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Europe Takes the Other Road

On its long journey to the land of bankruptcy, the Western world recently arrived at the last and most important crossroad. One branch led to a 1930s-style collapse under the weight of already-accumulated debt, while the other led to hyperinflation, as printing presses ramp up to stave off collapse.

The U.S. didn’t even slow down; it instantly veered down Inflation Lane and has spent the past couple of years nationalizing everything in sight with newly created paper. Europe, on the other hand, has been vacillating. After keeping the U.S. company for a while, it got a little glimpse of what lies ahead: loss of confidence in the currency that’s being inflated away — and career change for the responsible politicians. With a plunging euro and pound threatening to make future borrowing prohibitively expensive, they’ve headed back to the crossroad and taken the other path, and are now cutting spending and raising taxes in an attempt to restore confidence in their currencies. See:

ECB’s Noyer Says French Deficit Targets Realistic

European Central Bank board member Christian Noyer on Sunday said France’s aim to bring its budget deficit down to 3 percent from 8 percent of GDP by 2013 was realistic.

Noyer was echoing a similar pledge by Prime Minister Francois Fillon at the weekend who said France planned to cut its deficit by 100 billion euros over the next three years, in part by slashing expenditures and eliminating tax exemptions.

Europe embraces the cult of austerity – but at what cost?

Eurozone finance ministers were still committed to spending their way to recovery only a few months ago. Then came the Greek debt crisis, which threatened to engulf the continent. Despite warnings from the US, Britain and its EU neighbours are braced for unprecedented public sector cuts

So the questions become:

Is it too late to stave off the collapse of systems burdened by debts and public pension obligations that dwarf the economies themselves?

Will the voters who lose benefits or pay higher taxes under the new austerity plans put up with it?

Will the slowdown that inevitably results from sucking 5%-8% of GDP out of the public sector lead panicked European governments to cut across the nearest open field to catch up with the U.S.?

Based on how much these guys owe and the immensity of their future obligations, it’s a near-certainty that all three questions will be answered in chaotic, unpleasant ways. Which illustrates the key truth of the modern world: When you borrow too much money your life becomes unmanageable and your choices unpalatable.

25 thoughts on "Europe Takes the Other Road"

  1. The problem really is Danny, that although I was gifted with an enormous imagination, the following 2 images from “the world according to the deflationist anti-goldbug”, are just too much for me.
    1. After the supposed supernova deflationary crash: “Oohh Mr. Bernanke, please don’t print a $10 bill, you might own the world with it!!!”. What was real however, was the fact that during the 30’s, some communities used “home-grown” money, and their economies boomed. Of course the government quickly swooped in and forbade it.
    2. “A nail is sticking out of that 2*4. Hand me my gold bar, and I’ll give it an extra whack. Don’t want to scratch that nail unnecessarily”.

    You hold on to those coloured pieces of paper promisses for nothing my friend, but I’ll hold on to what the peoples over the world have known for thousands of years.

  2. Deflationary recessions have happened with HARD currencies.

    Please name a country who has had a deflationary recession that happened with FIAT currency.

    Did that country owe several times GDP when the incident happened?
    How long did it last and how severe was it?
    When it ended did it end with significant inflation?

    I propose that no government with control of the printing press (FIAT currency) has ever said “Oh my, we don’t have enough money to pay the bills… I know lets not print anymore”.

  3. Danny,

    I bought the bulk of my gold in 2003 in the form of 1 ounce Maple Leaf coins. At the time of purchase the USD was $1.37 to the Loonie and gold was about $350 per ounce. I have since added to the position, though I haven’t paid over $1000 per ounce but have not enjoyed the dumb luck of my initial timing.

    Honestly, that timing occurred because mostly me with my bride of 25 consecutive years agreement determined gold had a better future than the second choice, which was real estate.

    Just want you to know that it’s okay you think I’m beyond nuts 😉

    Frankly, the deflationary argument doesn’t preclude hyperinflation from occurring. Bruce C., has the chronology right, deflation before hyperinflation. In Bernanke I Trust!

