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Top Ten Videos – July 16 2023

Looming Credit Collapse To Tank Stocks AND Bonds? | Alasdair McLeod
Wealthion ... (From July 10)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Currency and Credit Collapse

  • “All of the world’s major Fiat currencies were in the process of failing far faster than many are imagining.”
  • The looming credit collapse could potentially tank both stocks and bonds, raising concerns about the stability of the financial markets.
  • There is a looming shortage of credit and a crisis in refinancing, particularly in the mortgage field, which could have significant implications for the economy.
  • McLeod mentions the potential of a credit collapse and the possibility of a nuclear war in Ukraine, highlighting the significant challenges and risks faced by the global economy.
  • “I was sort of hearing stagflation…do you sort of predict stagflation for the West here? Yes, inevitably that is the case.”
  • “Americans think our currency is perfectly safe, but the looming credit collapse could lead to a serious problem that is not recognized by many.”
  • Central banks are in deep negative equity and are underwater due to their actions of lowering interest rates and buying bonds at the top of the market, posing a major problem for the financial system.
  • “It’s not a rise in the general level of prices. It is a loss of purchasing power of the currency.”
  • The events in the financial market are potentially cataclysmic, indicating a looming credit collapse that could have significant consequences for stocks and bonds.

Global Economic Imbalances

  • “The world is split into two halves, with the economy we all follow (America, Europe, Japan) and the economy we don’t follow (Asia, Russia, China, BRICS), and it seems that the latter will increase quite materially after the meeting in Johannesburg.”
  • Foreigners hold a massive amount of US bank deposits, bond investments, and equities, totaling more than $30 trillion, which is greater than the US GDP.
  • The history of price volatility in Canadian residential property, particularly in cities like Vancouver and Toronto, suggests that Canada may be facing one of the worst housing bubbles in the world.
  • The global banking system, particularly in the Eurozone, is facing significant difficulties and may require rescue due to overleveraged businesses and potential losses, which could further impact interest rates and financial stability.

Safe Haven Assets and Financial Stability

  • “The answer for investors is to protect their Capital by getting into physical gold coin or bullion.”
  • “The whole credit system is liable to implode and under those circumstances you want to get out of it by getting into real money, that’s hoarding gold.”
  • Gold may benefit from the potential credit collapse, as investors may turn to it as a safe haven asset, leading to an increase in its value.
  • “The possible benefits of a collapse of the current system is a new system which will allow us to progress Our Lives again.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Investors should sell their investments and protect their capital as the credit system is at risk of collapsing, which could be difficult for professional investment managers, while the global economy is divided with familiar economies experiencing a credit crunch and Asian economies expected to grow; water utilities in England are facing a severe crisis, the escalating situation in Ukraine could lead to a war driving up commodity prices, and the looming credit crisis combined with the rise in bond yields and distortion of equity markets poses a serious threat to financial asset values, worsened by China and Russia’s plan for an industrial revolution in Asia.
    • Investors should consider selling their investments and protecting their capital as the credit system is at risk of collapsing, which would be extremely difficult for professional investment managers.
    • Alasdair McLeod returns to discuss the latest details and timing of his outlook, with lots to talk about and setting the context for viewers.
    • The global economy is divided into two sections, with the familiar economies experiencing a credit crunch and banks becoming more cautious about lending due to significant risk, while the Asian economies are expected to grow after a meeting in Johannesburg.
    • Water utilities in England, particularly Thames water, are facing a severe crisis due to high levels of debt and difficulty in refinancing, which is indicative of an upcoming credit crisis and shortage of credit.
    • The escalating situation in Ukraine could lead to a war that neither NATO nor Russia can afford to lose, potentially driving up commodity prices and eliminating any hope of lower prices.
    • The looming credit crisis, combined with the rise in bond yields and the distortion of equity markets, poses a serious threat to financial asset values, while China and Russia’s plan to engender an industrial revolution throughout Asia could further worsen the situation for the US.
  • 09:11 A potential credit collapse and the undermining of the US dollar as a reserve currency could have significant consequences for the US economy and global markets.
    • McLeod discusses the challenges of the war in Ukraine and suggests that Russia may be the best place to live due to its low taxes and business opportunities.
    • China is looking to invest more in the Asia Pacific region to create a sustainable consumer-based economy, which is causing a divide between Team West and Japan versus Team Asia/BRICS.
    • McLeod  predicts that a credit crunch and potential escalation in Ukraine could lead to stagflation in the West, as seen in previous fiat currency collapses.
    • The potential undermining of the dollar as a reserve currency could make it difficult for the US government to fund its deficit, as foreigners may no longer be interested in maintaining large dollar positions, which could have significant consequences for the US economy.
    • McLeod highlights the potential for a significant credit collapse that is not widely recognized by Americans, emphasizing the importance of the US dollar as an international currency and questioning the rationale behind the substantial investment in US equities.
    • Foreigners holding UK currency may sell it when rising interest rates destabilize the economy, which Americans should consider when looking at the dollar from a foreign perspective.
  • 16:25 The looming credit collapse could have a significant impact on stocks and bonds, with the US housing market at a standstill and mortgage rates rising, leading to a squeeze on homeowners and potential decrease in consumer spending.
    • McLeod  discusses the looming credit collapse and its potential impact on stocks and bonds, highlighting the recent yield crisis and the developing crisis in the mortgage market.
    • The US housing market is currently at a standstill with sellers and buyers reluctant to make transactions, while in the UK, the housing market is experiencing re-rating shocks as approximately 20% of housing stock is repriced every year.
    • McLeod  discusses the current state of the US market, noting similarities to the early stages of a bear market and the uncertainty surrounding prices and transactions.
    • As mortgage rates rise, people with fixed-rate mortgages are facing increasing costs and struggling to afford their mortgages, leading to a significant squeeze on them.
    • The lag effect of the credit collapse will have a shorter impact in the US compared to Canada, as the rewriting of mortgages will lead to a decrease in consumer spending and a faster economic downturn.
    • The cost of mortgage finance and the potential collapse of credit will greatly impact property prices, particularly in commercial real estate and private equity.
  • 24:23 A looming credit collapse could lead to a major market correction, as banks reduce lending and credit creation, causing a decrease in bond values and potential collapse in stocks and bonds worldwide.
    • Thames water’s reliance on low-rate refinancing and the need for refinancing is a problem not only for the UK but also for utilities and corporations worldwide.
    • Banks are becoming fearful of losses and are reducing lending and credit creation, leading to a stalling money supply and potential collapse in stocks and bonds.
    • The undercapitalization and rising interest rates are causing the value of bonds to decrease, particularly in Europe where banks are avoiding commercial lending and investing in derivatives and bonds with negative interest rates.
    • Central banks, including the FED, ECB, Bank of Japan, and Boe, are in deep negative equity due to their actions of lowering interest rates and buying bonds at the top of the market, which poses a major problem for the financial system.
    • The speaker discusses the increasing unease in the credit markets and the potential for a credit collapse to cause a significant market correction.
    • It is inevitable that a credit collapse will occur in the near future, and investors should protect their capital by taking their money out of the credit system and investing in physical gold.
  • 31:58 House prices in London and the price of oil have increased in currency terms, but when compared to gold, the increase is much smaller, indicating currency devaluation; investing in gold is advised as insurance against the impending credit collapse.
    • House prices in London have increased significantly in terms of currency, but when compared to the price of gold, the increase is much smaller, indicating the devaluation of the currency; similarly, the price of oil in dollars has skyrocketed since 1971, but in terms of gold, it has only doubled, suggesting manipulation of the gold price to maintain the perception of its value.
    • The distortion caused by fiat currency introduces uncertainty in assessing the current economic situation, and as the credit system is at risk of collapsing, it is advisable to invest in gold as a form of insurance against the impending crisis.
    • McLeod  maintains their view that the dollar will experience a significant decline in value, and suggests that if the trade weighted index breaks a certain level, it would signal a serious problem for the dollar.
    • McLeod  suggests that the dollar may break a certain level, which could signal to foreigners to sell their dollars and potentially lead to a race to the bottom in currencies.
    • Inflation is not a rise in general prices, but a loss of currency purchasing power, which could be worsened by supply issues and the devaluation of fiat currency, while the Chinese economy’s recovery may impact commodity markets.
    • China needs certain elements for themselves because they trade with the rest of the world and these elements are important for military applications, vehicles, and green energy.
  • 40:27 The potential collapse of credit could impact the dollar as a reserve currency, leading to uncertainty and a decline in its value, while gold may benefit.
    • McLeod  suggests that the dip in commodities will not last forever and predicts that the re-escalation of the Ukraine situation by President Putin could cause commodities to improve sooner, which is unwelcome pressure for Russia due to the decline in their trade surplus.
    • There are rumors of a new gold-backed currency being announced at the BRICS meeting, and there have been efforts to create regional trade currencies, indicating a potential shift away from the current financial system.
    • Russia, China, and other Asian countries are working together to extend the Glazier project, which will likely result in the creation of a new currency.
    • The potential collapse of credit could have a significant impact on the dollar as a reserve currency, leading to uncertainty and a potential decline in its value, while gold may benefit from this situation.
    • McLeod  discusses the potential cataclysmic events in the financial market and offers to come back to deconstruct any announcements made at a meeting.
  • 45:50 Central banks may resort to credit inflation and massive expansion to rescue the banking system, potentially leading to higher gold prices and undermining currency purchasing power, with the Euro at risk of collapse due to the struggle to recapitalize central banks and the European Central Bank.
    • Central banks are likely to resort to stimulating the economy through credit inflation and massive expansion to rescue the banking system, which could lead to a higher gold price and undermine the purchasing power of currencies.
    • Central banks, including the ECB, are facing negative equity and potential losses due to quantitative easing programs, with the Bank of England being the only one to have a guarantee from the treasury to cover any losses.
    • McLeod  explains that the current credit crisis could lead to the collapse of the Euro, as the central banks will struggle to recapitalize themselves and the European Central Bank due to the multitude of national central banks involved.
    • McLeod discusses the potential collapse of credit, which could lead to a decrease in the value of currencies and a diminished purchasing power of fiat currencies.
    • McLeod  discusses the possibility of a credit collapse leading to a new system that allows for progress in our lives, but acknowledges the challenges and hopes for a better future for our children and relatives.
    • They may consider implementing a new fiat currency, returning to a gold-backed currency, or exploring a blockchain-based currency solution as a response to the looming credit collapse.

