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Top Three Videos – August 23, 2023

Is The 2023 Rally Over? | Live Q&A w/ Wealthion's Endorsed Financial Advisors

Wealthion

This is our latest monthly live Q&A with Wealthion’s endorsed financial advisors — John Llodra & Mike Preston from Harbor, Michael Lebowitz from RIA,, and Jonathan Wellum from Canadian firm Rocklic Financial

Quick Summary Bullets:

Economic Trends and Market Outlook

  • “I don’t think so quite yet… signs that a recession’s coming on and I’m a firm believer there’s a recession coming.”
  • Active management and focusing on individual companies may become more important in the current market, rather than relying on sectors or ETFs.
  • “It’s our view that as this bear Market progresses it’s going to be moving a lot lower and probably staying there for an extended period of time.”
  • The fiscal stimulus in 2020 and 2021, with checks being given out and money being printed, has led to a different relationship between the fiscal side and the Fed, potentially resulting in high inflation and public backlash.
  • “I don’t see any reason to suspect that the long-term economic trends in this country, the productivity trends, the inflation trends have changed. They’ve temporarily changed because of everything that’s happened, but I don’t see any reason when we’re looking at 2026-2029 that those trends will still not be in place.”
  • “I think Michael if you’re a bit of a longer term investor you’re looking at this thing for the next couple of years. Then boy. We are really I think at the higher end and the returns could be quite substantial if you’re patient and uh you’re willing to to wait through some of the difficulties.”
  • The housing market in the US and Canada has experienced an unprecedented bubble, with prices increasing by 20 to 30% annually and doubling in the last five or six years.

Investment Strategies and Opportunities

  • The speaker believes that being positioned in bonds before a policy shift by the FED is crucial to not miss out on appreciation in the bond market.
  • Gold mining stocks are undervalued relative to the price of gold itself, making them a potentially profitable investment even if the price of gold doesn’t increase.
  • Gold is relatively inexpensive compared to other periods of time, indicating substantial upside potential and making it an attractive option for protecting purchasing power and wealth.
  • The exposure to copper and nickel in some of the royalty companies’ portfolios aligns with the growing demand for these base metals in the electric vehicle (EV) industry, indicating a long-term investment strategy.