  4. Hello Guys,

    I’m Dutch “European”, meaning there is no 1 European. Before the Euro, Holland and Germany had a very hard fiscal regime, leading to a hard currency. I would say many Dutch are hopelessly statists and socialists. They happily pay so much taxes, levies and VAT to an extent that 80% of their income goes to the government (to be quickly interchanged with us/we), expecting to be taken care of, and the money to be doled out to the “correct” groups (The Dutch don’t want poor people to come and take it). Entering the Euro (the Dutch ideological sentiment being: “we are world citizens”), the Dutch people imagined that everything must be the same around Europe, so what could go wrong? and the government is daddy, and the European government is big daddy.

    Anyway, concerning inflation/deflation and Elliot waves and whatnot. Since I didn’t see Mugabe losing sleep over worries about a deflationary collapse, I wouldn’t know why I should. Even though Elliot waves and deflationary collapses are mathematically possible, I think they are held by contrarians, who found some scientific sauce to splash over it. The reality is that for instance the US government wasn’t shy about contracting tens of trillions in debt, so why would it suddenly become shy about quadrillions?

    I have studied among many things mathematics. Children these days can tell you what 10^3 is, but have no clue what the volume is of a perfect box with ribs of 10cm. If I tell anybody that stars are 10 million miles away or 10 billion, nobody corrects me either way. Meaning, ten trillion debt or ten quadrillion means nothing much in the way of a difference.

    This boils down to me hedging against inflation, because that is the way of the world. And gold hedges against both, and is the ultimate black savings. Judging by the austerity measures, but much more so because of demographics and aging population, ready to get rid of houses etc, I think Europe will see some deflation in the near future in housing, followed by inflation in the coming 10 years.

  5. Danny,

    Frankly, I hope your right. In fact you are right at the moment, and maybe even for another 2-3 years. But that is precisely why hyper inflation could occur. The tortoise-speed monetization may ultimately beat the hare-speed credit collapse.

    I’ve learned the hard way to not underestimate the power of the FED. When Ben says he fears deflation and will do whatever is necessary to stop it I ain’t bettin’ against him. There may be a delay, but examples of the FED overshooting the mark and killing the proverbial fly with a sledge hammer are many.

    Furthermore, if deflation is so prevalent, then why has the CPI increased from being literally negative (deflationary) in 2009 to positive in 2010, even with the rise in the dollar index? As far as the Fed gov. is concerned, inflation is good (a stealth tax and politically convenient transfer of wealth) whereas deflation is all bad. A deleveraging of credit does have to occur somehow someway but the dollar can be destroyed at the same time in trying to counter it.

  6. Hyperinflationary path? What are you guys looking at? M3?

    How come you guys ignore credit? Credit has been contracting faster than they can print. Let me clarify… How easy was it for Bush and Obama to pass the bailouts? It took months. Credit is getting wiped out at a faster rate. Way faster. Do you know how many people foreclose every single day? Do you know how many homes are put on the market at 50-80% price cuts? You can easily get a sense of which one is doing the best job, the inflationary printing or the credit destruction.

    I will take the credit destruction. The credit will be taken out because it cannot be maintained. We cannot pay back. All this talk about hyperinflation is making me sleepy already, seriously.

    The EU has passed way more bailouts than the US. So to come on these boards and say that they grew a pair, while the US is still printing is irresponsible.

    I predict deflation for the next 2 to 3 years. You hyperinflationists gold bugs will keep waiting for your dollar collapse day for the next 100 years. And you think gold is about to keep you safe, don’t you? We will see how that pans out.


  7. The only problem with Prechters predictions that I can think of, is that of assuming things that can affect a chart are static, ie m3 money supply. if that changes and there is no mechanism to neutralise its effect, the results will be different.

    Things will wip saw back and forth, as one failed atempt begets another. This will be a vicious spiral downward, as taxation and authority will stiffle any growth, which will rinse and repeat until there is nothing left to take. More monetization will be the only answer, sooner or later, and of course that will be the end. The sooner the better, the suspense is hard to take.

  8. Doug (and Thrash and Robert H.),

    Thanks for your responses.

    It’s a good point that, “The question is not economic or mathematical, it is political.” and I agree that the FED/Treasury can do whatever it wants, especially when things are seemingly okay. The markets generally aren’t very imaginative so they only act on the immediate conditions or the most patently obvious. For how long now have we heard it said that “investors are concerned about QE causing inflation, but so far there is no evidence of it, so Treasuries are still popular”?