The Fed Won't Stop Until the Market Drops 50% to 70% Predicts Bubba Horwitz
Stansberry Research ... (From July 15)

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • “They took a pause but more rate hikes are coming.”

    “The FED is nowhere near done…they have to go to get there well. It’s probably…up to about six percent which is where we’re probably gonna go and we’re going to destroy another big piece of The Middle class because they won’t be able to afford to live in the environment that we’re in right.”

    “Before this move is over we will see 50 to 70 percent to the downside and I stand by that this rally is as artificial as it can possibly be.”

    “The Fed won’t stop until the market drops 50% to 70%.”

    The introduction of a new trading currency backed by gold by the BRICS countries signifies a desire to take the central banking system out and establish a currency with absolute value.

    “I’m a buyer of gold regardless of what’s going on in the data… I think gold is a buy at any time because you’re playing the long term.”

    Bubba Horwitz predicts that the market will drop 50% to 70% due to the actions of the Federal Reserve.

    The existence of UFO sightings and the possibility of extraterrestrial life remains a topic of speculation and intrigue, with some lawmakers claiming to have seen classified UFO footage.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Wall Street Legends Marc Jacob and Dr. David Ifrig will discuss the potential of AI and its impact on the market, urging viewers to consider the opportunities and make informed investment decisions.
  • 01:31 Horwitz predicts that the Federal Reserve’s actions will lead to a significant market drop of 50% to 70% as they continue to raise interest rates, despite misleading inflation numbers.
    • Horwitz believes that the reported inflation numbers are misleading and that inflation is still increasing, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is using these numbers as an excuse for their actions.
    • Horwitz argues that the government’s reported inflation numbers do not align with the reality of rising prices in everyday goods, and suggests that the Federal Reserve’s actions are contributing to inflation and will eventually lead to a significant market drop.
    • He believes that despite a temporary pause, more rate hikes are coming and predicts that the 10-year notes will reach six percent, which will have an impact on mortgages.
    • The Fed will continue raising interest rates until they reach their target of 2%, which is wrong because the current rate is over 4%, and this will likely lead to a 6% rate and further harm the middle class.
  • 05:19 Horwitz predicts a 50-70% market drop due to a recession, artificial market rally, rising interest rates, collapsing housing market, and struggling commercial real estate and retail stores.
    • He believes that we are currently in a recession, regardless of what some economists may say, due to factors such as lack of jobs and a breakdown in the housing and commercial real estate markets.
    • He speaker predicts that the current market rally is artificial and driven by retail traders, and expects a 50 to 70 percent market drop in the near future.
    • Interest rates rising, housing market collapsing, commercial real estate and retail stores experiencing more pain will eventually lead to a market drop.
  • 08:01 The speaker predicts a 50% to 70% market drop due to tensions, and discusses the potential impact of a gold-backed trading currency on the US dollar.
    • Horwitz believes that tensions will arise in the market leading to a significant drop, and discusses the possibility of a new trading currency backed by gold as a potential blow to the US dollar.
    • Horwitz suggests that they only get their news from the person they are speaking to and implies that it hasn’t changed anything for them.
  • 09:48 Gold and Bitcoin are both good long-term investments due to their potential for growth and appeal as decentralized currencies.
    • Gold is a good long-term investment and physical gold is preferable to paper gold, while Bitcoin is also a good investment due to its potential for growth and its appeal as a decentralized currency.
    • He discusses the intangible nature of something and finds it interesting.
  • 12:04 Horwitz predicts a 50% to 70% market drop due to the Federal Reserve’s actions, while expressing concern over the lack of fair justice and the rise of fringe candidates indicating dissatisfaction with the current system.
    • Bitcoin ETFs and the introduction of liquid options will make Bitcoin more attractive for trading and ownership, while the lack of fair and equal justice in the handling of Hunter Biden’s case is concerning.
    • The speaker discusses the potential impact of the Federal Reserve’s actions on the market and expresses skepticism towards the current political system, mentioning the popularity of Robert Kennedy Jr and the challenges of defeating an incumbent.
    • The rise of fringe candidates indicates that people are becoming fed up with the current system.
  • 15:22 Horwitz criticizes the government for mishandling money and neglecting the average American, expressing concern about various societal issues, while also mentioning recent UFO sightings and speculation about extraterrestrial technology.
    • Horwitz criticizes the government for mishandling money and neglecting the average American, expressing concern about the state of patriotism and the various issues plaguing the education, family, and political systems.
    • There have been recent UFO sightings and speculation about extraterrestrial technology, but the speaker has not personally seen any and is unsure about their existence.
  • 17:13 Horwitz believes that the Federal Reserve will continue its actions until the market experiences a significant drop of 50% to 70%.

Central Bank Gold Repatriation Will Squeeze the Gold Shorts
maneco64 ... (From July 12)

The repatriation of gold by central banks could expose price manipulation, decrease availability of leased gold, and potentially impact the price of gold.

Quick Summary Bullet Points:

  • “Gold repatriation is important because it exposes the abuse and manipulation of the stock market, particularly in the city of London and the comex in New York.”
  • “A lot of the gold being sold in the market is actually borrowed and doesn’t even exist, artificially affecting the price of gold.”
  • Central banks have been questioning the need to keep their gold with the Bank of England or the New York Fed, leading to a shift in gold storage preferences.
  • “A growing number of countries are bringing their physical gold reserves back home to avoid Russian-style sanctions on their foreign assets while increasing their purchases of the precious metal as a hedge against high levels of inflation.”
  • Gold repatriation has historically resulted in a sharp increase in gold prices, indicating the potential impact on the market.
  • “That pesky country Venezuela under Hugo Chavez demanded that the Bank of England send 160 tons of their gold back to Caracas from London and we know what happened to the price of gold.”
  • The repatriation of Central Bank gold could potentially lead to the closure of many short positions, causing the price of gold to rise significantly.
  • Rising yields are not good as it means bond prices go down, mortgage rates go higher, and the cost of funding the government increases.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Central Bank gold repatriation is important because it exposes the manipulation of gold prices through short selling in the stock market.
  • 02:14 Central banks in London and New York lease gold multiple times, leading to artificial price manipulation and hypothecation in the city of London.
    • Central banks in London and New York lease their gold multiple times, leading to hypothecation and re-hypothecation without limits in the city of London.
    • Banks like J.P Morgan and Barclays borrow and sell gold that doesn’t actually exist, artificially affecting the price, with London being the center of this manipulation.
  • 04:38 Central banks are repatriating their gold from the Bank of England due to a lack of trust, potentially impacting the price of gold.
    • The Bank of England’s gold holdings have significantly dropped in the past year, indicating a trend of gold repatriation from other central banks, which has implications for the price of gold.
    • Central banks are realizing that they cannot trust institutions like the Bank of England, as evidenced by historical events such as the theft of Czechoslovak gold by Germany in 1938.
  • 07:41 Central banks are repatriating and buying physical gold as a hedge against sanctions, inflation, and volatile bond prices.
    • Countries are repatriating their physical gold reserves to protect against sanctions and inflation, while central banks globally are making record purchases of gold in preparation for a potential gold-backed trading system.
    • Central banks are repatriating their gold reserves and buying physical gold in response to global tensions and concerns about inflation and volatile bond prices.
  • 10:21 Central bank repatriation of gold could impact the price of gold, as it could end price manipulation and decrease the availability of leased gold from the Bank of England and the New York Fed.
    • Central bank repatriation of gold could significantly impact the price of gold due to the potential end of price manipulation and the selling of gold that they don’t have.
    • If countries repatriate their gold, the Bank of England and the New York Fed will have less gold to lease, which could lead to potential risks and a decrease in the price of gold.
  • 12:52 Central bank repatriation of gold caused the price of gold to soar, with Venezuela’s demand for repatriation in 2011 leading to an all-time high, and the UK blocking their request for 14 tons in 2018.
    • In 2011, Venezuela demanded the repatriation of 160 tons of gold from the Bank of England, causing the price of gold to reach an all-time high, and by 2012, Venezuela had moved 160 tons of gold back to their country from American, European, and Canadian banks.
    • Venezuela requested 14 tons of gold in 2018, but the UK blocked it, and the speaker speculates that the 160 tons of gold that were moved quickly from Venezuela to Caracas in 2011 were known about in advance, which contributed to the increase in price.
  • 15:21 Central banks repatriating gold could increase the price and expose the London New York suppression scheme, urging banks to cover their shorts and prompting the Global South and Emerging Markets to end the paper game and distrust the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve.
    • Central banks repatriating their gold could force banks to cover their shorts, leading to a potential increase in the price of gold and potentially exposing the London New York suppression scheme.
    • Central banks, particularly those in the Global South and Emerging Markets, should repatriate their gold from London and New York to end the paper game and avoid trusting the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve.
  • 18:22 Gold and silver prices are rising while the dollar is decreasing, suggesting a potential squeeze on gold shorts, and rising yields in the bond market could lead to lower bond prices, higher mortgage rates, and increased government funding costs in the future.
    • Gold and silver prices are increasing, while the value of the dollar is decreasing, indicating a potential squeeze on gold shorts.
    • Rising yields in the bond market are not good as it leads to lower bond prices, higher mortgage rates, and increased government funding costs, and although the 10-year yield is currently below four percent, it is expected to rise in the medium to long term.

