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First-Quarter GDP: Way Worse Than It Looks

by John Rubino on April 26, 2013 · 8 comments

First-quarter GDP came in at an annualized rate of 2.5% this morning, which is not terrible as growth goes these days (Japan and most of the eurozone countries would love to be doing that well). But dig a little deeper and the picture gets darker. Here’s a summary from the Consumer Metrics Institute, which has [...]

News Flash: Economists Clueless

by John Rubino on April 22, 2013 · 19 comments

Economist Robert J. Samuelson just published an unintentionally funny article in Capital Journal on the bemusement today’s economists feel after being wrong about virtually everything for the past decade. The end of macro magic The International Monetary Fund recently held a conference that should concern most people despite its arcane subject – “Rethinking Macro Policy [...]

“Risk-Free” Is So 2012

by John Rubino on March 25, 2013 · 15 comments

So you’ve got this pile of cash and you’re not sure what to do with it. Nice problem, as problems go, but definitely not trivial, especially if you’re more concerned with keeping what you have than trying to make it grow. Time was when you could simply deposit a few hundred thousand dollars or euros [...]

Is the Bubble Back?

by John Rubino on March 10, 2013 · 7 comments

For a decade or so leading up to the 2009 crash, one of the highlights of Doug Noland’s Prudent Bear Credit Bubble column was his quarterly dissection of the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 Flow of Funds report. This was pure finance-geek porn showing ridiculous, parabolic, trillion-dollar increases in mortgages or Treasury debt or business borrowing or [...]

Consumer Metrics Institute: A Hard Year Ahead

by John Rubino on February 25, 2013 · 6 comments

The US economy stalled in the 4th quarter, but the analysis that accompanied the latest (slightly positive) GDP revision seemed to imply that the reasons for the weakness – a drawdown of inventories and lower defense spending – would be reversed out in coming months, making 2013 a pretty good year. But the Consumer Metrics [...]

The GAAP In The Debt Debate

by John Rubino on January 15, 2013 · 11 comments

There’s a fascinating (and enraging to both sides) argument going on over whether debt really matters. On one side are the Austrian-inspired hard money advocates who see excessive borrowing as even worse for governments than it is for individuals and families. On the other side are the Krugman/Bernanke Keynesians who think debt is no big [...]

Now We Can Stop Paying Attention

by John Rubino on November 7, 2012 · 21 comments

Two years, billions of dollars worth of political ads, and a nearly infinite number of platitudes and lies later, the election is finally over and we’re…back where we started, with a divided government run by the same people, likely to pursue the same policies and spend a similar amount of time in gridlock. Not all [...]

Why Isn’t Illinois A Bigger Story Than Greece?

by John Rubino on January 22, 2012 · 79 comments

As the Greek default (and it is a default no matter what they end up calling it) is finalized this week, the consensus seems to be that failure to reach a deal would cause a global financial apocalypse. That may be true. And if it is, why aren’t we more worried about Illinois? It’s more [...]

Complex Systems, Dysfunctional Industries, and Catastrophic Collapse

by John Rubino on January 8, 2012 · 41 comments

Over the holidays we tempted fate by booking a multi-stage plane trip … and ended up with cancelled flights, missed connections, and blank-faced airline employees who sincerely didn’t care if we spent a night or a week on the terminal floor. While I wallowed in self pity over this loss of control, my wife noted [...]

Welcome To The Third World, Part 4: Boomers Reap What They’ve Sown

by John Rubino on December 19, 2011 · 90 comments

It was fun while it lasted. We Baby Boomers got to diss our elders when we were young and borrow without restraint through middle-age. Few generations have traveled such a smooth stretch of financial/psychological highway. But now that we’re…old…the world we created isn’t so congenial. Our savings are inadequate, jobs are scarce, and retirement, as [...]