Global Economy and Geopolitical Risks

  •  The impact of China’s economic struggles extends beyond its borders, affecting financial markets worldwide and highlighting the interconnectedness of the global economy.
  • The meeting in Johannesburg is discussing the creation of an alternative Trade Currency, which could potentially be a major shift in direction and a turning point away from the dominance of the US dollar.
  •  The Wealthion conference lineup includes Lacy Hunt as the keynote speaker, indicating the high quality of the event.
  • Kyle Bass will discuss the biggest geopolitical risks to the global economy, highlighting the potential impact on financial markets.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The financial advisors discuss whether the stock market rally is over, with one advisor predicting a recession, and emphasize the importance of monitoring employment as a key indicator, caution in the market, and focusing on businesses with better valuations and sustainability.
    • The financial advisors discuss whether the rally in the stock market is over and express differing opinions, with one advisor believing that a recession is coming.
    • The stimulus and behavioral patterns have had a longer-lasting effect on the economy than expected, and rate hikes take time to impact the economy, so the stock market will likely peak when signs of a recession become more evident, with employment being the key indicator to watch.
    • Michael will be discussing the latest data on the Hope framework at a conference, specifically focusing on the employment side, and there is a question of whether the rally is over or if there will be another resurgence.
    • Most companies are expensive and caution is needed in the market as interest rates are impacting spending, there are slowdowns in the economy, and companies are experiencing little growth, so it will be a tough battle for higher valuations, with only a limited number of companies driving the market up, and it is important to focus on businesses with better valuations, high free cash flow yields, and sustainability in order to weather a tougher environment and increased cost of capital.
    • The speaker discusses the likelihood of recession and the importance of active management in the current market, emphasizing that the employment picture is a lagging indicator.
    • The speaker apologizes for a technical issue and proceeds to show a chart.
  • 09:34 The US employment rate dropping and the S&P breaking through the 50-day moving average suggest a potential recession and market decline, with a near-term target of 4200-4100 and emphasis on picking individual stocks due to sector dislocations.
    • The US employment rate typically drops right before recessions, so it’s not surprising that there is talk of a recession despite the current positive employment picture.
    • The S&P has experienced a pullback, breaking through the 50-day moving average, and it is crucial to see if it can convincingly break through that level to determine the future direction of the market.
    • The speaker believes that the market may falter and suggests a near-term target of 4200-4100, emphasizing the importance of picking individual stocks due to dislocations in sectors, while acknowledging that the overall market is overvalued.
    • The market rally likely ended a long time ago and as the bear market progresses, prices are expected to move lower and stay there for an extended period of time.
  • 13:55 The speaker discusses the impact of interest rates on bonds, the possibility of another bubble and inflation cycle, and the downward trend in GDP and inflation, ultimately concluding that long-term economic trends will lead to lower interest rates and bond yields in the future.
    • Vigilance remains key in considering interest rates and their impact on bonds.
    • The speaker discusses the possibility of the Federal Reserve continuing to manipulate interest rates in the future, regardless of public awareness or potential economic cycles.
    • The speaker discusses the potential for another bubble and inflation cycle due to the fiscal response to a recession, but currently, there is a positive effect on stock prices from QE and the public backlash against the Fed seems minimal.