Luke Gromen: Rising Rates are No Longer Bad for Gold
Palisades Gold Radio ... (From July 14)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Concerns about Fiscal Dominance and Inflation

  • “The more the FED raises rates, the more inflation is actually going to go up because the more deficits are going to go up.” – Luke Gromen suggests that rising rates may actually lead to increased inflation, challenging the traditional belief that rising rates are bad for gold.
  • “If the world returned to two percent inflation rates, the U.S would be facing an immediate fiscal dominance problem.”
  • “The sooner we get the real rates and if we get to positive two we’re going to be in it which is this Paradox right because you hear most of the discussion in macros well. The FED has to fight inflation so they’ve got to get the positive real rates again and what this white paper says is. They get the positive real rights.” – The paradox of needing positive real rates to fight inflation while also impacting bank profitability.
  • Many countries are realizing that achieving a 2% inflation target is unrealistic if they want to avoid a financial crisis.
  • The math is now so obvious that accepting higher inflation is necessary for systemic stability, even if it goes against political considerations.
  • “Why can Japan have deflation yet the U.S not be able to withstand anything but inflation?” – Gromen raises the question of the differences between the debt systems and balance sheets of Japan and the U.S., challenging the conventional understanding of inflation and deflation dynamics.
  • The current situation of high debt-to-GDP ratios and large deficits in the United States raises concerns about the ability of the government to handle higher rates on treasury issues and the potential for fiscal dominance, where the Federal Reserve loses control of inflation.
  • Historically, the dollar preserves its dominance by forcing nations to collapse before the U.S. banking system does, making it a relative game of who hits the wall first.
  • Rising inflation and energy prices will have significant impacts on financial markets due to high debt and deficits.
  • “When there’s that much leverage in the system, things are going to break super fast and when there’s that much leverage in the system, when one thing breaks fast, everything breaks fast.” – Luke Gromen on the nature of leverage and its impact on the financial system.

Impact of Rising Rates on Gold

  • Rising rates are no longer negative for gold because it introduces increased solvency risk to Western sovereigns and increases fiscal dominance risk, which is positive for gold.
  • Rising rates are no longer bad for gold.

Challenges to Traditional Beliefs

  • “We live in a fantasy world. Now reality has been destroyed. This is the time that you really need to pay attention.”
  • “Rising rates are no longer bad for gold” – Luke Gromen suggests that gold can still perform well despite increasing interest rates, challenging the traditional belief.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Gold is expected to increase in value due to factors such as increased Central Bank gold buying, the need for energy prices to rise, and the high debt levels of Western sovereigns, making rising rates no longer negative for gold, and while trading during this unprecedented time may be difficult, the end game is clear and the speaker advises staying unlevered and waiting for increased liquidity from the Fed.
    • Gold is expected to increase in value due to the current economic environment.
    • Gold has started to separate from its correlation with real rates and is likely to continue to do so throughout the decade due to factors such as increased Central Bank gold buying, the need for energy prices to rise, and the high debt levels of Western sovereigns, making rising rates no longer negative for gold.
    • Rising rates are no longer bad for gold as seen in past instances in Latin America, Russia, and Southeast Asia, and the Western banking system will prioritize supporting the banking system over fighting inflation.
    • The US may face a capital crunch as it needs to refinance a significant amount of debt, and if the Federal Reserve does not provide enough liquidity, there could be a spike in the dollar, an increase in rates, and a decline in risk assets and the economy, or if the Fed does provide enough liquidity, there could be a re-acceleration in inflation.
    • Rising rates are no longer bad for gold, bonds, risk, inflation, commodities, Bitcoin, and stocks, and while trading during this unprecedented time may be difficult, the end game is clear and the speaker advises staying unlevered and waiting for increased liquidity from the Fed.
    • Gromen believes that the Federal Reserve will have to provide more liquidity due to high inflation and fiscal deficits, but acknowledges the possibility of high volatility in the short run and the political challenges the Fed faces in making tough decisions, especially with an upcoming election.
  • 12:30 Rising rates are no longer bad for gold due to fiscal dominance and increasing inflation, making short-term treasuries a better investment option than long-term ones.
    • Shorting long-term US, UK, and Western sovereign debt is currently the clearest trade due to negative term premiums and lack of demand, unless there is an imminent crisis.
    • Rising rates are no longer bad for gold due to fiscal dominance and increasing inflation, making short-term treasuries a better investment option than long-term ones.
    • Owning 10-year U.S. treasuries during a severe recession doesn’t make sense because the U.S. government cannot cover its interest obligations with tax receipts, let alone other expenses.
    • Rising rates are no longer bad for gold because the Treasury market will break and the Fed will implement massive quantitative easing in a severe recession.
    • The US government will print money to avoid defaulting on treasuries, leading to a fiscal dominance problem if inflation rates return to two percent.
    • The high debt and deficits have forced the Fed to print money to finance the government, leading to fiscal dominance and a loss of control over inflation.
  • 20:02 The need for high inflation to finance deficits and stabilize the banking system is leading to a shift in policy, making long-term US, UK, and EU debt a favorable trade.
    • CPI needs to be high to finance deficits and the Fed may cut interest rates on reserves to encourage lending.
    • The reserve ratio and lack of interest payments on reserves are negatively impacting bank profitability and financing the US government, leading to the need for positive real rates to combat inflation.
    • Inflation is expected to rise and countries are acknowledging that achieving a 2% inflation target is unrealistic if they want to avoid a financial crisis.
    • The choice between depression or inflation is inevitable due to high deficits, and senior policymakers are now openly admitting that accepting higher inflation is necessary to avoid a banking stability problem.
    • Higher inflation is necessary for systemic stability, making long-term US, UK, and EU debt a clear trade, as policymakers are puzzled by the persistence of high inflation despite rate hikes.
    • The speaker suggests that the Federal Reserve is starting to realize that they are trapped, as evidenced by Chairman Powell’s response to a question about fiscal dominance.
  • 26:35 Rising rates are no longer bad for gold as evidence suggests central banks have been buying gold since 2014, foreign creditors require a positive real rate of return, and the US government may face fiscal dominance and inflation issues with rising interest rates.
    • The evidence suggests that the banking system’s collapse and the failure of China and Russia to break before the US has led to a realization that the previous understanding of the world is incorrect, and central banks have stopped buying treasuries and instead have been buying gold since 2014, with a significant increase in 2022, and there have been small steps towards implementing yield curve control in the US through programs like btfp and the treasury buyback program.
    • Gromen believes that the Federal Reserve will avoid yield curve control as it would trap them, and instead, they will use other liquidity measures to supplement buying treasuries, with the process leading to yield curve control being paved with more liquidity crises.
    • Foreign creditors financing the US twin deficits require a positive real rate of return, making rising rates no longer bad for gold.
    • Gromen explains that trying to replicate Japan’s economic policies will lead to a similar outcome as Argentina, and highlights the importance of understanding Japan’s relationship with the United States in analyzing its economic situation.
    • Rising interest rates will lead to a significant increase in interest expense for the US government, which highlights the fiscal dominance issue and the potential for inflation, while the commercial real estate sector may face challenges due to both rate changes and changes in work patterns.
    • A substantial percentage of the younger generation is permanently working from home due to tight labor markets and it being a condition of employment.
  • 40:24 Rising rates are no longer bad for gold as the US faces high inflation, debt, and deficits, potentially leading to fiscal dominance and loss of control of inflation by the Federal Reserve, while the dollar’s hegemony is gradually eroding and developing countries are seeking alternative payment methods.
    • Commercial real estate, particularly office space, will need to be worked out over a long period of time through extending and pretending, but the challenge lies in the high levels of inflation, U.S. debt, and deficits, which may push the U.S. government into fiscal dominance and cause the Federal Reserve to lose control of inflation.
    • Gromen believes that the banking problems are symptoms of a fiscal crisis in the US and the West, and that the choice is between inflating or letting the banking system collapse, with the former leading to more inflation and higher rates, but ultimately the steps taken by the authorities suggest they will not let it get too bad.
    • Banks face a greater risk from fiscal dominance and financial repression by the government rather than another 2008 crisis, with inflation control being crucial, while the impact of the BRICS on the dollar is also discussed.
    • Nations trading oil for yuan and the decreasing percentage of the dollar in FX reserves suggest a gradual erosion of the dollar’s hegemony, but it will still be used in financial transactions and trade.
    • The strength of the dollar is causing developing countries to move away from it, resulting in dollar outflows and a need for alternative payment methods, which is a sign of the dollar’s dominance being undermined.
    • Issuance has not hit the race, as the US banking system and UK guilt market blew up first, while China, India, and Brazil were not affected, indicating that the increasing dollarization of commodity markets buys time for countries like Argentina to trade with China and strategically shift away from the US dollar.
  • 51:24 Rising energy prices, particularly oil, may disrupt the market equilibrium, leading to higher inflation and potential control of the oil, inflation, and bond markets by OPEC and Russia.
    • Gromen discusses the concept of assuming a can opener and how it relates to economists.
    • The IMF accepting the Yuan as a payment from Argentina could potentially undermine the US dollar’s hegemony and reinforce the belief in the global South that the IMF is an arm of US hegemony and dollar support.
    • The current low prices of oil and lack of investment in the industry may lead to a major supply crisis in the future, as highlighted by the Saudi oil minister and the decline in global oil production growth from US shale basins.
    • Inflation is expected to rise due to increasing oil prices, which will have significant impacts on financial markets, and the shale industry is responding to investor demands for cash flow rather than investing in new production.
    • Rising energy prices, particularly oil, will disrupt the fragile equilibrium of the market, leading to higher inflation and potential control of the oil market, inflation, and bond market by OPEC and Russia.
    • Gromen suggests that the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was used to protect the treasury market and lower inflation, but now that those measures have been exhausted, there are limited options left.
  • 01:02:38 The Biden Administration’s decision to buy oil at a higher price has implications for the global economy, shale production, inflation, and geopolitics, while OPEC’s control over oil production and the bond market is crucial in preventing economic crises and maintaining political stability.
    • The Biden Administration’s decision to buy oil at $68 to $70 per barrel is wise because it has implications for the global economy, U.S. shale production, oil prices, the dollar, inflation, the bond market, and geopolitics.
    • OPEC is cutting oil production to support the market and act as the adults in the room, while Western markets are controlled by short-term thinking traders.
    • If oil prices drop to $40-$45, shale production will decrease, causing the US to be unable to address a subsequent increase in oil prices, leading to OPEC and Russia controlling the market and the bond market collapsing, which would be detrimental to the economy and geopolitics.
    • Rising oil prices due to a potential oil shortage in 2027 would negatively impact political stability, bond markets, and sustained demand for oil, making it unfavorable for Saudi Arabia.
    • Central banks are cutting rates to prevent a potential economic crisis in 2027, as the consequences of higher or lower oil prices have far-reaching effects on geopolitics, bond markets, and the overall solvency of Western governments.
    • In a highly leveraged system, when one thing breaks, everything breaks fast, and there is a lack of appreciation for the second derivative impacts of oil supply and price issues.
  • 01:11:17 Rising rates can potentially be a catalyst for gold.

