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so You'll Thrive and Profit, In Spite of It... "

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Top Ten Videos – September 18, 2023

► Searching for the Best Gold IRA Company?
This is a MUST-Read...

Bob Moriarty & Rafi Faber: How Will Gold Play a Role in a Divided World?

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference ... (From September 15)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Role of Gold as a Hedge and Preserver of Wealth

  • “It is important for people to be holding physical gold and silver potentially in their possession right now.”
  • Gold can potentially play a role in a divided world by serving as a hedge against inflation and preserving wealth.
  • Holding physical gold and silver can undermine the power of governments and big banks, as they are not able to censor or control these precious metals.
  • To survive the end game, it is important to have physical gold and silver coins in hand, as they will be the valuable assets that can be traded in the immediate aftermath.
  • The potential scenario for gold to play a role in a divided world is if the dollar collapses, leading to a bottom-up movement where people start trading gold and silver to rebuild local economies.
  • “No government wants to go to gold standard, the only time they’ll ever do it is when they’re forced into it by ordinary people who want to eat.”
  • “Central banks around the world have been accumulating gold at a record pace, which has sparked theories of a monetary system reset and a return to a gold standard.”
  • Central banks are accumulating gold because they know the total amount of debt in the world cannot be paid, and they’re trying to cover their assets.

Impacts of Going off the Gold Standard

  • Going off the gold standard in 1971 led to excessive government spending and we are now facing the consequences.
  • The removal of gold backing from the US dollar in 1971 had significant impacts on money, leading to bankrupt medical, financial, and political systems.
  • Nixon’s action in 1971 was not taking the dollar off gold, but rather admitting that the printing of money couldn’t be paid off anymore, leading to a shift towards market-determined exchange rates.
  •  The financial system is on the edge of a cliff, with a predicted crisis stage starting in 2005-2008, suggesting that the potential collapse of the system may occur before the widespread adoption of Central Bank digital currencies.
  • The hyperinflation of the dollar could have global implications, as the absence of a price matrix would make it difficult for any totalitarian system to allocate goods and services, potentially causing economic instability and social unrest.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Holding physical gold and silver is important in a divided world, as central banks invest in gold and corruption fueled by the Federal Reserve affects various sectors, but the solution to fixing inflation is not discussed.
    • The importance of holding physical gold and silver in the current divided world is discussed.
    • Having a reserve of gold would be valuable for individuals, families, corporations, cities, states, and nations, regardless of age or circumstances.
    • Central banks like Russia, China, and Iran are all investing in gold, making it the best reserve during financial crises, and it is important to hold physical gold and silver in hand for profit and security.
    • The world is becoming increasingly corrupted in various sectors, such as education, politics, medicine, and academia, due to the inflation machine fueled by the Federal Reserve and directed by Congress, which allows companies like Pfizer to profit from their medications by forcing Medicare and Medicaid to cover the costs, thus perpetuating the cycle of corruption, and the solution to fixing inflation is not mentioned.
  • 04:54 Holding physical gold and silver can undermine the corrupt financial system and lead to wealth redistribution, and in a true end game scenario, it is important to have physical gold and silver coins as ETFs will not be useful; the recent BRICS Summit strengthened the alliance but did not result in a gold-backed currency announcement, and while there is discussion about a potential gold standard in the future, it can be implemented by any country without agreement from others, and the speaker believes that the gold standard will not return as an agreement among central powers, but rather as a bottom-up process where currencies collapse and local communities trade gold and silver to rebuild their economies.
    • Holding physical gold and silver can undermine the corrupt financial system and lead to a redistribution of wealth.
    • To protect your family in a true end game scenario where the dollar collapses and there is panic and scarcity, it is important to have physical gold and silver coins, as ETFs will not be useful in such situations.
    • The recent BRICS Summit generated speculation about a potential gold-backed currency announcement, although it did not materialize, and instead, the BRICS alliance was strengthened by inviting six additional members.
    • We left the gold standard in 1971, which led to excessive government spending, and while there is discussion about a potential gold standard in the future, it can be implemented by any country without agreement from others.
    • China, the United States, and the first country that doubts it will become the richest country in the world due to everyone wanting to deal with them, but the significance of the BRICS meeting is that they will now control 80% of the world’s energy and over 55% of the GDP, marking a shift from the West’s debt-based system to the East’s resource-based system, although the idea of a gold-backed BRICS currency is considered nonsense.
    • No government wants to return to the gold standard as it would require dealing with reality and balancing their checkbooks, and the speaker believes that the gold standard will not return as an agreement among central powers, but rather as a bottom-up process where the dollar and other currencies collapse, leading to local communities trading gold and silver to rebuild their economies.
  • 11:32 The speaker expresses concern about the lack of respect for liberty in the US Administration and the potential dangers of China having superpower status, highlighting the impacts of removing gold backing from the US dollar in 1971 and the potential for a worldwide revolution leading to the adoption of a gold standard.
    • The speaker expresses concern about the lack of respect for liberty in the US Administration and the potential dangers of Xi Jinping and China having superpower status, stating that they do not want to be in a world where that is the case.
    • The removal of gold backing from the US dollar in 1971 had significant impacts on money, resulting in a bankrupt medical, financial, and political system, with accusations of bribery against the president and the potential return of a deceptive version of COVID-19 to reinstate Biden into office.
    • A worldwide revolution will occur when the system crashes and banks close, forcing governments to adopt a gold standard, as seen in the chaotic economic revolution in France from 1789 to 1796.
    • In 1971, Nixon admitted that the printing of money could no longer be paid off and allowed the market to determine the exchange rate, leading to a disconnect between the dollar and gold and the establishment of a Futures Market to stabilize the price.
  • 16:23 Central banks are accumulating gold at a record pace in preparation for a monetary system reset, as they know the world’s debt cannot be paid, but revaluing gold and stopping money printing may face backlash; people attacking FOMC participants could lead to panic, and central banks’ gold reserves are ineffective if trust in the bank is lacking.
    • Disconnecting from gold and returning to a gold standard is seen as a solution to the inflationary pyramid problem, with central banks around the world accumulating gold at a record pace, possibly in preparation for a monetary system reset.
    • Central banks are accumulating gold because they know the world’s debt cannot be paid and they are trying to protect themselves.
    • Central bankers may be hesitant to revalue gold and stop printing money due to the potential backlash from their staff and the public.
    • People from different countries will try to attack the participants of the FOMC meeting, leading to panic.
    • Central banks buying and selling gold to strengthen their currency is ineffective if people don’t trust the bank, so the amount of gold they have doesn’t matter.
  • 20:50 There are debates about intentional destruction of Western societies, with some people in power potentially being psychopaths, and organizations like the World Economic Forum shaping global events, while the danger lies in the stupidity of people who have the potential to cause harm.
    • Is there an intentional destruction of Western societies economically, spiritually, and culturally, or are the powers that be simply ignorant or helpless?
    • Many people in positions of power, including Justin Trudeau, may be diagnosed as psychopaths and enjoy tormenting and controlling others, which is why real money is needed to measure success.
    • There is no conspiracy or central group trying to engineer a divided world, but there are organizations like the World Economic Forum that play a role in shaping global events.
    • There are warring factions of Warlords in charge of different territories, some of whom are evil like Fauci and Trudeau, while others, like Mao, are more indifferent and play with people’s lives, and the danger lies in the stupidity of people who have the potential to cause more harm.
  • 24:59 Central Bank digital currencies pose a threat to individual wealth and government overreach, while the potential collapse of totalitarian systems may lead to a reliance on gold and silver as a stable solution in a divided world.
    • Central Bank digital currencies pose a threat as governments freeze bank accounts and debank individuals, making it necessary for average citizens to be concerned and find ways to protect their wealth from government overreach.
    • OnlyFans, a site where attractive women can sell pictures and make money, is being targeted by the government and banks, despite their actions being legal, which highlights the moralistic judgment and control over certain industries, while the speaker also predicts a financial crisis.
    • The world is moving towards totalitarianism, but historically, such regimes have not lasted very long.
    • The collapse of the Soviet Union after 70 years was due to their ability to use dollar-denominated prices to allocate goods and services, but in a global context where the dollar is hyperinflating, totalitarian systems will struggle to sustain themselves without a price system, leading to a breakdown of the division of labor and a potential reliance on gold and silver.
    • CBDCs may be a tool for totalitarian control, but they are not a stable solution and will only add another layer of instability to the current monetary system, ultimately leading to a collapse and a return to gold and silver.
    • Most people consider gold to be a relic of the past or a shiny rock used for jewelry, so the speaker asks how we can educate children and society on the role of precious metals as money.
  • 32:44 People will turn to gold and silver as an alternative when they realize the decline of the US Empire, as gold is the basis of world trade and must be recognized as money to maintain its value and stability.
    • The rapid decline of the US Empire will lead people to turn to gold and silver as an alternative when they realize there is no other option.
    • The speaker discusses the potential collapse of the financial system, including the closing of banks, and the importance of educating people on sound money.
    • Gold is not just a shiny metal, but rather a valuable asset that people need to learn the importance of through the pain of not having it.
    • Gold is the basis of world trade and must be recognized as money in order to maintain its value and stability, allowing individuals to navigate volatility and remain invested in the game until the end.
    • Pay children in silver coins instead of cash so they can physically experience the weight and value of real money, encouraging them to save and invest for the future.
  • 37:23 The speaker emphasizes the importance of educating people about gold and discusses the interplay between the monetary system, banking system, and gold from an Austrian School of Economics perspective, while also offering trading advice and a biblical angle on money, with reassurance that we have overcome similar situations before.
    • The speaker discusses their books, the longevity of their organization, and the importance of educating people about gold, while also mentioning another person’s newsletter service.
    • The speaker discusses the interplay between the monetary system, banking system, and gold and silver, providing insights from an Austrian School of Economics perspective, while also offering trading advice and a biblical angle on money.
    • It is reassuring to know that we have experienced similar situations before and will overcome them again, as evidenced by the panelists’ discussion and their agreement to participate in future discussions.
    • I have been a fan of Bob and 321 Gold since my early 20s, and now I’m 40.

