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Top Three Videos – February 29, 2024

Dave Skarica: Has Oil Bottomed? (February 27, 2024)

StockChartoftheDay...

Summary

 
Oil prices have likely bottomed and will be moving higher, with potential factors such as seasonal trade, demand, and political decisions affecting the market.
 
 
  • Oil had conflicting backdrops with oversupply and seasonal trade affecting its price.
  • The 200 day moving average is a key resistance level for oil prices, indicating a potential rebound if it breaks.
  • The depletion of the strategic petroleum reserve is a result of trying to keep oil prices down and influence the electorate, as well as to attack Russia’s main source of revenue.
  • Trump’s proposal to replenish oil reserves in 2020 was rejected by Congress, despite oil prices going negative.
  • Oil has probably bottomed and will be moving higher, set up for a good oil rally.
  • After the election, there will be a replenishing of the Strategic oil Reserve, regardless of who the president is, leading to potential impact on oil prices.

Chris Vermeulen: 'Big Rally' Could Last Until May, Then Markets Turn 'Ugly' (Feb. 20, 2024)...

David Lin...

Summary

 

The stock market may be reaching a major top, potentially leading to a significant correction, and investors should consider rotating safely in and out of different asset classes to protect their investments.

 

Market Predictions and Potential Corrections

 
  • “I think we could see big rally followed by a massive selloff that could Kickstart a bare Market um that could bleed over into 2025.”
  • The S&P and other indices have reached all-time highs, but a correction may still be on the horizon.
  • The stock market hitting new all-time highs could be the final straw that kicks the markets into a major top, leading to a potential major correction later this year.
  • The pattern of small caps rallying before a market crash is repeating, indicating a potential upcoming correction.
  • Long-term investing signals are still bullish, indicating potential for a continued rally.
  • “I believe we’re going to be very similar to the 2000 2001 Market top where this could actually take several years to slowly unwind.”
  • The VIX Index and stock market indices typically don’t move in the same direction for an extended period of time, suggesting a potential upcoming market downturn.
     

Market Psychology and Investor Behavior

 
  • When people start bailing and betting against the market, that’s when it takes off.
  • “We keep getting these little waves of small pullbacks that scare enough people out of the market that it resets and it keeps going.”
  • Rising vix and Rising stock market is telling us that people are getting more and more nervous as it goes higher and higher, buying more and more leveraged inverse ETFs or put options until they hit the breaking point.
  • Fighting the trend will eventually lead to giving all your money back, regardless of how long you’ve been in the market.
     

Investment Strategies and Asset Rotation

 
  • Chris Vermeulen suggests rotating safely in and out of different asset classes like index, bonds, currency, and treasury notes, while also aggressively trading in new super cycles like gold and silver.
  • The US dollar is expected to skyrocket up to 116 or even 120, making it a very strong move.
  • “It’s not always about how much money you can make, it’s about how much you can make safely and retain before getting hit.”

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle: Why Central Banks Have Been Stockpiling Gold (February. 24, 2024)...

David Lin...

Summary

 

Central banks and countries are stockpiling gold as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, unsustainable debt levels, and the potential for “D dollarization” in the future.

 

  • Central banks have been stockpiling gold as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
  • The market’s reaction to rate cuts is usually underwhelming, despite being celebrated, and the economy may not be as strong as it seems.
  • Unsustainable debt levels in the United States are driving the need for gold stockpiling.
  • The sanctions against Russia in 2022 led to a realization that 400 billion can be wiped out with the stroke of a pen, prompting countries to diversify their reserves with gold.
  • The possibility of “D dollarization” is a big topic, suggesting that central banks may be stockpiling gold in preparation for this potential shift.
  • The leading economic indicator is now down 20 months in a row, suggesting a potential recession.
  • “My thing is gold for stability, Bitcoin for convexity, and therefore I think why not own both monetary assets.”
 

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