Rafi Farber: Silver In Great Technical Position as New Dollars Flood The Banking System
Arcadia Economics ... (From July 11)

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • Silver is in a great technical position as new dollars flood the banking system.
  • “It is the money that is ruining everything. It is the poisoned money that is ruining society as it always has in the collapse of Empires.”
  • “If 1923 if the old 2011 high is now support, we are headed a lot higher on the next rally which I believe will head well above 2100 in gold and silver should start to catch up as monetary Panic takes hold as interest rates rise and consumer prices rise both at the same time and everyone starts to understand that central banks are bleeped.”
  • Silver is in a strong technical position as it finds long-term support at the 50-week and 200-week moving averages, which could attract algorithmic trading.
  • The delinquency rates in commercial mortgage-backed securities have experienced the biggest six-month spike ever, surpassing the decline during the 2008 financial crisis.
  • The increase in reverse repos and treasury’s account of the FED suggests that the money supply has bottomed out and is now headed higher due to higher interest rates, providing a place for the newly printed money to go.
  • The increase in the money supply and higher interest rates will fuel consumer prices, rather than suppress them, leading to potential inflationary pressures.
  • “Gold will break through its all-time highs past 2100 and then you’ll start to see people maybe start to panic a little bit and get their hands on some actual money for the entire system implodes.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Higher interest rates will lead to rising consumer prices, making gold and silver a good investment; the UK is at risk of hyperinflation due to increasing bond and guilt yields.
    • Higher interest rates will fuel consumer prices rather than suppress them, as the money supply increases, leading to rising interest rates and consumer prices, which is why gold and silver are in good technical positions.
    • The UK is at risk of hyperinflation due to the spiraling bond yields and guilt yields.
  • 01:57 Silver is in a good position to rise in value as shorts have covered, and there is a support zone forming for gold at the old high of 1923.
    • Silver is in a good technical position to rise in value as open interest has reached a 10-year low, indicating that all the shorts have covered and the metal is likely to move up soon.
    • Farber  discusses the current state of the world and the importance of money, specifically silver, in bringing balance and sanity back to society, noting a support zone forming at the old high of 1923 for gold.
  • 04:06 Silver is in a strong technical position and could rally above 2100 as interest rates rise and consumer prices increase, with potential temporary breaks but an overall positive outlook.
    • Farber discusses the 2011 high in September and the attempt to break that high.
    • Silver is in a strong technical position and if the old 2011 high of 1923 serves as support, it is likely to rally above 2100 as interest rates rise and consumer prices increase.
    • Silver is in a strong technical position as it approaches long-term support at the 50-week and 200-week moving averages, which could attract algorithmic trading and potentially lead to a temporary break but overall positive outlook.
  • 07:02 Commercial mortgage-backed securities are declining rapidly, with delinquency rates spiking, potentially triggering the next global financial crisis and causing further decline for regional banks.
    • Commercial mortgage-backed securities have been declining rapidly since the lockdown era, with delinquency rates spiking to 4.6% in the biggest six-month increase ever, potentially triggering the next global financial crisis.
    • Regional banks have not recovered from the crisis and are expected to face further decline as commercial mortgage-backed securities lose value due to defaults.
  • 08:57 High interest rates have encouraged more hiring in the private sector, with companies adding 497,000 jobs in June, driven by the Leisure and Hospitality sector, thanks to the availability of a place to put the leftover money from reverse repos into treasuries.
  • 10:28 The increase in treasury issuance and higher interest rates indicate that the money supply is expected to increase, potentially leading to inflation and financial instability for the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.
    • The amount of dollars in the treasury’s account at the New York Fed has increased by 360 billion dollars in June.
    • The increase in treasury issuance is being funded by reverse repos, indicating that the money supply has bottomed out and is expected to increase due to higher interest rates.
    • Higher interest rates will lead to increased consumer prices as the money supply expands, causing both the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to lose money and potentially go bankrupt.
  • 13:05 UK guilts at major resistance level, potential collapse of pound if broken, Bank of England losing money due to increased yields.
    • UK guilt yields have increased, causing the Bank of England to lose money as they bought bonds from retirement accounts that were being liquidated due to rising yields.
    • UK guilts are at a major resistance level and if broken, there will be no support or resistance until around 6%, which will have a significant impact on the UK monetary system and potentially lead to the collapse of the pound.
  • 15:12 Gold and silver will soon reverse their decline and reach all-time highs, leading to panic and a rush for physical assets before the monetary system collapses.
    • Gold and silver are in the final stages of their decline, but will soon reverse and break through all-time highs, causing panic and a rush for physical assets before the monetary system collapses.
    • Sign up for a free trial of the in-game investor or become a Patreon to support Chris and Yard in their Creed economics and receive a Biblical commentary on monetary policy.

