Betting markets predict an 80% chance of recession in 2025 if Cala wins, but only 18% if Trump wins, suggesting Trump’s policies could significantly impact economic outcomes.
Trump’s proposed 2025 tax bill could include no tax on tips, overtime, or social security, potentially replacing income tax with tariffs, mirroring the US tax system from 100 years ago.
The Federal Reserve’s “Central Bank Independence” is largely a myth, as it responds more to Congress and the bureaucratic state than to elected officials.
A “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” is being seriously considered by the Trump administration, potentially including regulatory clarification and a Bitcoin treasury.
Gold prices are expected to rise in 2025 due to inflation reaching 3-3.5% under Trump’s growth policies, with silver likely following a similar trajectory.
AI and robotics are identified as surprise asset classes for 2025, with Tesla positioned as a market leader in this space.
Economic nationalism and tariffs are viewed negatively, but deregulation is seen as more important for drawing manufacturing back to the US.
Canada’s economy is highly dependent on the US, with 25% of Canada’s GDP exported to the US, making significant changes in their relationship unlikely.
Trump’s economic policies are expected to lead to a stronger dollar, with tariffs and American growth attracting overseas investment.
While AI is considered a significant investment opportunity, AI stocks like Nvidia are deemed overpriced and not suitable for conservative investments or family money.
The current credit bubble is the largest in history, being dollar-based and global, and its burst will impact equities, derivatives, and property, making it particularly challenging for emerging economies and countries dependent on property ownership.
Interest rates are not tools for managing the economy, but rather compensation for holding currency expected to lose purchasing power, and central banks’ misuse of rates has led to their failure in economic management.
The Federal Reserve will attempt to rescue the economy by reducing interest rates when the credit bubble pops, but this action will trash the currency and undermine dollar cash, placing the Fed in a difficult position.
Central banks are buying gold to dump dollars, demonstrating their understanding of the difference between money without counterparty risk and currency with counterparty risk.
The current gold-silver ratio of nearly 90 is mispriced, as silver is not valued as real money in our lifetimes, but a potential squeeze on silver could be triggered by a rise in gold prices.
The silver market is drastically undersupplied with a significant deficit, but this isn’t reflected in current prices; a catalyst for recognition could be when gold starts rising rapidly.
Trump’s policies are not expected to reduce the US budget deficit, which is over 8% of GDP, leading to higher interest rates and inflation.
Tariffs imposed by Trump will contribute to inflation, as they are paid by US consumers, and will drive up interest rates, creating a challenging environment for credit.
Patience is crucial in the gold and silver space, as silver is likely to catch up rapidly when gold starts rising and hitting new high ground, potentially causing the gold-silver ratio to drop from nearly 90 to 80 or even 70.
Understanding the connection between tariffs, interest rates, and purchasing power is essential for investors during the upcoming credit bubble.
Investors should consider reducing exposure to credit due to its inherently inflationary nature and its impact on the dollar’s purchasing power.
Central banks are considering revaluing gold to $142,000/oz to offset liabilities and create financial options, as proposed by Senator Lumis and Andy Schectman.
Poland’s Central Bank, led by Adam Ginsky, is aggressively buying gold to represent 20% of their GDP as preparation for a potential digital financial system collapse.
The BIS Innovation Hub developed Embridge, a cross-border payment system, but pulled out due to sanctions concerns, potentially crystallizing desire for a common settlement currency.
The US Federal Reserve is testing cross-border payment systems like Project Agora and Project Cedar, with a CBDC under development to move towards a digital currency.
The silver market is described as a “powder keg waiting to blow”, with commercial banks holding the largest concentrated short position in any commodity ever traded.
Silver’s strategic importance is reflected in its use in military and industrial applications, with countries like China, India, and Russia accumulating it as a strategic asset.
Andy Schectman recommends buying physical silver as the best way to play the market, along with undervalued silver mining shares and royalty companies like Silver Wheaton.
The Shanghai Metals Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange combined volume surpasses COMEX, making it the second most heavily traded platform for gold globally.
The current market is described as “wickedly overvalued” and “dangerous” for a potential “rug pull”, with more selling than buying by the public.
Revaluing gold to $142,000 an ounce could be a realistic solution to the global debt crisis, as central banks rapidly increase their gold reserves.
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