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Top Three Videos – August 21, 2023

How Catastrophic Will End of Current Debt Cycle Be For the World? Egon von Greyerz
The Jay Martin Show

Egon von Greyerz opines the current debt cycle is nearing its catastrophic end, posing significant risks to the global economy and highlighting the need to protect against debt and currency debasement.

Quick Summary Bullets:

Global Debt Crisis and Impending Collapse

  • “I think it could be catastrophic for the world.”
  • The overwhelming danger and risk is the debt, and the debt markets will crash, regardless of government and central bank interventions.
  • The current global debt has skyrocketed from $4 trillion in 1971 to a staggering $375 trillion, highlighting the consequences of a lack of financial discipline and the potential for a catastrophic implosion.
  • “That implosion of the markets or Bond values, that’s what was going to kill the world economy totally.”
  • U.S. debt has increased by a mind-boggling $21 trillion in just the last four years.
  • The current global debt bubble is unprecedented, as it encompasses every single country around the world, making it a much bigger cycle than before.
  • Egon von Greyerz expresses concern about the potential catastrophic impact of the current debt cycle, suggesting that it could be a significant threat to the world.
  • “It’s just a question of understanding that you’re looking at a risk that globally has never ever been seen in history before.”
  • China’s debt situation and speculative bubble will burst, causing major economic consequences not only for China but also for the rest of the world.
  • The decline of the dollar and Western currencies, along with the decline of Western standards of living, will lead to a significant shift in the world’s economic landscape.

Geopolitical Risks and Consequences

  • Egon von Greyerz provides a counter perspective on geopolitical events, offering insights that differ from mainstream media and macro thinkers.
  • The potential use of nuclear bombs in the conflict could have catastrophic consequences for the world.
  • “I think that this situation should be solved by some Statesmen actually standing up and saying and there’s only a few years that could do it because there isn’t a single.” – Egon von Grayerz emphasizes the need for strong leadership to address the current debt crisis.

