering the last time it was possible to lose big in stocks. Along the way, a whole slew of indices and indicators […]


For the average person trying to decide how to feel about the economy, the single biggest data point is the stock market. When share prices are rising, the implicit message is that finance professionals — who, after all, dedicate their lives to understanding such things and should therefore know what’s happening — have decided that […]


The latest issue of Australian analyst Graham Dyer’s newsletter begins with the assertion that most of the world’s stock markets have entered a “wave 3” decline, which, according to Elliott Wave theory, is generally the longest and most punishing of the five-wave bear market sequence. Dyer then looks at gold and oil which, he says, […]


Time to Get Short, Part 2

by John Rubino on April 15, 2010 · 12 comments

Signs of a top are accumulating. Here’s survey of the market’s happy mood from Wednesday’s Financial Times (love the first line): Irrational equanimity is back. Not only are developed market stocks back to pre-Lehman levels, but investors’ comfort levels are in a zone not seen since the eve of the credit crisis in early 2007. […]


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