“We maintain our view that the economy is headed for a soft landing.”
— Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Dec. 13, 2023
Written by Bryan Lutz, Editor at Dollarcollapse.com:
If you’ve had the luxury of flying in a small eight person float plane over coastal sea waters then you recognize the anticipation of meeting pontoons to water.
The landing is either soft or hard.
It is also best to expect sudden lift or soft, or sideways gusto of wind pushing the small tin structure wherever it wills.
That is what happens as you make your descent into Coal Harbour, a small portion of water off the Burrard Inlet, adjacent to Deadman’s Island, home of His Majesty’s HMCS Discovery Naval Reserve in Vancouver, Canada.
For my wife and I, landing on water makes us feel more anxious than land.
As one gets closer to the water, the less movement the better.
The LESS volatility the BETTER.
Unfortunately, financial industry jobs this past year has had more up and down movement than wanted.
According to the Financial Times, employment in twenty of the world’s largest banks cut a total of 61,905 jobs.
Then a look back at 2007-08, there was a total of about 140,000 job cuts.
Coming into 2024, that’s what we have to compare too.
Yet, we our Pilot, Powell pleased to announce our soft descent to normal in 2024.
CBS News reports:
Economists now predict the U.S. is heading for a “soft landing.” Here’s what that means.
“The Federal Reserve sounded cautiously optimistic on Wednesday, with Chair Jerome Powell saying he was “pleased with the progress” in the battle against inflation and the Fed’s goal of keeping full employment…
In a soft landing, the unemployment rate might rise, but the incline would be far from the extremes experienced in the Great Recession, when the jobless rate jumped from 5% to 10%.
Right now, the Fed is forecasting that the jobless rate will inch up to 4.1% for 2024 and 2025, slightly higher than its current rate of 3.7%.”
If we assume unemployment surveys are accurate, (which they are not, many companies are hiring part-timers with more people willing to work two or more) overall the numbers may look good.
But as you look at the financial sector, it may tell a different story. Especially in a highly financialized economy like the United States.
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing takes up over 20% of the US economies GDP, which means it’s an important sector the economy as a whole. Indicating the potential for more volatility in the next year.
So it seems a soft landing in the US economies most valuable, non-producing sector is most unlikely.
Job openings for financial activities have seen the most volatility in the last 25 years from May 2022 to 2023.
At least, compared to massive job cuts when, “700,000 people lost their jobs each month from October 2008 to April 2009, according to Brookings.”
That was across the board.
While job cuts in financial activities can look tricky.
People lose their jobs, mergers and acquisitions happen, consolidations occur, and then there’s the accounting to cover the transfer of debt and bankruptcies.
There’s hiring and there’s cutting…
Someone has to close the books, so banks need to hire.
And someone needs to the fat, so jobs get slashed.
2022 – 2023 has shown the most volatile decline in job openings for financial activities in the past twenty-five years.
You can report the landing like it’s coming down soft if you want to. Take a bunch of averages, toy with a few of them and the stats read “overall” we’re doing great.
Overall, financial sectors are more volatile and vulnerable than they’ve been in the past twenty-five years.
If there is going to be a soft landing coming up, we wouldn’t see so much volatility, especially in a supposedly stable financial system.
Instead, what we will see in 2024, are bigger bumps all the way to the bottom.
Which means, as we descend to the bottom, the closer we get to hitting the bottom…
And when you hit, somethings breaks… hard.