Car-mageddon?? Auto Insider Predicts Car Prices To Fall This Year | Lucky Lopez
Wealthion ... (From July 14)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Predictions on Car Price Decline

  • “Auto Insider predicts car prices to fall this year.”
  • The false hope of limited supply is being used to prop up the market, but eventually, this facade will crumble.
  • “I think it’s going to be way worse than what people are thinking. It’s going to be way worse than even the numbers you mentioned to us at the beginning.”
  • According to the auto insider, car prices are predicted to fall by another 30 to 40 percent in 2023, resulting in a slow and steady decline in pricing.
  • Volkswagen or Hyundai may flood the market with cheap cars, prioritizing market share over big profits, which could disrupt the current pricing strategies of other manufacturers.
  • “Used car values are going down…why would you pay forty thousand dollars for a two-year-old Toyota RAV4 when you could buy a brand new one for MSRP.”
  • “The best time to buy a car is in the second quarter of 2023.”
  • Lucky predicts that car prices will fall this year, providing hope for those looking to buy a car.

Auto Loan Defaults and Lending Standards

  • “Lack of lending standards and extending auto loans during the recent boom are coming back to bite lenders, with the percentage of loans that are at least 60 days delinquent hitting the highest rate in more than a decade.”
  • The default rates for prime customers with good credit have doubled from one to two percent to three to four percent, indicating a concerning trend in the automotive industry.
  • “Auto loans originated in 2020, 2021, and 2022 have a default rate that is double what it was in previous years, reaching levels close to the record default rate of 14% in 2008.”
  • “As Banks start having massive defaults, they’re going to have these big deficiencies and this is the thing that breaks the straw that breaks the camel’s back.”

Alternative Buying Options and Better Deals

  • “I get better deals from people on Facebook and Craigslist than I do at the auction dealers.” – The auto insider recommends buying from individuals on platforms like Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist, as they tend to offer better deals compared to dealers who have lines of credit and may overpay for cars.
  • “You’ll get a much better deal from a regular consumer looking to move that inventory.” – Auto insider predicts that consumers will be able to find better deals on cars as regular consumers are looking to sell their cars at lower prices.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Car prices are expected to fall in 2023 due to oversupply, rising interest rates, and inflation, leading to financial difficulties for Americans and a rise in delinquent loans.
    • Car prices skyrocketed due to supply chain disruptions and stimulus, but they are expected to fall in 2023, with used car prices already decreasing, and the auto market may face challenges with delinquent loans.
    • The speaker has over 20 years of experience in the automotive industry and has a passion for cars, which led him to open various businesses related to cars, and he also has a successful YouTube channel with a large audience.
    • Lopez believes that the auto market is currently declining, despite the views of mainstream economists at Cox Automotive.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year due to an oversupply of cars that people can’t afford, rising interest rates, and inflation.
    • Americans are facing financial difficulties with increased rent, gas, and insurance costs, leading to a rise in late payments and default rates, particularly among customers with good credit.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year, according to an auto insider.
  • 06:57 Car prices predicted to fall this year due to increasing default rates on auto loans, leading to banks tightening lending and impacting car sales, while companies hide information from consumers.
    • Car prices may fall this year, but there are concerns about increasing default rates on auto loans, which have reached levels not seen since 2008.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year due to banks facing massive defaults and having to eat the deficiencies from inflated prices at auctions.
    • Banks are tightening lending to consumers for car purchases, which will lead to a decrease in car sales and negatively impact companies like Cox Automotive and Sonic Auto Group.
    • People are hesitant to admit that they may be unprepared for the future, and some individuals don’t want to publicly acknowledge this because it could worsen the problem.
    • Banks have stopped buying auto loans, causing lenders to freak out and potentially lose their bonuses, leading to the hiring of more collection agents due to high default rates.
    • Companies are not allowed to publicly discuss the situation due to the Fair Credit Act, but the speaker believes this is an excuse to hide information from consumers.
  • 13:40 Car prices are expected to drop this year due to a potential market crash, government regulations, and a high number of defaulted auto loans, with repossession rates predicted to worsen in Q4 2022.
    • Banks are using false hope and limited supply to prop up the car market, similar to what happened in the housing market in 2008, with lending standards dropping and subprime auto loans becoming a concern.
    • Banks started offering higher loan-to-value ratios, including to subprime customers, resulting in a surge of car sales during the pandemic.
    • Banks are more cautious about lending to subprime customers and require proof of stable income, but during the stimulus money period, they were more lenient and quickly sold off auto loans to each other.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year due to a potential market crash, government regulations on affordability may negatively impact the auto market, and the high percentage of auto loans defaulting on the first payment is a concerning trend.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year due to a high number of cars in repo yards with unpaid loans and extended forbearance periods.
    • Lopez predicts that the car repossession rates will be worse than expected in the last quarter of 2022 due to skewed numbers and the inclusion of forbearances as defaults.
  • 22:20 Car prices are predicted to fall by 30 to 40 percent in the next 18 months due to a decrease in purchases, an increase in supply from repos, and the declining chip shortage.
    • The government’s forbearance on repossession during the pandemic caused a shortage of used cars, and with banks tightening lending standards and a decrease in purchasing demand, there will be a purchase drought in the future.
    • Car prices are expected to fall due to a decrease in production and tighter lending, resulting in consumers being stuck with overpriced cars and facing negative equity.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall in the next 18 months due to a decrease in purchases, an increase in supply from repos, and the declining chip shortage.
    • Car prices have been steadily declining and are predicted to continue to drop by 30 to 40 percent due to factors such as dealers having a surplus of cars and slowly releasing repos into the market.
    • Car prices are falling as cars are sitting longer on the market, and websites like CarGurus and Carvana allow users to track price drops.
    • Car dealerships often refuse to negotiate on prices because they are financially tied to the vehicles and can only sell them at a loss if necessary.
  • 31:57 Car prices are predicted to fall this year due to an increase in supply and dealers’ bad habits, leading to a surplus of cars that are difficult to sell, potentially causing a market crash.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year due to an increase in supply and dealers’ bad habits of keeping cars for too long.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year due to an increasing number of cars being sold at auctions and car purchasing becoming a popular business, leading to a surplus of cars that are difficult to sell.
    • Car flipping has become more popular in the automotive industry, similar to how people jumped into real estate in 2008, but it may lead to a bubble and potential market crash.
    • Tech companies like Carvana and others tried to disrupt the car business by buying cars online, but they couldn’t sustain the losses and now the trend has crushed them, impacting companies like CarMax and AutoNation.
    • Car prices have increased dramatically as a percentage of family incomes, making it difficult for average households to afford a new car.
  • 36:25 Car prices are predicted to fall this year due to high prices, increased demand for used cars, and a shift towards more affordable models.
    • Car prices, including models like the Toyota Camry and RAV4, have been inflated with dealer markups, but now dealers are struggling to sell cars due to high prices and people’s inability to afford them.
    • Car prices are so high that even people with good credit scores are unable to afford new cars, leading to an increase in the demand for used cars.
    • Major car manufacturers are planning to make fewer cars in 2023 to increase profits, but this strategy may backfire if Volkswagen or Hyundai flood the market with cheap cars and prioritize market share over profit.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year as the market shifts from extravagant models to basic, affordable cars.
    • New car sales are down 40%, causing dealers to sell more used cars at lower prices, and the market is going in the opposite direction due to affordability and economic factors.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year due to a shortage of new cars, increased inventory in the used car market, and the repossession of cars bought by people who couldn’t afford them.
  • 42:56 Car prices predicted to fall this year due to chip shortage and supply chain issues, except for BMW and Volkswagen; recommended to buy from individuals on platforms like Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist for better deals; dealerships willing to sell at a loss, leading to better deals for consumers; negotiate for better prices and be cautious of dealers and high interest rates.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year as the chip shortage and supply chain issues are no longer a major concern, except for BMW and Volkswagen due to a company in Ukraine that made their wiring harnesses being affected by the war.
    • Car prices are expected to fall this year, and it is recommended to buy from individuals on platforms like Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist for better deals.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year as dealerships are willing to sell at a loss due to other expenses, leading to better deals for consumers.
    • Car prices are predicted to fall this year, so having patience when looking for a car will be beneficial in the near term.
    • Negotiate for better prices when buying a car, as everything is negotiable, and don’t be discouraged by dealers or high interest rates.
    • Car dealerships that offer low interest rates are often overpricing the vehicles and using captive banks to make the financing deal seem more attractive.
  • 49:06 Car prices may fall this year, so consult a financial advisor before buying to avoid overextending yourself financially.
    • Car prices may fall this year, so if you’re considering buying a car, consult with a financial advisor to ensure you’re not overextending yourself financially.
    • Support the channel by liking and subscribing, the conversation with Lucky was great and looking forward to the next one.

RFK Jr: Who is God? | Robert F Kennedy Jr and Lex Fridman
Lex Clips ... (From July 10)

Believing in a higher power and adding a moral dimension to actions is crucial for overcoming addiction and finding happiness.

