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Top Three Videos – August 26, 2023

Recessions Are the Best Time to Buy Gold 'With Both Hands': Michael Pento

Commodity Culture

Quick Summary Bullets:

Key insights

  • “Recessions Are the Best Time to Buy Gold ‘With Both Hands'” – Michael Pento suggests that recessions present a prime opportunity to invest in gold.
  • “Recessions are the best time to buy gold ‘with both hands’.”
  • “The faith in Sovereign credit and money supply sound money is being destroyed globally.”
  • “Gold is money. Gold is real and honest money currency money.” – Michael Pento emphasizes the value and stability of gold as a form of currency during recessions.
  • Global economies, including China, the European Union, and the United States, are experiencing recession and disinflation, indicating a waning demand for commodities except gold.
  • “When I see the economy heading for a recession or a depression or a deflation, I want to focus my ownership of gold.”
  • “It’s more than just protection from sanctions… It’s political fiscal and monetary insanity and it’s resembling more and more like that of a Banana Republic.”
  • “What Powell did was a Banana Republic move, bailing out the entire banking system instead of allowing market forces to take effect.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Recessions are the best time to buy gold, as the bond market is collapsing and interest rates are low, leading to a global bond bubble.
    • Recessions are the best time to buy gold, according to Michael Pento, the president and founder of Pento portfolio strategies, who discovered his passion for investing as a child and has since gained over 30 years of professional investment experience.
    • The bond market is currently experiencing a collapse in cycles, with the speaker predicting that it will continue to happen in the near-term future.
    • Interest rates are low and there is a global bond bubble, with Japan being heavily in debt.
  • 03:16 Recessions are the best time to buy gold as inflation and the Federal Reserve’s actions are causing volatility in the bond market and loss of faith in sovereign credit, leading to unpredictable dynamics in the credit markets.
    • Inflation and the Federal Reserve’s actions are causing the bond market to become volatile, leading to a loss of faith in sovereign credit and money supply globally, resulting in unpredictable dynamics in the credit markets.
    • The speaker believes that the current market is in a bear market with temporary bounces, and that true bull markets start after asset bubbles burst and inflation is under control.
  • 05:34 It is a good time to buy gold during recessions due to potential debt defaults and home price resets, as current economic indicators suggest a bear market is likely to begin soon.
    • During recessions, there is a potential for a massive debt default and home prices to reset, making it an opportune time to buy gold.
    • The current economic indicators, such as high home price to income ratio, high market cap of equities, and recessionary indicators, suggest that it is not a conducive time for a bull market to begin, but rather for a bear market to commence in the near future.
  • 08:17 Recessions are the best time to buy gold, as the speaker predicts a coming phase of disinflation, deflation, and recession followed by a commodity super cycle.
    • The inflation deflation economic cycle model helps understand the rate of change of growth and inflation, allowing for the avoidance of recessions and depressions, while also identifying stagflation and intractable inflation as ideal times to invest in commodities.
    • Recessions are the best time to buy gold, as the speaker predicts a coming phase of disinflation, deflation, and recession followed by a commodity super cycle.
    • Gold is considered real and honest money, while base metals and energy are not, as they tend to trade along with the second derivative of growth and inflation.
  • 11:39 During recessions, it’s a good time to buy gold as economies globally are experiencing recession and disinflation, resulting in falling interest rates and making gold a reliable investment.
    • During recessions, it is a good time to buy gold as economies globally, including China, the European Union, and the United States, are experiencing recession and disinflation, leading to a decrease in demand for commodities but not for gold.
    • Gold shines the brightest during recessions when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, resulting in falling nominal rates and falling real rates, making it the best time to buy gold.
    • During recessions, it is advisable to buy gold due to falling real interest rates, while silver is a hybrid metal that can act as both a monetary and industrial metal, but its demand for industrial use may decrease during a depression.
    • During recessions or economic downturns, it is advisable to invest in gold as it is a pure form of money, and while there are rumors of the BRICS nations moving away from the US dollar to a gold-backed currency, the speaker does not incorporate this into their day-to-day trading as it is a long-term trend.
    • The loss of faith in the US Treasury and Central Bank by foreign creditors, along with political and monetary instability, has led to the need for reserves to be placed in something that holds its value, as the dollar is no longer reliable.
  • 16:53 The speaker believes that the current regime’s actions indicate the nation is becoming a Banana Republic and suggests adopting a gold-backed currency during recessions to combat intentional economic and societal problems caused by those in power.
    • The speaker believes that the current regime’s actions, such as arresting the previous regime and embracing free money, indicate that the nation is becoming a Banana Republic, and suggests that countries should adopt their own currency backed by gold during recessions.
    • They are not incompetent but malevolent, intentionally causing problems with the economy and society to maintain power.
  • 18:50 Recessions expose the flaws in the capitalist system, as the Federal Reserve’s actions to bail out banks and guarantee deposits undermine market forces, making a depression necessary to reintroduce gold as a backing currency, but unlikely due to a lack of willingness, despite the unsustainable situation of record debt and increasing consumer debt.
    • During a recession, the Federal Reserve’s actions to bail out banks and guarantee deposits undermines the principles of capitalism and market forces, leading to a troubling situation for the country.
    • A depression is needed to clear out imbalances and reintroduce gold as a backing currency, but it is unlikely to happen due to a lack of willingness.
    • Record debt, soaring servicing costs, and increasing consumer debt indicate an unsustainable situation that will eventually collapse.
  • 22:35 Recessions are the best time to buy gold and invest in the right sectors for the upcoming bull market.
    • Recessions are the best time to buy gold, and Michael Pento offers portfolio strategies to preserve and protect your money during economic downturns.
    • Recessions are the best time to buy gold and invest in the right sectors for the upcoming bull market.