Gold as a Safe Haven Investment

  • Despite the current quiet year for gold, the founder of Matterhorn Asset Management predicts that gold will be the ultimate beneficiary of the world’s problems, making it a steady and gradual investment choice for those seeking to protect their wealth.
  • The impending collapse of the financial system and the debasement of currencies will lead to a major shift away from the dollar, which will have a disastrous effect on Western economies and a significant impact on the gold price.
  • To meet the future demand for gold, which is limited by its finite supply, the price of gold will need to be revalued and increase significantly.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The current debt cycle is nearing its end and could have catastrophic consequences for the world, with declining balance sheets, currency devaluation, civil unrest, and external conflicts, highlighting the dangers of debt and currency debasement and the need to protect oneself from the risks.
    • Egon von Greyerz, founder of Matterhorn Asset Management, provides a unique perspective on geopolitical events and discusses the current state of the U.S Empire and the overlooked threads within the European conflict.
    • The speaker is considering where to establish his family’s foundation to ensure success for future generations, currently looking at Indonesia and Southeast Asia, with passports to Canada and the US, and considering options in commonwealth countries, inspired by his own upbringing in western Canada in the 90s.
    • He discusses the importance of managing one’s mind as an investor and mentions an upcoming interview with Egon Von Greer’s.
    • He discusses the similarities between the current debt cycle and the end of past empires, highlighting the decline of balance sheets, currency devaluation, civil unrest, and external conflicts, suggesting that the current situation may have significant consequences.
    • The current debt cycle is approaching its end and could have catastrophic consequences for the world, as indicated by various factors and signals.
    • He expresses concern about the dangers of debt and currency debasement, emphasizing the need to protect oneself and others from the risks, as governments and central banks may try to manipulate the markets but ultimately have no remedy due to the worthlessness of printed money.
  • 06:37 The current debt cycle poses a high risk of a catastrophic end, with excessive leverage and lack of discipline leading to an explosion of debt and inflation followed by an implosion of assets, and small signals of financial instability are already emerging.
    • Exponential phases, such as hyperinflation, start slowly and then suddenly increase dramatically, similar to filling a stadium with water where it takes 50 minutes to reach 7% full and the last 5 minutes make a significant difference.
    • The current debt cycle will lead to an explosion of debt and inflation, followed by an implosion of assets, due to the excessive leverage and lack of discipline in the global economy.
    • Egon von Greyerz believes that the risk of a catastrophic end to the current debt cycle is very high, and while they do not predict timing, they focus on protecting their own risk and do not believe the stock market will continue to rise, as the implosion of the market or bond values could have a devastating impact on the world economy.
    • Egon von Greyerz warns that just because a catastrophic debt cycle hasn’t happened in our lifetime doesn’t mean it won’t happen, and with the US adding $1.9 trillion in debt annually, it is important to watch for specific metrics that indicate we are approaching a sudden implosion of debt and assets.
    • Small signals of financial instability are becoming more frequent, such as bank failures and increasing defaults, and the Federal Reserve’s instructions to reduce lending will have a disastrous effect on the banking sector and loans.
  • 13:00 The current debt cycle is reaching its catastrophic end, with commercial property in the US and Europe in a disastrous state and the global debt bubble being unprecedented, leading to potential exponential increase in money printing and inflation.
    • Commercial property in the US and Europe is a disaster, with costs for normal people like food, fuel, rent, and interest rates increasing by 10 or 20 percent, not the reported four percent.
    • The continuous stream of money creation has kept the world going for longer than expected, but the exponential increase in debt, such as the US debt increasing by 21 trillion in the last four years, indicates signs of a potential catastrophic end to the current debt cycle.
    • The end of the current debt cycle is imminent and will have a significant impact on the world, as it is part of a larger super cycle.
    • The global debt bubble is unprecedented as it encompasses every country, making it the end of a larger cycle where there is no country left to save or lend money.
    • The global debt, including derivatives and the shadow banking system, is likely much higher than officially reported and could lead to an exponential increase in money printing and inflation, with the next crisis being even more severe than the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
  • 19:16 The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding and protecting against risk in order to navigate the potential dark consequences of the current debt cycle, expressing concern about where to build a foundation for future generations and doubts about China’s ability to surpass the US as the leading global power.
    • Egon von Greyerz emphasizes the importance of understanding and protecting against risk in order to navigate the potential dark consequences of the current debt cycle.
    • He discusses the unprecedented global risk of the current debt cycle and expresses concern about where to build a foundation for future generations due to uncertainty, leading them to prioritize optionality.
    • He discusses the importance of finding a geographical location to set up a foundation for future success for his family, while also expressing doubts about China’s ability to surpass the US as the leading global power due to issues such as demographics, debt, and vacant real estate.
