The stock market is likely to experience a 30-50% correction from its highs, potentially taking several years to recover, triggered by slowing economic data, real estate topping out, and Magnificent 7 tech companies entering a downtrend.
Gold is considered a high-probability play for investors, with an upside target of $3,275 based on recent price action and measured moves after hitting major cycle highs.
The bond market is expected to become a defensive play as stocks sell off, with bonds potentially moving up and becoming a safe haven for investors based on bull flag chart formations.
The best position to hold during a market crash is cash, allowing investors to avoid losses, earn interest, and preserve wealth while waiting for opportunities.
Inverse ETFs are the only way to take advantage of a stage 4 market collapse, as they increase in value as the market declines.
The uranium market is at a major support level around $22-$23, with potential for a bounce to $27-$28 in a bear market rally once the stock market recovers.
The oil market is bearish, with a potential plunge to $45 a barrel if it breaks below $65, which would send energy stocks tumbling.
The current market environment is described as a blend of the 2007-2008 and 2000 market tops, suggesting a significant correction and prolonged recovery period.
Tariffs and trade uncertainty from Trump’s policies may continue to impact the market, potentially creating a surge of buying pressure before tariffs take effect and distorting economic data.
Uncertainty and panic selling are causing investors to liquidate and move away from the financial system, with gold and commodities becoming safe havens during market turmoil.
Tariffs are deflationary in the short term, leading to inventory imbalances and forced discounting, but could become inflationary if they remain in place long-term.
If tariffs persist, a recession is likely within 6 months, potentially causing a 1-1.5% negative GDP growth and prompting the Fed to cut rates to zero and implement QE.
The market could rally to S&P 5600-5700, providing a potential exit point to reduce equity risk, while stocks like Nvidia, Google, and Amazon may offer good entry points.
Emerging markets are highly dependent on the US economy, with a US recession potentially taking 18-24 months for benefits to manifest globally.
The long-term strategy aims to rebalance global trade, drive US manufacturing investment, spur economic growth through tax cuts and deregulation, and prioritize national security by reshoring critical industries.
Trump may double down on tariffs, risking short-term recession and market pain, but potentially benefiting the economy in years 2-4 of his presidency if negotiations with other countries play out favorably.
Credit spreads, a key indicator of economic risk, are rising but not at levels consistent with a systemic financial crisis like the 2008 subprime crisis.
Buy now pay later loans are raising credit concerns, potentially tightening lending standards and impacting consumer spending.
The risk of overextended players like hedge funds, private equity, and private lenders facing unexpected tariff impacts is present, but credit spreads suggest rising risk without a systemic event on the horizon.
The negative psychological impact of tariffs on consumers will drive declining demand, forcing inventory liquidations at discounted prices, which is disinflationary.
Affluent consumers may start contracting spending due to negative wealth effects from falling stock markets, contributing to recessionary pressures.
Create a financial binder containing important information like account numbers, passwords, and trusted advisors to help loved ones organize finances during difficult times.
Identify a successor to manage finances if incapacitated, choosing a family member or financial advisor philosophically aligned with your approach.
Involve your spouse in the investment process through monthly portfolio review meetings, explaining decisions and their impact to ensure a smooth transition of financial responsibilities.
Consulting experts like financial advisors can provide valuable insights and correct mistakes, potentially saving time and money even with a one-time consultation.
Tariffs increase production costs without directly affecting prices, as prices are determined by consumer valuation, not production costs.
Companies operating on thin margins will either lose money or lose customers when faced with tariffs, potentially forcing them to cease production.
When companies stop offering products due to tariffs, supply decreases while demand remains constant, leading to higher prices as domestic suppliers struggle to fill the gap.
The global reciprocal tariff strategy implemented by Trump will likely result in Americans paying higher prices throughout the negotiation period.
Trump’s team is gambling on either the inapplicability of economic laws or an uncharacteristic acceptance of higher prices by the struggling American middle class.
1.1.4 billion Chinese are seeking to move their money out due to capital controls, turning to gold as a trusted store of value even in 2025.
