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Top Ten Videos – August 6, 2023

Neil Howe: Crisis Looms Now That The Fourth Turning Is Here
Wealthion ... (From August 4)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Generational Archetypes and Historical Patterns

  • History unfolds in cycles, with civilizations and societies going through predictable patterns of boom, bust, and renewal, as outlined in the book “The Fourth Turning.”
  • The naming of the Millennial generation in the late 1980s by Neil Howe and Bill Strauss showcases their foresight in predicting the impact and significance of this generation in shaping the future.
  • The alternation between inner world (values, religion, art) and outer world (politics, economics, infrastructure) reconstruction leads to different generational archetypes and their unique experiences in history.
  • Neil Howe’s book, written in 1997, has largely played out as predicted, validating his insights on the unfolding of the fourth turning.
  • Neil Howe believes that each generation has turned out very close to what was originally foreseen, with the boomer generation being principled and uncompromising.
  • Millennials are a generation that values community and doing things together, as they are obsessed with group activities and fear missing out.
  • “It’s like musical chairs. Right. I mean people have to leave so other people can move up and be decision makers and of course that speeds up the pace of history.”

The Impact and Significance of the Fourth Turning

  • The Fourth Turning is a significant and imminent crisis that we are currently experiencing, and there is much more to explore and understand about its stages and impact.
  • The speaker highlights the contrast between the “stupid era” of buying houses and the potential changes that may occur in the mid to late 2030s, implying a looming crisis or transformation.
  • “Fourth turnings is really where the status quo falls apart and is then replaced by the new seculum.”
  • All of our fourth turnings in history have been marked by total wars, both internal and external conflicts.
  • History shows that major decisions, such as framing new constitutions, are often made during dark and challenging times, when the future is uncertain and the stakes are high.
  • Historical processes, including generational rhythms, only move forward and cannot be reversed, requiring a crisis to transition from one turning to another.

Economic and Societal Transformations

  • The current economy for young adults has more similarities to the economy of the 1700s than the economy of the 1900s or 1950s.
  • The transformation in technology and lifestyle from the late 1880s to the time of Eisenhower’s presidency, including the advent of telephones and airplanes, showcases the rapid pace of change and progress in society.
  • “It’s very important how we navigate through this dangerous time, but coming out of crises like this is when we undertake our largest infrastructure growth, as we did after World War II.”
  • “Inflation is a means by which governments recapture the real value of their debt, and combined with financial repression, it forces individuals to accept a rate of return far beneath the rate of inflation, making investing in real assets crucial.”

Gareth Soloway- No soft landing, gold to all-time-high in 2023, BTC to 15k, but this commodity will soar - Soloway
Kitco NEWS ... (From August 2)

Soloway- “Gold will reach an all-time high in 2023, Bitcoin will drop to $15k, and a particular commodity will soar…”

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • The Chinese economy is experiencing a major crash, and the impact is expected to reach the United States.
  • China’s risk of prolonged falling prices could have a detrimental effect on global economies, impacting corporate profits, consumer spending, and employment.
  • Deflation can have serious repercussions for the rest of the world, particularly on corporate profits.
  • The combination of job loss, increased prices, and higher debt levels leads to less money available for discretionary spending, impacting both the economy and inflation.
  • The model used in the CTA reports identified a quadruple bottom pattern and triggered a trade with over a two percent upside potential, proving its worth as a trading tool.
  • China’s increasing mortgage easing measures in big cities suggest a growing panic and attempt to stimulate the economy amidst signs of deflation.
  • The negative year-on-year rate change in new loans signifies a potential all-out panic, as it indicates a decrease in the creation of new money and a higher rate of loan repayment.
  • “What’s happening in China is coming to the U.S in not too distant future.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Gold will reach an all-time high in 2023, Bitcoin will drop to 15k, and a particular commodity will soar, while the US economy’s strong job market, stock market, and GDP growth are misleading due to lower imports artificially raising GDP and creating a false narrative of rapid expansion, and there are mixed signals from analysts about the probability of a US recession.
    • The US economy has defied predictions of a recession with a strong job market, stock market, GDP, and lower inflation, but Gareth Solway predicts a lack of a soft landing, with gold reaching an all-time high in 2023, Bitcoin dropping to 15k, and a particular commodity soaring.
    • GDP growth may appear positive, but it is misleading due to the fact that lower imports artificially raise GDP, creating a false narrative of rapid expansion.
    • A drop in imports suggests that more goods are being produced in the US, but other economic indicators such as consumer confidence show that higher-income individuals, who have more exposure to the stock market, have higher confidence levels compared to lower-income individuals.
    • The strong employment front is keeping the stock market up, but there may be a deluge of layoffs coming once the recession hits, and the AI boom will also lead to some layoffs.
    • Inflation can be reduced without significant job losses, as indicated by the strong employment picture, but there are mixed signals from analysts with Goldman Sachs economists lowering the probability of a US recession to 20% while Fannie Mae analysts predict a modest recession in the near future, and the data shows a depletion of household savings, making a soft landing unlikely.
    • Housing costs and consumer debt are increasing, with the average car payment and cost of housing significantly higher than in 2008, indicating a strapped consumer, while food and energy prices are also rising, and there is speculation in the market with high forward PEG ratios.
  • 08:10 Bonds are less attractive as yields rise, leading to speculation in stocks; the correlation between bond yields and the S&P 500 suggests potential market trends, but a soft landing is unlikely as the Federal Reserve tends to overreact to lagging data.
    • Bonds are becoming less attractive to average investors as they now pay higher yields, leading to increased speculation in stocks.
    • The correlation between the average corporate bond yield minus fed funds rate and the S&P 500 suggests that major corrective moves in the stock market coincide with specific ranges, indicating potential future market trends.
    • The Federal Reserve has never achieved a soft landing in the past, and with the current economic situation, it is unlikely to happen this time; they tend to react to lagging data and overcompensate.
  • 10:44 The Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates and print money may be hindered by increasing oil and gasoline prices, leading to concerns about inflation and potential recession, while gold is predicted to reach an all-time high in 2023 and Bitcoin to reach $15k.
    • Jerome Powell’s statement that there won’t be a recession is a red flag, as the Fed’s comments should be taken with caution, and the government’s data on cooling inflation is not sustainable, which will hinder the Fed’s ability to cut interest rates.
    • Looking at the data, oil and gasoline prices have increased, causing concern about inflation and the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates and print money.
    • Gold is predicted to reach an all-time high in 2023, Bitcoin to reach $15k, and the Invesco DB agriculture fund shows a significant increase, making it difficult for the FED to avoid raising rates.
    • Soloway predicts that there will be minimal rate hikes and the market will rely on the FED to save them, but there is concern that increasing rates may lead to higher oil prices and a potential recession, which has not yet occurred as expected.
    • Excess savings from COVID and the lag effect of interest rate policy have contributed to the prolonged positive economic period.
    • Analysts predicted a bad first half, causing a catch-up in the stock market as fund managers and retail investors adjusted their portfolios, leading to a sense of FOMO and a surge in stock prices.
  • 17:49 A significant pullback in the S&P 500 is predicted by the end of the year, with a potential decline in earnings growth and high valuations leading to a 25% drop in 2024; sentiment and psychology are driving the market, resembling the dot com bubble, and Microsoft may have already reached its peak for this bull cycle.
    • Soloway predicts a significant pullback in the S&P 500 by the end of the year, with a target range of around 3,900, and expects a 25% drop from recent highs in 2024 due to high valuations and a potential decline in earnings growth.
    • 82 percent of companies have beaten earnings expectations, but their price action after earnings suggests a bigger picture related to sentiment and psychology driving the market.
    • Microsoft’s stock experienced a sell-off despite beating earnings and metrics, and the speaker suggests that the current market trend may resemble the dot com bubble, raising the possibility that Microsoft has already reached its peak for this bull cycle.
    • Microsoft, part of the Magnificent Seven stocks, has driven the latest bull market, but only those stocks that have not reached their all-time highs, like Google and Netflix, have seen significant rallies.
    • Apple’s stock may experience a sell-off before earnings due to a slowdown in chip production, despite investors ignoring this information.
  • 23:01 Investors should consider going long on AMD and short on Nvidia, as Nvidia’s high valuation may be a warning sign, while the Magnificent Seven stocks have likely peaked and investors should be cautious of FOMO and greed in the market; the speaker is more bullish on stocks than on bonds and suggests exposure to foreign markets, particularly Brazil, due to potential breakouts; concerns are expressed about the banking sector, Bitcoin’s future value, and the impact of defaults on real estate.
    • Nvidia’s strong performance may be a warning sign as it is trading at a high multiple, and the speaker suggests a potential trading opportunity of going long on AMD and short on Nvidia.
    • Majority of the Magnificent Seven stocks, including Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, have likely peaked according to the charts, and while the macro data should be closely monitored, the speaker is more bullish on stocks than on bonds due to the higher exposure to the stock market.
    • Investors are driven by FOMO and greed, choosing higher-risk investments despite the opportunity for safe investments with decent yields, which is a warning sign in the market.
    • Investors should consider having exposure to foreign markets, particularly Brazil, due to the potential breakout in the Brazilian stock market and the trend of emerging markets trading in their own currencies.
    • Soloway expresses concern about the banking sector, particularly regarding the commercial real estate and corporate debt, as well as the potential impact on residential real estate if defaults occur.
    • Bitcoin has seen a significant rise in value due to concerns about traditional finance, but the speaker predicts a potential significant drop in the future despite passing regulatory hurdles.
  • 30:55 Bitcoin’s price may drop due to liquidity issues and stock market decline, but it could rebound; Gold is predicted to reach all-time highs in 2023 due to increasing US debt and a weakening dollar.
    • Bitcoin’s price may drop to 15,700 or lower if there is a liquidity issue and the stock market declines by 20 or 30 percent, with the potential for further decline if it breaks the trend line at 27,000.
    • Bitcoin’s price could potentially drop to as low as $9,000-$10,000 before rebounding, as its correlation with the NASDAQ has reduced due to decreased interest in Bitcoin and increased interest in stocks.
    • Bitcoin is not yet considered digital gold due to the emotional nature of the crypto industry, but the launch of the BlackRock spot ETF and potential downside in the stock market could lead to a big correction in the equity market and Bitcoin, creating the bottom for the next bull run.
    • Gold is predicted to reach an all-time high in 2023, with a potential value of at least $150,000, as the speaker believes that the Federal Reserve will be compelled to print more money due to the increasing US debt.
    • Printing more money is the golden ticket for Bitcoin, while gold is not the top performing asset but has a breakout short term trend.
    • Gold is expected to reach all-time highs by the end of the year due to a weakening US dollar, potential recession, and elevated inflation, while Bitcoin and the S&P’s performance will also play a role in determining gold’s success.
  • 37:37 Uranium is expected to soar in price due to a long wedge pattern on the chart, increasing demand for alternative energy sources, political strife in Niger, and the global push for sustainable energy, potentially resulting in a 50% upside in the next 12 months.
    • Soloway is bullish on uranium due to a long wedge pattern on the chart and the increasing demand for alternative energy sources, as solar panels are not feasible or cost-effective enough to meet the growing energy needs.
    • There is a potential for a new trade in uranium and nuclear power plants due to elevated inflation and the recent opening of a nuclear power plant in Georgia.
    • The political strife in Niger and the global push for sustainable energy will likely drive the price of uranium to revisit its 2021 high, potentially resulting in a 50% upside in the next 12 months, making it somewhat immune to recession concerns and a slowing economy.
    • BlackRock’s potential shift in the ESG narrative, as indicated by their appointment of aramco Co to the board, could have a significant impact on the economy and should be closely monitored.
    • Investment in energy companies may increase as there is a shift away from solely focusing on ESG, with uranium being highlighted as a potential trade opportunity.
  • 42:55 Gold to all-time-high in 2023, BTC to 15k, and a certain commodity will soar, as predicted by Gareth Soloway.
    • Gareth Soloway provides daily trade ideas for the commodity, crypto, and stock markets, with a focus on short-term trades, and viewers can find his videos on verifiedinvesting.com, YouTube, and Twitter.
    • Gold is predicted to reach an all-time high in 2023, Bitcoin is expected to reach $15k, and a certain commodity is projected to soar, according to Soloway.