BRICS expansion is a step closer to WW3: We’re moving into very dangerous phase – Willem Middelkoop

Kitco NEWS

Quick Summary Bullets:

Shifts in the international monetary system

  • The BRICS expansion is seen as a step closer to World War III, as we are moving into a very dangerous phase.
  • The expansion of BRICS and their deepening economic ties, including the possibility of a common currency, is seen as a significant step towards a dangerous phase that could lead to World War III.
  • “They’re also done with the IMF and the World Bank…this clearly shows that the system which we built after the second world war…it’s almost 80 years later and that’s very interesting because you might know the book The Fourth turning by Neil Howe how and he explains that every 80 years you have these big shifts in the system.”
  • “We’re witnessing the start of Bretton Woods 3.0, a new monetary system centered around gold and commodities coming from the East.”
  • “The expansion of the BRICS block and the launch of a new currency could potentially lead to a dangerous phase, moving closer to World War III.”
  • “We could move away from a dollar-centered system towards a new phase for the international monetary system where we could use a new common currency, such as the SDR.”
  • Countries like Russia and China have been accumulating large amounts of physical gold, indicating their expectation of a potential shift in the monetary system.

Geopolitical implications and global alliances

  • The talks between the BRICS alliance and Saudi Arabia indicate a potential shift in global alliances, which could have significant geopolitical implications.
  • “The west and the US is confronted by a very powerful Alliance, a potential powerful Alliance.”
  • “Whoever controls Ukraine controls Europe and the Eurasian landmass.” – Geopolitical thinkers have long recognized the strategic importance of Ukraine in global power dynamics.
  • “The US always needed to make sure that there was a lot of trouble on the Eurasian continent to be able to control that part of the world and to make sure that the people living on the Eurasian landmarks can’t live and trade happily with each other.”
  • “I’m not the only one who has warrant for a possible world war. Three scenario we have even had warnings coming from the vaticons from the pope we had warnings coming from the Serbian president because what we’ve seen on the Balkans we’ve had awful Wars on the Balkans.”