    • The speaker discusses the downward sloping trend lines of GDP and inflation over the past 40 years, attributing it to unproductive debt in the system and a shrinking growth rate, and questions whether anything has changed in recent years with the addition of stimulus and debt, ultimately concluding that the trends are worse off today due to an increase in nonproductive debt and worsening demographics.
    • Long-term economic trends, including productivity and inflation, are expected to remain unchanged, leading to lower interest rates and bond yields in the future.
    • Interest rates could potentially go back to sub 1%, which would result in a significant gain, but even if they don’t, a 4.25% coupon for the next 10 years would still outperform stocks, and if rates continue to rise, it could further break the economy and push rates lower in the short run.
  • 23:36 The speaker believes that while there may be temporary volatility in the stock market, central banks will eventually ease up on monetary policy due to global pressures, cautioning against unsustainable government spending and potential currency devaluation.
    • Raise your finger if you have something to add, and Michael and Jonathan will respond to a comment about the stock market trading lower before the financial crisis.
    • The speaker believes that while there may be a temporary surge in the supply of bonds, the government will do what it takes to keep interest rates low and manage the debt, and that the current trend of increasing interest rates may not continue indefinitely due to historical patterns and the high level of indebtedness.
    • Investors should be patient and selective in their investments, as the speaker believes that central banks will make mistakes, causing volatility in the stock market, and that global pressures, such as Europe’s lack of growth and China’s command economy, will eventually lead to the need for the FED to ease up on monetary policy, while also cautioning against the unsustainable government spending and the potential devaluation of currencies.
    • The speaker emphasizes the importance of recognizing the lag effect in the market and warns against complacency, stating that at some point there will be a breaking point and central banks will have to react by lowering rates, which could lead to significant changes in the market.
    • The speaker discusses the impact of the FED’s policy change on bond prices and advises being in a bond position before the shift to avoid missing out on appreciation, while also mentioning the potential for interest rates to rise in the short term.
    • Long-term bonds are likely to experience a bounce in the near term, but the speaker believes that the bond market will face challenges in the coming years, and suggests that 10-year treasury bonds may outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade, while also noting that the tech sector could be impacted by interest rate increases.
  • 34:18 China’s struggling economy and real estate market could have a significant impact on the global financial system, with concerns about contagion and spillover effects, making it important to be cautious when investing.
    • The speaker shifts gears to address questions about gold and asks for feedback on the live format.
    • China’s real estate sector is facing significant issues, with major companies like Evergrand bank and Country Garden entering default, which could have a significant impact on the global financial and banking system.
    • China’s struggling economy and real estate market, which has been a long-standing issue, is having a significant impact on the global economy and financial markets, as China was a major driver of economic growth for many developed nations.
    • China’s slowing economic growth and potential capital flight could have negative effects on the US and global economies, with concerns about contagion and spillover effects.
    • China’s exposure to global growth, interest rate increases, and attempts to slow down the economy, along with the misallocation of capital in the real estate market, are reasons to be cautious and watchful when investing.
    • Will there be a significant housing price correction in North America due to higher interest rates, or will we be able to avoid it?
  • 44:06 Housing market bubble in the US and Canada, with potential 20-30% pullback predicted, as bidding wars end and higher interest rates impact prices, leading to a gradual decline followed by a sudden correction similar to a stampede.