Summary Bullet Points:

  • “God is incomprehensible…we’re inside the mind of God.”
  • The synchronicity of the scarab beetle appearing at the window during Jung’s conversation suggests a deeper, interconnected meaning beyond mere coincidence.
  • RFK Jr. believed in synchronicity as a way for God to intervene in our lives, breaking the rules of nature and mathematics.
  • Life is a series of moral decisions, each with a moral dimension, that shape our actions and define our character.
  • RFK Jr. experienced a spiritual awakening that miraculously lifted his desire for drugs and alcohol, which he considers as much of a miracle as walking on water.
  • “I saw that evidence of God in my life and I see it now every day of my life.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 God is incomprehensible and philosophers believe that we are inside the mind of God, but the speaker discusses their religious upbringing and later straying from their faith during a 14-year period of drug addiction.
    • God is incomprehensible and philosophers believe that we are inside the mind of God, making it impossible for us to understand God’s form.
    • The speaker discusses their deeply religious upbringing, attending church regularly, praying multiple times a day, and reading the Bible, but later straying from their faith during a 14-year period of drug addiction.
  • 02:20 Addiction can be overcome through experiences of others and the speaker wanted to avoid relying solely on willpower for sobriety.
  • 03:59 Kennedy reflects on his struggle with addiction and desires a complete transformation to live a drug-free life like the Saints throughout history.
  • 05:33 Carl Jung, a psychiatrist, had spiritual experiences that shaped his thinking and made him a scientist with a spiritual dimension; he had a synchronistic experience involving a scarab beetle.
    • Carl Jung, a psychiatrist and contemporary of Freud, had intense spiritual experiences from a young age that influenced his thinking and made him a faithful scientist with a spiritual dimension.
    • While sitting in a sanitarium, the speaker hears a patient describe a dream involving a scarab beetle, and coincidentally, a scarab beetle appears at the window.
  • 07:58 Synchronicity experiments failed to prove the existence of a supernatural law, but believing in God can positively impact recovery and moral decisions are present in everyday life.
    • Synchronicity is the belief that God intervenes in our lives by breaking the rules of nature, and the speaker attempted to prove the existence of a supernatural law through experiments, although he was unsuccessful.
    • Believing in God can have a positive impact on recovery, even if one cannot prove God’s existence, and acting as if God exists can help in starting to believe.
    • Life is a series of moral decisions, even in small actions like deciding whether to stay in bed or get up when the alarm goes off.
  • 10:44 Making small decisions and taking responsibility for simple tasks can reflect one’s character and values.
  • 11:19 Surrendering to a higher power enables the use of personal power to serve others and experience God’s power, leading to the speaker’s miraculous recovery from addiction.
    • Maintaining a posture of surrender to a higher power allows for the effective use of personal power to serve the community and experience the power of God, overcoming anxiety and temptation.
    • Kennedy experienced a spiritual awakening that miraculously lifted their desire for drugs and alcohol, which they had been unable to overcome on their own for a decade.
  • 13:34 Evidence of God’s power in the speaker’s life led to the realization that adding a moral dimension to actions is key to overcoming the battle against the Absurd and finding happiness.

This Could Be the Biggest Buying Opportunity for Metals in 40 Years: Peter Grandich
Commodity Culture ... (From July 15)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Potential Buying Opportunities for Metals

  • Peter Grandich believes that this could be the biggest buying opportunity for metals in 40 years.
  • “The metals market is either at the single greatest buying opportunity in 40 years or literally the Bell has rung and people like me didn’t hear it and are trapped in a door that’s never opening again.” – Peter Grandich
  • “If you buy the bullish argument of where the world is going…and when you look how little money relative to especially past decades has been spent to find the metals that are going to be needed for this, then if you can look past days weeks and even months and invest for a matter of years.”
  • “The shares from the top all the way down have become extremely extremely attractive.”
  • Uranium is likely to outperform other metals and commodities in the years ahead due to its importance in meeting the growing demand for electricity and power.
  • “If we even come close to reaching the levels that governments and all is speaking about in terms of electrification and all the demand for copper is just going to go off the charts.”
  • China’s sudden announcement of holding back two metals, of which they have 95% of the world’s supply, indicates a potential buying opportunity for metals.
  • The uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine war and its impact on critical areas of the world could create a buying opportunity for metals.

Geopolitical Factors and Market Impact

  • People need to factor in political and geopolitical events into their investment decisions, as it is likely to gain momentum and have a significant impact on the market.
  • The events with Russia and Ukraine, along with the actions of the United States, have led many countries to question their dependence on the US and the US dollar, contributing to the momentum behind the BRICS.
  • “China’s growth and internal issues are prompting the need for alternative choices, and having a gold-backed currency is a common sense solution to ensure stability and value.”
  • “The thing in France is not something to sneeze at and not look at I mean. This is a huge Uprising in a main Western world country and it has a lot of ramifications that we haven’t begun to see what could happen and it could happen in other countries as well.” – Peter Grandich highlights the significance of the uprising in France and its potential impact on other countries.
  • The geopolitical concern of continuously increasing debt, particularly in the US, could lead to a potentially disastrous outcome if not resolved, with the Congressional budget office predicting a dire situation in less than nine years.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Political corruption is a concern in the financial markets, with evidence and whistleblowers suggesting wrongdoing that could have serious consequences for careers.
    • Peter Grandich, founder of Peter Grandich and Company, discusses the commodity space and his experience in the financial markets.
    • Political corruption has been a long-standing issue that is currently being questioned, and its impact on financial markets is a concern.
    • There is strong evidence and whistleblowers suggesting wrongdoing, which can have serious consequences for their careers.
  • 02:43 It is important to consider political and geopolitical factors in investment decisions, as the declining cognitive abilities of Biden and potential replacement of Harris may have significant impacts, while small businesses face challenges that have not been adequately addressed.
    • Biden’s declining cognitive abilities and the potential replacement of Harris are concerning, as they both lack the ability to effectively function in their roles.
    • People need to consider political and geopolitical factors in their investment decisions as it is likely to gain momentum and have a significant impact.
    • The difficulties faced by small businesses in operating due to regulatory issues, labor shortages, and social and political challenges have not been adequately addressed, impacting the backbone of America’s economy.
    • In the current uncertain environment, it is not a time to be overly optimistic or pessimistic about investing, but rather to remain patient and observe how things unfold.
  • 06:51 The current rally in equities should be seen as an opportunity to reduce holdings, as the speaker believes the market is unlikely to experience significant growth due to factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies and competition from high-yield bonds, and many countries are considering a new gold-backed currency as an alternative to the US dollar.
    • Grandich believes that the current rally in equities should be seen as an opportunity to reduce holdings rather than increase them, and while he agrees with the bearish outlook, he believes the timing and severity of the market downturn may be different than predicted.
    • There is a segment within the financial service community that always spins any situation into a positive one, and currently they are painting a picture that happy days are here again despite any negative events.
    • Grandich  believes that the current market is more challenging and unlikely to experience significant growth due to factors such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies and competition from high-yield bonds.
    • Many countries are turning away from the US dollar and considering a new gold-backed currency due to concerns about US dominance and the weaponization of the dollar.
    • China’s growing strength and internal issues are leading to the possibility of a gold-backed currency as an alternative to the dollar, which is supported by the significant amount of gold purchased by central banks.
    • There is a potential upcoming announcement in August that could lead to one of the biggest economic and political changes in decades, and the speaker believes that the metals market is either at a great buying opportunity or at a point of no return.
  • 13:12 Metal prices are currently low, presenting a significant buying opportunity, especially considering the increasing demand for metals in industries such as electrification and alternative energies.
    • Metals could be experiencing the biggest buying opportunity in 40 years, as the speaker compares the current situation to the turn of the Millennium when gold broke below $300 and some junior resource companies transitioned into internet companies.
    • Metal prices are currently low, presenting a significant buying opportunity, especially considering the increasing demand for metals in industries such as electrification and alternative energies.
    • Metals have become extremely attractive for investment, with signs of sentiment switching and increased interest from major players, despite negative narratives surrounding gold and the rise of Bitcoin.
    • Metals market is facing significant challenges with the need for mergers and changes in the junior resource market, making it harder for companies to reach end users.
    • It is now more challenging for junior resource companies to reach potential investors due to changes in the industry, such as the rise of cryptocurrency, and this difficulty should be taken into consideration by investors and speculators.
    • Uranium is seen as the safest metal to invest in due to its expected growth in electricity and power demand, while other commodities and metals are also predicted to outperform in the coming years.
  • 19:43 Gold and copper are potential buying opportunities due to increasing demand, China’s supply restrictions, and lack of exploration, while nuclear energy should be prioritized despite longer construction time, and the demand for metals is rising but investment is lacking, leading to potential shortages and an energy crisis.
    • The uranium sector is difficult to invest in due to a lack of known producers, but gold and copper are potential buying opportunities for the future, especially with the increasing demand for copper in electrification, and there are also opportunities in critical metals.
    • China has announced that they will be holding back on two metals that they have 95% of the world’s supply of, leading to a potential buying opportunity for metals due to a lack of exploration and shortages.
    • The speaker discusses the potential issues with wind energy, including costly failures and the frequent need for parts replacement, and suggests that this could be a long-term bullish opportunity for reliable energy producing commodities like fossil fuels and uranium.
    • Nuclear energy should be a significant part of a country’s power supply, despite the longer time it takes to build nuclear plants compared to wind and solar energy.
    • Fossil fuel is not going to disappear and there will still be interest in it, as China continues to burn coal and the argument that it will go away is flawed.
    • The demand for metals is increasing due to the desire for gadgets and electric cars, but there is a lack of investment in exploration and infrastructure development, leading to potential shortages and an energy crisis.
  • 26:31 The uncertainty caused by the Ukraine war and potential backtracking of sanctions on natural gas could create a significant buying opportunity for metals, as there may be a decrease in sanctions and an increase in support for nuclear power due to the need for electricity and potential uprisings in Western countries like France.
    • The EU wants to give a Russian Bank access to the Swift system in hopes of extending the Black Sea grain deal, highlighting the challenges faced by the International Community with sanctions against Russia.
    • The uncertainty and destruction caused by the Ukraine war and potential backtracking of sanctions on natural gas could create a significant buying opportunity for metals.
    • There may be a decrease in sanctions and an increase in support for nuclear power due to the need for electricity and the potential for uprisings in Western countries like France.
    • Grandich  discusses the debt crisis in the US and other parts of the world, highlighting the increasing debt and the potential negative consequences, with a focus on the United States.
  • 30:37 The US debt is increasing and interest rates are likely to stay high, leading to a potential financial crisis, making it the biggest buying opportunity for metals in 40 years.
    • The US is on track to reach $50 trillion in debt within 10 years, with interest rates likely to stay above zero, leading to a potential financial crisis as revenue will not be enough to cover interest expenses and essential services.
    • Paying off the debt is unlikely, and the increasing interest rates coupled with the retirement crisis will burden those who still have savings, leading to a potential disaster in the future.
    • Japan’s demographic issue will lead to a battle between generations and an inability to function within the next 10 years, making it the biggest buying opportunity for metals in 40 years.
    • Investors should focus on not losing money and not staying wrong in their investments, rather than solely focusing on making profits, especially during difficult times.
    • Grandich  discusses the need for a shift towards a more conservative approach due to the increasing financial burdens faced by older generations and the affordability crisis in housing, which will require government intervention as the population ages and immigration continues.
    • The speaker acknowledges the difficult and confrontational issues that need to be addressed, expressing that faith is what helps them get through the day, but recognizing that those without faith may struggle even more, and stating that there is no easy solution or quick description.
  • 37:02 Peter Grandich discusses his platforms for sharing views and interviews, expressing a preference for independent shows, and plans to return to Croatia for long-term residency to share his knowledge.
    • Peter Grandich discusses his blog, YouTube channel, and Twitter account as platforms where he shares his views and interviews, expressing his preference for independent shows over biased networks.
    • Peter Grandich plans to return to Croatia later this year and hopes to obtain long-term residency there, as he loves the country and appreciates the opportunity to share his knowledge with the audience.