Housing Market Set For A "Cat 5" Storm, Worse Than The Great Financial Crisis | Melody Wright

Wealthion ... (From September 13)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Housing market challenges and risks

  • “Last time, the institutionals came in and bought up a lot of these homes…I do think it’s probably going to be a cat five.”
  • The housing market is facing a “Cat 5” storm worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with structural issues and an excess of inventory that is unaffordable for many Americans.
  • We are all going to be hit like a Mac Truck when the housing market crisis hits due to credit crunch and liquidity shortages.
  • “I really do believe that we are rounding the corner to that Runway being completely over.”
  • The influx of shadow inventory in the housing market is expected to further drive down home prices and rental prices.
  • The potential risk arises when the market flips and these investors start losing money on their thousands of units, leading to a sudden influx of hundreds of homes hitting the market within a short period of time and causing a significant drop in prices.
  • Institutional buyers, who have been driving up housing prices, are now becoming net sellers, indicating a potential downturn in the housing market.
  • The potential catalyst for the housing market storm may be the Super Prime investors who bought multiple properties, leading to potential distress selling in the future.
  • The housing market is facing a potential crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with people who took out interest-only loans now struggling to pay off the full amount due next month.
  • The housing market is showing signs of distress, with borrowers giving up on their credit and facing financial hardships, potentially leading to a worse crisis than the Great Financial Crisis.

Lessons not learned from past financial crisis

  • The foreclosure crisis in the last financial crisis was not solely caused by subprime loans, but also by affordability issues and credit quality degradation among prime borrowers.
  • “Presumably there’s an end date on that though right I mean 100 they they have. They’ve spent the cost to build this thing right having it just sort of sit there not generating income depreciating needing maintenance stuff. Like that they they can’t do that forever. That’s not a profit. It’s not a way to run a business.” – There are concerns about the sustainability of holding built houses without generating income, as it is not a profitable long-term strategy.
  • The housing market is showing dynamics that indicate we haven’t learned our lessons from the past financial crisis.
  • Irresponsible lending practices, such as stated income or ninja loans, along with flawed assumptions made by technology tools used in loan origination, have contributed to the current housing market challenges.
  • “Making an informed decision with the support of informed professionals versus just making a decision in the moment driven by emotion.”

Impact on affordability and accessibility

  • Based on what I’ve seen, the housing market is built for the super rich and not affordable for ordinary Americans.
  • “Only 23% of homes in the U.S are affordable to Middle income buyers…that number was 50% just last year.”

Transcript Summary:

The US housing market is facing a potential crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with a lack of affordability, oversupply of inventory, deceptive tactics, and potential fraud.

  • 00:00 The upcoming storm in the real estate market is predicted to be worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with a disconnect between data and reality, an abundance of luxury homes, and unaffordable new build sites for ordinary Americans.
    • Wright predicts that the upcoming storm in the real estate market will be worse than the Great Financial Crisis, specifically a category five storm, and discusses the previous involvement of institutional buyers in the market.
    • Wright, who has experience in the mortgage industry, believes that the current state of the US real estate market is similar to the period before the 2008 financial crisis, with various metrics making the situation appear better than it actually is.
    • Home prices may appear higher due to limited transactions, with conflicting reports on builder confidence, new home sales, pending sales, and existing sales, but the speaker believes that the current path of the housing market is not good based on their research, experience in mortgage finance and housing, and observations from being on the road in February.
    • Wright noticed discrepancies in the housing market and decided to visit various cities to see the large number of new build sites that were not reflected in the permit data or surveys.
    • The housing market is facing a severe crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with new build sites being unaffordable for ordinary Americans and an abundance of luxury homes and spec homes.
    • The housing market is experiencing a disconnect between data and reality, with a surplus of inventory and structural issues due to the construction of homes for people who cannot afford them.
  • 08:18 The US housing market is facing a severe crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with a lack of affordability for middle-income buyers, an oversupply of housing inventory, and deceptive tactics used by home builders and realtors.
    • The housing market is experiencing a confusing time with conflicting opinions on recovery and decline, but the main issue is not a lack of inventory, but rather the lack of affordability for middle-income buyers, with only 23% of homes in the US being affordable to them.
    • There is an oversupply of housing inventory and a disconnect between supply and demand, with many units sitting empty and not selling, leading to a potential price adjustment problem.
    • The housing market is facing a severe crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with the foreclosure crisis primarily affecting prime borrowers due to affordability issues and the construction of speculative homes.
    • Spec homes built for rent and short-term rental without contracts or certificates of occupancy may exist but are not widely known, as evidenced by numerous build sites in Round Rock, Texas.
    • New home salespeople are writing contracts for houses that may not be sold, just to meet monthly quotas, without considering if buyers can actually qualify for the loans.
    • Home builders and realtors use deceptive tactics such as using different color stickers and staging homes to make it appear as if they are sold, raising concerns about the housing market.
  • 15:09 The housing market is facing a potential collapse due to poor technology, lack of transparency, and potential fraud, with high-priced homes being falsely claimed as sold and builders hiding their true financial situation.
    • Wright highlights the poor technology and lack of transparency in the mortgage industry, leading to uncertainty about the reported inventory shortage in the housing market.
    • She discusses the issue of high-priced homes being built in subdivisions, particularly in Austin, Texas, and highlights the lack of information on the impact of local private builders.
    • The housing market is facing significant challenges due to poor technology, labor shortages, credit crunch, liquidity shortages, and potential fraud, making it difficult to assess the true nature of the market.
    • Many spec homes in Austin are being built on the higher end of the affordability spectrum, but the companies building them are falsely claiming that they are sold when they actually don’t have a buyer.
    • The housing market is facing a potential collapse as financials are not matching the narrative, with private builders becoming net sellers and the drug of gain on sale being used to cover losses.
    • New builds are expected to have a significant price reduction and various incentives due to the 10-year running up, but builders may be hiding their true financial situation through cost modeling and not selling certain projects.
  • 23:10 The housing market is facing a potential crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with builders preparing for a hard landing as transactions decrease and future demand is pulled into the present through incentives and mortgage discounting.
    • National builders can use their cost model to value unsold homes as just land, allowing them to avoid fair market value and taxes, but this is not a sustainable or profitable way to run a business.
    • The housing market is facing a severe crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, as margins are being crushed, new home sales are down, and the narrative is fading, leading to potential market decline by October or November.
    • The housing market is facing a potential crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with builders preparing for a hard landing as transactions decrease and future demand is pulled into the present through incentives and mortgage discounting.
    • The average price of new homes has dipped below existing homes due to affordability and incentives, similar to the dynamic in the auto market, indicating a potential downturn in the housing market.
    • There is a discrepancy between the publicly available data on MLS listings and the actual number of homes for sale, with Zillow and Redfin having fewer listings than realtor.com, and there are additional factors such as pocket listings and properties sold through social media that contribute to the lack of understanding in the housing market.
    • Existing homes and new build homes are not being accurately reflected on MLS sites, with only a small percentage of available units being listed, which could indicate a potential housing market crisis.
  • 35:57 The housing market is at risk of a severe downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with excess inventory, deep-pocketed investors, and concerns about overbuilding, indicating a potential crash in prices.
    • There is a significant amount of inventory in the housing market that is not being accurately reflected, with deep-pocketed corporations like Blackstone and private equity firms contributing to the surge in corporate capital in the residential housing market.
    • Rents and home prices are expected to decrease further due to the excess inventory in the market, including shadow inventory, which will pull down sale and rental prices.
    • Deep-pocketed all-cash investors buying housing inventory at higher prices than average consumers, with the ability to borrow at cheaper rates and enjoy economies of scale, pose a significant risk as their potential loss of money on thousands of units could lead to a sudden influx of homes on the market and a subsequent crash in prices.
    • Institutional buyers, who have been influential in raising housing prices, have now become net sellers, except for one deal, indicating a potential downturn in the housing market.
    • The housing market is predicted to experience a severe downturn worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with concerns about empty homes and overbuilding by companies like Lennar.
    • No one in the housing market has learned their lessons and there are many things happening that they don’t understand.
  • 43:55 The housing market is heading towards a severe crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with inflated credit scores, risky loans, and government intervention causing concerns about repurchase requests and unfair practices.
    • Credit scores are inflated due to factors like medical debts and student loans not being considered, and the housing industry now heavily relies on government-sponsored Enterprises (GSE) for mortgage support.
    • The housing market is facing a potential crisis due to the increase in non-qualified mortgages and the government’s role in approving loans based on inflated credit scores, leading to concerns about repurchase requests and the unfair practices of government-sponsored entities.
    • The housing market is facing a severe crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, as certain dynamics show that lessons have not been learned and people are not paying attention.
    • The speaker predicts a significant correction in the housing market, possibly lasting for multiple years, due to various factors including the upcoming election.
    • The housing market is facing an affordability crisis, with government intervention and assistance programs likely to be implemented, and the catalyst for the crisis may be the Super Prime investors who bought multiple properties.
    • The housing market is facing a potential crisis due to risky loans, short-term rental investments, and the rise in interest rates, with both institutional and individual investors being affected.
  • 52:05 The housing market is heading towards a severe crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with potential distress for borrowers, a collapse in the super prime segment, and a focus on subprime that misses the bigger picture.
    • The housing market is facing a severe crisis due to the inability to refinance, lack of liquidity, and irresponsible lending practices, which may result in a prolonged downturn.
    • Wright predicts that the housing market is heading towards a severe crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with borrowers experiencing distress and a potential collapse in the super prime segment, while the focus on subprime misses the bigger picture.
    • There is a surge in delinquencies in the housing market, but foreclosures will likely not increase until the end of Q1 or Q2 due to the lengthy process of putting a loan into default after the Great Financial Crisis.
    • The housing market is predicted to face a severe crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with the potential for a recession and job losses, as well as the possibility of credit events caused by the liquidity shortage of non-bank mortgage lenders known as shadow banks.
    • The housing market is facing a severe crisis worse than the Great Financial Crisis, with increasing expenses and a lack of awareness among industry professionals.
    • Wright predicts that the upcoming storm in the real estate market will be worse than the Great Financial Crisis, specifically a category five hurricane, and suggests that people should pay attention to the situation.
  • 01:00:09 Seek professional advice and make informed decisions in the current housing market, as significant changes are expected and emotional decisions should be avoided.
    • Melody Wright can be followed on Twitter, LinkedIn, Substack, and YouTube, where she aims to respond to everyone and emphasizes the importance of making informed decisions with professional support rather than acting impulsively.