    • A meeting is taking place in Johannesburg to discuss the creation of an alternative trade currency called “bricks currency,” with Saudi Arabia and other countries being applicants, and the outcome of the vote could potentially be a significant shift in the markets and the end of the US dollar’s dominance.
    • Housing prices in the US and Canada have been in a bubble, with significant increases in the past few years, but there hasn’t been much of a pullback yet, although bidding wars may be ending due to higher interest rates.
    • The speaker predicts a potential 20 to 30% pullback in the housing market and a larger one in stocks, with housing likely to follow the stock market’s decline by 3 to 6 months.
    • House prices are currently being kept up because people don’t want to sell their homes with low mortgage rates, but once the market fully opens up, prices are expected to fall.
    • Organic transactions, such as deaths, divorces, and job losses, will gradually lead to price discovery and erosion of home equity, prompting some homeowners to sell and potentially initiating a market cascade, especially for those without mortgages.
    • The housing market may experience a correction that starts slowly and then happens suddenly, similar to a stampede.
  • 50:41 Gold and gold mining stocks have potential for growth due to monetary policies and concerns about purchasing power, but it’s important to have a diversified portfolio; investing in the gold sector and energy stocks, particularly Exxon, could be favorable opportunities.
    • Gold and gold mining stocks are an important part of the equation, but they could be affected by a massive selloff in various asset classes, although it may be short-lived.
    • Gold mining stocks are undervalued compared to the price of gold itself, and even if gold prices don’t increase, there is still potential for a rise in gold mining stocks due to monetary policies and the pressures on fiat currencies, but it’s important to have a properly diversified portfolio.
    • Gold is relatively inexpensive compared to other periods of time, and there is substantial upside potential due to concerns about purchasing power protection, the Fed’s need to print money, and central banks buying gold for currency stability.
    • The speaker discusses their investment strategy, which includes buying miners and predominantly royalty companies that generate substantial free cash flow and have exposure to silver, copper, and nickel, which are in high demand for the EV transition.
    • Investing in the gold sector is a good opportunity as some companies have been beaten down and the energy sector is also favorable, although it is tied to the economy and may be affected if the economy starts to decline, but in the long run, energy stocks are cheap and Exxon’s diversification into non-carbon energy makes them a sensible choice.
    • The speaker encourages viewers to seek the guidance of endorsed financial advisors and offers free consultations to help them make informed investment decisions.
  • 01:00:12 The Wealthion conference is happening soon and will feature high-level presentations from Lacy Hunt and discussions on various topics including interest rates, the global economy, inflation, housing market, bond market, natural resource investing, commodity plays, and the energy sector; register now for a discounted price and provide feedback for improvement.
    • The Wealthion conference is coming up and will feature Lacy Hunt, who gives high-level presentations that are worth attending.
    • James Grant, Mike Cantrowitz, Kyle Bass, Stephanie Pomboy, Ivy Zelman, Nick Jerley, Amy Nixon, Michael Lieberwitz, and Rick Rule will discuss various topics including interest rates, the global economy, inflation, housing market, bond market, natural resource investing, commodity plays, and the energy sector.
    • The video discusses the opportunity and bright future of nuclear investing, with various advisors joining the lineup for a power-packed faculty.
    • Register for the Wealthion conference to get a discounted price, and if you’ve attended before, check your email for an additional discount code; feedback on the format and suggestions for improvement are welcome.

