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Top Ten Videos – January 8, 2024

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Doomberg: Expect Lower Oil Prices In The New Era Of Abundant Supply (Jan.4, 2024)

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 

The world is currently experiencing a period of relative energy abundance, leading to lower oil prices and a shift in the balance of power in the global energy market.

 

The cyclical nature of the oil market

 
  • “It is our view that the world has now shifted to a period where it’s pretty undeniable that we’re experiencing a period of relative energy abundance.”
  • “PE cheap oil is a myth” – controversial statement that provoked interesting response.
  • The quote “I’ve seen gluts not followed by shortages. But I’ve never seen a shortage not followed by a glut” highlights the cyclical nature of the oil market, challenging the common belief that oil would continue to get tighter.
  • The fallacy of looking at historical data without fully incorporating technological and political changes leads to mistaken beliefs about future oil prices.
  • “Oil’s future, at least measured in the rest of our lifetimes, is that line up and to the right, that sine wave traveling up and to the right where it’ll have its Peaks.”
  • With abundant supply and excess refining capacity, there is less need for crude imports, leading to lower oil prices in the new era.
  • The new era of abundant oil supply will lead to lower oil prices.
     

The expanding definition of oil

 
  • The world is amply supplied with an abundance of hydrocarbons, and the definition of oil historically used is too narrow.
  • The definition of oil is expanding, with more resources becoming reserves, leading to an abundance of supply in the future.
  • The definition of oil includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands, condensates, and ngls, which can impact the perception of oil production.
  • “Imagine if we took the technology perfected in the Canadian tarand and deployed it in Venezuela, which has the largest oil reserves in the world.”
  • Venezuela’s decline is a recent phenomenon, and it’s a scary question to ask what it takes for a country with immense riches to say there’s a better way to do things.
     

Geopolitical implications of abundant oil supply

 
  • The potential for the US to break up along energy production lines, with one “energy vassel” and the other being a major energy producer like Saudi Arabia, is becoming more mainstream and could shift the balance of power.
  • “I think that the Chinese economy remains the big question mark and no Western analyst can tell you with any sort of precision or confidence what’s going on inside that black box.”

The Bad News Hiding Behind the GDP and Jobs Numbers (Jan. 5, 2024)

Radio Rothbard...

Summary

 
 

The current job and GDP figures are masking the underlying weaknesses in the economy, and economists need to provide people with information that resonates with their real experiences.

 

Central Bank Intervention and Economic Health

 
  • The rising interest rates and falling money supply should have led to a bust in the bubble economy, but the job situation hasn’t worsened as expected.
  • The high percentage of government jobs created tends to peak right before recessions occur, indicating a potential problem in the current trend of government job creation.
  • The central banks are ensuring liquidity through shadow liquidity and exchange long-term dated bonds for cash at par, despite apparent declines in money supply.
  • The hidden bailout of banks through liquidity windows disguises the contraction in money supply and job creation.
  • The damage to the quality of bank balance sheets from central bank intervention is finally coming home to roost.
  • The concept of zombification of the economy by the Federal Reserve is a concerning reality that is being hidden behind the GDP and jobs numbers.
     

Misleading Economic Indicators

 
  • Job creation in the United States gives a false impression of strength, masking the underlying weaknesses in the economy.
  • It’s time for economists to strip away aggregated data and provide people with information that resonates with their real experiences, rather than relying on misleading job and GDP figures.
  • Small businesses, families, and productivity growth are lagging significantly, while the overall GDP figure is bloated by debt and government spending.
  • The perception of impoverishment of the middle class accelerates, despite the record level of jobs, raising concerns about the true state of the economy.

Hans-Hermann Hoppe: The Economic Doctrine of the Nazis (Feb.2, 2010)

LibertyinOurTime...

Summary

 

Hitler’s economic policies and national socialism led to a faster recovery from the Great Depression in Germany, focusing on stimulating savings, increasing productive output, and advocating for solidarity and the greater good of the community.

 
  • “Don’t stimulate consumption, instead stimulate savings, because what takes place in a recession is precisely a lack of savings that is revealed.”
  • The subject of unemployment: Germany’s unemployment fell to less than one percent in 1938, while the United States still stood at about 15 percent at the beginning of the war.
  • Hitler’s economic policies saw significant growth in GNP, industrial output, and real wages, reaching 1928 income levels by 1936.
  • Hitler’s core belief was the subordination of the individual and his selfish sentiments to the greater good, namely the community.
  • The Nazi economic doctrine emphasizes the importance of economic selection and the rise of the better, while eliminating the worse and weak.

Debt: The First 5,000 Years (Feb.8, 2012)

Talks at Google...