  • 22:49 The world needs to change its values and focus on helping each other instead of material possessions, as there is a global risk everywhere and finding a fair country to live in is becoming more difficult, with China facing major economic problems due to its debt and speculative bubble.
    • It is difficult for most people to decide where to live and how to protect themselves, but the speaker has the luxury of being able to move between different countries.
    • Switzerland is considered the best country economically and in terms of safety, with a political system that is the best in the world, but ultimately, survival is about having a support system of family and friends, which doesn’t require much cost.
    • We need to change our values and focus on helping each other instead of material possessions, as the world has lost its sense of value and needs to start fresh.
    • There is a global risk everywhere, making it more difficult to find a fair country to live in, with increasing migration into the US and Europe.
    • China will face major economic problems due to its debt and speculative bubble, but its closed economy and capital system will allow it to handle the financial collapse internally, although there is a risk of social unrest if they fail to provide food and shelter for the people.
  • 28:03 The conflict in Ukraine is a proxy war between the US and Russia, with the US leading the Western world in imposing sanctions and sending weapons, but a negotiated settlement is necessary to prevent further loss of life and potential nuclear catastrophe.
    • The Ukrainian War is not a conflict between Ukraine and Russia, but rather a situation where the United States is leading the Western world in imposing sanctions, sending weapons, and causing unrest, while the people of Ukraine, Russia, and the US do not want war.
    • There is no attempt to settle the conflict in Ukraine peacefully, with everyone instead sending more money and weapons, but Ukraine will never win against Russia and if nuclear bombs are used, it will be the end of the world.
    • America should stop sending weapons and money to Ukraine in order to end the war, as a negotiated settlement is necessary to prevent further loss of life.
    • There is a lack of strong leadership and statesmen in the world who can address the current debt crisis and take necessary action.
    • The war in Ukraine is going badly for the country and the West should intervene to stop it, as Europe is weak and the leaders are ineffective, leading to negative consequences for the people and the economy.
    • The conflict between Russia and Ukraine may be a proxy war between Russia and the US, potentially influenced by the trade war between China and the US, with energy playing a strategic role in the conflict.
  • 38:20 Germany’s lack of affordable energy and the strategic role of energy in the proxy war between China and the US may lead to capitulation throughout Europe, while Russia’s sanctions and NATO’s surrounding presence are causing tensions, and the separation of nations from trade due to political conflicts poses a significant problem, especially as peak energy has been reached in the world, resulting in increased costs and a lack of viable alternatives.
    • Germany’s lack of access to cheap and affordable energy, as well as the strategic role of energy in the proxy war between China and the US, may lead to capitulation throughout Europe.
    • Russia finds it unacceptable to have NATO countries surrounding them, and the US and Europe are seen as weak and obedient to US instructions.
    • Russia is being sanctioned by a small but powerful part of the world led by the US, and Germany’s suffering due to the sanctions could have been avoided.
    • Nations’ separation from trade due to political conflicts, particularly Germany from Russia and China, poses a significant problem, as modern wars often revolve around energy, which is further complicated by debates on CO2 emissions and global warming.
    • Peak energy has been reached in the world, leading to increased energy costs and a lack of viable alternatives, resulting in a future of less or more expensive energy for the world as a whole.
    • Germany and other countries have closed down nuclear plants, but alternative energy sources like wind and solar power are not yet capable of replacing fossil fuels due to the lengthy construction process and the inability to store the energy.
  • 46:15 The impending collapse of the current debt cycle and shift away from the dollar will have disastrous effects on Western economies, leading to a significant increase in the price of gold, which will become the natural replacement for the dollar as a central bank reserve.
    • The world’s dependence on fossil fuels and the lack of viable alternatives will lead to a decline in living standards for the next few decades, and the countries with natural resources will gradually take over the world.
    • Russia’s long-term power will be strengthened by its natural resources and collaboration with China, while the decline of the West, including the dollar and living standards, will lead to a significant shift in global dynamics, and this transition will occur over the next few decades.
    • Central banks all over the world are stockpiling physical gold at a rate not seen in decades, with Singapore being the largest acquirer last quarter, indicating that gold is seen as a safe haven asset amidst global risks and currency debasement.
    • The impending collapse of the current debt cycle, along with the debasement of currencies and the shift away from the dollar, will have a disastrous effect on Western economies and lead to a massive increase in the price of gold.
    • Gold will become the natural replacement for the dollar as a central bank reserve due to its value, but it will need to be revalued and its price will increase due to limited supply and future demand.
    • Egon von Greyerz predicts a massive shift in the coming years that will have costly consequences for those who don’t see it, and urges people to start worrying about risk rather than making money.