Tucker Carlson Episode 24: Interview with Argentina Presidential Candidate Javier Milei

Tucker Carlson/ Twitter- X ... (From September 16)

Ep. 24  Argentina’s next president could be Javier Milei. Who is he?

Tucker traveled to Buenos Aires to speak with him and find out.

  • (0:00) Intro
  • (3:32) Inflation
  • (6:00) Gender ideology
  • (9:57) Abortion
  • (11:45) Pope Francis’ affinity for dictators
  • (14:45) Architecture
  • (17:52) Advice to Americans and Donald Trump
  • (22:23) Climate change
  • (27:55) China
  • (29:18) Prayer
  • (30:39) Violent political protests

Andrew Maguire– Russia Driving the Multi-Trillion Gold Runaway Train

Kinesis Money ... (From September 12)

Timestamps

00:00 Start

02:00 The short-term data you won’t get from the mainstream media

08:00 The Fed: The only central bank short on gold

15:00 The evolving gold barter trade

18:30  Are the mainstream media getting the threat of a BRICS alternate currency wrong?

22:15 The potential trillion+ dollar expansion of the gold trade and how Russia fits in

30:00 How the gold barter trade is happening right now

Quick Summary Bullets:

Russia’s Influence in the Global Economy

  • “This is a multi-trillion dollar trade.”
  • Russia’s involvement in the gold and silver markets is causing controversy and has significant implications for the global economy.
  • Russia is actively facilitating the trade of physical gold bullion to establish a stable index for a new global currency backed by commodities.
  • Russia’s chairmanship of the BRICS in January will give them control over a significant portion of global oil production, potentially challenging the dominance of the dollar in international markets.
  • The potential for expansion of the gold barter trade between BRICS members is in the multi-trillions, which is mind-boggling and something that many people haven’t even thought about.
  • Russia is accumulating physical gold in preparation for the Sino-Russian alliance’s plan to create a commodity-backed currency, aiming to control the bulk of price setting mechanisms for global oil production.
  • The trade attracting multiple brokers and increasing liquidity suggests that it has the potential to dominate the multi-trillion dollar energy trade, further solidifying Russia’s influence in the global market.
  • The launch of Russia’s gold-backed currency aims to facilitate settlements for a large component of the current US dollar-denominated global commodity trade, potentially challenging the dominance of the dollar.
  • The increasing demand for gold will raise the offer price in global markets, putting the Fed in a difficult position and causing other central banks to accumulate physical gold.

Controversial Manipulation of the Gold and Silver Markets

  • The Federal Reserve’s pre-planned dollar rescue intervention and hawkish comments caused a sell-off in gold and silver, highlighting the controversial manipulation of the market.
  • With net stable funding ratio compliant first tier physically deliverable spot gold trading increasingly competing with U.S treasuries, the Federal Reserve intervened in gold to prevent it from triggering safe haven and central bank spot gold buy stops.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Russia is driving a multi-trillion dollar gold trade, and if they stop renting, there will be a crash, with the paper to physical gold battle intensifying and short-term market conditions affecting gold and silver futures.
    • Russia is driving a multi-trillion dollar gold trade and if they stop renting, there will be a crash.
    • Andrew McGuire will be joining the show to discuss the truth about the precious metals industry and the global economy, providing exclusive information and insights that cannot be found elsewhere.
    • The paper to physical gold battle is intensifying as there are significant supply and demand developments, with the short-term market conditions affecting gold and silver futures, leading to heavy trading sessions in September.
  • 03:27 The US experienced a significant loss of full-time jobs, prompting the Federal Reserve to intervene and rescue the dollar, resulting in a sell-off of gold and silver.
    • The non-farm payrolls beat jobs headline was accompanied by a guaranteed downside adjustment, but what couldn’t be ignored was the unprecedented loss of 670,000 full-time jobs in just two months, making it the worst unadjusted August payroll since the Great Recession.
    • The Federal Reserve intervened in the market to rescue the plunging dollar and drive the inverse gold and silver sell-off after the release of disastrous jobs data, which led to a spike in safe havens including gold and silver.
  • 06:24 Russia is driving the multi-trillion gold runaway train, with gold becoming a safe haven asset and the Federal Reserve intervening to prevent a potential central bank-driven gold rally.
    • Russia is driving the multi-trillion gold runaway train, with net stable funding ratio compliant first tier physically deliverable spot gold trading increasingly competing with US treasuries as a first-year asset cluster, and the Fed intervened in gold to prevent it from triggering safe haven and central bank sovereign spot gold buy stops.
    • The Federal Reserve was close to losing control of gold, which could have been catastrophic for them, as they are the only central bank that is net short gold, and there is a potential for a large central bank-driven gold rally at the end of the year.
    • Gold’s behavior is changing as it is increasingly seen as a safe haven asset, with both paper and physical gold being sought after, similar to the 2008 financial crisis when gold and silver rallied alongside the dollar.
  • 10:34 The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates could lead to a spike in bond yields, triggering bank downgrades and causing a rally in the dollar and gold, which has become a first-tier asset class and a risk hedge for commodity trading advisors.
    • Banks were failing, so the only choice was to invest in gold and silver, but now the Fed is risking disaster by raising interest rates.
    • The potential spike in bond yields could trigger bank downgrades and lead to a concurrent rally in the dollar and gold, as gold has become a first-tier asset class and more commodity trading advisors are using it as a risk hedge.
    • The mispricing of gold in the COMEX Futures markets has led to a higher price for physical gold in the global markets, as evidenced by the outflows from the exchange for physical and the mispriced LBMA gold fixes, which are deliberately kept off the radar of the CME LBMA supply demand data.
  • 13:41 Russia is using physical gold as a barter currency in the energy trade, expanding the price of gold and draining global bullion into the sino-russia alliance, potentially leading to a shift towards a gold-backed currency.
    • Physical gold is being used as a barter currency in the Russian energy trade, with competing central banks acquiring bullion from the deliverable over-the-counter markets.
    • Russia has implemented a sophisticated trade involving gold and oil that is expanding the price of physical gold and draining global bullion into the sino-russia alliance, all while being kept under the radar.
    • The mainstream media has failed to report on the multiple sideline meetings in South Africa and the subsequent meeting in Moscow, which suggests that there may be a shift towards a gold-backed currency.
  • 17:25 Russia is driving a multi-trillion dollar gold trade that could de-dollarize the global economy, as they acquire physical gold bullion and gain control over global oil production, while the mainstream media overlooks the potential threat to the US dollar.
    • Russia is actively driving a gold-backed currency forward, while the mainstream media has overlooked the potential threat to the dollar hegemony.
    • Russia is actively acquiring physical gold bullion to establish a stable index for a new currency backed by commodities, including gold, which could be used by the BRICS development bank or settled on a trustless blockchain.
    • Russia, along with other BRICS countries, is gaining control over a significant portion of global oil production, which could potentially undermine the dominance of the US dollar.
    • Russia is driving a multi-trillion dollar gold trade that could have a major de-dollarizing effect and is being ignored by mainstream media.
  • 22:19 Russia is accumulating physical gold to back its currency and control the price setting mechanisms for global oil production, attracting bullion inflows and commanding high prices for physically deliverable gold.
    • Russia is preparing to take over the chairmanship of the BRICS and is accumulating physical gold to back its currency, while also competing for spot gold and futures liquidity, with the goal of controlling the price setting mechanisms for global oil production, making gold the beneficiary of this multi-trillion dollar trade.
    • Russia is offering a higher gold price to attract bullion inflows and ultimately back commodities, while also using it as a way to swerve sanctions and rinse specs.
    • Unleveraged physical bullion outflows from spec cartels are causing a drain of physical liquidity from the LBMA ring fence to Moscow’s spot gold and physically backed gold futures platforms, resulting in large premiums being paid to attract bullion and Moscow gold futures commanding high prices compared to the December COMEX futures contract.
    • Moscow Futures are currently trading at a significant premium to the front month comex December contract, indicating a strong demand for physically deliverable gold.
  • 27:27 Russia is using gold to barter with energy buyers, resulting in a discount for energy and inflows of physical bullion, potentially leading to a new currency agreement with BRICS countries and inflationary effects on the US dollar and Western commodity prices.
    • Russia is leveraging heavily on gold to barter with energy buyers, exchanging cheap dollar-priced gold bullion for Russian oil energy grain at a higher dollar denominated price in Moscow, resulting in a discount for energy and inflows of physical bullion to back a larger plan bricks backed commodity currency.
    • Russia is receiving gold in exchange for energy, which is part of a trade that is attracting multiple brokers and will ultimately serve 80% of the multi-trillion dollar energy trade.
    • Russia is ready to participate in the currency agreement with BRICS countries, but is cautious due to potential US sanctions, while India and China are concerned and trying to distance themselves, but the BRICS conference is likely to announce the adoption of the new currency units for international trade.
    • Russia is implementing a gold-backed trade outside of the CME LBMA ring fence, which will eventually set the global price and have massive inflationary effects on the US dollar and Western commodity prices.
    • Increasing demand for gold will raise its price in global markets, allowing Russia and other central banks to accumulate physical gold while the Fed is left short, as the energy trade enables Indian buyers to bypass the CME LBMA ring fence and take advantage of the gamed global PM fixed prices.
    • The Euro has lost significant ground in global trade, with the U.S. price influencing European gold markets and causing a drain of physical gold into Russia, so it is important to differentiate between physical gold and silver markets and the casino paper gold and silver markets.