Crash Within 6-8 weeks; Market Has Topped | Bob Moriarty
Liberty and Finance ... (From August 5)

Choose freedom over government control and prepare for a predicted market crash within 6-8 weeks.

Quick Summary Bullets:

Key insights

  • “Crash within 6-8 weeks; Market has topped.”
  • “Lowering the credit rating is pulling the plug on the financial system. We’ll see very soon.”
  • “Lowering the debt rating is the pin that the balloon has been looking for.” – Moriarty implies that a downgrade in the debt rating could be the catalyst for a market crash.
  • If the stock market collapses and we return to a gold or silver backed system, mining stocks could potentially have substantially more value, similar to the Great Depression.
  • “The internals of the financial system and the stock market are so Dreadful I don’t believe it can be kicked further down the road.”
  • Building durable freedom involves protecting our finances and liberty, as during times of crisis, people often sacrifice their liberty to the government.
  • The market has topped and a crash is expected within 6-8 weeks.
  • The belief that locking people down is necessary to combat climate change is “absolute rubbish,” according to the speaker.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Choose freedom over government control as the market is predicted to crash within 6-8 weeks; also, check out the special offer on 2023 1/10 ounce gold Eagles.
    • We are currently in a phase where we must choose between government control or freedom, and it is recommended that people choose freedom; also, there is a special offer on 2023 1/10 ounce gold Eagles available for purchase.
    • Bob Moriarty, founder of 321gold.com and 321energy.com, discusses interesting topics with Liberty and Finance.
  • 02:02 The ongoing banking crisis and US credit rating downgrade may lead to a market collapse within 6-8 weeks.
    • The ongoing banking crisis is causing multiple banks to fail, with half of US banks currently being bankrupt, and the recent downgrade of the US credit rating may trigger a market collapse and reset.
    • The speaker mentions a question about a dog named Fats and plans to ask about a story involving Fats, as well as mentioning the topic of a debt downgrade.
  • 05:08 The market is on the verge of collapse due to the fragile financial system and vulnerable stock market, triggered by the lowering of the debt rating, with the speaker believing that a collapse will happen before a World War occurs.
    • The market collapse will be triggered by the lowering of the debt rating, as the fragile financial system is at its peak and the stock market is vulnerable.
    • The banking system, both in the US and globally, is extremely fragile with half of the banks in the US having a negative 20 value and only 80 billion in assets despite having a hundred billion dollars in market cap.
    • The collapse of the system is happening organically and the Credit Agencies will be blamed for it, but it was inevitable.
    • The speaker believes that the economy will collapse before a World War occurs, and they do not think there will be a World War due to the realization of lies and corruption in Ukraine and the incompetence of Poland, NATO, and the United States.
  • 10:13 A market crash is predicted within 6-8 weeks due to the current state of the financial system and stock market, but mining stocks could still be profitable if precious metals are undervalued.
    • If the stock market collapses and we return to a gold or silver backed system, mining companies would have more value and while they produce wealth, it would be a stretch to call them Banks.
    • Mining stocks reflect real value and the speaker believes that if everyone is wrong on precious metals, they can still be profitable.
    • The speaker predicts a market crash within the next six weeks to two months, citing the current state of the financial system and stock market as reasons for his belief.
  • 13:35 Different countries have different rules for buying and selling precious metals, but it is important to note that Gold Eagles would be subject to duty in the UK and France, while buying certain currencies in Russia is easy.
    • Different countries have different rules for buying and selling precious metals, but some things are relatively similar across the board.
    • Moving gold across borders is relatively easy and tax-free in some countries, but it is important to note that Gold Eagles are not considered circulating coins and would be subject to duty in the UK and France.
    • Buying certain currencies like French francs, daymarks, gold rubles, gold, and silver in Russia is easy, and the question of how to build durable freedom is important.
  • 17:11 People are fighting back against government control and censorship, seeking to preserve their freedom amidst a crisis phase and illegal actions by large organizations.
    • The author discusses the fourth turning and how the crisis phase is currently happening, with one of the alternatives being freedom.
    • People are starting to fight back against government control and the power of large organizations that can blacklist or shut people off from necessary resources, in order to protect their freedom.
    • Attorney generals are suing the US government for illegally censoring people on social media, while individuals and groups are fighting back against illegal actions such as freezing bank accounts, and it is important for people to find ways to preserve their freedom.
  • 20:44 Extraordinary weather changes are not caused by humans or climate change, but by a volcano eruption near Tonga, prompting the need for change and finding solutions to fix the broken system.
    • Extraordinary weather changes in the world are not caused by humans or climate change, but rather by a volcano eruption near Tonga that released a significant amount of water into the atmosphere.
    • Educate yourself, think for yourself, and find solutions to fix the broken system, as people are waking up to the fact that change is needed.
    • The speaker encountered a dog that looked like their own dog, and mentioned where viewers can find more information about their work.
  • 24:50 Choose freedom and own everything as the market is predicted to crash within 6-8 weeks; order from Miles Franklin for secure and discreet shipping of your medals.
    • Choose freedom over government control and own everything, as the market is predicted to crash within 6-8 weeks.
    • To order from Miles Franklin, call to discuss your needs, lock in your order, and choose a payment method; once payment is settled, your medals will ship within 3-5 business days with discreet packaging and tracking information provided.

Dr. Doom: Stay Away From the 'Woke Empire' as U.S. Dollar Heads Toward Worthless Currency Status
Stansberry Research ... (From August 1)

Marc Faber (Dr. Doom)  warns of an impending stock market shake-up and advised to move their money within 90 days, with a focus on the US dollar’s decline, the rise of China, and the need to diversify investments outside of the US dollar block.