Germany is reconsidering storing its gold reserves in the US, indicating growing distrust in the US financial system.
Gold remains isolated from fiscal problems, budget deficits, and wars, making it an attractive asset in uncertain times.
Beyond its role as a store of value, gold has diverse applications in jewelry, industrial uses, and even as doorstops, particularly in India.
China is experiencing an economic recession/depression, leading to increased gold demand as people lose faith in the Chinese currency.
The US monetary system is collapsing due to decades of mismanagement, endless money printing, and artificially low interest rates, with debt exceeding 120% of GDP.
Extreme wealth inequality in America, with the top 1% owning 92% of assets and the bottom 50% owning only 15%, is a direct result of the broken monetary system.
A “debt doom loop” is occurring as rising interest rates increase debt servicing costs, leading to larger deficits and more bond sales, pushing rates higher in a reflexive cycle.
Gold and Bitcoin prices are signaling the failure of fiat currency, with predictions of gold reaching $3100 and Bitcoin hitting $106-107 in 2023.
The “Everything Bubble,” caused by 11 years of free money, is more overvalued than the 1929 peak (down 82%), the dot-com bubble (down 50-80%), and the 2008 crisis (down 47%).
The Fourth Turning theory suggests societies go through 80-year cycles, with the current rebirth cycle addressing the core question of “what is money.”
Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million offers a digital, deflationary alternative to gold, providing easier verification, transferability, and transparency through its public ledger.
Gold’s tiny market ($7T) compared to total global wealth ($950T) means even a 5% shift to gold could significantly push prices up.
The Federal Reserve has caused more pain than necessary, benefiting a few while the rest suffer from inflation, and should be abolished in favor of a sound money standard.
Fiat money, controlled by governments and central banks, is inherently unfair as it allows money printing that benefits debtors but continually dilutes value for working people.
Abolishing the Fed, ending FDIC guarantees, and letting the free market determine money would eliminate gambling and nonsense in a fiat world, rewarding conservative savers.
The government can’t print gold, Bitcoin, or houses, making them better inflation hedges than real estate, which is more easily taxed as governments run deficits.
The dollar’s reserve status could deteriorate if the US doesn’t get its fiscal house in order, with ballooning deficits potentially leading to the loss of its privileged position to digital assets like Bitcoin.
Gold outperformed the S&P 500 in 23 out of 54 years (1971-2024), averaging a 28.8% return when the S&P 500 had negative returns, compared to the S&P 500’s negative 15.3% return in those years.
Gold’s historical compound annual growth rate was 8.19% versus 11.52% for the S&P 500, resulting in a $100 investment in gold in 1971 being worth $7,000 today, while the same in the S&P 500 would be worth over $36,000.
Gold has a major advantage over stocks in terms of default risk, as it can’t default like individual companies, making it a hedge against financial turmoil and rising bankruptcies.
Gold’s average volatility was 26.9% compared to 16% for the S&P 500, but in recent decades their risk profiles have converged.
Adding a 3% annual yield to a $100 gold investment in 1971 boosts its value to over $33,000 today, nearly matching the S&P 500’s $36,000, significantly improving gold’s competitiveness as an investment option.
The theory of joint supply explains why silver prices can defy conventional wisdom, potentially rising during economic downturns due to decreased byproduct supply from other metal mining operations.
Silver’s price is relatively insensitive to higher prices due to inelastic demand from industrial users, who continue to use silver even as prices increase.
The majority of silver supply is a byproduct of lead, zinc, copper, and gold mining, with some primary silver mines also producing these metals as secondary products.
Joint production in mining operations means the price of one metal can significantly affect the prices of others extracted from the same ore.
The silver market is not manipulated by conspiracy but is influenced by complex economic factors, primarily the theory of joint supply.
Credit spreads are widening, indicating potential market issues and high volatility, with leverage loans and junk bonds breaking down, suggesting deteriorating credit conditions.
Two-year yields at 4% could be cut in half within a year, signaling an impending recession and suggesting they are currently overvalued.