Brace For 50%-70% Market Crash, $150 Oil, Housing Collapse | Todd Horwitz

David Lin ... (From September 14)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Economic Predictions and Market Analysis

  • “Banks are borrowing at a record pace on the emergency lending rate from the Federal Reserve, similar to what happened before the big collapse in 2008.”
  • Brace for a 50%-70% market crash and a housing collapse, as the weakening economy may lead to a decrease in demand and force prices to go up, impacting consumers worldwide.
  • “I got a feeling that next year you might see all-time new highs and all you might be. See about 150 plus.”
  • “Look at the highest tax states in the United States California New York and Illinois and they’re always broke and they’re charging ridiculous amounts of taxes, whereas Florida and Texas are flush with cash and they don’t charge taxes.”
  • “The FED lost control” implies that the Federal Reserve’s actions and policies have not been effective in managing the market, potentially leading to negative consequences such as a market crash.
  • The housing market may experience a collapse due to people being unable to afford higher mortgage rates, resulting in sellers unwilling to sell their homes at lower prices.
  • Todd Horwitz predicts a 50-70% market crash and a housing market collapse, comparing it to the 2008 financial crisis.
  • “There’s a huge sell-off coming.”
  • “My entire portfolio is hedged to a maximum risk of about three percent.”

Impact of Oil Prices and Energy Market

  • “I would suspect that oil will be over a hundred dollars before the year is over.” – Todd Horwitz predicts a significant increase in oil prices due to Saudi Arabia’s control over production and the United States’ low inventory levels.
  • Despite having enough oil in the country to last 300 years at current usage, the government chooses not to drill their own oil due to financial incentives from OPEC and other sources.
  • Expect $150 oil prices in the future.
  • Todd Horwitz suggests that oil prices could reach $150, highlighting the possibility of significant volatility in the energy market.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Todd Horwitz predicts a significant market crash and believes that the S&P 500 has already peaked, with warning signs including banks borrowing at a record pace, declining grain markets, and true inflation being closer to 20%, while oil prices are expected to reach over $100 by year-end.
    • Retail traders are ignoring warning signs such as banks borrowing at a record pace and the grain markets getting hammered, while true inflation is likely closer to 20% when considering food and energy.
    • Horwitz  predicts a significant market crash and believes that the S&P 500 has already reached its peak for the year, expecting a healthy sell-off in the fourth quarter.
    • He believes that the Bears will take control of the market due to factors such as volume, overall price action, and the ignorance of retail traders.
    • There are warning signs of trouble in the markets, such as banks borrowing at a record pace, the decline in grain markets, and the discrepancy between the reported CPI and true inflation, as well as the overlooked loss of jobs and downward revisions in job reports.
    • Oil prices have been rising due to Saudi Arabia cutting production and the United States having low inventory, and it is predicted that oil will reach over $100 by the end of the year.
  • 04:28 OPEC production cuts will raise fuel prices, while the speaker predicts a market crash, high oil prices, and a housing collapse, questioning the Biden Administration’s delay in restocking the emergency oil reserve.
    • OPEC’s production cuts will lead to a decrease in supply, causing prices to rise and forcing consumers to pay more for fuel.
    • Horwitz discusses the impact of federal gasoline taxes on average individuals and predicts a market crash, high oil prices, and a housing collapse, while also questioning the ability to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
    • The Biden Administration is delaying plans to restock the nation’s emergency oil reserve, causing oil prices to rise, which is part of their strategy to destroy small businesses and allow conglomerates to control the world.
  • 07:22 Next year, there may be all-time highs in the market and oil prices could reach $150, but inaccurate reporting and the exclusion of food and energy costs from the CPI index make it difficult to predict the overall impact; rising service sector prices and the cost of hiring people contribute to high inflation, while companies struggle to pay employees enough to cover the rising cost of living and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control inflation and interest rates cause expenses to skyrocket, leading to a divergence between wholesale and retail prices and a need for higher taxes on necessities like gas; government spending is out of control, resulting in high taxes and financial instability in certain states, while others thrive without charging taxes.
    • Next year, there may be all-time new highs in the market and oil prices could reach $150, but it is difficult to predict the impact on the overall CPI index due to inaccurate reporting and the fact that food and energy only account for four percent of the index.
    • Horwitz discusses how the inflation index, which excludes food and energy costs, is still high due to the rising prices in the service sector and the cost of hiring people.
    • Companies are struggling to pay employees enough to cover the rising cost of living, while the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control inflation and interest rates are causing expenses to skyrocket, leading to a divergence between wholesale and retail prices and a need for higher taxes on necessities like gas.
    • Government spending is out of control, leading to high taxes and financial instability in states like California, New York, and Illinois, while states like Florida and Texas thrive without charging taxes.
  • 10:47 Horwitz  predicts a 50-70% market crash, housing market collapse, and plans to buy properties at a lower price due to overvaluation and high interest rates.
    • He expects the economic numbers to come in better than expected so that President Biden can claim credit for a good economy.
    • He states that they do not find any of the upcoming economic data points important or reliable, except for the ISM numbers.
    • CPI and PPI numbers will have the biggest impact on the market, with the possibility of the Federal Reserve changing their outlook due to inflation, and the prediction that they will remain hawkish until the 10-year reaches six percent.
    • Banks are overleveraged, potential for another COVID shutdown, mortgage rates are not coming down, and there is a slowdown in construction.
    • Due to the increase in mortgage rates, people can no longer afford to buy houses, resulting in a housing market collapse and high home prices.
    • Horwitz predicts a 50-70% market crash, a collapse in the housing market, and plans to buy properties at a lower price due to overvaluation and high interest rates.
  • 15:55 Mid caps and small caps are being intentionally pushed out of business, the speaker predicts a significant market crash and advises traders to make decisions based on technical analysis rather than fundamentals.
    • Mid caps and small caps are being intentionally punished and pushed out of business, causing a divergence between them and big blue chip companies.
    • Horwitz believes that the current market resembles the 90s internet bubble, and although they think stocks are overvalued, they emphasize the importance of making a decision as a trader or investor on when to exit and not succumb to pressure.
    • He predicts a significant market crash and explains that he observes patterns such as a spike followed by sideways movement and lower highs and lows as indicators of a market topping.
    • Discusses the indication of a turning trend in the market, specifically mentioning Apple, and emphasizes the importance of trading based on technical analysis rather than fundamentals.
    • Avises against buying on the dip and is currently shorting the S&P 500, but would consider buying if it reaches certain levels and shows a change in trend.
    • Discusses their approach to trading, stating that they make decisions based on market trends and will stay long or short until there is a reason to change, holding positions as long as they are trending in a certain direction.
  • 21:15 Brace for a 50%-70% market crash, $150 oil, and a housing collapse, as the speaker is short on silver and the S&P, but long on oil, gold, and platinum, with gold having a chance to reach new highs this year.
    • Horwitz is short on silver and the S&P, long on oil, gold, and platinum, and believes that gold has a chance to reach new highs this year.
    • Gold going to new all-time highs is not necessarily correlated with the 10-year continuous moving up, as correlations don’t always happen in the same way, so it’s not a concern.
    • Gold prices have been relatively stable despite the high value of the dollar, and the earlier pop in gold prices was likely due to new money entering the market rather than a reaction to the banking crisis.
    • The market is already pricing in news items, making it less likely for tomorrow’s number to have a major impact, as information flows faster and markets become more efficient.
  • 24:41 Horwitz discusses his experience trading options, emphasizing the importance of risk management and hedging strategies to protect against market volatility.
    • Discusses his experience trading on the floor and how technology has advanced, mentioning their book “Bubba’s guide to trading options” that was written 10 years ago and sold out on Amazon.
    • Horwitz wrote a book to share his trading strategies and help others who struggle with investing and trading, offering PDF copies to interested listeners and watchers.
    • Trading options without proper risk management can lead to financial ruin, but using strategies taught in the book or studies can help mitigate risk and make options trading simpler.
    • Horwitz discusses his strategy of buying and selling options to protect themselves and hedge their portfolio, with a maximum risk of about three percent.
    • Discusses the use of option strategies to amplify risk or reduce risk in trading, and emphasizes the importance of having a risk-averse hedging strategy to protect against adverse market conditions.

Christopher Aaron: Gold and the Miners - Why Isn't There More Interest?

Palisades Gold Radio ... (From September 16)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Market Analysis and Predictions

  • Christopher Aaron suggests that his approach to the markets differs from most investors, as he focuses on fundamental viewpoints such as the economy, debt, and the long-term trend of fiat currencies.
  • The stagnant Dow to gold ratio suggests that there may be a discrepancy between the performance of gold and the stock market, highlighting the potential undervaluation of gold.
  • According to the speaker, within the next 12 to 24 months, there will be an impulsive move in either the direction of mainstream stocks or gold, which could have a generational impact.
  • Physical gold is considered the premier generational form of savings, making it a reliable way to preserve wealth over long periods of time.
  • Aaron predicts that gold could potentially reach levels as high as $2300-$2500 within the next 18 to 24 months, indicating a potential dramatic increase in value.
  • “So many of the people in this industry in the investment industry are literally storytellers. Their job is to tell you a story and they get paid if you click on the video or on the article.”

Socioeconomic Impact and Paradigm Shifts

  • “If you were to tell the established industry of the whale oil industry that one generation later they’ll all be out of business and that we’ll be mining extracting oil from the ground that occurs naturally, they would say you’re totally crazy you’re off your rock.”
  • Our potential as a species is experiencing exponential growth, as evidenced by our progress from horses to the surface of Mars in just 110 years.
  • There is a major paradigm shift happening in the global economy that will impact not just mining enterprises, but the entire world.
  • Investing in precious metals is seen as a way to fight against the corruption of central banking and fiat currency.
  • “It’s not just the numbers in your account that provide you the freedom. It’s everything all of the laws and the sovereignty that you retain and the freedom that that monetary compensation allows you to have.”

