For me, hearing supposed “experts” talk about what’s now happening in the markets and economy is like listening to nails scratch against a chalkboard because
If there was only one causal factor nudging the economy into recession, it might be a mild, brief recession. But with all five conditions in
The debate between an outlook for inflation versus recession intensifies. We appear to be moving on from the stagflation story into outright fears over monetary
“I think this recession is going to be worse than the Great Recession that started following the 2008 financial crisis…. Inflation is actually going to
The government is making money cheaper to maintain electoral support, leading to a dispersal of demand and a proliferation of zombie companies, distorting the incentives
Look to your own churning gut as one of the passengers on this rocking and rolling ship to see if you don’t have that sinking
Central bankers’ narratives are falling apart. And faced with unpopularity over rising prices politicians are beginning to question central bank independence. Driven by the groupthink
John Mauldin: The coming recession/bear market is going to create ‘marvelous’ buying opportunities … Lance Roberts: Debt bubbles signal sharp recession … Jim Rickards: How
The IMF is blaming the war for disrupting global commerce, pushing up oil prices, threatening food supplies and increasing uncertainty already heightened by the coronavirus….
The key insight of the Austrian School of Economics (maybe the key insight of ALL economics) is that the amount you borrow matters, but so
Despite all the ominous press being devoted to the soon-to-be-inverted yield curve, it’s not always clear why such a thing matters. In other words, how,
If corporate earnings rise in 2019 like Wall Street analysts expect, stocks are a screaming buy at these bear-market levels. But earnings won’t rise and
Towards the end of economic expansions, interest rates usually start to rise as strong loan demand bumps up against central bank tightening. At first the
Economist Peter Bookvar recently analyzed the the anecdotal evidence of capacity constraints piling up in recent industry surveys, including the following: “Business is strong in
After an epic (generation-spanning at the long end) decline in interest rates, the trend has finally reversed. Which means, if history is still a reliable
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