    Most of the analyses that I’ve read also expects inflation (maybe even hyper-) because most agree that that is preferable to US government default. I don’t think there will be enough economic growth/tax revenues to fund the existing national debt and future deficits, so a devaluation of the dollar is the traditional way to deal with it. Ironically, other countries will do the same thing so it could work for a while (i.e., not cause big price increases) in some crazy way. I also think that the FED will never raise its rate again. The market may demand higher long term rates, steepening the yield curve, but that’s it. That actually may turn out to be a creative way to get the government/FED out of the economy – no more finagling.

    The “good” thing (for policy makers) about inflation is that it’s stealthy. Inflation can reduce the nominal cost of SS, for example, as long as SS payments are de-coupled from the CPI. Given the ground work being laid by the media in discussing austerity measures, I can see US citizens accepting that, versus outright cuts. Similarly, Medicare payments could be frozen (not inflation-adjusted) which would slowly dismantle that system too. I think that when no one (including insurance companies) can or will pay the going medical costs, those costs will drop by necessity.

    Maybe it’s just me, but I really want to understand Prechter’s analysis because it basically rings true to me. Trouble is, I don’t agree with his mechanics. His “primary reason” for predicting a drop in the DOW below 1000 is from his Elliott wave analysis. He then tries to surmise the monetary change that would be consistent with this, so he assumes deflation will reign. Monetary deflation would also imply bond/loans/credit price deflation. Hence this key statement is: “The only monetary outcome that will make sense of the Elliott wave structure is for the market value of dollar-denominated credit to shrink by over 90 percent.” But I disagree with his assumption. Both asset values and credit values – and just about everything else – would ALSO drop in value in a hyper inflationary environment.

    Think about it, if you expect future dollars to be much lower in value next month, then the present value of a loan or bond that pays a fixed interest would have to cost much less than it’s par value. Similarly, since stocks are a claim on future earnings, how confident can you be that any real earnings can be had in a hyper inflationary price structure? Equity values would also FALL. (I’m not talking about mild mannered inflation here.)

    Furthermore, the driving impetus of such financial mass events, according to Elliot, Prechter, et al) is emotional human sentiment. The big cyclical downtrend, therefore, implies a generally depressing emotional pall for the near future. I would submit that a wild hyper inflationary monetary environment is also consistent with that state of emotion. Sorry to bum you out, but that’s how I understand it.

    Therefore, it seems to me that a hyper inflationary monetary environment is ALSO consistent with nominal reduction in equity prices (and the accompanying emotional state), which is what (and only what) Prechter’s wave analysis portends. Deflation, per se, is not necessarily predicted by Elliot waves (to my knowledge). Deflation is but one theoretical monetary accompaniment to falling equity values.

    Now, finally I get to say what I started all of this for: I think gold and silver ARE good investments now, and cash will be toast, if indeed we do experience hyper inflation.

  9. Robert,

    The government will surely change rules. During a deflationary scare, they will do bailouts and stimulus packages and during hyperinflationary scares they will impose price controls and capital controls. These things don’t work though. The great depression didn’t end until debt was liquidated and the 1970s inflation didn’t end until interest rates were raised to positive real values. They seem unwilling to do either of these, but they will eventually have to.

  10. Asking about future inflation or deflation misses the most likely outcome. The basis of finance is the contract law. It is unlikely that finance will prevail over politics. Before the state gives in to either hyperinflation or default chances are that the contract law will be changed either openly or indirectly. New laws could forcefully convert all retirement accounts (IRA and 401K) into a government managed annuity contract. The payout of these annuities would be independent of the individual owner of these accounts. Instead, congress could regulate the payout depending on the age of the annuitant. This would redefine the notion of property rights.

    More generally, the interest rate and the maturity of Treasury bonds and notes could be redefined by the US Treasury in effect avoiding national default.

    The long term trend is in favor of a steadily growing government that slowly takes over the economy. To assume either default of hyperinflation means that government will give up power without a fight. That is not very likely. Government will defend its power by redefining contract law in effect restricting the power of the financial elites.