Historical Performance and Trends

  • During the major bull markets in gold in the 1970s and 2000s, the Dow Jones lost a significant percentage of its value relative to gold, highlighting the strength and attractiveness of gold during times of financial crisis.
  • The Euro breaking down against the dollar indicates a long-term trend of dollar strength, potentially lasting for 35 to 40 years.
  • The price data suggests a consistent trend of strength in the US dollar, with higher highs and higher lows over the past 15 years, indicating its continued dominance as a reserve currency.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Despite a recent period of low activity, gold’s value is expected to increase due to the current economic environment, but the sideways price action has negatively impacted interest in the gold mining sector, causing many to look for other investment opportunities.
    • Gold’s value is expected to increase due to the current economic environment, despite a recent period of low activity in the precious metals market.
    • The valuations of gold mining companies, both large and small, have significantly decreased in the past few years despite the price of gold being relatively stable.
    • Investor psychology is largely influenced by the movement of an asset class, and in the case of gold, the sideways price action over the past three years has negatively impacted interest, with investors waiting for a catalyst to determine if it will resolve to the upside or if it has reached a long-term top.
    • The gold mining sector has been negatively affected by sideways price action, causing many people to lose interest and look for other investment opportunities, but the speaker approaches the market differently by considering fundamental viewpoints and the long-term trend of fiat currencies.
    • Starting with fundamental beliefs and extrapolating price action can be a dangerous way to evaluate markets, as evidenced by those who correctly understood the housing market problems leading up to the 2008 crash but were still blindsided.
    • Investing based solely on fundamentals is not reliable because even if one is correct on certain fundamental factors, it does not guarantee that other factors will align accordingly.
  • 06:57 Despite the flat price of gold, there is a lack of interest in the gold miners market, possibly due to other factors at play and the importance of considering different perspectives.
    • You cannot accurately predict price expectations based on the sum of information because it is impossible to know if all the fundamental narratives impacting the market have been considered.
    • Place emphasis on the price of assets as investors, rather than getting caught up in the debate over various fundamentals that may or may not be influencing the market.
    • Having tunnel vision and focusing only on a few narratives or data points can prevent us from considering other perspectives and potentially being wrong in our beliefs.
    • Focusing solely on the problems with fiat currency and unsustainable spending is correct, but it is important to consider what is happening in other areas and not just in one’s own hometown.
    • There is a lack of interest in the gold miners market despite the relatively flat price of gold, and the speaker suggests that there may be other factors at play that are impacting this market.
  • 13:10 The price of gold has doubled in the last seven years, but the ratio between gold and the stock market has remained flat, indicating a potential upcoming impulsive move either upward in favor of mainstream stocks or downward in favor of gold within the next 12 to 24 months.
    • The price of gold has doubled in the last seven years, while the ratio between gold and the stock market has remained flat.
    • The average investor who has invested in stock index funds has performed just as well as precious metals investors, as both asset classes have doubled in value, which is a rare occurrence.
    • Gold has never been in a bull market where its value has doubled while the Dow to gold ratio has remained stagnant, which has occurred during the 1970s and the 2000s.
    • The price of gold has doubled over the last eight years, but the ratio between gold and mainstream stocks has remained flat, indicating a potential upcoming impulsive move either upward in favor of mainstream stocks or downward in favor of gold within the next 12 to 24 months.
    • The stagnant Dow to gold ratio over the past eight years has caused mining company valuations to remain low, with only brief periods of performance since 2015.
  • 19:03 Investors should consider the potential growth in technology and diversify investments in various themes and trends, while also recognizing the importance of savings and the potential impact of advancements in technology on the gold and mining industry.
    • Investors in precious metals need to consider the debate between gold and fiat assets as a secondary debate compared to the potential growth in technology, but the importance of savings should not be neglected.
    • Physical gold is the premier form of savings for preserving wealth over time, but the question arises whether this is a time for focusing on savings or investing in the growth of our civilization and technology.
    • The whale oil industry in the 1800s faced a similar situation to the gold and mining industry today, where a major shift in technology and energy sources could potentially render the industry obsolete.
    • The discovery of oil in the 1800s and its impact on the whale oil industry serves as an example of how industries can be disrupted by natural resource extraction, highlighting the need to consider the potential of gold and Fiat assets.
    • Within the next decade, there is potential for exponential growth in our species’ capabilities, such as reaching Mars, despite the occasional storms and financial crises.
    • There is a major paradigm shift happening in the global economy due to advancements in technology and mining capabilities, and as investors, it is important to recognize and diversify investments in various themes and trends.
  • 28:22 Gold and the mining industry are expected to see a breakout and reach new peaks, with potential levels of 2300 to 2500, while it is important to focus on raw materials supporting industry and energy, diversify savings with physical metals, and consider investing in growth industries like space exploration.
    • Gold and the mining industry have seen a trend of three peaks near the 2075 level, with a current test at 1880, suggesting a possible breakout in gold.
    • Gold is expected to make one more significant peak in the next one to two years, potentially reaching levels of 2300 to 2500, providing hope for the precious metals sector.
    • Expectations for the precious metals sector to perform well are still present, but it is important to consider the overall strength of the US dollar and focus on the raw materials supporting industry and energy in the mining sector in the later part of this decade and through the 2030s.
    • Raw materials, such as lithium battery metals and uranium, are necessary for the transition to a more sustainable energy future and the growth of industry, making it important to diversify savings with physical metals.
    • Investors should consider the potential for radical transformation in growth industries, such as space exploration, as at some point in the future, humans will leave planet Earth and explore new worlds.
    • Investing in companies that are exploring and developing new territories is more important than saving during times of instability in currency and government spending.
  • 35:36 Investment in raw materials and enterprises drives innovation and allows for the discovery of new frontiers, but many investment industry narratives are just stories, and the euro’s breakdown against the dollar suggests a long-term trend of dollar strength.
    • Investment in raw materials and enterprises is crucial for the exploration of new technologies and advancements in life, as it drives innovation and allows for the discovery of new frontiers.
    • Aaron explains that many people in the investment industry are storytellers who create narratives to extract fees, and the talk about brics countries creating a new currency or abandoning the US dollar is just a story.
    • The 35-year rising trend in favor of the euro has been decisively broken, as shown by the failure to get back above the trend line.
    • The Euro breaking down against the dollar indicates a long-term trend of dollar strength, potentially lasting for 35 to 40 years.
  • 41:11 Aaron discusses the cyclical nature of gold and miners, the strength of the US dollar, and the importance of investing in precious metals to fight against corruption, while emphasizing the potential for increased wealth and individual freedom in the future.
    • He discusses the cyclical nature of gold and miners and mentions that if the Euro to USD reaches the 112 level, it would indicate a false signal in the market.
    • Discusses the strength of the US dollar versus the Euro and other fiat currencies, stating that while fiat currencies may lose value over time, the current market indicates that the US dollar is expected to continue rallying.
    • Discusses the trend of the US dollar and argues that there is no evidence to suggest that it will lose its status as the world reserve currency in the near future.
    • Investing in precious metals is seen as a way to fight against the corruption of central banking and fiat currency, and the speaker, who has been a precious metals investor for over 15 years, believes that central banking should be eliminated.
    • We should focus on thriving as a species and exploring new technologies and resources rather than solely relying on gold to win the battle against fiat currency.
    • Christopher emphasizes the importance of not only focusing on the numbers in our account, but also on the freedom and sovereignty that monetary compensation provides, highlighting the potential for increased wealth and individual freedom in the future.
  • 50:02 There is no investment advice given in this podcast, and listeners are encouraged to educate themselves and make their own decisions.

Maximizing Profits in Turbulent Times: Rick Rule On Preparing Your Investments for the Recession

Expat Money ... (From September 15)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Global Economic Trends and Impacts

  • “Complacency itself should be the author of fear, as 40 years of declining interest rates, globalization, and peace are coming to an end, causing people to lose trust in governments and turn to gold.”
  • Similar processes of increasing material living standards are occurring in other countries like India, Indonesia, and Bolivia, highlighting the global improvement in the lives of the poorest of the poor over the past 40 years.
  • “Increased demand for all kinds of the material building blocks of humankind to the betterment by the way of all.” – Rick Rule emphasizes the positive impact of addressing the lack of access to electricity on the overall improvement of society.
  • “Our species has spent 4.8 trillion dollars in 40 years on Alternative Energy and we’ve reduced the market share of fossil fuels from 82 percent all the way down to 81 percent. Fossil fuel demand will be with us for a very long time.”
  • The net present value of unfunded entitlements at the federal level in the US exceeds $100 trillion, posing a significant challenge for the government to settle this debt without inflating away the value of those liabilities.
  • “We’ve weaponized the US dollar and also because at a very large level like China. They understand that there are holding costs in U.S treasuries.” – Rick Rule on the reasons why countries like China and Russia are stockpiling massive amounts of gold.

Importance and Benefits of Gold Ownership

  • “I am suggesting that they’d be silly at this point in time not to have two and a half or three percent” of their net worth in gold, emphasizing the importance of including precious metals in investment portfolios.
  • “The primary function of gold is to act as a medium of exchange and a store of value, making it a classic definition of money.”
  • “Most people don’t own physical gold, but they need to regard it as insurance.” – Rick Rule emphasizes the importance of owning physical gold as a form of financial protection in turbulent times.
  • Owning gold can be a profitable investment during turbulent times due to negative real interest rates, debt, deficits, and counterfeiting, which can increase demand for precious metals and potentially quadruple their market share.
  • “The beautiful thing about gold is you don’t have to trust anybody. The receipt of payment in gold isn’t a promise to pay, it’s payment.”
  • “Gold helps me sleep nights and stay calm.”