Potential challenges to the current global financial system

  • “They are building a very powerful anti-western Alliance and it’s more an anti-dollar alliance…we’re living in the last phase of the international monetary system centered around the dollar.”
  • The BRICS expansion and the potential introduction of a common currency is a longer-term plan that could challenge the dominance of the dollar in the global economy.
  • The BRICS countries are pushing for the idea of not using the dollar for trade and using their own currencies, which could pose a threat to the current global financial system.
  • China’s plan for the BRICS alliance includes the establishment of a new development bank, similar to the IMF, to facilitate bilateral trade and potentially challenge the dominance of the dollar.
  • “The Chinese can become the most powerful and wealthy country on Earth by giving cheap loans to countries in need, just like the US has done with the IMF and World Bank.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The expansion of BRICS and the potential creation of a common currency to rival the dollar is a significant development that challenges the current global financial system, with independent countries uniting against Western double standards and exploitation.
    • BRICS has expanded by inviting six more countries to join, with membership taking effect from January 2024, and further phases of expansion are expected to include more countries.
    • China and Russia welcome new members to the BRICS block and discuss the possibility of creating a common currency to rival the dollar.
    • Global momentum is building for the use of local currencies and alternative financial arrangements, as BRICS leaders explore opportunities to improve the stability and fairness of the global financial architecture, potentially impacting the dollar, the current monetary system, and gold.
    • Saudi Arabia’s response to the BRICS expansion is not surprising as they have a longstanding Petro dollar deal with the US and need to maintain friendly relations with both sides.
    • The acceptance of the BRICS alliance by Saudi Arabia indicates that the Petro dollar deal, where oil was only sold for dollars, is already finished.
    • The BRICS expansion is significant because independent countries are uniting and feeling strong against Western double standards, hypocrisy, and exploitation of Africa and Latin America.
  • 07:55 BRICS expansion and the shift towards non-dollar currencies indicate a move away from the US-dominated monetary system, with the use of the Chinese currency in global trade increasing and the potential for a powerful alliance against the Western system.
    • BRICS expansion and the shift towards non-dollar currencies in international trade indicate a significant move away from the US-dominated international monetary system centered around the dollar.
    • The use of the Chinese currency in global trade is increasing, with the number of deals done in the Chinese currency rising from one percent to five percent, indicating a significant trend towards its strengthening.
    • BRICS expansion is a potential powerful alliance that many countries are considering joining, as they feel united against the Western system and do not have sanctions on Russia, and the idea of a specter dollar does not require an official declaration but is a more subtle development.
    • The end of the Petro Dollar Deal has led to oil being sold in currencies other than the dollar, causing Western countries to reject alternative payment methods and resulting in increased energy bills.
    • The introduction of a common currency by BRICS countries could lead to serious competition for the dollar in the commodity trade, but this is a longer-term plan.
    • Argentina and Egypt, along with other countries, are joining the alliance because they are fed up with the Western double standards and the lack of sanctions applied to the US when it invaded Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • 15:23 BRICS countries are forming a powerful alliance, moving away from the US-dominated financial system, which could lead to a decline in the US dollar and a rally in gold, with potential global implications in the next five to ten years.
    • BRICS countries are moving away from the IMF and World Bank, which were established after World War II by the US, and are now joining forces to create a more honest trading and financial system with a common currency.
    • The US is facing a powerful potential alliance in the form of BRICS, whose economy is already larger than the G7, and with the support of 6 billion people not joining Western sanctions, they are moving towards a new economic system.
    • BRICS countries are pushing for the idea of not using the dollar for trade and using their own currencies, which initially caused a strong reaction in the dollar but later recovered.
    • The speaker predicts a potential decline in the US dollar and a subsequent rally in precious metals, specifically gold, which could reach a value of $2000 or higher, and discusses the significance of the BRICS expansion in January 2024.
    • The rise of the BRICS Alliance and the shift towards a new monetary system centered around gold and commodities, particularly led by China, is a significant development with potential global implications.
    • China and Russia have been planning for a long time to bring changes to the international monetary system, and although it may not happen in the next 12 months, significant changes can be expected in the next five to ten years.
  • 23:50 The BRICS expansion, led by China, is a significant development that could lead to the creation of a commodity-backed currency and challenge the dominance of the US dollar, potentially shifting the global economic balance of power.
    • The BRICS expansion may lead to the creation of a commodity-backed currency, potentially backed by gold and oil, which could reduce exposure to the US dollar and increase payment options.
    • The BRICS expansion includes the establishment of a new development bank headquartered in Shanghai, which allows for easier settlement of international trade and the avoidance of the dollar.
    • The BRICS bank has not been successful in operating in local currencies as originally intended, and previous attempts at collaboration within the BRICS nations have not materialized, raising doubts about their ability to expand and achieve their goals.