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • “Dr. Doom warns about the potential consequences of the current economic situation.”
  • “Tax increases have a very negative impact on the economy because it hits the people that consume the most” – Dr. Doom argues that tax increases primarily affect the middle and lower classes, while the super rich find ways to avoid taxation.
  • “The U.S will have to inflate also because of the unfunded liabilities and therefore my view is that although the inflation figures may look better for the next few months in the long run I think the inflation figures and interest rates will exceed the peak we had in 1980-81 when the 10 years Treasury was yielding more than 15 percent.”
  • “If you bail out everyone, you will end up with some sort of a fascist system or kind of a crony capitalistic system which is happening in the Western World.”
  • “The US dollar is heading towards worthless currency status.”
  • “This balance of economic power has shifted into emerging economies.”
  • “It’s a big risk to hold all your assets in US dollars because I think that the US dollar will become over time a worthless currency.”
  • “The end of the US dollar has been predicted since 1963, but the main change now that could see its death is the rise of China as a different landscape.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Investors are warned of an impending stock market shake-up and advised to move their money within 90 days, with Dr. Mark Faber discussing current headlines and sharing his insights on the Daniela Cambodia show.
    • Wall Street veteran Mark Chaikin warns investors of an upcoming historic stock market shake-up that could lead to devastating losses, urging them to move their money within 90 days and offering a free report with insights on a stock that could be impacted.
    • Dr. Mark Faber, a renowned economist, discusses current headlines and shares his specific take on them in an interview with Daniela Cambone on the Daniela Cambodia show.
  • 02:15 The US is heading towards high inflation and interest rates due to unfunded liabilities and fiscal deficits, with the only option being to inflate the currency, which disproportionately affects the middle and lower classes and is detrimental to the economy.
    • The US is unlikely to reduce its debt through spending cuts or tax increases, so the only option is to inflate the currency, which disproportionately affects the middle and lower classes and is ultimately detrimental to the economy.
    • Faber predicts that the US will experience high inflation and interest rates exceeding the peak of 1980-81 due to unfunded liabilities, fiscal deficits, and the need for money printing to finance government debt.
    • Government agencies and officials, including the Federal Reserve, lie to the public in order to maintain the financial market and prevent panic, even if it means printing more money.
  • 07:33 Inflation is hurting ordinary people as real incomes decrease, while the European Central Bank’s irresponsible monetary policies have led to rising inflation and interest rates, and Switzerland’s banking system is facing issues with only two large banks.
    • Inflation is a tax on ordinary people, as real incomes have been decreasing while GDP is reported to be increasing, and the European Central Bank will be requesting weekly liquidity data from banks to monitor their ability to handle potential shocks as interest rates rise.
    • The rise in inflation and interest rates in Europe is due to the irresponsible monetary policies of the European Central Bank, which printed more money than the United States and kept interest rates artificially low and negative, a situation that has never happened before in history.
    • Competition is healthy in the banking system, and too many banks can lead to a crony capitalist system, as seen in the Western World, but in Switzerland, there are only two large banks, one of which has failed and now operates like a government bank.
  • 12:36 Faber warns that the US dollar is becoming worthless due to inflation and advises investors to move their money into other countries’ assets, while emphasizing the rise of China as a global economic power.
    • Faber believes it is desirable for the world to have multiple participants in global economic affairs and politics, and questions the credibility and potential threat of a gold-backed currency being prepared by the BRICS.
    • Faber believes that the global currency system should be phased out, with transactions occurring in local currencies, as the balance of economic power has shifted to emerging economies like China.
    • China’s rise as a global economic power and the decline of the US as the number one economic power is a reality that American politicians struggle to accept.
    • Investors should consider moving their money out of US dollars and investing in other countries’ stocks, funds, commodities, and real estate, as the US dollar is heading towards becoming a worthless currency due to inflation, and this includes close allies and vassal states of the US like Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand.
  • 19:03 Investing in Asia may be safer as World War III could break out between China, the US, and Russia, while the US dollar’s decline is due to China’s rise and competition for influence in Southeast Asian countries.
    • Investing in Asia may be a safer option as the speaker believes that World War III could potentially break out between China, the US, and Russia, making Central and Latin America a relatively safe region.
    • The main reason for the potential death of the US dollar as a global currency is the changing landscape, particularly with the rise of China.
    • The diminished prestige of the US is evident in Thailand, where a candidate educated in England and at Harvard won the most votes but was rumored to be financed by the US, as China and the US compete for influence in Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand.
  • 23:53 Faber criticizes the democratic system and prefers Trump over Biden, while also mentioning their preference for working at night instead of sleeping.
    • Faber expresses doubts about the democratic system and believes that the current presidential candidates are a reflection of its failure, with a preference for Trump over Biden due to the management of certain states.
    • Faber is not kept up at night by anything, except for enjoying a good beer, and they work during the night instead of sleeping.
  • 27:32 Be cautious of government control and incompetence, protect privacy by avoiding sharing personal achievements on social media, diversify investments outside of the US dollar block, consider cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin but be cautious of potential abuse and lack of transparency.
    • Faber expresses concern about the possibility of losing access to assets and money due to government control and incompetence.
    • Be cautious about sharing personal achievements on social media, as it is important to protect oneself and maintain privacy.
    • Invest in jurisdictions outside of the US dollar block, such as Hong Kong, China, and Latin America, as a diversification strategy to avoid losing money in the future.
    • Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are a new type of currency that emerged due to excessive money printing by the Federal Reserve, and while they may have practical applications, there are also dangers involved such as potential abuse by central banks and lack of transparency, so it is important to be cautious and consider other investments like precious metals.
  • 33:25 The opinions expressed in this video are solely those of the contributor and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Stansbury research, its parent company, or affiliates.

Alasdair Macleod: The Financial Equivalent of Nuclear War
Palisades Gold Radio ... (From August 3)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Geopolitical Shifts and Power Dynamics

  • The financial situation involving BRICS and their desire to distance themselves from America is a multi-faceted and significant story.
  • The proposal to merge BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization suggests a super organization of many nations coming together on commercial terms to trade with Russia and China, sending a clear message to the West.
  • The American strategy of raising dollar interest rates could potentially bankrupt Latin American and African countries, forcing them back into the American sphere of influence, despite China’s significant investments in their infrastructure and assets.
  • The power center of the world is shifting towards Asia, as predicted by Mackinder in 1905, with Russia and China playing significant roles in this transformation.
  • Russia and China are working to insulate themselves against the potential collapse of the dollar, indicating their concern about the global economic situation.
  • The new super block of the Shanghai cooperation organization and Bricks are likely to reduce their dollar holdings and sell dollars for gold, undermining fiat currencies.

Financial Warfare and Economic Consequences

  • The US economy is ensnared in an impossible debt trap with no escape, as the country’s debt continues to increase and bank credit contracts, leading to higher borrowing costs.
  • The dollar and other Western Fiat currencies are facing the same fate now as John Law’s currency was in the 1700s.
  • The financial war is escalating to the equivalent of a nuclear war, with the potential to destroy fiat currencies entirely.
  • Putin’s only alternative to protect his economy and credibility is to escalate the financial war, which could be the equivalent of a financial nuclear bomb.
  • The potential mother of all bear markets in financial asset values could lead to a significant outflow of foreign investments in US equities and bonds, impacting the global financial system.
  • The political collapse and rise of Hitler in Germany can be attributed, at least in part, to the economic turmoil caused by hyperinflation, highlighting the importance of managing the consequences of such financial crises to prevent similar catastrophic outcomes in the future.

Gold and Currency

  • “The probabilities are overwhelming on Gold’s side that is the best environment to see goals increase.”
  • “The way this should work is to tie the currency to gold, which can actually be very easily done.”
  • “I think this is almost a fatal complete in the west… Nobody’s paid any attention to this whatsoever and I think that is a huge mistake.”
  • “If the credit is tied to the price and value of gold, it simplifies the concept of value and makes it easier to understand.”
  • The introduction of a new trade currency and the potential adoption of a gold standard by Russia and China could undermine the dominance of the dollar in trade settlement purposes.

Geopolitical Shifts and Power Dynamics

  • The financial situation involving BRICS and their desire to distance themselves from America is a multi-faceted and significant story.
  • The proposal to merge BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization suggests a super organization of many nations coming together on commercial terms to trade with Russia and China, sending a clear message to the West.
  • The American strategy of raising dollar interest rates could potentially bankrupt Latin American and African countries, forcing them back into the American sphere of influence, despite China’s significant investments in their infrastructure and assets.
  • The power center of the world is shifting towards Asia, as predicted by Mackinder in 1905, with Russia and China playing significant roles in this transformation.
  • Russia and China are working to insulate themselves against the potential collapse of the dollar, indicating their concern about the global economic situation.
  • The new super block of the Shanghai cooperation organization and Bricks are likely to reduce their dollar holdings and sell dollars for gold, undermining fiat currencies.

Financial Warfare and Economic Consequences

  • The US economy is ensnared in an impossible debt trap with no escape, as the country’s debt continues to increase and bank credit contracts, leading to higher borrowing costs.
  • The dollar and other Western Fiat currencies are facing the same fate now as John Law’s currency was in the 1700s.
  • The financial war is escalating to the equivalent of a nuclear war, with the potential to destroy fiat currencies entirely.
  • Putin’s only alternative to protect his economy and credibility is to escalate the financial war, which could be the equivalent of a financial nuclear bomb.
  • The potential mother of all bear markets in financial asset values could lead to a significant outflow of foreign investments in US equities and bonds, impacting the global financial system.
  • The political collapse and rise of Hitler in Germany can be attributed, at least in part, to the economic turmoil caused by hyperinflation, highlighting the importance of managing the consequences of such financial crises to prevent similar catastrophic outcomes in the future.

Gold and Currency

  • “The probabilities are overwhelming on Gold’s side that is the best environment to see goals increase.”
  • “The way this should work is to tie the currency to gold, which can actually be very easily done.”
  • “I think this is almost a fatal complete in the west… Nobody’s paid any attention to this whatsoever and I think that is a huge mistake.”
  • “If the credit is tied to the price and value of gold, it simplifies the concept of value and makes it easier to understand.”
  • The introduction of a new trade currency and the potential adoption of a gold standard by Russia and China could undermine the dominance of the dollar in trade settlement purposes.

Transcript Summary:

  •  00:00 Gold’s value is likely to increase as the dollar is being replaced as a trade settlement currency by the Eurasian economic union, with Russia potentially backing the ruble with gold to secure its value and propose a new trade settlement currency for BRICS.
    • Gold’s value is likely to increase as the dollar is being replaced as a trade settlement currency by the Eurasian economic union.
    • The idea behind creating a new trade settlement currency was to provide an alternative to using dollars for transactions between Asian countries, particularly for Russia and China, and it would incorporate a mixture of currencies and commodities.
    • Tying the currency to gold can be easily done by setting up a separate issuer of a currency backed by gold, acting as a bank of issuance rather than a central bank managing interest rates.
    • Macleod discusses how a Moscow business paper article written by a member of the EA EU committee suggests that the ruble should be backed by gold in order to secure its value, which is attractive to Putin due to the high interest rates and weakening of the Ruble in the Russian economy.
    • The weakening Russian economy, with a declining currency and shrinking trade surplus, may lead the West to believe they have the upper hand in a potential war, but Putin is not easily defeated.
    • Russia is likely moving towards backing the ruble with gold, which would result in lower interest rates, a more stable currency, and increased security for savers, and there are indications that a new trade settlement currency for the BRICS membership will be proposed at the upcoming BRICS summit.
  • 08:40 Russia, along with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China, are encouraging the use of currencies other than the dollar, potentially leading to a new gold-backed currency for energy sales, while the West is ignoring a major event related to this and the Chinese’s disregard for US attempts to undermine the dollar.
    • The mainstream media in the West has not mentioned the confirmation from Russia about a financial agenda, and the US dollar’s trade weighted broke down below a crucial support level, with dissenters in India who have always denied the utility of gold as money.
    • The decline in the purchasing power of the UK’s rupee is driven by Russia, who, along with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China, are encouraging the use of currencies other than the dollar for exports, leading to the possibility of a new gold-backed currency being used for energy sales.
    • Macleod warns that the West is making a huge mistake by not paying attention to a major event that is likely to occur on August 22nd-24th, which is related to Russia’s new gold proposition and the Chinese’s disregard for US attempts to dissuade them from undermining the dollar.
    • The vulnerability of potential new members of BRICS due to their debt in dollars and higher interest rates is causing distress and motivating them to distance themselves from America.
    • Janet Yellen’s response to questions about a new global currency at a meeting in China was evasive, indicating that the topic is serious and not just a casual conversation.
  • 14:41 China’s selling of US treasuries is concerning for trade and commodity transactions, a new gold-backed currency could simplify the financial system, and China’s investments in Africa and Latin America may shift the balance of power away from the US.
    • China has been selling off its U.S. treasuries, which is concerning for the treasury secretary as it affects trade and commodity transactions.
    • Trade credit is self-extinguishing and differs from bank credit within a country, as it is only available to businesses and requires financing through a nominated major bank.
    • A new currency tied to gold would be created, allowing banks to have access to it through their Central Bank, simplifying the politics of the situation and avoiding the need to constantly re-weight and rebalance currencies.
    • The price of gold and its value can simplify the financial system, but there may be challenges in dealing with commodity purchases and sales.
    • Brics and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization may merge, forming a super organization of many nations trading with Russia and China, which would send a clear message to the West.
    • China is making major investments in African and Latin American countries, improving infrastructure and creating partnerships, while the US, through the IMF, has provided loans on easy terms that may become difficult to repay, potentially forcing these countries back into the American sphere of influence.
  • 22:24 China and Russia are working together to counter the US’s manipulation of global financial crises, with China helping Southeast Asian nations and Russia considering a new trade currency and potentially transitioning the ruble to a gold standard, while the US is trapped in an impossible debt situation with rising interest rates and potential inflation.
    • The Latin American and Asian crises in the late 70s and 90s were manipulated by the US through lowering and raising interest rates to bankrupt countries and allow American corporations to profit.
    • China is aware of the danger that Southeast Asian nations face from the strong dollar and is making efforts to help finance them, while also recognizing the potential disaster for America if they try to stop Chinese imports.
    • Russia is the main driving force behind a joint project with China to bring the emerging world together and create an industrial revolution for mutual benefit.
    • Russia’s Trade Surplus has fallen sharply and President Putin needs to act soon to bring his Smo to a conclusion or drive commodity prices higher by undermining the dollar, which can be achieved by establishing a new Trade Currency and potentially transitioning the ruble to a gold standard, providing a better alternative to the dollar for trade settlement purposes.
    • The US economy is trapped in an impossible debt situation, with the government’s interest bill reaching a trillion dollars and higher interest rates looming due to contracting bank credit.
    • The cost of credit will rise as interest rates increase, independent of the Central Bank’s control, and there is a potential for inflation to return due to rising grain and oil prices.
  • 31:14 The Japanese financial system is facing cracks as the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet suffers losses, resulting in rising interest rates, while global suppression of interest rates and excessive money printing could lead to destructive inflation and debt, impacting multiple countries.
    • Cracks are appearing in the Japanese financial system as the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet is facing losses and they are unable to continue buying bonds, resulting in a significant increase in interest rates.
    • Japanese banks are selling French debt and storm clouds are gathering over currencies, signaling the end of the fiat currency era.
    • The Mississippi bubble and the current financial situation share similarities as both were asset bubbles caused by credit policies of central banks.
    • Macleod discusses the global situation of suppressing interest rates and compares it to John Law’s situation, emphasizing the importance of shorting the currency when the bubble collapses.
    • The Federal Reserve will likely be forced to print more money and raise interest rates to fund the US government, which could lead to destructive levels of inflation and debt, affecting not only America but also Britain, Europe, and Japan, while Russia and China seek to insulate themselves from this outcome.
  • 36:55 Foreign uncertainty about the future purchasing power of the dollar could lead to higher interest rates, a sell-off of dollars for gold, and potential undermining of fiat currencies.
    • There is no reporting on the financial equivalent of nuclear war in the West, possibly due to ignorance rather than government censorship.
    • For over 50 years, the education system has dismissed gold as part of the monetary system and economists are supportive of Keynesian stimulus, credit manipulation, and interest rate manipulation without actually understanding what interest rates represent.
    • The weakness in currencies comes from foreigners’ uncertainty about the future purchasing power of the dollar.
    • If the purchasing power of the dollar is expected to fall, foreigners will demand higher interest rates to compensate for the discounted future value of the dollar, which could worsen the debt trap and undermine the dollar further.
    • Foreign holders of US treasuries and cash, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, are likely to reduce their dollar holdings and sell dollars for gold, undermining fiat currencies.
    • Countries holding US debt are unlikely to coordinate a simultaneous sell-off, but individual nations will continue to make their own decisions on how many dollars to hold and how to invest them, with some potentially buying more if yields increase, while countries considering using a new currency in their reserves may need to sell dollars for gold.
  • 43:40 The expansion and contraction of credit in the US has been masked by central bank action, leading to a crisis and now a contraction, while bad credit is contracting in the UK and Europe, causing a decrease in nominal GDP and undermining the currency’s purchasing power.
    • The expansion and contraction of credit in the US has been masked by central bank action, resulting in limited evidence of the cycle of bank credit expansion and contraction.
    • The financial system experienced a crisis, which was resolved by the Fed and US Treasury, leading to an expansion of bank credit, but now there is a contraction happening, although not yet evident in the US, due to factors such as reverse repos and increased loans on bank balance sheets.
    • Bad credit is contracting in the UK and Europe, leading to a contraction in nominal GDP, and the central bank’s activities are contributing to the undermining of the currency’s purchasing power.
    • Consumer and producer prices fell slightly despite a significant increase in bank credit, as the expansion of credit met the needs of the economy without causing inflation.
    • The restriction on increasing the quantity of banknotes tied to gold prevented the purchasing power of the pound from being undermined, and this system is still applicable today.
    • The value of currencies has been steadily decreasing since the suspension of Bretton Woods, resulting in a significant loss of purchasing power.
  • 50:32 Activating gold as a financial weapon could lead to the destruction of fiat currencies, with potential for a major breach in the financial system, while the purchasing power of gold is likely to increase as interest rates rise and currencies decline.
    • Activating gold as a financial weapon could undermine the purchasing power of the dollar, leading to the destruction of fiat currencies and a major escalation akin to a nuclear war.
    • Both sides in the financial war between America and Russia are escalating tensions, with the potential for a major breach in the financial system that is far more serious than previous events, and while some believe bringing gold back into the financial system is necessary for stability, others doubt it can be done quickly.
    • The potential decline in financial asset values and the shift of liquidity from US treasuries and equities may lead to a crisis in the gold market, with China likely to receive a significant portion of the capital inflows and people stockpiling commodities as a hedge against the declining purchasing power of the dollar.
    • The purchasing power of gold is likely to increase relative to fiat currencies and other assets, such as property, as interest rates rise and currencies decline, making gold a valuable asset to hold in the face of financial instability.
    • Foreign students in Berlin buying houses with their monthly allowance in dollars led to a collapse of the middle class, bankruptcy of landowners, and the rise of Hitler, showing the need for statesmen to understand and manage the consequences of economic disruptions.
    • Goldmoney is a platform that stores precious metals in vaults around the world, fully insured and not on their balance sheet, and also offers gold coins and deliveries through their branch called Shift Gold, with articles available on their website and the speaker’s Twitter handle being @McLeodFinance.

This is How I'm Positioning My Capital to Survive Coming Recession: David Rosenberg
The Jay Martin Show ... (From July 31)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Economic Outlook and Market Analysis

  • There is a wide range of topics covered in David’s interview, including the housing market, making it a highly informative discussion.
  • “Over 40,000 investors hear from me every Sunday.” – David Rosenberg’s newsletter has a large following, indicating his expertise and influence in the investment community.
  • The speaker suggests that the current economic situation could lead to the most pronounced tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve since 1981, potentially indicating a recession.
  • “Interest rates matter for the economy, matter for the markets” – David Rosenberg highlights the significance of interest rates in valuations and their impact on the economy and markets.
  • “There’s a real disconnect between what the bond market is telling you and the stock market’s economic message.”
  • “Everything moves in cycles, including interest rate cycles, market cycles, and economic cycles.”
  • “We’re 95 correlated with the United States candidates.” – Rosenberg highlights the strong correlation between the Canadian and US economies, emphasizing the importance of considering the US market when positioning capital.
  • “I think the Bank of Canada now is like damned Damn the Torpedoes full steam ahead, I’m stunning how hawkish they’ve become and there’s going to be an interest rate that is going to really break the back of this thing.”

Investment Strategies and Opportunities

  • “I let’s start with cash. So you’re getting paid roughly five and a half percent to be in cash.”
  • “When it comes back down again because the market’s moving cycles, you’re going to wish you had at least some of your capital earning five to five and a half percent totally risk-free.”
  • “The way the yield curve is going to normalize…short-term rates will come down…and you want to own long bonds and those yields will go down by less but you’ll get a nice big fat return because of the convexity.”
  • “I want to own gold in any form… gold is going to be a good place to be in the next year.”
  • “You always want to invest around the two standard deviation event and what that means if you’re an index investor simply take your profits in the U.S and deploy them in the much more attractively priced Canadian Market.”
  •  “Gold is a good investment because real interest rates are going down and the US dollar is expected to weaken due to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates ahead of other central banks.”
  • “The Canada right now looks very compelling to me, especially if you put together a trade where you short the US market and go long on the Canadian Market.”