The second wave of inflation is coming, risk of 'deep recession' is very high – Simon Hunt (Pt 2/2)
Kitco NEWS ... (From July 12)

The US is using sanctions and the weaponization of the dollar to attack the BRICS countries, potentially leading to a new joint BRICS currency and an escalation of the war in Ukraine, which could result in a deep recession and the need to prepare for a difficult economic period ahead.

Quick Summary Bullet Points:

  • The United States is unlikely to let the dollar be dethroned as the king of global reserve currencies without a major fight.
  • “This war is part of America’s defense mechanism against the development of an alternative to the dollar denominated world.”
  • The risk of a “deep recession” is very high, indicating potential economic instability in the near future.
  • “We will see most Global Equity markets falling by 30 to 35 percent.”
  • The risk of a deep recession is very high, with evidence suggesting that the US will be in a recession by Q4.
  • “You’ll get the second wave of inflation and the second wave is always the damaging one.”
  • “There’s a real risk that we’ll see 10-year treasuries yielding well over 10 percent, which will lead us into either a very deep recession or a depression.”
  • “Prepare for very difficult years ahead, not just one year but probably five years.” – Simon Hunt advises investors to be prepared for a prolonged period of economic challenges.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The US is using sanctions and the weaponization of the dollar to attack the BRICS countries, potentially leading to a new joint BRICS currency and an escalation of the war in Ukraine.
    • The creation of a new joint BRICS currency backed by commodities like gold, oil, and rare Earths is garnering interest, with 20 nations applying to join, including Saudi Arabia, as the trend to de-dollarize accelerates, which may provoke a response from the United States.
    • The ongoing conflict in Ukraine is part of a long-term objective by the G7 countries, particularly the US, to achieve regime change in Moscow and gain control of Russia’s natural resources, and recent events have confirmed Russia’s suspicions, leading to a potential escalation of the war with a higher risk of it spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders.
    • The intensification of the war is America’s defense against threats to the dollar and may lead to the emergence of other centers of war before the American elections in 2024.
    • The speaker suggests that the US is using sanctions and the weaponization of the dollar to attack the foundations of the BRICS countries, particularly Russia, in an attempt to de-dollarize and weaken the BRICS alliance.
  • 05:50 China and Russia’s strategic alliance is being targeted by the West, but it is unlikely to succeed; Russia sent troops to Ukraine due to an imminent attack, and Germany’s internal division between industrialists and politicians may affect its role in the EU and NATO.
    • China and Russia’s strategic alliance is being targeted by the West, but it is unlikely to be successful according to the deputy foreign minister of China and leaders in the global times.
    • Russia sent a small number of troops into Ukraine because they were hoping for a peaceful resolution, but when they learned that Ukraine and NATO were about to launch a large attack, Putin sent in his Special Operations forces.
    • Over the past 10 years, there has been a trade and strategic triangle between Germany, Russia, and China, which Washington has feared and has been successful in breaking up.
    • Germany is experiencing an internal division between its industrialists who are still investing in China and its politicians who are heavily influenced by America, potentially impacting its role in the EU and NATO.
  • 10:54 A large percentage of Europeans disagree with their politicians’ support for Ukraine, potentially impacting the future of the EU and the ability to finance deficits of other EU countries, while the speaker suggests that the US may have initiated the war in Ukraine to undermine the BRICS currency initiative and predicts further escalation.
    • A large percentage of the European population disagrees with their politicians’ support for Ukraine, raising questions about the future of the EU and the ability to finance deficits of other EU countries.
    • The speaker suggests that the US potentially initiated the war in Ukraine as a means to undermine the BRICS currency initiative and the global monetary system, and predicts that the war will escalate.
  • 13:02 Most G7 countries, including the US, are expected to enter a recession soon, leading to aggressive monetary policies and potential layoffs, as indicated by declining employment figures and physical demand for copper.
    • Most G7 countries, including the US, are expected to be in recession by the Autumn, leading central banks to implement aggressive monetary policies to counter the significant decline in global equity markets.
    • The US is likely to enter a recession by Q4, as indicated by the household survey which suggests weaker employment figures and the exclusion of temporary workers in the establishment survey.
    • Hunt predicts that corporations will start laying off workers over the summer months, leading to a recession, regardless of the technical definition, as seen through indicators like falling physical demand for copper in America.
  • 17:05 Germany and China are experiencing economic slowdowns, the US is in a precarious position, and there is a high risk of a deep recession or depression due to rising interest rates, inflation, and potential currency changes.
    • Germany is in a technical recession, businesses are slowing down in Europe and China, China’s government is more focused on debt issues than stimulating the economy, growth in China will disappoint, and the US is currently in a precarious position.
    • Hunt predicts a recession in Q4, with the S&P 500 potentially dropping 30-35% due to the impact of quantitative tightening, rising interest rates, and the intensification of the war in Ukraine.
    • In 2024, there will be a second wave of inflation that will cause the dollar to fall and inflation to rise, leading to increased demand for inflation hedges.
    • There is a high risk of a deep recession or even a depression due to the potential increase in long-term interest rates, which could lead to a sell-off in the markets, inflation hitting double digits, and the opportunity for the BRICS countries to introduce their own currency.
  • 21:54 The outcome of the US-Russia war in Ukraine will negatively impact global markets, with Russia likely to negotiate favorable terms, leading to a high risk of a deep recession until 2025.
    • The outcome of the war between the US and Russia in Ukraine will have a negative impact on global markets, and while the US may not be victorious in terms of conquering more areas in Ukraine, Russia will be in a position to negotiate their terms and ultimately have a diplomatic resolution in their favor.
    • Hunt predicts that the global depression and war will continue until 2025, causing a high risk of a deep recession.
  • 23:43 Prepare for a difficult economic period ahead, buy gold and exit equity markets before a major crash occurs, as Simon discusses the risk of a deep recession and the second wave of inflation.
    • Prepare for a difficult economic period ahead, with the recommendation to buy gold and exit equity markets before a major crash occurs.
    • Simon breaks down his theory and shares his thoughts and perspectives on the risk of a deep recession and the second wave of inflation.
  • 26:54 The risk of a deep recession is very high as the second wave of inflation approaches.