    • BRICS expansion is a significant development that should be taken seriously, as it marks the first time since the Soviet Block that multiple countries are united in building a competitive system to the Western system.
    • China’s understanding of using its currency to provide cheap loans to other countries, similar to the US in the 1940s and 50s, could make it the most powerful and wealthy country on Earth, especially with the support of other countries in the BRICS Alliance.
    • China’s leadership in the BRICS alliance, supported by Russia, is a response to the US’s economic war against China, and China’s own economic problems are driving them to strengthen their position in global trade.
  • 36:54 The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is seen as a proxy war with potential implications for global stability, as the US seeks to maintain control and prevent the four billion people living in the Eurasian continent from trading and living happily without the US, leading to tensions and warnings of a potential World War III.
    • The control of Ukraine is crucial for the US in order to control Europe and the Eurasian landmass, and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine is seen as a proxy war with potential implications for global stability.
    • The US has a strong motive to create trouble in the Eurasian continent in order to maintain control and prevent the four billion people living there from trading and living happily without the US.
    • The US needs Ukraine to win the war against Russia in order to maintain its dominance in the current dollar system and to expand its influence, which explains the pressure and military support being sent to Ukraine.
    • The US is engaged in a fight for survival against Russia and China, as they pose a threat to the American dollar system and the US is preparing for war with China due to the potential danger of the BRICS Alliance.
    • The BRICS expansion is a dangerous step towards World War III, as tensions between Russia, China, Europe, and the Western Alliance escalate, with warnings coming from various sources including the Vatican and the Serbian president.
    • The Wagner group, a private army linked to Russia, is involved in tensions and power struggles in Africa, with its leader recently killed in a suspicious plane crash, indicating a potential destabilization in Russia and the world.
  • 46:10 The current problems in China, tensions in the US, and high energy prices are increasing uncertainty and tensions between the Western block and BRICS countries, potentially leading to World War III; there is a possibility of a new international monetary system backed by gold and commodities.
    • The current problems in China, the tense situation in the US with the upcoming elections and legal troubles of former President Trump, and the negative impact of high energy prices on the European industry are increasing uncertainty and tensions, particularly between the Western block and the BRICS countries.
    • The escalation of power and military presence in the South China Sea, including joint naval exercises by the US, UK, Australia, Russia, China, and South Africa, indicates a dangerous phase that could potentially lead to World War III.
    • The speaker discusses the possibility of a de-globalization trend leading to a potential war, and the role of gold in the big reset of the international monetary system.
    • The speaker discusses the possibility of changing the international monetary system towards a new phase using a new common currency, such as the SDR, and restructuring debt and revaluing gold, which could potentially be part of a gold-backed currency in the future.
    • Countries like Russia and China have been accumulating large amounts of physical gold, indicating that they expect something to happen within the monetary system, and there is a possibility that the US could surprise everyone by making the dollar gold backed again, which could pose a risk for China.
    • The speaker discusses the possibility of a new international monetary system backed by gold and commodities, and suggests that there may be intentional suppression of the gold price to allow central banks to accumulate gold.
  • 55:01 Countries like Russia and China, along with the US, are accumulating large amounts of gold, potentially allowing them to create a new kind of OPEC and demand oil payments in gold, which could lead to a revaluation and significant increase in gold prices to $10,000 within the next five to ten years.
    • Countries like Russia and China, including the US, understand the importance of having a large amount of physical gold holdings, with China rumored to have around 20,000 tons, which could potentially allow them to make their currency more influential.
    • BRICS countries could potentially use their gold holdings to create a new kind of OPEC and demand that oil be paid with gold instead of dollars, which poses a significant risk and may impact the price of gold in the future.
    • Gold has not been moving despite countries accumulating it for the past 10 to 15 years, but now that they may have enough, there is a possibility of a revaluation and a strong move for gold and silver in the next five to ten years.
    • Gold has historically revalued and increased in value significantly, and based on this pattern, it is expected that gold will reach $10,000 within the next five to ten years.
    • Gold prices have the potential to reach $10,000 to $15,000 per ounce in the future, as history has shown that gold is often revalued to support the financial system and benefit central bank balance sheets.
  • 01:01:32 Diversifying wealth across different assets, including cash, Bitcoin, gold, and a diversified portfolio, provides protection against geopolitical risk and is a good strategy, while the speaker also highlights the dangers of BRICS expansion potentially leading to World War III.
    • The speaker’s personal portfolio consists of 25% precious metals, 25% equities, 25% real estate, and 25% cash/Bitcoin, with adjustments made over time.
    • Diversifying wealth across different assets, including cash, Bitcoin, gold, and a diversified portfolio, provides protection against geopolitical risk and is a good strategy for the speaker.
    • Gold is the nucleus of physical commodities, while Bitcoin is the nucleus of the world of digital assets.
    • Investing in silver is a great idea because it has a high risk-reward ratio, is undervalued, and has less risk of confiscation compared to gold.
    • The speaker discusses the dangers of the BRICS expansion and its potential to lead to World War III.