Housing Market and Affordability

  • “If we had to mean revert the affordability ratio in Canada. Uh home practice home prices were to be the factor to equilibriate it um. We would have to have house prices go down 25 percent that’s how crazy it is and uh look at we all know. It’s become a major social problem.” – The affordability ratio in Canada’s housing market suggests that house prices would need to decrease by 25% to reach equilibrium, highlighting the severity of the housing affordability issue.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The current stock market rally is not supported by strong fundamentals, indicating a weak overall backdrop, and investors should consider allocating capital to cash or the treasury bill market to survive the coming recession.
    • David Rosenberg discusses various topics including the FOMO-driven rally in the SNP, real economic data, forecasts for the US dollar, rates, and gold, as well as the housing market.
    • David Rosenberg discusses the importance of managing one’s mind in decision making as an investor and invites viewers to join his team.
    • The current stock market rally is not supported by strong fundamentals, as corporate profits and revenues are declining, indicating a weak overall backdrop, and while it may not be an official recession, the economy is running at a slow pace with limited potential for growth.
    • The stock market is influenced by various factors such as fundamentals, technicals, sentiment, momentum, and market positioning, with sentiment and momentum currently dominating, as mentioned by a guest on CNBC.
    • Rosenberg discusses the fear of missing out factor in the market and suggests allocating capital to cash, which currently offers a 5.5% return.
    • Investors should consider investing in the treasury bill market, which offers a guaranteed 5-5.5% return with no liquidity, capital, or duration risks, as the stock market is unpredictable and a recession is likely.
  • 06:55 The potential recession is being delayed by excess savings and increased credit card usage, but credit conditions are tightening, so it is recommended to own short-term treasury bills, long-term bonds, gold, and rate-sensitive sectors in the stock market, while taking profits in the overvalued US stock market and considering investments in Canada and Japan.
    • The delay in the recession is due to the resolution of excess savings and increased credit card usage, but now credit conditions are tightening, leading to a potential recession.
    • In preparation for the upcoming recession, Rosenberg recommends owning both short-term treasury bills and long-term bonds, as the yield curve will normalize and short-term rates will decrease while long-term yields will also decrease, resulting in a favorable return.
    • Gold is a good investment and interest rates are expected to decrease, so it is recommended to own gold and rate-sensitive sectors in the stock market, while taking profits in the US and considering investments in Canada.
    • Investors should take profits in the overvalued US stock market and invest in the more attractively priced Canadian market, as well as consider opportunities in Japan, while remaining cautious about the expensive levels of the US stock market and keeping an eye on the treasury market.
    • The high interest rate borrowing and credit card delinquencies in the American consumer market are driven by a maintained standard of living, decreasing work week, and consumer psychology.
    • Rosenberg discusses the mentality of YOLO and excessive spending fueled by government stimulus, leading to a rise in credit card applications and a sense of narcissism.
  • 14:15 The current consumer mentality of spending all stimulus money and relying on bailouts may lead to fiscal excess savings running out, increased credit card debt, and potential economic challenges ahead.
    • Rosenberg discusses the mentality of YOLO and FOMO in today’s world of acronyms.
    • The current stimulus is different from past ones because people are spending all of it instead of saving, which is a new consumer mentality that will lead to fiscal excess savings running out and increased credit card debt.
    • Extended government support during the pandemic has created a mentality of reliance on bailouts, as seen in the case of banks, leading to moral hazard and potentially impacting the economy.
    • Rosenberg discusses the current mentality of relying on bailouts and the pattern of tightening until something breaks, followed by reopening the balance sheet to bail out bad players.
    • The rejection rate for credit card applications is increasing, indicating potential economic challenges ahead, and the impact of the Federal Reserve’s actions on the economy is yet to be fully realized.
  • 19:12 The stock market is no longer a reliable indicator of the economy, as companies manipulate their numbers and new technology disrupts the labor market, leading to a potential recession and panic selling.
    • Interest rates are crucial for valuations, both in the stock market and the real economy, and comparing them to the risk-free rate is essential for understanding fundamentals and benchmarking.
    • Investors often focus solely on the stock market and try to fit the narrative of a soft landing into it, but this approach can lead to overlooking other markets and potential recessions.
    • The stock market is no longer a reliable indicator of economic information, as it has become a get rich quick scheme and companies now financially engineer their numbers by buying back their stock instead of issuing stock to boost capital spending.
    • The bond market is not buying into the economic message from the stock market, indicating a disconnect between the two.
    • New technology will disrupt the labor market and weaken demand, causing inflation to go down, while the bond market suggests that the stock market’s rally is based on FOMO and lacks economic information, leading to a potential aggressive selling and panic selling.
    • Rosenberg discusses indicators of a potential recession, such as credit card delinquencies, mortgage compromises, and an unsustainable auto loan bubble, and suggests that the stock market moves in cycles, citing examples from previous years.
  • 29:10 A recession is likely on the horizon as current economic indicators point towards weakness, with negative housing starts, negative industrial production, and flat real retail sales indicating a more fragile economy than perceived.
    • Recession risks are still high and the current bull market is driven by complacency, with no fundamental reason to join the crowd.
    • The market experienced a surge in 2017 due to expectations of tax cuts, but with current valuations, interest rates, and the economy, a soft landing is unlikely and a recession may be imminent.
    • Rosenberg predicts that a recession is imminent, citing past experiences and current economic indicators pointing towards weakness in the coming quarters.
    • Negative housing starts, negative industrial production, and flat real retail sales indicate that the economy is more fragile than people think.
  • 33:35 Invest in GICs for a 5% return, but be cautious about locking in for 5 years due to potential changes in the yield curve; consider buying energy, gold, and Canadian banks as real interest rates go down and the US dollar weakens; invest in the TSX for less volatility and correlation with the US economy; short the US market and go long on the Canadian market; Canadian real estate market is facing stress due to high immigration rates and supply constraints.
    • Park capital in gics for 5% return, but consider not locking in for 5 years due to potential changes in the next 5 years, as yield curve is flat or inverted.
    • The stock market will eventually revert to a more reasonable equity risk premium, so it is important to have liquidity to invest when the market reaches its fundamental lows, and there are opportunities in the Canadian market and gold due to their relation to commodities and energy stocks.
    • Buy energy, gold, and Canadian banks because real interest rates are going down, the US dollar will weaken, and Canadian banks are cheap with attractive dividend yields.
    • Invest in the TSX as it is less volatile and highly correlated with the US economy.
    • Rosenberg believes that despite the wide divide in earnings yield between Canada and the United States, the Canadian market is a compelling option for investment due to its pricing and suggests a trade strategy of shorting the US market and going long on the Canadian market.
    • The Canadian real estate market is facing stress due to high immigration rates and supply constraints, leading to inflated home prices and a need for affordability to be restored.
  • 39:57 Rosenberg discusses the lack of response in Canadian housing prices to rate increases, predicts a housing crisis and potential job loss, advises keeping money available for stock market opportunities, suggests a bearish outlook on the US dollar, and recommends investing in mid-tier gold producers.
    • Rosenberg discusses the surprising lack of response in Canadian housing prices to the Bank of Canada’s rate increases, attributing it to the country’s aggressive immigration policy exacerbating the housing bubble.
    • Vancouver is an expensive city due to limited inventory, which forced the speaker to move out of the city to make their dollar go further.
    • Rosenberg predicts that in order to solve the housing crisis and prevent an economic recession, the Bank of Canada will either restrict credit availability or increase interest rates, leading to a decrease in housing demand and potential job loss.
    • Rosenberg suggests that short-term interest rates may increase in the near future and advises keeping money available for potential stock market opportunities, as central banks aim to lower inflation by deflating asset prices such as equities and residential real estate.
    • Central banks acquiring large amounts of gold and the decline of the US dollar suggest that the US dollar may no longer be the reserve currency, leading to a bearish outlook on the US dollar and a potential recession.
    • Investors should consider investing in mid-tier gold producers as they are currently profitable and have little competition, even though it may take a year before any action is seen in the market.

Col. Douglas Macgregor: Is the Ukraine War Lost?
Jeremy Ryan Slate ... (From August 4)

Colonel Douglas McGregor gives one of the very best explanations of the history of the Ukraine war and his assessment of the current situation.

Quick Summary Bullets:

International implications and consequences of the conflict

  • The delusions and bubble in Washington could potentially lead to the commitment of U.S and NATO forces in the conflict, risking a direct confrontation with Russia.
  • The mainstream media deliberately lies and there is now no truth, only a narrative that must be followed, otherwise you’re labeled as an enemy or a Putin agent.
  • “If you don’t have the military power on the ground…you risk an escalation to the nuclear level particularly if you lose which we would if we went toe-to-toe with the Russians on a conventional level.”
  • “There are some sober-minded individuals who are saying look. You know this could in fact get out of control. We may not be able to manage this. We need to bring it to an end.”
  • “I think people will party and party and party and drink their champagne and spend their money and buy their yachts and their big cars and live in the houses they do in Washington until it all falls apart.” – Col. Douglas Macgregor
  • “The United States has no vital strategic interests in eastern Ukraine. We should not be involved in this war.”

Causes and motivations behind the conflict

  • President Putin’s initial intention was to prevent NATO from advancing closer to Russia’s borders, which he saw as a threat to his country’s security.
  • Putin’s annexation of Crimea was driven by his concern that it would become a NATO Naval Base, rather than a desire to expand westward.
  • The hostilities between Ukraine and Russia broke out almost immediately after the decision to “punish” Russia, resulting in the deaths of 14,000 people.
  • NATO’s posturing and increasing proximity to Russia has led to tensions and anger from Putin.

