The stock market is in a stage 3 correction, with the QQQ testing the 150-day moving average, signaling a potential bear market and the need to consider moving to bonds or other assets.
NASDAQ is experiencing a short-term downtrend with distribution selling, while the S&P500 may be due for a bounce and rally, creating mixed signals in the market.
Crude oil is bearish, potentially falling to $45 or lower, with demand slowing and investors betting on decreased consumption.
Gold is primed for a bullish surge, with a projected measured move to $2700-2800 in the next year or two, before potentially declining in a financial reset.
The GDX (Gold Miners ETF) is in a 13-year pattern with a potential measured move to $45-50, possibly squeezing into the low 50s if the precious metal space experiences a final push.
Taiwan’s status is part of an unfinished Civil War between the Republic of China (ROC) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), with the ROC aiming to defend its position until resolution through non-military means.
The PRC’s approach to Taiwan is based on defending territorial integrity rather than invasion, with a newfound capability to rapidly establish a defensive cordon around the island.
The US has historically viewed Taiwan as a launching pad for its ambitions in China or a bulwark against communist China, with a spiritual warfare purpose linked to American Protestant missionaries converting key Chinese leaders.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has secured infrastructure deals with the majority of Muslim countries and is investing in the global South to address demographic challenges and tap into younger labor forces.
China’s dramatic expansion of high-tech manufacturing has led to an era of abundance, shifting global pricing dynamics for products like electric vehicles, solar plants, and batteries.
China’s hypersonic technologies enable it to threaten areas beyond Taiwan’s first island chain, while its industrial capacity to produce high-volume, high-tech missiles overwhelms US air and sea defenses.
China’s automation is intensifying dramatically, with 5G networks enabling complex machine instructions to address labor shortages and boost productivity.
The financialization of healthcare in the US, making up 18% of GDP compared to a global average of 10%, exemplifies how financialization can create a GDP effect not correlated with industry performance.
China’s digital economy is critical for its development, with blockchain becoming a key infrastructure piece by 2019, despite its Libertarian roots in the US.
China’s One China policy has evolved from addressing food supply risks to investing in education and training, developing a highly capable workforce for non-repetitive cognitive and manual roles.
Kazatomprom’s 9-year low inventory of 6-7 months of attributable production, falling below the threshold for the first time since 2016, signals a significant supply shortage in the uranium market.
75% of Kazatomprom’s Q2 2023 revenues came from China, while both China and Russia approved 11 new reactors each, indicating strong uranium demand and nuclear growth.
Kazatomprom’s 20% production cut, coupled with infrastructure delays and sulfuric acid shortages, is exacerbating the uranium supply shortage, potentially leading to panic buying by utilities.
India plans to increase its nuclear capacity by 10x by 1947, but currently produces less than 1% of global uranium supply, highlighting a significant future demand increase.
The AI Revolution faces a major challenge with data centers’ power consumption, creating an opportunity for sustainable, zero-carbon nuclear power to meet this demand.
EMX Royalty’s 3 main pillars of royalty generation, prospect generation, and providing capital have led to a 20+ year track record of allocating capital astutely across these areas.
EMX has achieved a 14% compounded annual growth rate since raising money at $0.15/share, now trading at $1.70, outperforming the S&P 500 and many junior resource companies.
Sovereign Metals’ Casa rutile deposit in Malawi is the world’s largest, expected to generate $400M/yr over a 25-year life of mine, utilizing only 30% of known resources.
The project aims to produce 220,000 tons of rutile and 240,000 tons of graphite annually, with strategic value in light of China’s national security curbs on graphite exports.
The project will create 1100 local jobs and has implemented a conservation farming program that increased maize yields by over 350%, aiming to provide food security for the local community.
Sovereign Metals’ market cap of $365M represents a 90% discount to its $1.7B NPV 8, with a post-tax IRR of almost 30%, presenting a significant investment opportunity.
Rio Tinto holds a 19.9% stake in Sovereign Metals with the option to become the project’s operator, demonstrating strong industry interest and potential.
The project’s definitive feasibility study, due by the end of 2023, will determine the optimal scale of operation, starting with 12 million tons of run-of-mine ore in the first 5 years, scaling to 24 million tons in year 6.
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