    The ultimate reason for government budget deficits is the large number of poor people which survive thanks to government going into debt in order to finance Social Security, food stamps, unemployment benefits etc. Default or hyperinflation literally means death to these people. That is not going to happen without the government raising tax rates all the way into 90%, introducing federal property taxes etc etc.

    The ongoing campaign against BP is a good example of what will happen in the future. Within a few weeks, a AAA company with a stock market value of more than $100 billion can be forced into bankruptcy just to make sure that expectations of the voting public are not disappointed.

    Do you remember how the rights of bondholders of GM were dismissed in the interest of GM continuing its operation?

  11. The short answer to Doug & Bruce C.’s discussion is to believe or disbelieve Ben Bernanke. In March ’09 before the Senate House Finance Committees Bernanke stated the plan is to re-inflate and then deflate in an orderly manner to find a natural bottom. Bernanke postulated that the 6000+ Dow was an irrational bottom.

    At other times, Bernanke has presented himself as “Helicopter Ben” suggesting he will pour whatever liquidity is required to preserve the system.

    While I disagree with Mr. Bernanke as to policy, I’ve never found substantive reason to challenge his veracity.

  12. Bruce,

    The FED seems to be playing a very short-term game. When inflation is getting too bad (like when oil was up to $140) they will raise interest rates and put an end to the inflation (like when oil went back to $35). At that point they will bail out everyone and keep interest rates at 0%. This leads to inflationary pressures (like when oil went back to $70).

    There will eventually come to a point when oil is over $100 a barrel and unemployment is over 10%. That will be the point when the deflation / inflation decision will be made. Do they print money and keep the government running, or do they raise interest rates and stop the inflation?

    The question is not economic or mathematical, it is political. Anyone who says that inflation or deflation is inevitable and the FED is powerless to stop it, is wrong. They could print a quadrillion dollars and give it to the government to spend. They could also raise interest rates to 50% and ensure deflation.

    What do you see happening when unemployment and commodity prices are both high? In 1980 Volcker raised interest rates to very high levels and caused a bad double dip recession. Because we already have so much debt, a similar move would be cataclysmic.

    I would bet on a hyperinflation outcome because we are the world’s biggest debtor and the debt is denominated in our own currency. As crazy as seeing gas go from $3 a gallon to $30 to $300 seems, it seems less crazy than congress sitting by while welfare checks bounce and pensions go bankrupt.

    I think that China’s real estate bust is real and I think the U.S. commercial real estate bust is real. This could push down real estate and commodities over the next few years. But banks, pension plans, bank account holders, local governments, state government, and countries will get freshly created dollars to stay solvent until we reach the inflation / deflation decision point around mid-decade. After that, you will see some crazy stuff.

    How do you think it will play out?

  13. “There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The question is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
    Ludwig von Mises

    Perhaps Europe has chosen the former. The U.S. has chosen the latter.

  14. “It’s a tough call, but I’m gonna predict multiple national defaults.”

    Those kind of calls are indeed tough B.C., but unforunately you are sooooo correct. And let’s not forget that the original cheerleaders of the mortgage fiasco were all politicians who for years have mirrored themselves as being smarter than that.

    When the 1’s and 0’s come crashing to the floor…they will be replaced with a tweaked up version of imaginary wealth controlled by a select few powers. The only real commodity left is people working and if there isn’t anything left to work for, the elitists are left powerless. The “S” word is just a benign means of control. And here in the good ole USA, there are just too many of us out of control by means of wealth, whether it be fiat or not, that’s irrelevant. Just sign on the dotted line…that is if you wish to continue eating.

  15. Hi Doug,

    From the reading of your last few posts you seem to be interested, as am I, in understanding what is developing economically to position yourself accordingly. If you don’t mind, I’d like to know your opinion on a few questions I have.

    I think I understand the inflation/hyperinflation scenario: Fiat currency continues to be generated by the central reserve banks to reflate asset values and counter credit contraction/destruction, which causes monetary imbalances and probably overshoots thus greatly devaluing the currency. Therefore, god/silver should maintain (if not increase) its buying power and rise in dollar terms, interest rates would rise, and commodities, real estate, and equities would do okay. Bonds and especially cash, however, would decrease in value (i.e., a currency crisis).