Investment Strategies and Advice

  • Capital-intensive cyclical businesses, such as the gold and oil industries, can experience dramatic price fluctuations due to small imbalances between supply and demand, highlighting the inherent leverage in these sectors.
  • Understanding the difference between “inevitable” and “eminent” can help investors become more patient and comfortable with long-term investment strategies, even if they take several years to play out.
  • “The upside associated with natural resource stocks in a natural resource bull market is so explosive…the quantum increases that you see in the share prices in these circumstances is incredible.”
  • “The ideal holding period is forever when you sell you run the chance of transferring a smart investment to a dumb one.” – Warren Buffett
  • “Almost every piece of real estate I ever sold was a mistake…the power of compounding is jokingly the eighth wonder of the world.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Investors are realizing the lack of investment in natural resources, leading to supply shortages in industrial materials, and are turning to gold and natural resources due to a lack of trust in governments, while the urbanization of China and increasing living standards worldwide have driven up prices for commodities and precious metals.
    • Rick Rule has been involved in the finance industry for 49 years, specializing in natural resource investing and international investments.
    • There is a growing realization that there has been a lack of investment in natural resource-based businesses for the past 40 years, leading to a need for new mines and a lengthy permitting process.
    • Investors are realizing that due to normal growth in human activity, there will be supply shortages in industrial materials within five years, and the increasing lack of trust in governments and each other is leading to a growing interest in gold and natural resources.
    • The speaker reflects on their lack of experience during the previous bull market and suggests that many people may feel uncertain about how to approach the current market.
    • The urbanization of China and the increasing material living standards of the poorest of the poor worldwide have driven up prices for industrial commodities and precious metals, and this trend is likely to continue in other countries such as India, Indonesia, and Bolivia.
    • In the future, the increasing demand for material building blocks due to the improved access to electricity will benefit humanity.
  • 08:39 Investing in extractive commodities can be profitable during a bull market, despite appearing expensive to conventional investors, and understanding political risk is crucial for active investors.
    • Underinvestment in extractive commodities and the increasing internationalization of trade led to a bull market, with dramatic price increases in gold and oil, highlighting the inherent leverage and cyclical nature of capital-intensive businesses.
    • A doubling of the price of platinum does not affect the finished price of a car due to the high utility of the product, and while manufacturers may eventually substitute other materials for copper if its price triples, those who invested in copper beforehand will benefit greatly during the transition period.
    • Resource industries often appear expensive to conventional investors due to low earnings caused by depressed materials prices, but in reality, they can be cheap and profitable when commodity prices rise, demonstrating the market’s tendency to send misleading signals.
    • Investing in technology businesses requires deep knowledge and understanding, and while it is not discouraged, it is important for successful technology investors to analyze their success and determine if they are truly competitive in the sector.
    • Understanding and tolerating political risk is crucial for active investors, with the speaker highlighting personal experiences in California, Chile, and Congo as examples.
    • The border crossing between Uganda and the Congo is difficult, but with the right information and currency, it can be done informally, as tariff collection in Congo is personal and informal.
  • 19:58 Despite a potential recession, investments in natural resources are necessary to maintain supplies and prevent shortages, as the global oil industry is currently underinvesting in productive capacity.
    • Recession may lead to shortages in a range of industrial materials, but if demand remains steady, prices may not change.
    • Investments in natural resources are insufficient to maintain supplies, and the delay in investing has led to attractive pricing and potential government interference through theft or regulation.
    • Copper and fossil fuel demand will continue to be significant for many years despite efforts to explore alternative energy sources.
    • Peak oil demand is predicted to occur around 2065, but due to the belief in transitioning away from fossil fuels by 2030, the global oil industry is currently underinvesting in productive capacity, leading to a potential decrease in production while demand continues to rise.
    • The speaker assumes that there will be a recession within the next five years and believes that a recession will only delay, not eliminate, the supply shortage thesis.
  • 26:43 Timing doesn’t matter in investments, diversify your portfolio with natural resource stocks and precious metals, and consider having 2.5-3% to 20% of your assets in these assets to defend against potential economic downturns.
    • Timing doesn’t matter in investments, and understanding the difference between inevitable and imminent allows for patience and comfort in the long-term outcome, even if a recession doesn’t happen for several years.
    • Investing in natural resource stocks and precious metals is important for portfolio diversification and maximizing profits, as their upside potential in a bull market is significant and their market share should be at least market weighted.
    • Americans should consider having at least 2.5-3% of their savings and investment assets in precious metals and natural resources, and solvent investors should have as much as 20% of their portfolio in these assets to defend against the potential diminution of their living standards in the current economy.
    • Gold is considered a valuable asset that serves as a medium of exchange and a store of value, making it distinct from other commodities.
    • Silver is a unique and volatile precious metal with less utility as a store of value or medium of exchange compared to gold, but it is favored by speculators and has a high demand for various purposes.
    • The speaker emphasizes the importance of considering the industrial and utility aspects of silver, platinum, and palladium in order to accurately assess their future demand, and also mentions the significance of timing in investing in these commodities.
  • 35:15 Owning the best companies in the resource sector, understanding the time value of money, and investing in ETFs or individual stocks can lead to profitable investments in real estate and extractive industries, particularly in the uranium sector.
    • In turbulent times, Warren Buffett’s quotes emphasize the importance of patience in the market and the benefits of compounding in resource companies during a bull market.
    • Investors should focus on owning the best companies in the resource sector to generate beta and take advantage of share price gains and generous dividends, while also considering investments in real estate and other sectors that can obviate the time value of money through economic rent or dividends.
    • Investing in the best companies and focusing on market beta, as well as understanding the time value of money and increasing returns on capital employed, can lead to profitable investments in real estate and extractive industries.
    • Selling real estate can often be a mistake due to the power of compounding, as demonstrated by Grant Cardone who has never sold a piece of real estate since his first purchase, and it can be more beneficial to invest in ETFs rather than individual stocks, according to Chris McIntosh.
    • Investing in ETFs can be a good option for investors who don’t have the time or expertise to analyze individual companies, but for those who are knowledgeable and willing to put in the effort, owning individual stocks may be more efficient and profitable, particularly in the uranium sector.
    • Consider owning either Camaco or a combination of Camaco and Kazakum Prom, along with the Sprott physical uranium Trust, to participate in 85% of the beta in the uranium space with no work and enjoy a good dividend, or alternatively, if you want broader exposure to uranium juniors, consider investing in the uranium ETF.
  • 45:47 Physical gold is a valuable asset to consider during turbulent times, as it provides security and liquidity, while U.S. dollar denominated debt and the U.S 10-year treasury are unattractive investments due to inflation and declining savings value.
    • Physical gold should be regarded as insurance and a form of liquidity, especially in turbulent times, as it provides a sense of security and is a valuable asset class to consider amidst the volatility of fiat denominated debt markets.
    • Inflation has not been accurately measured as the core CPI inflation rate in the United States does not include food or fuel, and the cost of government tax is a larger component of household expenses than shelter, energy, food, and transportation combined, resulting in a decline in the value of savings by about seven percent per annum, making U.S dollar denominated debt and the U.S 10-year treasury unattractive investments.
    • Having liquidity in the form of U.S. dollars is important for taking advantage of potential opportunities during a liquidity squeeze, but it comes at a cost, so it’s necessary to consider asset classes and factors like inflation, credit quality, and quantitative easing.
  • 50:18 Owning gold is a bulletproof investment due to factors like negative real interest rates and increased demand, while countries like China and Russia are stockpiling gold as a form of self-defense against the US dollar.
    • The creation of unbacked currency and the excessive debt and deficits at the federal level in the US pose a significant risk, as the net present value of unfunded entitlements exceeds $100 trillion and the government’s ability to settle this debt without inflating away the value is unlikely.
    • Owning gold is influenced by negative real interest rates, inflation, counterfeiting, and the market share of precious metals, and if these factors increase demand for gold from one half of one percent to two percent, there will be a quadrupling in demand, making it a bulletproof investment.
    • Some groups, like China and Russia, are stockpiling gold because they have been forced to due to the weaponization of the US dollar and the negative rate of return on US treasuries, with Russia even seizing $300 billion worth of US treasuries.
    • Chinese, Iranians, and Russians are turning to gold as a form of self-defense against the US dollar, as they don’t trust each other or the US, and gold doesn’t require trust as it is payment in itself.
    • China owned trillions of dollars of US Treasury bonds for 40 years as they needed an underpriced Yuan to sell goods in the US, and despite not fully trusting the US, they saw US dollar denominated assets as the most liquid and accessible option, but as US interest rates decreased and inflation increased, they had to decrease the value of their holdings.
    • China has been using their foreign exchange surpluses to finance their urbanization and access to markets and raw materials, and while the US has tried to punish them in world markets, China will likely transition out of US treasuries into higher quality assets like natural resources in an orderly manner to continue selling manufactured goods into the US market.
  • 59:38 Gold is a secure investment during economic turbulence, mining and resource stocks are undervalued and act as inflation hedges, and investing in high quality companies with purchasing power is key; Rick Rule is starting a new bank for expats offering multiple currency accounts and loans against precious metals.
    • Gold is seen as a form of insurance and liquidity during times of economic turbulence, and despite the holding cost, it provides a sense of security and the ability to take advantage of opportunities.
    • Mining and resource stocks are a good investment as they act as inflation hedges, have undervalued prices compared to other asset classes, and benefit from demographics.
    • Pay more attention to the investment thesis rather than the inflation thesis, and consider investing in gold, real estate with fixed rate financing, or high quality industrial companies with pricing power as inflation hedges.
    • Berkshire Hathaway earned high returns by owning high quality companies with purchasing power, and while natural resource-based businesses can serve as an inflation hedge, it is important to consider the efficiency of the individual company rather than just the potential benefits.
    • Rick Rule is starting a new bank for expats in the United States that offers accounts in multiple currencies, money market or CDs, and loans against physical precious metals.
    • Earn high interest on your checking account, invest in rental real estate through your IRA, and join a community bank with a nationwide focus for foreign investing, expatriation, precious metals, and contrarian investing.

Gold Is Setting Up For Another Run (GOLD MINERS!) | SHANE WILLIAMS

Liberty and Finance ... (From September 13)

Williams opines investors have the opportunity to capitalize on a potential gold bull run by investing in a company focused on mining in the red L region of Ontario, Canada, which has high-grade gold deposits and the potential for significant growth.

