Fund manager John Hussman is always good for dramatic charts. Here’s a recent one: This ratio is even scarier than it looks, says Hussman: Historically-reliable valuation measures now approach those observed at the 2000 bubble peak. Yet even this comparison overlooks the fact that in 2000, the overvaluation featured a subset of very large-capitalization stocks […]
First it was the banks reporting horrendous numbers — largely, we were told, because of their exposure to recently-cratered energy companies. Now it’s Big Tech, which is a much harder thing to explain. The FAANGs (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google) own their niches and not so long ago were expected to generate strong growth […]
Coming into this corporate earnings season, everyone seemed to expect disappointment. But they thought it would come from the energy sector and the banks that had lent that sector way too much money (see Goldman Sachs is a flattened slug). Technology was, as always, thought to be immune to the vagaries of the Old Economy. […]
Goldman, Morgan Stanley and IBM release numbers that look, well, depression-like. Housing starts plunge, gold and silver spike, China’s bond market seizes up, and Deutsche Bank prepares to name names in its gold manipulation scandal. And US stocks keep rising…what’s wrong with this picture?
Most US companies will report earnings this month, and most analysts think the results will be depressing. That’s bad news for stock prices and might add to the (already considerable) pressure on governments to step up their stimulus programs. Gold and silver, meanwhile, seem to like all this financial turmoil.
Here’s one for the “actions speak louder than words” file: Massive insider selling spurs stock market concerns (CNBC) – Corporate insiders have been selling their shares at near-record levels, and according to some, this could be a sign for outside investors to start selling as well. Investment research firm TrimTabs reported on Wednesday that insider […]
Think of “market internals” as the blood pressure and insulin levels of the financial world. They operate below the surface, frequently unnoticed, but over time they have a big say in the health of the patient. And right now they’re pointing to a heart attack. Let’s start with junk bonds. These are loans to financially […]
A too-strong currency is, in theory, supposed to make it harder to sell things to cheap-currency countries, thus crimping corporate profits and by implication pretty much everything else. The US dollar has been rising against the rest of the world for over a year, so let’s see how we’re doing. From today’s Wall Street Journal: […]
The big retail chains are generally seen as pretty good barometers of the health of “the consumer.” And since — in today’s late-cycle debt-binge pseudo-capitalism — the consumer drives the economy, the numbers coming out of the aforementioned retail chains should be cause for worry. First Macy’s got our attention: Macy’s Sounds a Holiday Alarm, […]
If you ignore their recent volatility, the financial markets are painting a fairly happy picture. The S&P 500, for instance, is closer to its 12-month high than its low, and investment grade bonds are behaving like next year should be pretty much like this one. But under the surface — which is where big trends […]
CNBC has a daily feature called after-hours buzz that, it being earnings season, is full of corporate quarterly reports. And lately the same story has been repeated: decent earnings but weak sales and/or disappointing guidance. Here’s today’s list: AT&T topped analysts’ profit estimates by a penny on Wednesday, but revenue came in light as core […]
The term gets tossed around a lot, but the meaning and consequences of a “currency war” aren’t intuitively clear to most people. Especially confusing is the idea that you lose the war when your currency goes up. The suddenly very strong dollar, for instance, should, one would think, be a good thing, since it seems to […]
The dollar is on a tear. And the world is scrambling to figure out what it means. Beginning with the always-interesting Martin Armstrong in a recent Financial Sense interview: “I know a lot of people that hate the dollar, but you have to understand the dollar is really only the game in town. Yes, we […]