$60 Trillion Financial System on the Brink as This Entire Sector Comes Unraveled

Steven Van Metre

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • A 60 trillion dollar Financial system is on the brink as this entire sector comes unraveled, posing a huge contagion risk to the global financial system.
  • The Chinese property sector is on the brink of dragging down the entire Chinese financial system and potentially impacting the global economy.
  • Developers in China are facing a massive 62 trillion Yuan or eight and a half trillion US dollar gap to meet their financial obligations, highlighting the potential instability of the country’s real estate market.
  • Investor confidence in China is declining, with both local residents and foreign investors looking to move their money out of the country.
  • The worsening cash crunch of Country Garden is shaking Chinese markets, indicating a potentially significant issue.
  • The global dollar shortage may be larger than anticipated, as Country Garden is predicted to potentially miss a payment on a dollar-denominated bond.
  • The financial sector in China is facing significant problems, with the risk of missing payments and a dangerous dance between shadow banks and traditional banks.
  • The entire Chinese financial system is tightly intertwined with the real estate sector, which has significant implications for the global economy.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 China’s $60 trillion financial system is at risk of unraveling due to the crisis in the real estate sector, with potential global economic impact, as evidenced by China’s desperate move to ease purchase rules in an attempt to boost their economy.
    • A $60 trillion financial system is at risk of unraveling, with a potential contagion that could spread rapidly through the global financial system, as evidenced by China’s desperate move to ease purchase rules in an attempt to boost their economy.
    • The Chinese property sector is at risk of dragging down the entire Chinese financial system and potentially impacting the global economy as the country proposes scrapping a rule that disqualifies people with previous mortgages from being considered first-time homebuyers, which could lead to a turnaround in the real estate sector but may be too late.
    • China’s real estate sector is in crisis, posing a threat to the country’s $60 trillion financial system due to failed policies, declining property prices, over-leveraged banks, and unpaid investors.
  • 03:13 If China’s attempts to stimulate the housing market fail, it suggests that the financial system is on the verge of collapse, as evidenced by relaxed rules requiring an 80% down payment for second homes in Beijing being reduced to 40% in a desperate bid to boost property sales.
    • If the Chinese government’s desperate policies to stimulate the housing market fail, it indicates that the financial system is already on the brink of collapse.
    • Buyers in Beijing are required to make an 80% down payment for a second home, causing suppressed demand, but now the rules have been relaxed to 40% in an act of desperation to get people to buy property due to developers facing a massive financial gap.
  • 05:00 China’s financial system is on the brink of collapse as investor confidence in Chinese shares falls, leading to record sell-offs and a lack of new money to support the market, potentially resulting in lower stock prices.
    • China’s financial system is on the brink of collapse as the stock market shows a tepid response to the government’s attempts to revive it.
    • Investor confidence in Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong is falling, leading to record sell-offs by overseas funds and a desire for people to get their money out of China.
    • The speaker discusses how a pro trader hacked the financial system by predicting a market reaction in China, and if the data is correct, the machines will sell even more, resulting in potential gains for investors.
    • Chinese stocks are likely to head lower due to a lack of new money being created to support the market, resulting in a change in trend.