Marin Katusa- Is The U.S. Dollar Going To Zero? How Superpowers Rise And Fall
David Lin

Quick Summary Bullets:

The role and impact of the US dollar in global trade and geopolitics

  • “One of the themes that we examine in global geopolitics is the theme of de-dollarization, one of the facets of de-dollarization is the weaponization of the dollar.”
  • Other countries are seeking alternatives to the US dollar to avoid being subjected to US sanctions and the weaponization of the dollar.
  • “They can’t just reinvent it to the Juan and if and if the one is so strong why don’t they depeg you know everyone talks about this you know where they’re going with the remimbi well then why don’t they DPAC because they know the reality.” – The US dollar’s strength and stability compared to other currencies like the Chinese yuan is a significant factor in its global dominance.
  • The global economy heavily relies on the US Dollar, making it the prime currency for international trade and negotiations.
  • The speaker believes that investing in the U.S. and positive swap line nations is a no-brainer compared to the risks in other nations, highlighting the potential for capital velocity.
  • Nations trading commodities prefer the stronger US dollar, even if their domestic currency is depreciating, emphasizing the importance of the dollar in international transactions.

The potential rise of the United States in resource production

  • The revolution in American fracking technology has had a significant impact worldwide, extending beyond the energy sector to other resources like uranium and lithium.
  • The speaker highlights the potential for the United States to rise in terms of resource production, citing the country’s untapped resource endowment and the presence of high-grade gold mines and large producing mines for various commodities.
  • Companies are investing in safe jurisdictions like North America and Australia to de-risk their portfolios and protect their investments in the natural resource sector.
  • The use of advanced technology has the potential to greatly enhance the productivity and output of various industries, as seen in the 60-fold increase in uranium production in Kazakhstan within 20 years.
  • The U.S. has massive deposits of rare earth elements, indicating a potential rise in the mining sector and a shift away from emerging markets.

