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Consumer Metrics Institute: GDP Report “Does Not Bode Well”

by John Rubino on November 22, 2011

The Consumer Metrics Institute, a consultancy with a good track record of year-ahead economic predictions, is out with its analysis of 3rd quarter GDP. By and large it’s pretty grim. Some excerpts follow without comment, since the main points pretty much speak for themselves: In their second estimate of the third quarter 2011 GDP, the [...]

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What Would Happen if Goldman Sachs Disappeared?

by John Rubino on October 24, 2011

As Europe grinds out yet another doomed banking system rescue plan, it might be helpful to examine the underlying assumption, which is that we need these big banks. Do we really? If Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, Crédit Lyonnais and five or six of their peers ceased to exist tonight, what would happen? [...]

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The Well-Off Shop While the Peasants Grab Their Pitchforks

by John Rubino on October 11, 2011

Times are tough… U.S. Consumer Credit Fell $9.5 Billion in August August marked the largest drop in consumer credit in almost a year according to a statement released by the Federal Reserve on Sunday. The $9.5 billion decrease follows an $11.9 billion increase the previous month. The Feds also announced that non-revolving credit such as [...]

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A Sign of Things to Come?

by John Rubino on August 11, 2010

This isn’t how it normally goes. For the past couple of decades — that is, during the parabolic phase of the global credit bubble — the financial markets have responded to US Fed announcements of easier money like kids whose daddy has promised them a trip to Disneyland. The euphoria doesn’t always last, but the [...]

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"We Could Really Use Some Good News"

by John Rubino on July 16, 2010

Normally, the consumer sentiment number that comes out each month seems like a piece of media fluff, far less substantial than, say, housing starts or the gold price. But today’s report is unusual enough to deserve a longer look. From MarketWatch: Nothing happened, but the news was bad anyway Commentary: Historic decline in sentiment comes [...]

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Why We’re Ungovernable

by John Rubino on July 14, 2010

For the first time in 250 years, politics has become irrelevant. Not uninteresting or unimportant; obviously the way a society organizes itself matters to its citizens and its place in the world. But today there are no policies left on the “possible” menu that will save us from what’s coming. So a rational person’s time [...]

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Inflationary Head Fake

by John Rubino on March 5, 2010

Today (Friday the 5th) has a meaningful feel. The news is good on U.S. employment and Greek finances, and the markets are in recovery mode: stocks are up, gold is rocking, and bonds are getting smacked. Inflationary days are here again, in other words. But — while uncontrolled currency creation will absolutely without a doubt [...]

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Classic Videos: Ben Bernanke’s Predictions

by John Rubino on March 2, 2010

Of all the surreal choices the U.S. has made in the last few years, the strangest might be our decision to put the people who ruined the old system in charge of fixing it. Ben Bernanke, Barney Frank, Nancy Pelosi, Chris Dodd, Tim Geithner et al built the monetary policy and regulatory structure that let [...]

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Another Day, Another Bail-Out

by John Rubino on February 9, 2010

With a bail-out of Greece apparently imminent and everyone drawing parallels between the PIGS countries and the Wall Street firms that nearly cratered the global economy in 2008, this might be a good time to ask why each year seems to bring a new set of financial basket cases requiring taxpayer cash. The answer, of [...]

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Lies We’re Being Told: Interest is Consumption, Saving is “a Negative Act”

by John Rubino on February 2, 2010

The latest piece of deep thought from iTulip’s Eric Janszen explains why, if the recession is over, so many people remain in such bad shape. More specifically, how can U.S. GDP be up by a robust 5% when oil imports and rail traffic are down and unemployment is still rising? The answer, in a nutshell, [...]

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