Military capabilities and impact of the conflict

  • The Ukrainian forces have suffered significant casualties, with estimates of 300,000 to 350,000 dead, highlighting the devastating impact of the conflict.
  • “The Russians never ran out of anything, but the Ukrainians have now run out of everything – they’ve run out of most of their artillery ammunition, tank ammunition, even Small Arms, and they’re running out of human beings.”
  • “Russia is better armed, better equipped, better trained, better commanded, and more modern than it has been certainly since the 1980s.”
  • “Russia is stronger than ever, we are not.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Colonel Douglas McGregor discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine, highlighting Russia’s motives, the role of Ukrainian nationalists, and Putin’s desire to protect Russians in eastern Ukraine.
    • The speaker discusses the importance of being free thinkers and unapologetically ourselves in order to create our own lives.
    • Colonel Douglas McGregor expected the war in Ukraine to be a quick conflict, but it has dragged on because the Russians are trying to end it as quickly as possible.
    • President Putin’s initial intention was to prevent NATO from advancing closer to Russia’s borders, and he interpreted the placement of missile sites in Eastern Europe as evidence of this, while also mentioning the government turnover in Ukraine.
    • Russia took control of Crimea because they saw the revolution in Ukraine as a threat and wanted to prevent it from becoming a NATO Naval Base.
    • Russia was not solely responsible for the hostilities in Ukraine, as the Ukrainian nationalists initiated the fighting and wanted Russia’s intervention, while Putin saw the Ukrainian Army’s buildup as a threat.
    • The war in Ukraine has lasted as long as it has because Putin wanted to protect the Russians in eastern Ukraine and the Minsk Accords were a delay tactic to give the Ukrainians more time to build up their forces.
  • 06:37 Ukraine underestimated Russia’s power and resources, leading to their current state of collapse and vulnerability, while Russia is rapidly expanding its armed forces and poses a risk for countries like Ukraine.
    • In April, Boris Johnson informed Zelenski that Washington wanted the war to continue and promised full support from the US and NATO, leading Zelenski to believe they would win; meanwhile, the Russian army, lacking sufficient forces, decided to shift to a defensive strategy, mobilizing reservists and volunteers to prepare for the war.
    • The lack of freezing in the ground during winter prevented an offensive operation in Russia and Ukraine due to the deep, fertile soil turning into impassable mud.
    • Ukraine’s off-road movement was hindered, leading to them being attacked by foreign fighters and suffering heavy casualties, resulting in their current state of collapse and vulnerability to Russia.
    • Ukraine underestimated Russia’s economic power, resources, and ability to rapidly provide their forces with modern equipment, while Ukraine has run out of ammunition and is facing a shortage of personnel, leading to the realization that the bet on Ukraine as a proxy has failed.
    • The Russian armed forces are rapidly expanding and are expected to have at least 1.2 million troops under arms in the near future, making them better armed, equipped, trained, and commanded than they have been since the 1980s, which poses a risk for countries like Ukraine and may lead to potential intervention.
    • Russia is currently stronger than ever, while the United States is not, which poses a dangerous situation.
  • 12:25 Washington and Western powers are deluding themselves into thinking Ukraine is winning the war, while the poor condition of our armed forces and lack of information from mainstream media could lead to a disastrous conflict with Russia.
    • Our armed forces, ships, and aircraft are in poor condition, the Army is in terrible condition, lacking in size and ammunition, and there is a significant fuel and logistical infrastructure problem in the European theater.
    • Washington and other Western powers are deluding themselves into thinking that Ukraine is winning the war, but in reality, they are in danger of being drawn into a conflict with Russia, which would be disastrous for Europe.
    • The mainstream media deliberately spreads lies and propaganda, leaving the American population uninformed about the situation in Ukraine, which could have serious consequences if NATO were to engage in a conflict with Russia.
  • 15:34 Russia is hesitant to escalate the Ukraine war due to fear of US/NATO involvement, but if the US lacks military power, there is a risk of nuclear escalation, so Russia wants to negotiate; understanding the people involved in a war is crucial, as attempting to win from a distance with limited resources is unlikely to succeed and could lead to trouble; NATO’s expansion towards Russia angers Putin, and the speaker is concerned about Polish influence overshadowing American interests; Europe lacks unified hostility towards Russia, with little support for war among European electorates, and top-down leadership influences decisions rather than the will of the people, who are influenced by globalist elites; globalists aim to destroy Russia and replace Putin due to their threat to interests, and the US dollar’s dominance is being affected as countries grow tired of US financial bullying for American hegemony.
    • Russia has been holding back in the Ukraine war because they don’t want a war with the US or NATO, but if the US doesn’t have the military power to take on Russia, there is a risk of escalation to the nuclear level, so Russia just wants to negotiate an end to the conflict.
    • Talking to and understanding the people involved in a war is crucial, as believing in superiority and attempting to win a war from a distance with limited resources is unlikely to be successful and could lead to trouble.
    • NATO’s continuous expansion towards Russia has angered Putin, and the speaker is concerned that the Polish influence may overshadow American interests.
    • Europe is not unified in its hostility towards Russia, as there is little support among the European electorates for a war with Russia, and the decision to engage in war seems to be driven by top-down leadership rather than the will of the people, who are influenced by globalist elites.
    • The globalists, who control financial markets, media, and governments, aim to destroy Russia and replace Putin because Russia’s national identity and resources pose a threat to their interests.
    • Russia is holding out in the Ukraine war, but the US dollar’s dominance is being affected as many countries are becoming tired of the United States using the financial system to bully and enforce its notion of American hegemony.
  • 22:40 The war in Ukraine may escalate into a larger regional conflict, with the outcome depending on the internal power struggle within the US administration and the ideological divide between globalists and nationalists.
    • Madeleine Albright and her successors have repeatedly used the military to advance US interests, creating a receptive audience for Putin who is seen as someone who has stood up to the US.
    • Many nations, including China and India, are accumulating large amounts of gold in order to move away from the valueless fiat currency and peg their currencies to gold, which will make it easier for them to do business and avoid dealing with the US.
    • The speaker discusses the devaluation of the dollar over time, inflation, and the disparity between the financial situation of the elites in Washington and the average person.
    • The speaker discusses the disconnect between the ruling government and the population, using the example of Dr Zhivago, and highlights the de-industrialization and falling standard of living in Germany due to bad policies and the unnecessary war on Russia.
    • The war in Ukraine may lead to a larger regional conflict that could potentially drag the US in, and the outcome will depend on who emerges triumphant within the administration, with the ideologically committed globalists wanting open borders and favoring criminals over citizens.
  • 28:17 Some individuals want to continue the war with Russia, while others are concerned about potential consequences; there are concerns about the government’s actions domestically and internationally, and if a crisis occurs, it could worsen the economy and weaken the credibility of the dollar system.
    • Some individuals want to continue the war with Russia, while others are concerned about the potential consequences and believe it should be ended.
    • The speaker suggests that there may be a conversation among those in power in Washington about potentially postponing or distorting future elections in order to maintain their rule, especially if the American people become outraged and they are unable to cheat their way through the next election.
    • Americans no longer trust the electoral process due to past instances of election theft, but unlike in 1960, Richard Nixon chose not to contest the stolen election because he believed President Kennedy would keep the country safe.
    • There are concerns about the government’s actions both domestically and internationally, and if a crisis occurs, it could worsen the economy and weaken the credibility of the dollar system.
  • 32:11 Colonel Douglas McGregor discusses corruption in the American political system, argues against US involvement in the Ukraine war, and calls for a third party in American politics.
    • The world is a scary place and people will continue to party and live extravagantly until it all falls apart.
    • Effective organization is needed on the right to combat corruption, demand proper action, and have legal protection and offense against the Democrats.
    • McGregor discusses the corruption and compromise within the American political system, where politicians are influenced by donors and are forced to join the corrupt system in order to survive and stay in office.
    • He argues that the United States should not be involved in the war in eastern Ukraine, but later changed his stance due to pressure from donors who support the war.
    • The political spectrum has completely realigned and both the Democratic and Republican parties no longer represent the people.
    • McGregor  argues for the need of a third party in American politics and emphasizes the importance of the American people demonstrating their disinterest in the two existing parties.

Andy Schectman: Silver Price Volatile In Week Since Fed Hike
Arcadia Economics ... (From August 2)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Silver Market and Buying Opportunities

  • The price of silver and gold experienced a slight increase following the Fed’s interest rate decision.
  • The growing list of countries moving against Western hegemony is a significant factor in the volatility of the silver price.
  • “This trend is growing and gaining credibility, pulling pieces of the Jenga tower out from the U.S hegemony.”
  • The increase in production of American Eagles by the U.S. mint has led to lower premiums and allows people to buy silver eagles at a reasonable price for the first time in almost four years.
  • The premiums on silver have collapsed and are now reasonable, making it a good time to accumulate silver.
  • “This is as good of a buying opportunity as I’ve seen literally in almost four years and I mean that 100 to my soul.”
  • “I’ve learned more from you than I have from any news station.”