Concerns and debates about the future of the US dollar

  • “The dollar will soon become as disposed as toilet paper.” – The controversial claim that the U.S. dollar is on the verge of losing its value.
  • The speaker argues that the American dollar is not going to collapse, countering the belief of gold bugs.
  • The rising debt and deficit levels, partly due to MMT and decades of overspending, will eventually have consequences that need to be addressed.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Despite concerns, the US dollar is not going to zero due to global alliances, technological advancements, and energy transitions, and gold remains a good investment; however, income inequality, rising costs, and limited options may lead to frustration and the need for solutions like modern monetary theory.
    • Katusa disagrees with the idea that America is losing its luster and argues that despite the issues, the reality is quite the opposite.
    • The US dollar is not going to zero because of the global alliances, technological advancements, and energy transitions happening worldwide, as discussed in the book written by the speaker.
    • Gold is a good investment despite potential deflationary pressures on commodities, and America’s resource-rich areas and technological advancements in mining suggest that the country’s decline is not imminent.
    • The speaker argues against the belief that the U.S. dollar is collapsing, stating that facts outweigh ideology, and discusses the relationship between modern monetary theory, income inequality, and the current state of the housing market in North America.
    • The increasing barriers to ownership, rising costs of living, and limited options for the masses will lead to frustration and the libertarian solution is not viable.
    • MMT will be a solution to prevent riots and will gradually incorporate new ideas into the system, potentially causing inflation and further devaluation of the dollar.
  • 07:28 The decreasing cost of technology allows for better apps at a lower price, while MMT may be a solution for deflationary markets, but blurring the lines between monetary, fiscal, and political policy could lead to consequences for rising debt and deficits.
    • The cost of technology is decreasing, allowing for more computing power and better apps at a lower price.
    • MMT may be the solution for a deflationary market, but blurring the lines between monetary, fiscal, and political policy could lead to consequences for rising debt and deficits.
  • 10:00 The US dollar is declining, so it’s important to invest in tangible assets like housing and gold, but be cautious of politically unstable jurisdictions; other countries are seeking alternatives to the dollar, but currently there is no viable alternative currency.
    • The government will continue to delay addressing the issue of the declining US dollar, so it is important to invest in tangible assets like housing and gold, but be cautious about holding these assets in politically unstable jurisdictions due to the trend of de-dollarization and the weaponization of the dollar.
    • Peers and adversaries of the US are seeking alternatives to the US dollar due to concerns about sanctions and the weaponization of the dollar, but currently there is no viable alternative currency.
    • Nations like India will join other countries in diversifying their assets and investments, but they will not abandon the US dollar due to its technological advancements and investments in infrastructure.
    • The US dollar remains strong despite the challenges in America, and other countries like China are dependent on it for their economic growth.
    • Be cautious of geopolitical risks in politically unstable jurisdictions as governments may take assets from foreigners through nationalization or increasing taxes, as seen in the lithium sector in Chile.
    • The demand for commodities and the desire to de-risk portfolios are driving companies like Glencore to invest in North America and Australia.
  • 16:17 The US dollar may not be dethroned, but the US could achieve GDP growth with inflationary and deflationary pressures, making investing in the US and positive swap line nations a better option due to abundant natural resources.
    • The BRICS nations are considering expanding their membership to other countries, and the Prime Minister of the most populous nation, China, has openly expressed interest in this.
    • Many nations are seeking investment, but the US dollar remains the dominant global currency.
    • The US dollar may not be dethroned, but the US could potentially achieve a GDP growth rate of 2.5-3% with the possibility of both inflationary and deflationary pressures.
    • Investing in the US and positive swap line nations is a better option compared to other nations due to the abundance of natural resources like lithium and uranium.
  • 19:59 The US dollar is preferred for trading commodities due to its strength, while countries like China and Chile have an advantage in production due to their abundant resources.
    • American technology has greatly increased production in Kazakhstan and Utah, but there is still a lack of modern technology in certain areas.
    • There are massive deposits of gold and rare earth elements in the US and other countries, and it was more profitable to invest in emerging markets in the past, but now it is possible to return to North America for mining.
    • The reason why countries like China and Chile are ahead in terms of production of commodities like copper is because they have abundant deposits and have been aware of these resources for a long time.
    • The US dollar is preferred by nations trading commodities because it is stronger than their depreciating domestic currencies.
  • 24:26 The US government is working on increasing domestic production of critical metals, but obtaining permits for new mines, especially for nuclear materials, is difficult; however, the supply chain of critical minerals is being secured through initiatives and bids, and while China’s weak growth may impact investments in critical metals, the demand for lithium from automakers like Tesla is expected to remain stable.
    • The US government is working on increasing production of critical metals domestically, particularly in areas with existing mines, but the process of obtaining permits for new mines, especially for nuclear materials, has become more difficult and is unlikely to become easier.
    • The process of reinvesting in the U.S. oil patch and the development of fracking took many years before it became successful.
    • The US government is implementing an initiative to secure the supply chain of critical minerals by offering bids to companies, as seen in the example of uranium production, where there has been a significant decrease in production but it does not mean that uranium has disappeared.
    • Investors are concerned about the impact of China’s weak overall growth on their investments in critical metals, particularly copper, but the demand for lithium from automakers like Tesla will likely remain stable.
  • 28:33 Be cautious when investing in mining projects with high capital expenditure and permitting delays, focus on past producing areas with analog data and utilize new technology to identify potential mining districts; consider political risks and metallurgy, and prioritize copper, gold, uranium, and lithium over iron ore. Additionally, nuclear power is experiencing global growth with China, India, Russia, and the Middle East investing in it, while Germany shuts down its nuclear power plants but imports power from France.
    • 350 is a breaking point due to high capexes and permitting delays in Chile and Argentina, where money is difficult to get out due to fixed exchange rates and taxes, but there are still valuable copper deposits globally.
    • Government interference in companies like Rio Tinto in Mongolia can be rare but significant, so it’s important to consider increasing your discount to your net asset value when investing.
    • To succeed in the mining industry and meet the rising global demand for critical minerals, it is important to focus on past producing areas with analog data, digitalize the information, and utilize new technology to identify true mining districts with a large-scale potential for long-term success.
    • Investors should be cautious about investing in projects that require permits and have high capital expenditure, and should consider the type of metallurgy and political risks involved, with a focus on copper, gold, uranium, and lithium rather than iron ore.
    • Nuclear power is experiencing a global shift with China, India, Russia, and the Middle East investing in it, while Germany shuts down its nuclear power plants but imports power from France, indicating that nuclear energy is here to stay and will continue to grow.
  • 33:54 China’s rise as a superpower and the potential decline of the US dollar is inevitable, but investing in defense, cybersecurity, and lithium supply is advised to go along with the current trend.
    • Marin Katusa publishes weekly free research at katusaresearch.com, which includes missives and videos, and has been publishing for many years.
    • China’s rise as a superpower and the potential decline of the US dollar is inevitable, but investing in gold as a hedge against this shift is not correlated to one’s investment horizon, and the housing issue in China and the actions of its leader, Xi, will be a significant catalyst to watch.
    • The US dollar’s value may be influenced by factors such as tracking commodity prices, the stability of the economy, and the actions of bureaucrats, which could have implications for China and other countries.
    • Investors should consider investing in defense and cybersecurity as the capital is likely to flow in those areas, and there is a growing demand for lithium supply from auto manufacturers like GM, Tesla, and Ford in the U.S.
    • The US dollar is currently attracting capital from both external forces and the US government, and it is advised to go along with this trend rather than fight against it.