Expect RAPID DECLINE in Dollar Amid BRICS Gold Currency | Alasdair Macleod
Liberty and Finance ... (From July 14)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Fragility of Fiat Currencies and Unsustainable Financial System

  • “The purchasing power of Fiat currencies is going to decline far more rapidly than we thought possible, perhaps even a month ago.”
  • “You’ve been warning us for years and in quarters and then months about the fragility of the Fiat Western currencies which are basically backed by nothing.”
  • “This is something that you’ve proposed for some time as being the only rational solution to a world gone mad where we have basically a house of cards built on top of Fiat currencies that are based on nothing and then derivatives of those and markets that are driven by those and all that sort of thing.” – Alasdair Macleod suggests that the current financial system is unsustainable and a new solution is needed.
  • “We’re looking at the birth and death of the pure fiat currency system that has lasted 52 years almost to the month.”
  • “We are now talking about an entity doing away with the dollar which encompasses over 50 percent of the world’s population and over 50 percent of the world’s GDP on a purchasing parity basis. This is not a minor deal. This is very, very big.”
  • “Expect RAPID DECLINE in Dollar Amid BRICS Gold Currency” – Alasdair Macleod suggests that the dollar will experience a rapid decline due to the emergence of a gold currency by BRICS nations.
  • The move towards a gold-linked trade settlement currency by BRICS countries is likely to accelerate the decline of the US dollar and the loss of purchasing power of banknotes.

Geopolitical Strategies and Power Shifts

  • The deliberate manipulation of interest rates by the US to bankrupt nations they don’t like or have other motives against is a controversial claim made by a major general in the People’s Liberation Army.
  • China’s focus on protecting the BRICS alliance and its investments in infrastructure, such as railways and power lines, highlights their strategic efforts to counter the American strategy of forcing countries into bankruptcy to regain control.
  • The expansion of the gold-backed trade currency agenda from the Eurasian economic Union to the wider BRICS and the consolidation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization highlights the significance of this deal.
  • China’s strategy of making significant infrastructure investments in Africa and other parts of the world is building loyalty among those countries, while the US’s playbook involves bankrupting nations and making them dependent on the US.
  • It is contradictory that China, a country known for control, encourages its population to own precious metals and build up their own strength, while the US aims to establish dependency and impoverishment in other countries.
  • The West focuses on keeping the population dependent on the government for political control, while the East takes a different approach to maintain power.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The purchasing power of fiat currencies is expected to rapidly decline, leading to a serious impact on the economy, with the proposal of a gold-backed currency by BRICS nations seen as a rational solution to the unstable global financial system.
    • The purchasing power of fiat currencies is expected to decline rapidly, leading to a serious impact on the economy.
    • Macleod discusses the fragility of Western currencies and mentions an upcoming announcement at the BRICS Summit about a proposed gold-backed currency.
    • He discusses the proposal of a gold currency by BRICS nations as a rational solution to the current unstable global financial system based on fiat currencies and derivatives.
    • Gold prices experienced a significant increase after a previous suspension, and the speaker believes that a similar situation may occur due to the lack of attention and understanding of the current situation.
    • The media has not reported on the decline of the dollar and the lack of access to Russian news channels in Europe has led to disbelief in any information coming from Russia.
  • 05:41 The dollar is expected to rapidly decline as BRICS countries, including Russia, plan to replace it with a gold currency, merging organizations and moving towards a gold standard.
    • The birth and death of the pure fiat currency system, which has lasted 52 years, is extremely important and not to be dismissed, as the planning for the BRICS gold currency has been in the works for some time.
    • After sanctions were imposed on Russia, Sergey Glaziev was tasked by President Putin to advise on setting up a trade currency to replace dollars and euros with a basket of local currencies, including Russia and China, but the speaker argues that the only practical way to do this is to link it to gold.
    • The plan is to merge the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with the subset of the Eurasian Economic Union and an expanded BRICS.
    • Over 50% of the world’s population and GDP, including Russia, are considering moving away from the dollar and towards a gold standard, as indicated by the expansion of the Moscow Gold Exchange and an article written by Sergey Glaziev.
  • 11:10 The US is concerned about the potential decline in capital inflows due to the BRICS gold currency, while China is moving towards a gold standard to protect their export markets and investments in emerging markets.
    • The Russians admitted that gold is on the agenda, which was widely circulated and forced them to acknowledge it, and Janet Yellen suddenly flew off to Beijing.
    • The US government is aware of the potential impact of the BRICS gold currency on the dollar and is concerned about the potential decline in capital inflows into America, which would pose a significant problem for funding deficits.
    • China is now more interested in moving towards a gold standard and supporting a gold currency due to the constant threat to their export markets, the saber rattling over Taiwan, and the backfiring of sanctions against Russia.
    • Macleod discusses how the US lowers interest rates to create a boom in other countries, then raises interest rates to cause a currency and debt crisis, but argues that this is a result of the bank credit cycle rather than a deliberate ploy.
    • China is concerned about the US destabilizing emerging markets through a “pump and dump” operation, so they are protecting their investments in Africa and Latin America and want to safeguard the BRICS alliance.
  • 17:25 A gold-backed currency, not issued by a government’s Central Bank, could lead to a rapid decline in the purchasing power of fiat currencies.
    • The expansion of the gold-backed trade currency from the Eurasian economic Union to the BRICS and the consolidation of the Shanghai cooperation organization indicates a significant deal that has already been planned and will not take a long time to put together.
    • A gold-backed currency, not issued by a government’s Central Bank and not used for funding government deficits, could be a viable solution to the rapid decline of the dollar.
    • The expansion of a new gold currency for trade finance and cross-border transactions, controlled by a central bank and national central banks, could lead to a rapid decline in the purchasing power of fiat currencies.
  • 21:24 China is building alliances and encouraging its population to own precious metals, while the US is bankrupting nations and promoting dependency, creating a dichotomy between the East and West in terms of currency and money.
    • China is building alliances and loyalty through infrastructure investments, while the US is bankrupting nations to make them dependent on them, creating a dilemma between the two approaches.
    • China and India are encouraging their populations to own precious metals, contradicting the narrative in the US where the government wants increasing dependency, and this raises the question of why China would want to build up the strength of their own population if the US is trying to establish dependency and complicity.
    • Gold is seen as true money by the populace, while government-backed currencies like the rupee, yuan, and Iranian real are not trusted, leading to a dichotomy between the East and West in terms of currency and money.
    • Political freedom is valued in democracies, but the freedom to conduct business is greater in Asia compared to Europe and possibly America, as seen in China and Russia.
    • Western politicians do not consider the economy in terms of businesses needing to make profits, but rather view big businesses as monopolizing and suppressing competition, which contradicts the notion of Market Freedom capitalism in the West.
  • 27:27 The decline of the dollar is expected due to the efficient Chinese bureaucracy, contrasting Western governments’ focus on dependency and destabilization caused by interest groups, while China’s progressive economic system and culture of saving contribute to its stability.
    • The Chinese bureaucracy is efficient and can be helpful, despite being heavily regulated and lacking democracy, which contrasts with the politicians’ focus on improving business prospects.
    • In the West, governments focus on keeping the population dependent on them for political gain, while in the East, such as China, they maintain power through a different approach.
    • China’s strong control over its diverse ethnic groups prevents the country from falling apart, while in Western societies, lobbying by various interest groups can lead to destabilization.
    • Governments no longer represent the people and as a result, welfare has spread and we can no longer afford our governments, while countries like Russia have lower tax rates.
    • China has a more progressive economic system with lower taxes and a culture of saving, while in countries like France, making money and profits is seen as negative.
  • 33:40 People are adjusting their financial lives as they realize the rapid decline of the dollar and the shift towards a gold currency among BRICS nations, while young entrepreneurs are leaving the UK for countries with lower tax rates.
    • Macleod discusses the rapid decline of the dollar and the shift towards a gold currency among BRICS nations, highlighting the increasing suppression of personal freedom and the use of cash in Western countries compared to Asia and Africa.
    • People are realizing that the world is changing and the current leaders are not concerned about their welfare, so they are adjusting their financial lives accordingly.
    • Young entrepreneurs are taking advantage of remote work opportunities to live and work in countries with lower tax rates, causing a loss of talent for the UK economy.
  • 37:13 Expect rapid decline in the dollar as BRICS countries move towards a gold-linked trade settlement currency, leading to rising interest rates and falling financial assets.
    • Macleod discusses the desire to go on a Caribbean vacation but acknowledges the responsibilities and obligations that prevent them from doing so.
    • The move towards a gold-linked trade settlement currency by the BRICS countries will accelerate the decline of the dollar and the loss of purchasing power, leading to rising interest rates, bond yields, and falling financial assets.
    • Hoarding real money is important to escape the credit system and Alasdair Macleod’s perspective is valued due to his banking background and global perspective.
    • Macleod writes multiple times per week on gold, geopolitics, economics, and precious metals, with the latest articles published on Thursdays.
    • He aims to educate people about sound money, protecting themselves in dangerous times, and making choices within their own lives to avoid the negative effects of economic forces.
    • Expect a rapid decline in the dollar amid the BRICS gold currency.
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