    I also basically understand the deflation scenario, but I get stuck on some of the details: The central banks fail – or choose to stop trying – to reflate the system and asset values fall and credit lines decrease. The money supply decreases due to credit withdrawals and debt payments, and the currency increases in value (buying power).

    Obviously, the deflation scenario is just the opposite of a “dollar collapse” and currency crisis. I’m most familiar with Prechter’s view that all assets, including gold and silver, will fall in value (so they are not good to buy now) and that cash is king. Interest rates will rise and bonds will fall, along with real estate, equities, and everything else. So, one should raise as much cash as possible and put it into Treasury money market accounts, then kick back and watch the show.

    I asked Prechter for clarification about his prediction for the DOW to fall below 1000, and this is what he wrote:

    “The primary reason I believe the Dow is going to fall that far is its Elliott wave structure, which calls for it. But I can also see a monetary reason for this event. The tremendous inflation of the past 76 years has occurred primarily by way of instruments of credit, not banknotes. Credit can implode. The only monetary outcome that will make sense of the Elliott wave structure is for the market value of dollar-denominated credit to shrink by over 90 percent. Given the eroded state of capital goods in the U.S. and the depletion of manufacturing capacity, it is not hard to see why all these IOUs have a deteriorating basis of repayment. The future has already been fully mortgaged; it’s time to pay. But there is no money to pay, only more IOUs, which cannot be paid, either.”

    “So the credit supply (after a brief respite) will continue to shrink, which means that wealth, and therefore purchasing power, will disappear along with it. In the broadest sense, this change will constitute a collapse in the ‘money supply.’ Such a monetary background would be consistent with the Dow falling below 1000 in nominal terms. It is one of the reasons that Conquer the Crash is subtitled How to Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression. To be sure, the central bank does have the capacity to print banknotes. But I expect that the final implosion in credit value will be so swift that the authorities will not act in time to counter it. They will continue to try to maintain the fictions of full face value for IOUs until they fail spectacularly to keep up the scam. Then they will start to scramble, but it will be too late.”

    But, here are the things I don’t understand about this scenario. Even if the “the authorities fail to act in time to counter” the swift implosion of credit, why couldn’t they reflate, or literally replace dollars, after the fact? And, more specifically, why would gold/silver fall in value? It seems to me that for either case (inflation or deflation) economic fear and uncertainty would reign which would imply that gold/silver would be most valuable. Similarly, I can’t see the dollar smelling like a rose during all of this either. Fiat currency (i.e., “money” creation via credit creation) is what caused the predicament, so why would the dollar survive? If all other fiat currencies have eventually failed, why wouldn’t those involved in the biggest and most pervasive financial crisis in world history fail too?

    I asked Prechter about this too. I asked, “Since gold is real money why wouldn’t it hold its buying power (along with dollars) in the deflationary period that you predict?”

    His answer (which actually came from a protégé) was interesting:
    “Because gold is not the form of money which is owed. Dollars are owed, and credit is what will deflate. Real money goes up during inflation, right? It will go down in deflation.”

    About 45% of the world’s debt is in dollars, but so what?

    What do you think?

  16. Hi Daniel (and Thrash),

    Yes, it’s true that I don’t want to argue semantics, but I can’t help it.

    By “socialist” I mean the mentality that thinks “charity” should be institutionailzed and required by all citizens.

    I know virtually nothing about Sweden and Norway so I’ll not speculate, but I will check them out.

    In any case, I do think that the current financial crises are caused by excessive government borrowing, spending, and unfunded liabilities. I guess you could argue that military spending is a waste (presumably a “neo-con” priority) along with crony capitalism, and unionism (presumably “new labour stuff”), but anything not based on free/transparent markets, property rights, and individual liberties is by definition “collectivist”, a euphemism for the the “S” word.

    Call it what you will, but when a government can’t get any more OPM to support its budget agendas and obligations then the party ends.

  17. C’mon kids, time to put the long pants on and move past the silly name calling.

    Fact is, many of inappropiately named social democracies have advanced social safety nets due for no other reason than the protection afforded by the USA’s military.