Who Just Bet On Market CRASH? | Bob Moriarty

Liberty and Finance

The rich are preparing for a market crash and individuals should invest in precious metals as insurance against financial chaos.

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • “In 1929 the rich guys knew something bad was going to happen. The guy in the street didn’t have a chance. Today. The rich guys still know something’s going to happen but guides on the street do have the advantage they’ve got access to more information that we’ve ever had in history.”
  • Bob Moriarty believes that the crash has already started or is in its second leg, suggesting a bearish outlook on the stock market.
  • Silver’s price increased by 150% in six months, highlighting the potential for significant gains during market downturns.
  • “The Chinese market in general is a total disaster. It’s all fraud and how will that impact the U.S I mean it is a Chinese company but obviously the financial system is very interconnected.”
  • The FED’s pumping of money into the system will eventually lead to the economy being blown up, resulting in hyperinflation.
  • Moriarty predicts a market crash in the September-October region, suggesting that the best time to buy resource stocks will be during that period.
  • “The crash has started.” – Bob Moriarty’s previous claim about the stock market crash starting after posting a video in December 2021 adds credibility to his insights on market trends.
  • “Gold is good money and we will go back to a gold standard, not because anybody wants to, but because we have to.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The rich are preparing for a market crash, with Bob Moriarty discussing the Evergrande bankruptcy, Michael Burry’s bets against the S&P 500, and the upcoming BRICS meeting, suggesting that the crash has already begun and referencing Burry’s prediction of the 2008 crash.
    • The rich know something bad is going to happen, but regular people have access to more information than ever before, and in this video, they discuss a special offer on silver buffalo rounds.
    • Bob Moriarty discusses the current state of the stock market, including the Evergrande bankruptcy in China, Michael Burry’s bets against the S&P 500, and the upcoming BRICS meeting, noting that he believes the crash has already begun and referencing Burry’s prediction of the 2008 crash.
    • Michael Murray bet 1.6 billion dollars on a market crash in June, and although he would have lost money in July, the market has since gone down, making it a good idea to be on the same side as him.
  • 03:41 The stock market is in a downturn, presenting opportunities for investors, while China’s economic troubles could impact the US market, and the upcoming BRICS meeting is significant for gold prices and potential new members.
    • The stock market is currently in its second leg of a downturn, with the first drop occurring in 2021, and the speaker emphasizes that market crashes present great opportunities for investors.
    • China’s economy is a house of cards, with the bankruptcy of its second largest property developer and the interconnectedness of the financial system, leading to potential impacts on the US market.
    • The upcoming BRICS meeting is not expected to have an immediate impact on gold prices, but the number of countries interested in joining BRICS is important.
  • 08:14 There will be both deflation and hyperinflation due to the Federal Reserve pumping money into the system, leading to an economic collapse and a return to quantitative easing; stock up on food now and invest in precious metals as insurance against financial chaos; Bob Moriarty predicts a market crash in September or October and advises buying resource stocks in October.
    • There will be both deflation and hyperinflation due to the Federal Reserve pumping money into the system, causing a decrease in prices initially, but eventually leading to an economic collapse and a return to quantitative easing, resulting in hyperinflation.
    • Stock up on food now because there are indications of a global food shortage and potential attacks on food companies, and it doesn’t matter if you consume it now or later; also, investing in precious metals is seen as an insurance policy against financial chaos.
    • Bob Moriarty predicts that the silver to gold ratio could reach 121 and advises buying resource stocks in October, as he believes a market crash will occur in September or October.
  • 12:19 Regular individuals now have access to more information than ever before to make informed decisions, and wealthy individuals like Ray Dalio, Elon Musk, and Warren Buffett have made moves indicating their belief in an impending market crash, while the idea that Comex is fraudulent is itself a fraud perpetuated by those who profit from telling people what they want to hear.
    • People often doubt predictions of market crashes because they rarely come true, as stated by a commenter on the video.
    • Moriarty predicts a market crash based on sentiment indicators and points out that wealthy individuals like Ray Dalio, Elon Musk, and Warren Buffett have made moves indicating their belief in an impending downturn, but emphasizes that regular individuals now have access to more information than ever before to make informed decisions.
    • Trade commodities using the daily sentiment indicator to ignore external factors and make profitable decisions based on sentiment.
    • Comex does not have the authority to fix prices for precious metals, as it is a commodities exchange where buyers and sellers determine the price, and the idea that Comex is fraudulent is itself a fraud perpetuated by those who profit from telling people what they want to hear.
  • 17:53 Gold and silver are good investments, and going against the herd and ignoring experts can lead to financial success, as the speaker believes in the eventual return to a gold standard.
    • Is it possible for an honest politician to be elected in the United States, or is the likelihood close to zero due to the preference for skilled liars?
    • Gold is a commodity, not money, and people should go against the herd and ignore experts and gurus to make money in investing.
    • Gold and silver are good investments, and the speaker believes that we will eventually return to a gold standard.
  • 22:21 The speaker talks about their dog and chickens coexisting peacefully, despite the dog’s temptation to eat them, and their decision to plant grapes and make wine with the dog’s assistance.
    • Moriarty discusses how his dog and chickens have learned to live peacefully together, but the dog is tempted by the idea of eating the chickens and rabbits, which the speaker discourages.
    • He discusses their decision to plant grapes on their land and their experience of making wine with the help of a dog.
  • 25:34 Bob Moriarty predicts bad times ahead but offers affordable finance books to help people protect themselves, while Miles Franklin is a trusted bullion dealer.
    • Bob Moriarty discusses his work as an author and predicts that bad times are coming, but offers affordable finance books that can help people protect themselves.