Summary

 
 

Debt has a powerful hold over people’s imaginations and history, but forgiveness is the true sacred act, and throughout history, debt cancellation and land redistribution have been the primary revolutionary program.

 

The Moral Power of Debt

 
  • The idea of debt has a hold over people’s imaginations, to the point where morality is thought of as a matter of paying one’s debts.
  • The Buddhist story of premature reincarnation highlights the potential consequences of owing or collecting debt.
  • Debt creates a moral ambivalence in human relations, where one party is in moral peril and the other is probably in peril as well.
  • The association of money and violence is a constant, and it helps to explain a lot about why debt tends to take on this incredibly powerful moral hold.
  • Debt between equals is not treated as sacred, but debt between people on top and bottom takes on a different color due to extreme inequality.
  • David Graeber argues that debt is not just an economic concept, but a moral and political one as well.
  • “Debt is a way of turning human beings into collateral.”
     

The History and Nature of Debt

 
  • The history and nature of debt, including its moral power, is a complex and surprising topic worth exploring.
  • Despite debt being a pervasive aspect of modern life, there has never been a comprehensive history of debt written.
  • The resistance to changing the textbook narrative on the origins of money highlights the power of common sense and the difficulty of challenging established beliefs.
  • Money is a social construct that evolved from barter and credit systems, and its value is based on a collective belief in its worth.
  • Credit comes first, and by the time the curtain comes up around 3500 B.C., in Mesopotamia, you already have very elaborate credit systems.
  • A Jubilee, or debt forgiveness, could be a useful idea to reconceptualize the system and realize that money isn’t what we thought it was.
     

Debt as a Political and Social Issue

 
  • IMF budget cuts for debt rescheduling can have deadly consequences, such as the withdrawal of support for mosquito eradication programs leading to a malaria epidemic that killed thousands.
  • The majority of rebellions and revolutions throughout history have been about debt, with the revolutionary program being to cancel debts and redistribute land.
  • We’re doing things backwards by setting up institutions like the IMF to protect creditors against debtors, instead of protecting debtors to prevent debt crises.
  • Social movements around issues of debt recognize that money is just a promise we make to each other, and if democracy is to mean anything, everyone should weigh in on what promises are made and renegotiated.
  • The majority of social movements in history have been about debt, including debt strikes and seizing and destroying records.
 

Marc Faber: Diversifying Investments Globally in Uncertain Times (Jan. 6, 2024)

The Jay Martin Show...

Summary

 

Diversifying investments globally, especially in emerging markets, is crucial in uncertain times to take advantage of diverse asset classes and geographic locations, with a focus on international diversification for retail investors and emerging markets.

 

  • Investing in high inflation countries can offer outstanding opportunities due to currency collapse exceeding stock market appreciation.
  • Dr. Mark Faber emphasizes the importance of international diversification for the average retail investor.
  • Investing in Asia or Southeast Asia is seen as a bullish move due to potential geopolitical and economic advantages.
  • Hong Kong and China are very cheap investment opportunities at the present time.
  • The implications of geopolitical events, such as Russia being kicked out of the Swift system, on the movement of money across borders and the global economy.
  • Opportunities in Asia have increased significantly over the years, making it a more attractive investment destination than in the past.
  • The US government’s unfunded liabilities and rapidly increasing interest expense on debt may lead to the option of defaulting.
  • Inflation is a tax that arises when the spending of a government exceeds the tax revenues, and this tax will go up dramatically as time goes by.
  • The government manipulates inflation rates to justify printing more money and cutting interest rates, despite the true cost of living increasing.

Michael Pento: Unmasking The BS Jobs Report (Jan.4, 2024)

Financial Survival Network...

Summary

 

The economy and markets are artificial and susceptible to massive air pockets in valuation and prices, with the risk of high inflation and the impact of monetary policy potentially leading to deadly ramifications for the economy.

 
  • The construct of the economy and the markets are so artificial, absolutely susceptible to massive air pockets in valuation and prices.
  • The risk of high inflation and the impact of monetary policy on the US dollar and treasury market could have deadly ramifications for the economy.
  • The risk of long-term interest rates rising instead of falling during a recession could lead to a massive debacle in the bond market and a bare market in treasuries.
  • Every crisis is met with the same prescription: cutting interest rates, printing money, and monetizing debt.
  • The purchasing power of the US dollar against gold has significantly decreased, making the currency “crap.”
  • He believes the FED’s reaction to recessionary data will be too little, too late, potentially leading to a range of outcomes including the possibility of launching a “helicopter money” squadron.
  • Deficits may provide short-term stimulus, but in the long run, they create a condition of stagflation and are productivity killers.
  • Gold follows real interest rates, so if they are falling, gold is going to skyrocket.