Geopolitical Shifts and De-Dollarization

  • “The bricks ultimately will be the defining moment or catalyst for further and much more severe de-dollarization.”
  • “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization represents 60% of the Eurasian land mass and 40% of global GDP, making it the largest regional military and financial organization in the world.”
  • “Gdps when put together that are far greater than ours becomes very formidable when that announcement is made in conjunction with all of these countries who have unified in conjunction with the belief and realization that they will issue a commodity-backed currency.”
  • The speaker compares this potential shift to a game of Jenga, where the impact may be gradual at first but could eventually result in a sudden and significant change, similar to hitting a waterfall.
  • “When that switch gets flipped, everything that we know to be true in this country can change in the blink of an eye when the rest of the world has no longer any need for the dollar.”
  • “If you’re not prepared, you’re dead period.” – Andy Schectman emphasizes the importance of being prepared for what happens in the future.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Silver and gold prices have increased slightly due to the recent interest rate hike by the Fed, which may not be the last one despite market expectations, and there are potential risks in the banking system that may lead to a pause or easing by the Fed.
    • There will be reverberations and reactions to the recent interest rate hike by the FED, similar to what Japan and the UK experienced, causing silver and gold prices to increase slightly.
    • The market has been volatile since the Fed hike, but Andy is doing well and is looking forward to following up on the Sprott show.
    • The speaker discusses the uncertainty of the Fed’s interest rate hike and how it is dependent on data, with the feeling that it may not be the last hike despite the Futures markets pricing it in as such.
    • The speaker discusses the potential consequences of rising interest rates, increasing national debt, and the vulnerability of the banking system, suggesting that the next step for the Fed may be to pause or ease again, particularly due to the potential risks posed by commercial real estate loans.
  • 04:50 Big banks are experiencing significant withdrawals, raising concerns about the stability of the banking system, while the Fed’s ability to navigate the economic situation is being questioned, and rising energy prices could lead to higher inflation numbers.
    • Big banks like Wells Fargo and JP Morgan are seeing a significant amount of money being withdrawn, while regional banks are also at risk, leading to concerns about the overall stability of the banking system.
    • Despite the Fed’s claims of a stable banking system, another bank has failed, leading to speculation about the Fed’s ability to navigate the current economic situation.
    • If the Fed wanted to stop inflation, they could raise interest rates higher, but that would cause problems for the economy and the banking industry, and rising energy prices could lead to higher inflation numbers.
    • The economy’s reliance on easy money and low interest rates has created distortions and misallocations of capital that will be difficult to reverse without collapsing the entire system, as seen in Japan’s struggle to normalize their bond market.
    • The problem arises when bankers control interest rates instead of the market, leading to distorted asset prices and difficulties in normalizing the situation.
  • 10:02 Countries forming alliances and preparing to issue a commodity-backed currency, potentially eroding the value of the dollar as a reserve currency due to bond market instability and inflation caused by excessive debt.
    • Andy Schectman discusses his speech at a sprot show, which echoed what Jim Rickards had to say about the potential for a Brick’s announcement of a gold-back currency at their August meeting.
    • He believes that the issuance of a gold-backed currency by the BRICS countries will lead to further dollarization, but whether it happens on the 22nd is debatable and irrelevant, as there have been other developments that support this belief.
    • The Shanghai cooperation organization, Eurasian economic Union, Belt Road initiative, and bricks are all interconnected and together represent a significant portion of global GDP, with Saudi Arabia being the linchpin of the dollar hegemony.
    • Countries are forming alliances and preparing to issue a commodity-backed currency, which will make them economically and militarily formidable.
    • Saudi Arabia has decided to use the new BRICS settlement currency, the Yuan, which is immediately convertible into gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, making the BRICS and their growing coalition of countries a massive deal.
    • Schectman  discusses the potential impact of issuing a commodity-backed currency as a settlement currency, which could erode the value of the dollar as a reserve currency due to the instability of the bond market and inflation caused by excessive debt.
  • 17:36 Many countries are moving against Western hegemony and forming a coalition, with Iran joining the Shanghai cooperation organization and plans to use gold or a gold-backed currency for trade, while countries are also building a system to trade and settle using their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and potentially a BRICS currency.
    • Schectman discusses the interconnectedness of various organizations and trends, suggesting that the world is slowly changing and it is uncertain where we are in that process.
    • Many countries are moving against Western hegemony, and there is an expectation of a coalition forming on the 22nd to further this movement, which has been building for decades.
    • Iran has been welcomed into the Shanghai cooperation organization, which plans to use gold or a gold-backed currency for trade, and many countries are building a system to trade and settle using their own central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and potentially a BRICS currency.
  • 21:10 The growing trend of challenging U.S. hegemony and concerns about the erosion of confidence in the US raise the importance of focusing on potential global changes and being prepared for the future.
    • The growing trend of challenging U.S. hegemony is gaining credibility and should not be taken lightly, as people in the country have a tendency to have a short memory and bias towards normalcy.
    • Schectman emphasizes the importance of focusing on the larger scale and potential global changes, such as the possibility of multiple countries simultaneously dumping the dollar, rather than getting distracted by current issues and problems.
    • The erosion of confidence in the US due to issues like transgenderism, cancel culture, and unequal application of the law, along with the country’s massive debt and the insolvency of the Federal Reserve, raises concerns about how the world views the US and its stability, faith, and credit.
    • Prepare for the future because if you’re not ready, you’re in trouble.
  • 25:35 Large quantities of silver are being moved around, with premiums collapsing and the ability to buy silver eagles at a reasonable price, but potential bank failures and commercial real estate loan resets could impact the silver price.
    • There is a significant amount of silver being moved around, with large quantities being taken out of GLD and SLV, suggesting that it is being sent to places of more urgent need rather than being liquidated by vanilla investors.
    • The increase in production of American Eagles by the U.S. mint has led to lower premiums and the ability for people to buy silver eagles at a reasonable price for the first time in four years, impacting companies like the speaker’s, but even with the doubling of production, the mint has only produced between 12 and 15 million ounces this year.
    • Silver premiums have collapsed and fallen almost $4-5 an ounce in one week, making it a good time to accumulate silver, although the bid prices on items from the U.S. mint, such as the Silver Eagle, are still high.
    • Premiums on silver outside of Eagles have leveled off in the past week, despite a shortage in wholesale bars, and if a bank were to fail and be bailed in, it could potentially impact the retail market.
    • Over a trillion dollars worth of commercial real estate loans are set to be reset this year, with many regional banks at risk of going upside down and being bailed in, potentially causing a rapid change in the silver price.
    • Consolidations in the banking industry may eventually lead to bail-ins, and people tend to forget about past bank failures due to recency bias.
  • 31:43 Despite increasing demand and central banks buying more gold, many fail to realize the value of gold and silver; silver prices have been volatile since the Fed hike, presenting a buying opportunity, and there are considerations regarding the security and ease of transactions with newly graded silver eagles.
    • Despite the growing expansion into the hard asset community and the increasing demand for precious metals, many people still fail to realize the value of gold and silver, even with central banks buying more gold than ever before and a significant amount of chaos in the world.
    • Silver prices have been volatile since the Fed hike, presenting a great buying opportunity, and there are considerations regarding the security and ease of transactions when dealing with newly graded silver eagles.
    • Silver and gold have been used as money for thousands of years because their physical properties make it difficult to fake, and while there are some instances of fake items, it is not as common as people think.
    • Some people questioned the authenticity of Australian kangaroo coins, but they were proven to be real, which is an exception to the rule.
    • Avoid buying certified coins at a higher price from companies trying to instill fear and instead buy regular Silver Eagles from reputable companies in sealed boxes or keep paperwork to enhance legitimacy.
    • Gold and silver are currently on sale, with the 1/10 ounce gold eagle being a good option for those interested in bartering, while silver is still considered the best value.
  • 38:32 Andy appreciates the host’s work in providing important news and information, and emphasizes the importance of staying informed through alternative sources rather than relying solely on mainstream media.

Bob Moriarty: The Most Destructive Crash in Financial History
Palisades Gold Radio ... (From July 29)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Financial Instability and Market Predictions

  • “We live in a fantasy world. Now reality has been destroyed. This is the time that you really need to pay attention.”
  • The collapse of the debt system in the West is inevitable, regardless of the actions taken by the BRICS countries.
  • “We need to have the financial system collapse before those idiots in Washington start World War III, as it’s a better alternative that we can survive.”
  • Sentiment is simply the most valuable signals that you can possibly have with any investment at every high in any commodity or any Financial instrument.
  • “In March of 2000, when prisoners in a Baltimore jail were holding stock picking contests, I thought, ‘That’s the best possible signal you could ever have. This is a market top right now,’ and I called it literally to the day.”
  • “Commercial real estate’s crashing. The banks are crashing.” – Bob Moriarty highlights the current crash in commercial real estate and banking sectors, indicating potential financial instability.
  • “We’re going to have the biggest crash in world history and you know whether it’s in September or October or a year from now. I don’t know I just know it’s coming.”
  • “We need to go back to honest money and we need to start building the middle class rather than destroying the middle class.”
  • “If you can measure sentiment accurately and wait for excessive optimism or excessive pessimism, you can make significant returns in commodities.” – Bob Moriarty suggests that accurately measuring sentiment and timing market extremes can lead to profitable opportunities in commodities trading.
  • “I think the US dollar is terminal…the bad decisions the government has made, it’s terminal for the US Dollar.”

Geopolitical Manipulation and Consequences

  • The Canadian truck drivers had a significant impact on the government and proved who the good guys and bad guys were through their protests.
  • The United States potentially blew up three out of four pipelines to corner Europe and take away its bargaining power in terms of energy supply.
  • “The CIA and the Special Forces were training the terrorists that we were sending to Syria to overthrow the Assad government.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Gold is likely to increase in value due to the destruction of reality and the current fantasy world we live in, as a result of a dishonest financial system that is destroying the middle class and necessitates a return to honest money.
    • Gold is likely to increase in value due to the destruction of reality and the current fantasy world we live in, according to Bob Moriarty, founder of 321 Gold and 321 Energy.
    • Bob Moriarty, a former Marine Corps fighter pilot, discusses the possibility of snow in August in Canada.
    • The protests in France are being misrepresented in the media, with the true narrative being the opposite of what is being portrayed, similar to previous events such as Covid, Ukraine, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and the recent riots involving a young North African man who was shot by the police.
    • Unlimited immigration in the EU has led to a destruction of Sweden as a country, riots in various European cities, and a global uneasiness, all stemming from a dishonest financial system that is destroying the middle class and necessitates a return to honest money.
  • 05:54 The Canadian truck drivers’ protest exposed corruption and lack of protest in the US, while sanctions on Russia had negative consequences for the EU, dollar, NATO, and US, and the US’s failed wars and Germany’s ability to turn the gas back on highlight irrationality in the EU’s financial suicide and industrialization process, with an excessively cold winter predicted to cause increased deaths due to higher fuel prices.
    • The Canadian truck drivers’ spontaneous protest against the Canadian government’s policies had a significant impact, revealing the corruption and lack of protest in the United States.
    • Sanctions on Russia were a foolish decision that had negative consequences for the EU, the dollar, NATO, and the United States, and the speaker questions why Germany tolerated the United States’ actions.
    • The United States blew up three pipelines in an attempt to corner Europe and remove their bargaining power, but their incompetence in fighting wars was evident as they wasted trillions in Afghanistan and were defeated by sheep and goat herders.
    • If Germany can still make the decision to turn the gas back on, it doesn’t matter if three out of four pipes are destroyed, as the EU’s financial suicide and current process of industrialization is irrational.
    • An exceptionally mild winter is predicted to be followed by an excessively cold winter, resulting in increased deaths due to the higher prices of natural gas and fossil fuel for heating.
  • 13:30 Moriarty, discusses the devastating impact of weather on grape crops in Europe, predicts a worse energy crisis this year, criticizes the EU for their actions last year, and strongly opposes the war in Ukraine.
    • Moriarty discusses the devastating impact of the weather on grape crops in Europe, predicts a worse energy crisis this year, and criticizes the EU for their actions last year, which he considers to be a major act of terrorism.
    • The American people were not told the truth about the pipeline explosion, as the United States was involved but tried to shift blame onto other countries.
    • The war in Ukraine has caused millions of people to leave the country, which the EU cannot support, and the speaker is strongly against war and criticizes the United States for perpetuating it.
  • 18:23 The CIA’s ineffective war strategies and lack of planning have led to disastrous consequences, including training terrorists who turned against them, while the speaker questions the American people’s lack of protest towards the involvement of Joe Biden and Hunter Biden in bribery, and suggests that the BRICS countries may move towards a resource-based financial system backed by gold.
    • CIA’s ineffective war strategies involve insignificant attacks that do not contribute to winning the war.
    • Having a strategy is crucial in winning a war, but the CIA’s lack of planning and reliance on inexperienced individuals has led to disastrous consequences, such as training terrorists who later turned against them.
    • The King of Jordan orchestrated the murder of three Special Forces soldiers, including the speaker’s nephew, in order to promote the sergeant major responsible for the killings.
    • Moriarty highlights the pattern of losing wars and questions why the American people aren’t protesting the large amount of money being dumped into a corrupt country, suggesting that it may be due to the involvement of Joe Biden and Hunter Biden in bribery.
    • The BRICS countries are likely to move towards a resource-based financial system, potentially backed by gold, in response to the impending collapse of the debt system in the West.
  • 25:32 The French Revolution bankrupted France and led to a currency crisis, similar to the current situation in the US, and Moriarty discusses the conflict between the debt-based system of the West and the resource-based system of the East, stating that the financial system needs to collapse before a potential nuclear war.
    • The French Revolution was caused by the voluntary involvement of France in the American Revolution, which bankrupted Louis XVI and led to a currency crisis that is similar to the current situation in the United States.
    • France’s economy was destroyed after the revolution, but Napoleon restored wealth by returning to gold and silver, making France one of the richest countries in Europe, and now there are 40 countries interested in joining BRICS.
    • There may be a return to a gold-backed currency in the future, but it is uncertain when it will be announced and difficult to determine who is telling the truth.
    • Moriarty discusses the conflict between the debt-based system of the West and the resource-based system of the East, stating that the financial system is too corrupt to be fixed and needs to collapse before a potential nuclear war.
  • 30:40 Sentiment is a valuable signal for predicting market movements, with bullish sentiment indicating a market top and bearish sentiment indicating a market bottom; currently, sentiment for resource stocks is poor despite potential for a new high in gold.
    • Sentiment is a valuable signal in measuring the metals and making investment decisions, as it provides valuable information about highs in commodities and financial instruments.
    • Bullish sentiment and the number of reasons to buy indicate a market top, while bearish sentiment and the number of reasons to sell indicate a market bottom, making sentiment the most accurate signal for predicting market movements.
    • Moriarty accurately predicted the top in silver in 2000 and received hate mail from people who wanted to buy silver at higher prices, indicating that his measure of sentiment was correct, and currently, sentiment for resource stocks, particularly gold and silver, is poor despite the financial chaos in the world and the potential for a new high in gold.
    • There are currently many good deals in the market, with record highs in the stock market and crashing commercial real estate, but there is also concern about inflation and the need for a turn in the stock markets to bring interest back into the mining space.
  • 37:05 Moriarty predicts the biggest crash in world history, advocates for a reset to honest money, and recommends investing in low-priced stocks with high returns, particularly in the mining industry, while mentioning a book about a lucrative gold mine in Australia.
    • Extreme sentiment exists without a rational reason, but it is important to measure its existence.
    • Gold and silver sentiment is positive, but the stock market is dangerous, with a predicted crash similar to 1929, and Moriarty believes it will be the biggest crash in world history.
    • The financial system is in a critical state, with economists consistently getting it wrong, and it is time for a reset to honest money and rebuilding the middle class, while Moriarty is particularly attracted to miners and explorers due to their asymmetric nature.
    • Investing in low-priced stocks with high percentage returns, such as junior commodities, can be more profitable than investing in higher-quality assets, as demonstrated by the speaker’s personal experience with sugar.
    • There is a book about a gold mine in Australia that has been untouched for 150 years and is considered the greatest gold mine in history, with a story about the second richest man in Australia and his daughter receiving billions of dollars in royalties.
  • 44:42 Moriarty discusses the theory of gold precipitating out of salt water, the challenges of the mining business, the devaluation of the US dollar, censorship of climate change skeptics, and the importance of considering different perspectives, while emphasizing the need for individual education and decision-making.
    • Moriarty recounts a story about being asked to fly an airplane to Australia and being told about the lucrative iron ore fields along the way.
    • In this video, Moriarty discusses the theory that gold precipitated out of salt water in the presence of oxygen, and suggests that the world’s richest iron deposit would also indicate the world’s biggest and richest gold deposit, but this theory was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
    • Moriarty discusses the challenges of going into production in the mining business and the potential for making profits, including his personal experience of a 100% return on a stock in one day based on sentiment.
    • Moriarty discusses the devaluation of the US dollar and the potential for gold and silver to increase in value as a result, emphasizing that the value of gold remains constant while the value of the dollar fluctuates.
    • Moriarty discusses the censorship of a climate change skeptic by the IMF and emphasizes the importance of considering different perspectives, highlighting the control and propaganda surrounding various narratives, such as COVID-19 and the Ukraine war, while expressing hope for increased awareness and protests in the United States.
    • All articles mentioned can be found at 321gold.com and 321energy.com; this podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice, guests are not compensated for their appearance, listeners should educate themselves and make their own decisions.