The Gold Silver ratio defies rising rates - what's happening?

The Market Sniper

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • The bond market is showing signs of gaining momentum, with the 30-year yield potentially reaching the 4.8 level, indicating a bullish trend.
  • A 40-year bull market is now in a debt deflation stage, causing concern for the debt markets and the banks.
  • “That is when the pain is about to hit, that is when the headlines are about to be written with whatever narrative they’ve conjured up this time in their wicked little witches…It’s witchcraft.” – The speaker uses vivid language to suggest that the upcoming market movement will bring significant consequences and media attention, implying a sense of manipulation or deception.
  • “There is no value to money in a bank… You may as well get your grubby mitts on it and do something like Precious Metals which will be going to very very shortly.”
  • The Gold Silver ratio is defying rising rates and experiencing a strong rebound, surpassing previous crises such as the subprime, COVID-19, and Asian crises.
  • The gold silver ratio has shown a zigzag pattern, with a marginally higher top, but now it is rolling over after a long period of batting into a critical level of 85.
  • “Silver represents immense value as it has been low for a bit and could be beginning a turnaround to the upside.”
  • “What silver is still money but debt is worth a whole bunch less right now and it’s going to go only one way in our opinion.”
  •  

Transcript:

  • 00:00 The bond markets are turning, with yields reaching their highest levels since 2011, indicating a bear market in yields and a bull market in valuations, while the gold-silver ratio is expected to reach 4.75 in the near future.
    • The bond markets are showing signs of a turning point, with the 30-year yield gaining momentum and potentially reaching the target level of 4.8, while the current market situation is also very tenuous.
    • The current gold-silver ratio is at a new high since the lows of March 2020, and while there may be some upcoming events or news that could cause fluctuations, it is expected to reach 4.75 in the near future.
    • Yields have reached their highest levels since 2011, indicating a bear market in terms of yields and a bull market in terms of valuations.
  • 03:53 The debt markets are in trouble as the 40-year bull market comes to an end, causing rates to rise and impacting pensions, while banks offer low interest rates to encourage savings.
    • Debt markets are in trouble and the extreme events of March 2020 marked the end of a cycle, leading to a significant fall in valuations.
    • The value of government debt is decreasing, causing rates to rise and impacting pensions, while banks are offering low interest rates to encourage people to lock away their money.
    • The debt markets are in a bad state due to a 40-year bull market now being in a debt deflation stage, causing concern for banks and derivatives, and leading to crowded exits and higher yields.
  • 06:54 The gold silver ratio is no longer in favor of debts, so be cautious of debt markets and potential market reversals, and beware of narrative-driven headlines and market manipulation.
    • The trend of the gold silver ratio has changed and is no longer in favor of debts.
    • Stay short on TLT and the yen, be cautious of debt markets and impending market reversals, and beware of potential narrative-driven headlines and market manipulation.
  • 09:02 The current soft landing in the economy is a trap, indicating a potential economic crash, and viewers are advised to short debt and invest in precious metals instead of keeping money in banks due to the devaluation of money and the disarray in the bond market.
    • The speaker warns that the current soft landing in the economy is a trap, as it indicates complacency and a potential economic crash, and advises to short debt as the debt marker has not changed for three years despite claims of a pivot by the FED.
    • The speaker predicts that the stock market will continue to rise due to the devaluation of money until major disinflation occurs, advising viewers to invest in precious metals instead of keeping money in banks, as the bond market is in a state of disarray.
    • The gold-silver ratio is defying rising interest rates and showing a strong rebound, indicating a potential demand-destroying event in the precious metals market.
    • Gold has been disappointing and is currently looking a bit off.
  • 13:10 Despite gold’s recent decline, the gold silver ratio has been declining, indicating that silver is performing better; there may be more fluctuations but not as deep as before, with a potential return to 26 on the silver round, so it’s important to be aware of potential winning situations in the market.
    • The gold silver ratio has been declining, indicating that silver is performing better than gold despite gold’s recent decline.
    • The speaker discusses the complex left shoulder and right shoulder movements in the gold silver ratio, predicting that there will likely be more fluctuations but not as deep as before, with a potential return to 26 on the silver round.
    • Volatility increases uncertainty in the market, so it is important to be aware of potential winning situations.
  • 16:11 The gold silver ratio is showing signs of a potential breakout in silver, but caution is advised as price movements can be unpredictable.
    • The speaker explains that the pattern in the gold silver ratio is complex and will likely continue to fluctuate on a lower time frame.
    • The gold and silver ratio is potentially indicating a turning point, with the possibility of a breakout in silver, and there are also upside opportunities in the market that can be explored through the community.
    • The speaker discusses the performance of the gold silver ratio and warns against chasing after price movements, highlighting the occurrence of a potential inverted Head and Shoulder pattern.
  • 18:39 Silver may be on the rise with trading opportunities, as the Gold Silver ratio shows a positive trend and potential bull pole.
    • Silver has been low for a while, but there may be a potential turnaround to the upside, with opportunities for trading based on predictable price behavior and patterns.
    • The Gold Silver ratio has not reached 26 yet, but there has been a positive trend and a potential bull pole, with no more red poles expected, as discussed in an article on Palisade Radio’s Channel.
  • 20:48 Despite higher interest rates and concerns about debt markets, silver remains valuable and in high demand, potentially leading to a shortage and increased preference for physical silver over money in the bank.
    • There may be a shortage of silver due to high demand and excessive pricing, but silver is still valuable despite higher interest rates.
    • Gold and silver prices may be affected by rising interest rates, and as people become more concerned about the debt markets, they may prefer to have physical silver rather than money in the bank.
    • The speaker discusses updates on gold and silver, opportunities in miners, and provides a link for more information.

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