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • Investing in gold miners is seen as one of the best ways to benefit from the upcoming gold bull run.
  • With the current rise in gold prices, there is a lot of potential for the company to leverage and grow their business over time.
  • The Ontario region has seen over 30 million ounces of gold pulled from its deposits, indicating its significant potential for future gold mining.
  • The strategy has minimal impact from the government, reducing taxation effects and allowing for smoother progress.
  • West Red Lake Gold should be closely watched due to its alignment with Rick Rule’s investment strategy and potential for unrecognized value.
  • With a market cap of a billion dollars and $350 million of value being put into it, there is a lot of potential for investors to get in early and be part of the journey as the company grows.
  • The Red Lake Region has very high-grade gold deposits, which highlights the potential richness of the project.
  • Buying assets at a bargain price can accelerate profitable operations and potentially benefit investors.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 There is belief that inflation and economic challenges will lead to another gold bull run in the next few years, making it a fruitful time for investors to get into gold miners.
    • Shane Williams, CEO of West Red Lake Gold, discusses his company and how he found out about Liberty and Finance through mutual friend Sean Kunkun at Bard and Silver.
    • Given the discussion around the Federal Reserve and the amount of money being pushed into the system, there is belief that inflation and economic challenges will arise, leading to another gold bull run in the next few years, making it a fruitful time for investors to get into gold miners.
  • 02:11 Williams plans to build a big company by taking advantage of a bargain acquisition and adding value during the anticipated gold bull run, using a strategy of buying cheap assets and leveraging the gold price run for growth opportunities.
    • There is a setup similar to the past where gold ran up high, and the speaker plans to use that strategy to build a big company by taking advantage of a bargain acquisition and adding value during the anticipated gold bull run.
    • Williams discusses strategy of buying cheap assets, such as the Matson project, and turning them around to grow the business, leveraging the gold price run for growth opportunities.
  • 04:44 The company is focused on mining in the red L region of Ontario, Canada, known for its high-grade gold deposits, but there is concern about government intrusion and nationalization of mines.
    • The company is focused on operating in the red L region of Ontario, Canada, which has a long history of high-grade and deep gold deposits, with over 30 million ounces already extracted.
    • Red Lake is an overlooked opportunity for mining in Canada, but there is concern about potential government intrusion and nationalization of mines.
  • 06:52 Strategy focuses on a project that is already in commercial production, eliminating the need for a long wait and minimizing government influence and taxation effects.
  • 07:34 Dolly Varden, a company with potential and a proven management team, is worth considering for investors as it has key backers, a technical board, and unrecognized value in the market.
    • Rick Rule, founder of the Rule Investment Symposium, has consistently chosen Dolly Varden as a company with potential due to its latent value and proven management team, making it worth considering for investors.
    • The company has key backers and a technical board with experienced individuals who have built large companies, and the market has not yet recognized this.
  • 09:24 The company has a strong team and a lot of potential for growth, with a market cap of nearly $100 million and $350 million of value being invested, making it a good opportunity for investors to get in early.
  • 10:58 A gold project with potential for cash flow and leverage to value is ready to operate, with high-grade ounces in the Red Lake Region and plans to build a hub and spoke system for growth.
    • Williams discusses the value proposition of a gold project that has already been built and is ready to operate, highlighting the potential for cash flow and leverage to value with the expected increase in gold price.
    • He discusses the high-grade ounces in their project, particularly in the Red Lake Region, where they have two projects with a total of 2 million ounces and an additional 800,000 ounces, aiming to build a hub and spoke system around a centralized mill for growth.
  • 13:02 Investors can benefit from buying assets at a low price and can find more information on the company’s website and sign up for regular updates.
    • Investors can benefit from buying assets at a low price and can find more information on the company’s website and sign up for regular updates.
    • Shane Williams introduces his company, West Red Lake gold, and discusses the progress of their operations and the potential benefits of the rising gold price for the company and its shareholders.

Where to Escape Klaus Schwab

Nomad Capitalist ... (From September 17)

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • There will always be a place to escape high taxes and protect your money from government actions, as countries compete to attract wealth and success.
  • Rather than fighting with the government or being constantly engaged in conflict, it is preferable to be far away and detached, as suggested by Doug Casey.
  • The speaker highlights their ability to navigate different countries and their lockdowns during the pandemic, mentioning that Malaysia, where they were living, actually opened up sooner than Florida, challenging the notion that Florida is the best place to go.
  • Different countries have different responses to global issues, highlighting the importance of understanding and respecting diverse perspectives.
  • The World Economic Forum (WEF) may not prioritize the wants and needs of individuals, raising questions about their true intentions.
  • Having the ability to move around and choose from a variety of countries to live in allows individuals to adapt their lifestyle and find the most suitable environment for them, especially during challenging times like the pandemic.
  • To protect their wealth, individuals should consider banking in countries like Singapore or Liechtenstein that focus on keeping assets safe.
  • Having a backup location to escape potential surveillance and high taxes is seen as a way to protect one’s values and beliefs, especially in relation to Klaus Schwab’s ideas.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 There are always places to escape to and find refuge from Klaus Schwab’s domination and the World Economic Forum’s agenda, whether it’s to protect your money, avoid high taxes, or find a better culture or country.
    • Klaus Schwab’s domination and the World Economic Forum’s agenda causing misery and poverty is just an excuse, as there are numerous countries, like Zanzibar, where one can escape and find refuge.
    • There will always be a place to escape to if you want to protect your money, avoid high taxes, or find a better culture or country, as competition between countries will always provide opportunities.
  • 01:43 If you’re concerned about Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum, consider having a backup plan and finding a safe place to live, as suggested by Robert Kiyosaki, without engaging in fights or constant vigilance.
    • If you believe Klaus Schwab and the World Economic Forum pose a serious threat, you can avoid it by having a backup plan and another place to live, as suggested by Robert Kiyosaki, without engaging in fights with the government or constantly being on guard.
    • There will always be a safe place to go, even if the globalists take over America, based on the speaker’s experience living in over a hundred countries.
    • People feel trapped in their countries and obligated to fix them, but different countries have different values and the West is losing control because young people want excessive security measures.
  • 04:10 Not all countries follow the US; Serbia maintains its own culture, diet, and trade agreements with Russia, China, and Europe, while the Balkans embrace traditional gender roles and reject gender neutrality.
    • Not every country follows the US, as seen in the example of Serbia, which has its own culture, diet, and trade agreements with Russia, China, and Europe, showcasing the existence of countries that maintain their own neutrality and identity.
    • In the Balkans, there is a different culture where men and women are comfortable with their gender roles and reject the idea of gender neutrality.
  • 06:21 Countries have different responses to global issues, with some prioritizing their citizens’ happiness over economic wealth, while others align with international policies.
    • Different countries have varying responses to global issues, and while some have implemented measures to protect their own interests, others have chosen to align with international policies.
    • Countries like Bhutan prioritize their citizens’ happiness over tourism and economic wealth, unlike America where passport processing times were delayed during the pandemic.
  • 07:50 In smaller countries, the government is responsive to citizens, while larger countries treat citizens as milk cows; some countries oppose CBDCs, global minimum tax, and sharing banking info, and Nomad capitals can help entrepreneurs and investors.
    • In smaller countries, the government is more responsive to its citizens, but in larger countries, the government treats its citizens as milk cows and does not care about their wants or needs.
    • Most people around the world are not discussing the topics mentioned in the video, but there are countries that oppose CBDCs, global minimum tax, and sharing banking information, and Nomad capitals can assist entrepreneurs and investors of various financial levels.
  • 09:47 Look into Central and South America for residence programs and obtain citizenship in multiple countries to have options and be in a better position in case of unfavorable circumstances.
    • Look into Central and South America for residence programs where you can obtain a permit by meeting certain income requirements and live there without having to actually reside there.
    • There are better cities to escape to, and if you have the means, you can obtain citizenship and set up bank accounts in multiple countries to have options and be in a better position in case of any unfavorable circumstances.
  • 11:40 Escape Klaus Schwab by moving to nomad capital like Paraguay, Singapore, or Liechtenstein, where wealth protection and conservative values are prioritized, and experience full-scale capitalism in a freer economy than the US.
    • Nomad capital is accessible to everyone regardless of wealth, with options such as Paraguay or countries that prioritize wealth protection like Singapore or Liechtenstein, allowing individuals to escape and live in different, potentially more conservative, places.
    • A country that was once communist now desires full-scale capitalism and has a freer economy than the US.
  • 13:45 If you want to escape Klaus Schwab and high taxes, find a place where you can protect your values and finances.

Stock Market Is In Trouble, Says Technician Who Predicted Rally | Milton Berg

Blockworks Macro ... (From September 12)

Quick Summary Bullets:

Market Health and Potential Downturns

  • The technician predicts that the stock market is in trouble and that the market is standing on weak legs, potentially leading to a significant downturn.
  • The technician predicts that the stock market is in trouble based on historical measures and elevated ratios, suggesting a potential decline in the market.
  • The technician predicts that the stock market is in trouble, citing signals that indicate a potential bear market.
  • Historically, the banking index has bottomed along with the S&P and NASDAQ during recessions or crises, making it an important indicator to watch for potential market downturns.
  • “The fact that gold peaked in May might be a leading indicator that the market has weak legs and things are falling apart.”
  • “The market’s reliance on a handful of mega-cap companies like Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Nvidia to lead the rally raises concerns about the health of the market and the lack of broader participation.”
  • The technician predicts a potential bear market due to various factors such as weak market conditions, recession, and negative indicators in different sectors.
  • Milton Berg’s generosity in sharing his time and insights is greatly appreciated by the audience.

Market Analysis and Predictions

  • “I felt that the June low was the Panic low, as it showed sharp changes in sentiment and subsequent actions were just testing.”
  • The combination of small cap, mid cap, and large cap indices showed a breath thrust on October 28th, indicating a potential gain of 20 and further supporting the bullish outlook.
  • “A combination of buy signals on day seven in the past has seen a median gain within six months of 8.84, enough of a reason to cover short and anticipate again ahead eight percent.”
  • “Stock market is in trouble, says technician who predicted rally.”
  • There is a pattern called “The Three Peaks and a Domed House” that suggests the UK’s FTSE 100 will decline below its October lows and potentially reach its March 2020 lows, indicating a potential bear market for the US as well.