Things Are Breaking - Lawrence Lepard
Stephan Livera

Quick Summary Bullets:

Concerns about the Financial System

  • According to Lawrence Lepard, the market is not fully accepting the fact that we are now living in an inflationary world, which is a significant insight for investors to consider.
  • The bond market will eventually realize that printing money endlessly is unsustainable, leading to much higher interest rates and a potential financial explosion.
  • “That’s going to make 2008 actually look relatively contained.”
  • If central banks lose control of the bond market and are forced to buy bonds to keep rates low, it could spell disaster for their system.
  • The longer the government delays taking action, the larger the amount of money that will need to be printed, potentially leading to a substantial increase in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which could reach as high as 20 or 30 trillion dollars on the next print.
  • The monetary piece is a fundamental problem in the current system, and the fourth turning is a time when the money is breaking.
  • The creation of trillions of dollars during crises, with an expectation of even larger numbers in the future, raises concerns about the competence of those in charge and the potential negative consequences for society.
  • The fiat system is at risk of collapsing, and governments may take drastic measures to save themselves, leading to a potential monetary reset.
  • Lawrence Lepard predicts that the dollar will become worthless within his lifetime, between 2028 and 2032, due to the math behind its current state.
  • “The people who’ve done extraordinarily well on a crazy Fiat system, you know they’re going to be wiped out and poor.”
  • The only way to bring about massive change is when everything is so messed up that everything is on the table.
  • It’s time for reform and to fix the broken and unfair system for the sake of future generations.
  • At the end of this decade, the current financial system will go through substantial change, leading to a better currency system and the resolution of a significant amount of debt.
  • The odds are high that the US dollar becomes worthless due to the excessive debt to GDP ratio, which has historically led to default or massive inflation in other countries.
  • The dollar is losing its dominance as countries are starting to invoice each other in their own currencies and trade directly, bypassing the dollar.
  • As a long-term investor, I’m comfortable watching the circus unfold, knowing that the mathematics of the situation will ultimately maximize my investments.

Inflation and its Impact

  • The widespread inflation caused by the printing of fiat money has disproportionately hurt the most vulnerable, increasing the cost of essential items and making it extremely painful for those living closest to the edge.