  • 08:35 Country Garden’s delay in bond payments raises concerns about its cash crunch, potential impact on Chinese markets, and reveals a potential global dollar shortage.
    • Country Garden has delayed the bond extension deadline, causing investors to question the real reason behind this decision.
    • The country’s former largest builder is pushing back its deadline for payment, causing concerns about its worsening cash crunch and potential impact on Chinese markets.
    • Country Garden may not have the money to make upcoming bond payments, and if bondholders don’t agree to extensions, they likely won’t get paid, revealing a potential global dollar shortage.
  • 10:55 The troubled trust sector’s losses and Beijing’s attempts to revive the property market are causing chaos in the Chinese financial sector, leading to potential defaults and a global economic concern, impacting global markets and consumer prices, while the dollar is predicted to initially decrease in value before eventually rising.
    • The downstream effects of the troubled trust sector’s 38 billion in losses, combined with Beijing’s desperate attempts to revive the property market, are causing pandemonium in the financial sector as Country Garden is on the verge of missing payments, leading to a dangerous dance between shadow banks and traditional banks that will result in a messy situation in the second half of the year.
    • The entire Chinese financial system is heavily dependent on the real estate sector, and as China’s property market worsens, it is likely to lead to more defaults and a global economic concern.
    • Chinese economic weakness and falling producer prices are likely to impact global markets, leading to deflated prices for consumers worldwide, while China’s disappointing rebound is negatively affecting global growth and sentiment.
    • The speaker predicts that the dollar will initially decrease in value before eventually rising, and supports this claim with the current General activity diffusion index.
  • 14:42 The strength of the US dollar is linked to the manufacturing sector, and with declining consumer retail prices, the Consumer Price Index is expected to decrease despite Central Bankers’ beliefs.
    • The strength of the US dollar is closely tied to the performance of the manufacturing sector, with the dollar strengthening during periods of increased global trade and weakening during slowdowns, as evidenced by the relationship between the dollar and the manufacturing sector before, during, and after the global financial crisis.
    • U.S. consumer retail prices have declined for the first time since the early days of the pandemic, and import prices lead consumer prices, suggesting that the Consumer Price Index is likely to go down in the future despite the belief of Central Bankers.
  • 16:46 The Federal Reserve Chairman’s uncertainty and hesitation to raise interest rates suggests concerns about the economy and potential financial system instability, as decreased consumer spending impacts the financial system.
    • The speaker suggests that there is uncertainty and a shift in tone from the Federal Reserve Chairman, indicating a possible hesitation to raise interest rates further due to concerns about the economy and potential financial system instability.
    • The speaker explains that when consumers have less money to spend, demand decreases, which affects the financial system.
  • 18:58 Banks tightening lending standards and the uncertainty surrounding interest rates are causing a slowdown in the financial system, potentially leading to a recession or financial crisis once pandemic money runs out.
    • Banks tightening lending standards leads to decreased demand and inflation, causing the Consumer Price Index to come down, and the Federal Reserve’s uncertainty about interest rates and the inverted yield curve is causing a slowdown in the financial system.
    • When banks tighten financial conditions, borrowers can’t get as much money, leading to a recession or financial crisis once pandemic money runs out, which is estimated to happen by the end of the third quarter.

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