    We would be no different if we didn’t assume the burden of defending our allies.

  18. “On the one hand they (Europeans) seem hopelessly socialistic”

    All about clichés …

    This kind of condemnation is worthless. On historical and moral grounds alike. Amoung the few countries that still could (I did not say will) escape the current monetary crash, most are socialistic. From Scandinavia to Netherlands not forgetting Germany, the track record of those socialist countries is among the most decent on the planet.

    Please go over and check.

    Most polluted deficit defending stuff is not to be found in socialist countries. What is currently destroying the international monetary system is certainly not “social-democracy” but the consumerist brands of both neo-con and new-Labour stuffs!

    Whether Zapatero, Blair or a few others anyone can name, these guy did not nurture anything like socialistics views.

    Neither would I count Bush or Berlusconi among the decent conservateurs anyway. This is a species long gone with the wind.

  19. We lost our pair so we can’t grow a pair. Elections will be a joke, it will be inflation full speed ahead or inflation by backing off the throttle a 1/2 inch. Americans are still sleeping.

  20. The projected deficit reductions in Europe are based on bogus GDP (and other) expectations. Europe passed the threshold of inevitable debt-driven collapse some time ago, and so did the U.S. Both political-economies are simply postponing the inevitable by shifting debt from hand to hand, and the longer they postpone the Crash the more intense and extended it will be. In the largest sense, this is all good: we need systemic (economic + political) collapse. The subsequent Time of Troubles will clear out all sorts of institutional and human deadwood.

  21. The inflation or debt monetization vs. austerity is really two sides of the same coin.

    JR frames the question thus, “Will the voters who lose benefits or pay higher taxes under the new austerity plans put up with it?”

    Here in the States, we might ask, “Will the voters who lose pension benefits and pay higher taxes under the new inflation put up with it.”

    IMHO this is the key question. The best I can offer is to refer back to Alexis de Toqueville, “The great American experiment with democracy will work so long until the People find out they can raid the treasury.”

    Historically such matters are resolved by war and the current big dog is replaced by a new big dog. I’m not so sure that will be the outcome this time. There is some cause for hope that mankind generally is becoming somewhat smarter with time.

    Also, it seems wiser heads are prevailing in that why go to war if our competitors are dumb enough to finance our prosperity absent conflict? By this reference, I’m including China, alongside the USA and Europe in triad of economic powers.

    The lesson that the Chinese and Europeans seem not to have learned as yet is that money owes no allegiance to flag. From my perspective this is the nature of the genuine conflict between corporate governance and public governance.

    People are angry but not quite sure on where to focus of their anger. This lack of focus is momentary. People, as the Greeks did, will rebel and demonstrate against institutions public and private. As there is no longer any meaningful difference.

  22. Unless European countries actually start paying down debt or defaulting, they are still on the hyperinflationary path. They are following the U.S., but they just keep talking about turning around. Remember when Germany wasn’t going to bail out Greece than they did anyway? Remember when Europe had a rule that countries couldn’t run deficits greater than 3% of GDP and they did anyway. All this talk of austerity isn’t even news worthy. If it was, the Euro would be taking off and the dollar would be collapsing.

  23. I have yet to understand the mindset of the European citizens so I can only speculate.

    On the one hand they seem hopelessly socialistic, but then once in a while evidence suggests that some semblance of progress may be at hand, but then sometimes they capitulate (See ECB’s “no-bonds-no-way” Trichet.)

    In reading about Greece, people who claim to know say that the Greek citizens will not suffer austerity measures just to stay in the EU and use the Euro. Government default is fairly normal for them (I think Greece has done it around a hundred times in the last 2500 years or so) so national guilt or shame is no incentive for them to go without.

    Furthermore, if some of the lawyers who cheerleaded the mortgage default strategy in the US get microphones over there then we’ll soon be hearing that national defaults “just make good financial sense.” (Afterall, the bond holders knew the risks. Besides, it’s only money – I mean, fiat currency. Etc.)

    It’s a tough call, but I’m gonna predict multiple national defaults.

  24. Looks like the Europeans grew a pair. Maybe it will force the US to take it’s medicine too, maybe.

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