Alasdair Macleod: Dollar Dumping & Credit Crisis In 2024 (Jan.3, 2023)

Liberty and Finance...

Summary

 

The FED’s shift to fighting the debt problem instead of inflation, along with the instability of the banking system and the potential insolvency of federal treasuries, makes gold a favored safe haven and savings account outside the system.

 

Risks and Consequences of Credit and Debt

 
  • The FED is now trying to fight the debt problem instead of inflation, which is not good news for foreign dollar holdings.
  • Credit is the way the world works. We don’t use money. We money is just there to back up credit in terms of value.
  • If the faith in a currency starts evaporating, it doesn’t matter how much of it is in circulation.
  • The stability of the banking system is at risk due to the increasing leverage of banks and the toxic nature of their collateral.
  • The pivot from commercial banks to treasuries to reduce risk may not be as safe as people think, especially with the insolvency of the federal treasures.
  • The inflationary consequences of Central Bank credit are far greater than the expansion of Commercial Bank credit.
     

Gold as a Safe Haven and Currency

 
  • The technical analysis chart looks absolutely wonderful, breaking out of a two and a half year sideways move.
  • The situation going into 2024 looks to be as positive as you can rarely get, with very few people really long on gold.
  • Gold is money and the rest is credit, a message that is important for everyone to understand going into 2024.
  • There will be far more consistent pricing in Gold than in the collapsing value of the dollar.
  • Gold’s unique role as money and its recognizability internationally make it the favored safe haven or savings account outside the system.

Alasdair Macleod : 2024: A Year Of Geopolitical Crisis (Jan.3, 2024)

Liberty and Finance...

Summary

 

People need to understand and protect themselves from the accelerating debasement of paper currencies and the escalating geopolitical crisis in 2024.

 
  • People need to understand and protect themselves from the accelerating debasement of paper currencies.
  • The geopolitical crisis in 2024 is escalating rapidly, with Russian missile activity accelerating and putting pressure on Ukraine.
  • The growing unity among Arab nations and the restoration of relationships between Iran and Saudi Arabia pose a significant concern for Israel.
  • The conflict between Israel and Hamas is deeply rooted in historical and religious tensions, triggering widespread support for the Palestinians from the Muslim world.
  • Russia’s control in the Middle East and collaboration with Iran is aimed at making life difficult for the Americans and ultimately defeating them in Ukraine and expelling them from the Middle East.
  • The West will find itself outnumbered as over 60% of world GDP and population is outside of the Western countries.

Jim Rickards Shocks The World With His New 2024 Predictions (Jan. 4, 2024)

Rebel Capitalist...

Summary

 

Jim Rickards predicts a global recession and potential financial crisis in 2024, with high oil prices, low approval ratings for Biden, and a fragile global monetary system contributing to the predicted events.

 
  • Jim Rickards’ 2024 predictions are worth looking into, as his past geopolitical predictions have all come to fruition.
  • Controversial prediction of a different Democratic nominee, possibly Gavin Newsom, replacing Biden before the next election.
  • A rare global recession will result in 2024 due to interconnected banking networks and systemic risk.
  • Escalation scenarios in the Middle East could lead to a spike in oil prices, potentially reaching $150 a barrel.
  • The impact of high energy costs could lead to businesses going bust, laying off workers, and ultimately causing unemployment to rise.
  • Jim Rickards predicts a potential market crash of over 30% on recession alone and as much as 50% if either Ukraine or Israel escalates or a global financial crisis emerges.
  • The new crisis will be focused on midsize regional banks, potentially causing a new global financial crisis.
  • Conditions are set up for a GFC 2.0 due to the incredibly fragile monetary system.

Looking at 2024: Extreme Event Risk & Gold’s Open Rise (Jan. 6, 2024)

Gold Switzerland...

Summary

 

The global economy is facing significant risks, including potential oil blockades, stock market bubbles, inflation, and geopolitical tensions, making gold a crucial asset for wealth preservation and protection.

 

  • The Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are major risk areas, with potential for blocking 30% of the world’s oil by the Iranians.
  • The stock market is in a massive bubble and could see a very vicious fall in the coming years.
  • The idea that we’ve defeated inflation is a complete fantasy, and more money printing over the next 10 years will lead to inflation coming back.
  • Gold reached all-time highs despite traditional headwinds, showing its resilience as an asset.
  • The risk of escalation in the Middle East is very high, leading to potential disaster.
  • All market events stem from the central problem of debt, making gold a crucial part of wealth preservation.
  • The importance of storing gold outside of banks and in safe jurisdictions is crucial for sophisticated investors in a fractured world.
  • “Your other assets are going to start falling rapidly in the next few months and then the next few years.” – A warning about the potential decline of other assets, emphasizing the importance of holding onto gold for protection.
 
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