Predictions and Forecasts

  • The next run of Bitcoin is expected to push its price through a hundred thousand, signaling the start of a new phase with increased inflation and heightened market activity.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The cost of living crisis, fueled by central bank irresponsibility, is causing financial hardship and inflation, leading to a more individualistic society, while frivolous activities and manipulated markets have global financial consequences.
    • Lepard discusses the cost of living crisis, recession, generational conflict, Boomer hate, U.S government debt, and the breaking of many things, while also promoting the upcoming Pacific Bitcoin Festival as an opportunity to learn about and spread the message of Bitcoin.
    • Menpool.space is a Bitcoin and blockchain Explorer that allows users to view the mempool, blockchain, lightning network, and other statistics, with the added feature of being able to search and target fees for Bitcoin transactions, and it also has integrations with other wallets and a new upcoming feature called the mempool accelerator integration.
    • The cost of living crisis, exacerbated by the irresponsible behavior of central banks, is causing financial hardship for many people, as seen in videos and social media trends.
    • Printing excessive amounts of fiat money has led to widespread inflation, disproportionately affecting vulnerable individuals, and while the end of the fiat money regime is approaching, it will take time and cause more pain; additionally, the availability of fiat currency may have encouraged people to live beyond their means, leading to a more individualistic and less family-oriented society.
    • Frivolous activities like gambling on meme stocks and crypto should be eliminated as they add no value to the economy, and people were misled by manipulated interest rates and markets, resulting in financial consequences globally.
    • Both sides are to blame and this applies to other countries as well.
  • 07:23 Luxury beliefs and bad thinking are prevalent due to broken money, causing problems that would not exist with sound money, and it is crucial to resolve this crisis and move past such thinking, as the current economic situation resembles past crises and inflation is a major concern, potentially leading to a worse financial crisis than 2008 within the next three to six months.
    • Luxury beliefs and bad thinking are prevalent due to broken money, causing problems that would not exist with sound money, and it is crucial to resolve this crisis and move past such thinking.
    • Lepard, who has experienced multiple investment cycles, believes that there are parallels between the current economic situation and past crises, and that the market is not fully acknowledging the shift towards an inflationary world.
    • Jerome Powell’s perceived success is a warning sign that the current period resembles the pre-financial crisis era, with rising interest rates causing problems in the banking sector and commercial real estate, leading to a potential credit collapse.
    • Inflation is a major concern and the speaker doubts that policymakers want a repeat of the 1929 period, as they are responding to the cry to solve the pain caused by inflation, with Powell being aggressive in trying to stop it by releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
    • Unemployment will rise, businesses will struggle, the stock market will fall, and the bond market will realize that printing money is unsustainable, leading to higher interest rates and a potential financial explosion.
    • The speaker predicts that the upcoming financial crisis will be worse than the 2008 crisis, and although the timing is uncertain, it could happen within the next three to six months.
  • 14:31 Mainstream economics ignores its failures and continues to promote its narrative, but the market is larger than central banks and if they lose control of the bond market, it’s all over for them.
    • Mainstream economics, influenced by Keynesian and neoclassical thinking, has ignored the failures of their policies, such as stagflation in the 70s, and continues to promote their narrative despite the pollution of the industry by the Fed and Keynesians.
    • Lepard discusses the issue of fiscal dominance and how central banks resort to measures like bailing out banks and creating programs to keep their broken system going.
    • The market is larger than the central banks and if they lose control of the bond market, it’s all over for them.
    • The US government’s increasing debt and interest expenses will eventually lead to the need for injecting more money into the system through quantitative easing, potentially resulting in a significant increase in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet.
    • Jerome Powell is currently praised for his management, but the speaker predicts that people’s perception will change in the future, and discusses potential strategies the Federal Reserve might employ.
    • The Federal Reserve has various tools and programs, such as interest on excess reserves and reverse repo facilities, to stabilize prices, maintain liquidity, and forgive debt in order to keep the monetary system functioning, despite their failure in achieving stable pricing.
  • 22:20 Lepard discusses the issue of financial dislocation and predicts that currencies will fail due to excessive money creation, emphasizing the importance of owning tangible assets like Bitcoin and reporting ownership for tax reasons.
    • He discusses the issue of financial dislocation and the inevitability of more money printing due to the fundamental problem of debt and the breaking of the monetary system.
    • Lepard predicts that there won’t be a World War, but instead, currencies will fail at an accelerated pace due to excessive money creation, leading to a realization that those in power don’t know what they’re doing.
    • Owning tangible assets like Bitcoin and a tangible, immutable ledger are natural choices to protect against the possible responses of bail-ins, bailouts, and other government policies that may hinder the use of gold, silver, and Bitcoin as exit ramps.
    • Report your ownership of Bitcoin, gold, and silver for tax reasons, as there may be a monetary reset in the future and the government may impose high capital gains taxes on these assets.
    • Lepard believes that the current financial system is disintegrating and predicts that the dollar will become worthless within his lifetime, unless drastic measures are taken to balance the budget and secure sound money.
    • Coinmine offers a range of accessories for their cold cards, including the block clock and metal seed backup product, and you can get a discount on their products by using the code Lavera; Base58 offers classes for learning Bitcoin development, including an upcoming Taproot intensive in-person class, and you can apply for it on their website.