‘There’s no bull market like a commodity bull market’ - Grant Williams
Kitco Mining ... (From August 3)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Importance of Commodities in Global Economy

  • Commodities provide a stable investment option in a complex and unpredictable financial ecosystem, making them an attractive choice for long-term capital.
  • “There’s no bull market like a commodity bull market, and they’re awesome to watch.”
  • The biggest geopolitical shift is happening as countries on the fringes of the US sphere of influence need to have a plan B in case they make a decision that the Americans don’t like, highlighting the importance of national security interests.
  • “If the world has reached the point where I need my gold, the price is gonna be a lot higher than it is now.” – Owning gold can provide a sense of security in uncertain times, as its value tends to increase during periods of crisis.
  • “If you look at the supply-demand situation and the need for commodities in a world where globalization is reversing, people are onshoring and building infrastructure themselves, there is a multi-year process of investment needed in this space.”
  • “These are vital Commodities that you can’t allow China to Corner the market in any one of them or the brics countries as a unit…it’s going to be a very different world.” – Grant Williams emphasizes the importance of not allowing China or other countries to dominate the commodity market, as it will significantly impact the global economy.
  • “China has strategically positioned itself as the main player in resources like lithium, graphite, Rare Earth elements, and nickel copper concentrates, making it challenging for the West to catch up.”

Learning from Financial Luminaries

  • Grant Williams aims to have meaningful conversations and learn valuable lessons from financial luminaries, rather than seeking quick stock tips or sound bites.
  • Understanding the decision-making process and experiences of successful investors and thinkers can provide valuable lessons for our own careers and lives for decades to come.
  • “If you keep bombarding them with charts and say ‘oh and here’s a chart,’ people kind of get lost and they turn their phone on. If it’s a story, you’re kind of conditioned to listen to it and stay with it.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Grant Williams discusses the current state of the commodity market and the various factors affecting it. 
  • 00:46 Commodities are a stable and sensible long-term investment in a shifting financial ecosystem, and with geopolitical shifts and the need for alternative reserve assets, there is potential for a strong bull market.
    • Commodities are a stable and sensible place to invest long-term capital in a complex and shifting financial ecosystem, and it is surprising that more people do not recognize their value and opportunities.
    • People have become more focused on stocks and short-term investments, but at some point, there will be a shift towards commodities, which have the potential for a strong bull market.
    • Geopolitical and financial cross-currents will come together, with politics now leading finance, as seen in the upcoming BRICS conference in South Africa.
    • The sanctioning of Russian Central Bank assets has caused a major geopolitical shift, making it imperative for countries on the fringes of the US sphere of influence to find an alternative to holding treasury bonds as a reserve asset, as the US government cannot reverse this decision and the uncertainty of the world makes it necessary to have a plan B for national security interests.
  • 04:45 Williams  believes that a recession is likely, but markets are not concerned due to expectations of rate cuts, however, the speaker warns that people have forgotten the severity of a real recession and highlights the problem of overvaluation and widespread ownership of a few big name stocks.
    • Williams  believes that while the likelihood of a recession is high, markets are not concerned because they believe central banks will cut rates, but the speaker thinks people have forgotten what a real recession looks like.
    • Investors’ love for a handful of big name stocks is problematic as their overvaluation and widespread ownership will lead to significant selling when the market turns.
  • 06:48 Despite challenges, central banks bought more gold in 2020 than they have since 1950, emphasizing the importance of owning gold for security and protection against inflation; there is potential for a gold mania with significant price moves, and more mergers in the gold sector are expected due to high demand and limited supply.
    • Gold has faced challenges in recent years, but despite this, central banks bought more gold last year than they have since 1950.
    • Williams  emphasizes the importance of owning gold rather than buying it as a trade, as it provides a sense of security and protection against inflation in a defensive market.
    • Gold stocks have been repairing their balance sheets and are in a better financial condition, but investors are still skeptical and there is a potential for a gold mania with significant price moves.
    • Executives in the commodity bull market tend to make mistakes and overpay for acquisitions, leading to the end of the bull market, but despite this, the speaker is optimistic about the future and believes that there will be more mergers in the gold sector due to the high demand and limited supply of gold.
    • The higher cost of capital and the quick movement of commodity markets will remain the same, but the trigger for a change in settlement is uncertain in the complex world.
    • Investing in gold and commodities with a long-term perspective is important due to the endless potential triggers and the need for investment in infrastructure, which provides a tailwind for the market.
  • 12:27 There is a growing competition for base industrial metals due to infrastructure development in Asia and the need to diversify dollar reserves, leading to a geopolitical battle for raw materials, making commodities increasingly important in the next 10-20 years.
    • Gold is seen as money rather than a commodity, but there is a growing competition for base industrial metals due to infrastructure development in Asia and the need to diversify dollar reserves, leading to a geopolitical battle for raw materials.
    • Washington Dulles Airport is shockingly old and poorly maintained, highlighting the lack of investment in infrastructure in the West.
    • Commodities will become increasingly important as raw materials and China’s influence on the market cannot be allowed to continue, leading to a significant shift in the world’s perception of commodities in the next 10-20 years.
    • Dallas airport is worse than LaGuardia, but LaGuardia has been improved.
  • 15:54 China’s dominance in key resources is a result of their long-term perspective and sensible decisions, while other countries have overlooked the importance of commodities, making commodity investment a crucial strategy for China’s stage of development.
    • China has become the dominant player in resources like lithium, graphite, rare earth elements, and nickel copper concentrates, and while it may seem like they have gotten ahead, they have simply taken a long-term perspective and made sensible decisions.
    • China’s focus on commodity investment is not about getting ahead, but rather a sensible strategy for an economy at its stage of development, while other countries have overlooked the importance of commodities.
    • Williams started a video series to have meaningful conversations with financial experts and learn valuable lessons, focusing on in-depth discussions rather than quick stock tips or sound bites.
    • Understanding the life and career decisions of successful investors and thinkers provides valuable information that can be applied to our own lives and careers for years to come.
  • 19:01 Conversations in interviews should be allowed to flow naturally to get the most out of people; the speaker discusses the importance of the dollar as a reserve currency and believes storytelling is an effective way to explain complex concepts.
    • Conversations in interviews should be allowed to flow naturally without time constraints in order to get the most out of people.
    • Williams will discuss the importance of the dollar as a reserve currency and provide a framework for understanding its future prospects.
    • Williams  believes that telling a story is an effective way to explain complex concepts because humans are hardwired to understand the world through stories, and it allows the audience to follow along and stay engaged.
  • 22:00 The entertaining aspect of delivering a message is important to engage and captivate the audience, as well as to ensure they remember the content.
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