The dollar, one of the most overvalued currencies in history, is expected to fall further, creating opportunities in emerging markets, commodities, and hard assets.
The Fed may keep rates higher for longer despite economic cracks, facing political pressures and the need to reduce interest payments and deficits.
The Fed’s focus on inflation may delay rate cuts, potentially allowing inflation to run hotter to support the case for investing in commodities.
A commodity supercycle is likely in the next 5-10 years, driven by supply shrinkage, rising demand from electrification and infrastructure, and depressed capex in producers.
Gold is expected to reach $3,000/oz, with production costs under $1,500/oz resulting in insane margins of $1,600+ for disciplined mining companies.
Copper will benefit from electrification, infrastructure development, and rising gold prices, being critical for rebuilding G7 economies.
Silver and zinc are extremely bullish, with silver benefiting from solar panel demand and being a monetary metal, while zinc is critical for construction and expansion during inflationary periods.
U.S. gold reserves at 90-year lows contrast with 50-year high international central bank gold ownership, suggesting a potential U.S. gold accumulation strategy.
Investing in U.S. refining and smelting capacity for metals is crucial to reduce reliance on China, which currently dominates refining despite its pollution.
Mega-cap stocks are already in a bear market, with many below the 200-day moving average, according to Paul Tudor Jones’ famous phrase.
Mining stocks, junior miners, and silver miners are viewed as undervalued opportunities linked to the Fed’s actions and the favorable commodity environment.
The Federal Reserve, created in 1913, enabled US participation in WWI through money printing, aligning with the Marxist concept of central banking outlined in the 1848 Communist Manifesto.
Money printing corrupts both currency and individuals, creating a powerful incentive for political control and leading to the corruption of the human soul driven by greed and power lust.
Keynesian economics, funded by money printing, produces propaganda justifying inflation and money supply management, creating a vicious cycle of theft and rationalization.
The Austrian School of economics emphasizes understanding the world through philosophy, political philosophy, and history, contrasting with mainstream economics’ focus on mathematical modeling.
The Mises Institute provides an alternative to government-funded think tanks, focusing on long-term economic education and research in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises, Murray Rothbard, and Friedrich Hayek.
Austrian economists predicted the 2008 financial crisis years in advance, understanding that central banks cause boom and bust cycles through money supply manipulation.
Lincoln’s real agenda, revealed in his first inaugural address, was to protect slavery, support the Fugitive Slave Act, and enshrine slavery in the Constitution with the Corwin Amendment.
Lincoln threatened invasion and bloodshed over tariff collection, doubling the federal tariff tax and sending warships to Charleston Harbor to protect the customs office.
The Corwin Amendment, supported by Lincoln, would have prohibited the Federal government from ever interfering in slavery, enshrining it in the Constitution.
Foreign aid often benefits rich American corporations more than intended recipients, primarily providing goods and services from these corporations.
Minimum wage laws and labor union empowerment during the Great Depression worsened unemployment by creating price floors and enabling unions to push up wages.
Government spending is an inevitable misallocation of capital due to the theft that funds it, as politicians use taxation and inflation to take money from producers.
Market competition, within the limits of private property rights, drives prices down, product quality up, and real wages up through a dynamic discovery process.
Socialism, encompassing government ownership of production and income redistribution, is inefficient, akin to a flat food tax leading to spoilage and inefficiency.
Perfect competition is a straw man argument, as real-world imperfections are used to label deviations as market failures, despite evidence disproving these claims.
Bitcoin, as a decentralized currency, has the potential to be corruption-resistant money, unlike government-controlled fiat prone to manipulation.
Cryptocurrency, particularly Bitcoin, is a positive development despite current volatility, enabling online trading without government oversight.
Competing currencies were taxed out of existence during Lincoln’s regime to establish the Greenback dollar as monopoly money, with Lincoln imposing taxes on alternatives.
Deflation from the Civil War to the turn of the 20th century, despite the absence of a central bank, resulted from the gold standard and technological advancements, which should be happening today but is prevented by the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.
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