  • 32:16 Massive spending cuts are necessary, leading to economic impact and downfall of those who benefited from a flawed financial system, but change is needed in the US and younger generations may bring about a more egalitarian world; frustration towards older generation in power, student loans should have lower interest rates, and there is an imbalance between generations.
    • Massive spending cuts are necessary, which will have a negative impact on the economy, but it will also lead to the downfall of those who have benefited from a flawed financial system.
    • Lepard believes that significant change is needed in the United States, including potential term limits and a second Constitutional Convention, and that this change will only come about when everything is so messed up that all options are on the table, but there is optimism for a better future.
    • Younger generations, particularly Millennials, are more focused on the well-being of the world and the economy, and there is a belief that they will bring about a more egalitarian world with better values, in response to the pain and inequality experienced by previous generations.
    • There is a concentration of wealth among the Boomer generation, leading to economic difficulties for younger generations, and the speaker understands the frustration towards the older generation in positions of power.
    • Student loans should have lower interest rates, similar to the zero percent interest rate given to banks during the Global Financial Crisis.
    • There is an imbalance between generations, with boomers needing to have their benefits cut, and the speaker also criticizes the healthcare system in the United States.
  • 38:00 Lepard discusses generational strife and the need for reform, emphasizing the importance of fixing the broken system for future generations; potential government control of superannuation funds due to increasing debt; prediction of substantial change and resolution of debt within a decade; concerns about the US dollar becoming worthless; countries trading in their own currencies and realizing the dollar is not a reliable store of value; increasing popularity of gold-backed or gold-linked currencies as central banks recognize the need for value not controlled by governments.
    • Generational strife and the need for reform are discussed, with the speaker emphasizing the importance of not generalizing all Boomers and expressing dedication to fixing the broken and unfair system for the sake of future generations.
    • The government may tap into the superannuation system, similar to the 401K system, to access forced savings and potentially control the funds due to their increasing debt.
    • Lepard predicts that within a decade, there will be substantial change and resolution of debt, resulting in a new and improved currency system, but this will be challenging for bondholders and sovereign debt holders.
    • He believes that the US dollar may become worthless due to the high level of debt to GDP, and although the US is the world’s reserve currency, it does not exempt them from this problem, but other countries still struggle to establish credible alternative bond markets.
    • The dollar is losing its dominance as countries are starting to trade and invoice each other in their own currencies, leading to a realization that the dollar is not a reliable place to store value.
    • Gold-backed or gold-linked currencies are becoming more popular as central banks recognize the need to denominate value in something that governments can’t print, like Bitcoin, which is why they are becoming net buyers of gold and will likely continue to do so.
  • 46:49 Currencies like the Yen are losing value and Japan could be one of the first to fail, as gold and Bitcoin suggest a crisis similar to 2008 is anticipated, with a policy response expected to prevent a Great Depression, while the tightening of monetary policy will have a significant impact in about two years.
    • Currencies like the Yen are losing value and Japan could be one of the first to fail, as the Yen’s slide and rising interest rates would lead to a drying up of liquidity.
    • Things are breaking slowly but surely, and the price of gold and Bitcoin suggests that these sound money assets are anticipating a crisis similar to the 2008 financial crisis despite the current tough monetary tightening campaign.
    • Jay Powell’s words are just words, as he and other officials will do whatever is expedient for them at the time and then claim they had to do it, as seen in the past with the 2008 financial crisis.
    • Lepard believes that a policy response will occur to prevent a Great Depression, as seen in the past, and that the current economic indicators, such as the yield curve and housing market, may take a few years to fully manifest.
    • He predicts that the tightening of monetary policy will have a significant impact in about two years, possibly as early as this fall, drawing a parallel between the current situation and the events leading up to the 2008 financial crisis.
    • Things are going to start happening at an accelerated pace, and while there may be countermeasures that could prolong the situation, the speaker is a long-term investor who is comfortable watching the circus unfold and maximizing their investments for future generations.
  • 53:19 Lawrence Lepard believes that the recent praise for Jay Powell is a negative indicator, predicting a decline in his reputation, and warns of a potential drop in Bitcoin’s price below $30,000 before it rises to $100,000, leading to inflation and a game-changing scenario, while emphasizing the importance of timing in predicting the potential worthlessness of the dollar and advocating for saving in Bitcoin, silver, or gold.
    • Lepard believes that the recent article praising Jay Powell is a negative indicator and suggests that Powell’s reputation will quickly decline, similar to past figures like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke.
    • The financial press and Talking Heads praise the Central Bank and government as great stewards, but skeptics see it as a warning sign and are playing a waiting game, with irony in the situation.
    • Things are breaking and it’s taking longer than expected, but there are exit paths available.
    • Bitcoin’s price may drop below $30,000, presenting a great opportunity to buy, but it is unlikely to happen again as it is expected to rise to $100,000 in the next run, leading to inflation and a game-changing scenario.
    • If total confidence is lost in the United States government, the value of the dollar could become worthless, which is a likely outcome, and although the speaker acknowledges the possibility of being wrong, they believe it is important to have the right timing in predicting this outcome.
    • People who save in Bitcoin, silver, or gold will appreciate the choice of where to put their money, and Lawrence Lepard can be found online at ema2.com and on Twitter as @LawrenceLepard, where he discusses his anti-central bank and anti-fiat money views.
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