Technical Indicators and Signals

  • “The indicator looks for concentrated market action within days of a low or a surge, suggesting potential turning points in the market.”
  • The technician highlights a historical signal where the market makes a corrective low and experiences a significant increase in volume, indicating a potential market rally.
  • “I’m bullish on the banking index based on pure technical analysis, as it had a climax low in May with all the classic headline news and pessimism.”

Impact of Interest Rates and Financial Institutions

  • If interest rates rise and trigger a bear market in bonds, it could lead to a depressionary and deflationary phenomenon, affecting various financial institutions and retirement funds worldwide.
  • The technician predicts a deflationary crisis caused by high interest rates, which could lead to the collapse of more banks and assets.
  • The deflationary forces in the bond market and the Federal Reserve’s lowering of the money supply could have a significant impact on stock markets for decades.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The stock market is in trouble and could potentially experience a downturn, according to technical analyst Milton Berg, who accurately predicted the beginning of a bear market in January and is now predicting a 22% gain based on historical trends and indicators.
    • The market is in trouble and in a precarious situation, with weak legs and the potential for a downturn, according to technical analyst Milton Berg.
    • The speaker discusses how they accurately predicted the beginning of a bear market in January based on technical indicators and changes in sentiment, with the June low being the panic low and subsequent market actions being testing.
    • In January, the speaker discusses a simple indicator that predicts market trends, specifically looking for extreme readings in upside volume, a strong update of at least 2%, and a volume greater than the previous day, which has occurred 26 times in the past.
    • The speaker predicted a bullish signal in the stock market with a projected gain of 46.50, based on previous instances and indicators such as the breath thrust and advancing over declining volume.
    • The speaker predicts a 22% gain in the stock market based on historical trends and indicators.
    • The speaker expresses gratitude for acknowledgement of their bullish prediction on Twitter.
  • 07:43 The stock market is in trouble according to a technical analyst who predicts a potential decline similar to 2007, despite recent buy signals, elevated protocol ratios, and historical data suggesting a potential rally.
    • The speaker, a technical analyst, discusses the number of buy and sell signals in the stock market and mentions that they have not yet met their projections but have seen a series of buy signals.
    • Indices such as the Russell 2000, SP small cap index, and Hank saying index experienced multiple corrections since February, with the most recent correction ranging from 5-13% in various indices.
    • Buy signals indicate that the market is oversold and likely to go higher, as shown by the 10-day put call ratio reaching a six-month high despite the market gaining for six days.
    • The stock market is in trouble as the 10-day and 3-day protocol ratios are elevated, indicating a potential decline similar to the one in 2007.
    • The technician predicts that the stock market is in trouble and not in a bull market, based on past patterns and signals, including a rally before a bear market in 2008 and recent market behavior.
    • The technician predicts that the stock market will rally based on historical data showing that when certain conditions are met, there is an 87.5% success rate of the market making a corrective low and experiencing a significant increase in volume.
  • 16:14 The stock market is in trouble, with weak market rallies, doubts about market continuation, and tightening monetary policy, but there are buy signals suggesting a potential increase, leading to the decision to cover shorts and anticipate an 8% gain.
    • The stock market is experiencing weakness, but there are buy signals indicating a potential increase in the market, leading to the decision to cover shorts and anticipate an 8% gain.
    • The technician predicts that the stock market is in trouble based on various signals, but there is one signal that historically suggests a bull market move, although it has never occurred at the end of a bull market.
    • The speaker believes that the stock market is in trouble due to weak market rallies, doubts about the continuation of the market, sentiment indicating no recession ahead, poor market performance based on gap analysis, and the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
    • The technician predicts that the stock market may be in a long-term bear market rather than a bull market, citing divergences among various markets and the impact of inflation and tightening monetary policy.
    • Gross domestic income has been declining, indicating a weaker underlying economy, and if the market is peaking, it may forewarn a decline in GDP, while the banking index historically bottoms along with the S&P and NASDAQ during recessions or crises.
    • The speaker, a technician, believes that the stock market is in trouble and considers himself a canary in the coal mine.
  • 30:42 The speaker predicts a deflationary crisis caused by high interest rates, warns of trouble in the stock market, and highlights the lack of loans and gaps in the market as indicators of potential economic downturn.
    • If interest rates rise and there is a bear market in bonds, it will lead to a depressionary deflationary phenomenon as most of the world’s assets are tied up in interest-bearing instruments, such as treasuries and zero bonds.
    • The speaker predicts a deflationary crisis caused by high interest rates and believes that many more banks and assets will be affected, although it may be a slow process due to the ability to hide it through certain banking regulations.
    • The speaker predicts that the stock market is in trouble and that a sell signal may come in the near future.
    • The speaker discusses the weakness of the banking index and the decline in the market, suggesting that it may be a sign of trouble in the stock market.
    • The speaker promotes a new functionality called proposals for investment advisors and managers, highlighting its tools for communication with clients and offering a free trial and discount through their provided link.
    • The speaker discusses the lack of loans in the US as a leading indicator of economic trouble and points out the presence of numerous gaps in the stock market, indicating an unhealthy market and potential downturn.
  • 39:44 The stock market rally is showing signs of trouble, with indicators such as put-call ratios and gaps suggesting changing perceptions of a recession and people’s buying behavior influencing market trends, while the lack of momentum and historical patterns in net up volume and streaks and gaps in technical analysis indicate the possibility of a bear market or the end of a bull market, and the Federal Reserve lowering the money supply is negatively impacting inflation and stock markets.
    • The speaker explains that the stock market rally is not as orderly as it appears, pointing to indicators such as put-call ratios and multiple gaps, and suggests that people’s buying behavior and changing perceptions of a recession are influencing market trends.
    • The speaker discusses the rise of zero data expiry options and explains that the ratio of buying puts to buying calls is a more important indicator of market sentiment than the expiration date of the options, and points out a significant pattern in the early stages of bull markets.
    • The technician points out that the current bull market lacks momentum and highlights the historical significance of four successive days of higher percentage gains in the S&P 500, cautioning that this so-called momentum is not necessarily positive and can lead to market declines.
    • The speaker discusses a historical pattern in the stock market where a specific reading of net up volume has occurred multiple times before corrections in the bull market and at the end of a bull market, suggesting the possibility of a bear market or the end of a bull market.
    • Streaks and gaps in technical analysis are not randomly distributed and can indicate both tops and bottoms in the stock market, with the current momentum suggesting a potential new bull market but also the possibility of a recession.
    • The Federal Reserve lowering the money supply is a killer for inflation and stock markets, as the money that was freely floating has disappeared and the reserves and bank deposits have declined, although treasuries can still be borrowed against.
  • 56:34 The speaker predicts volatile and emotional fluctuations in the stock market over the next two months due to cyclical forces, suggesting that a market collapse cannot be solely attributed to the Fed.
    • The speaker discusses the importance of cycle-based analysis in predicting market trends and highlights the cyclical nature of market phenomena such as September being a bad month for the market.
    • Suppliers of commodities are already aware of the seasonal demand patterns for natural gas and oil, and the idea that the sun or moon have an effect on people’s emotions and cause them to make irrational buying or selling decisions is not true.
    • The speaker discusses the cyclical forces that affect people’s emotions and stock market movements, stating that October is only negative when there are cycles involved, and that a slow cycle is beginning on September 14th.
    • The convergence of solar and lunar cycles in September and October may lead to increased buying and selling in the stock market, potentially influenced by natural factors and fundamental forces.
    • September historically has been a bad month for stocks for the past three years, but it could be random, and there are various theories as to why this is the case.
    • The speaker predicts that the stock market will experience volatile and emotional fluctuations over the next two months due to cyclical forces, and suggests that a market collapse cannot be solely attributed to the Fed.
  • 01:05:12 The technician predicts trouble in the stock market due to weak conditions, lack of liquidity, and potential correlation with faltering Chinese equities, while also highlighting upcoming dates that could turn the market.
    • The technician predicts that the stock market is in trouble and highlights upcoming dates that could potentially turn the market, while also discussing the faltering Chinese equities and their potential correlation to a bear market in the United States.
    • The speaker predicts that the stock market is in trouble due to weak market conditions and a lack of liquidity, and while they are currently cautious and have no position in China, they expect to remain long on US stocks until they have evidence to become bearish.
    • The speaker predicts a recession ahead based on the market’s performance and disagrees with economists who believe otherwise, citing evidence of two consecutive quarters of negative real growth.
    • The inverted yield curve can exist while the stock market goes up, but now it may be right to worry about a slowdown causing a decline and potential banking crisis.
    • The stock market is in trouble as many markets and real stocks are weak, with only a few mega-cap companies leading the market, which is concerning despite the nature of capitalism and the market having a leading group.
    • Markets ending with narrowness, combined with factors such as sentiment, Federal Reserve tightening, and lagging markets, indicate potential trouble in the stock market.
  • 01:15:19 The stock market is in trouble and a major bear market is imminent, with potential declines surpassing previous lows, and the speaker emphasizes the need to adapt to changing market conditions.
    • The speaker discusses the current state of the stock market, noting that there are no actionable buy signals and that sell signals are still present, indicating a potential decline in the market.
    • The speaker predicts a decline in the stock market and is bullish on the banking index, but cannot pick a long-term asset due to uncertainty, emphasizing the need to adapt to changing market conditions.
    • The speaker predicts that the stock market is in trouble and a major bear market is imminent, based on historical patterns and current indicators such as emotional buying, market tops, and various economic factors.
    • The stock market is in a precarious position, with narrow fundamentals and the potential for a bear market that could surpass the lows of October 2022 and even approach the lows of March 2020, although this is not a prediction but rather a consideration of possible scenarios.
    • Milton Berg discusses the value of his Twitter account for education and providing a taste of his market analysis, while his upcoming book aims to teach readers how to analyze markets and make money based on historical scenarios.
    • The speaker expresses gratitude towards those who have taught and influenced them, and thanks the viewers for watching.
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