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Top Three Videos – January 28, 2024

Alasdair Macleod: This Is Serious! 2024 Avalanche To Get Out Of Credit And Into Gold (January 27, 2024)

Summary

 

The current credit-based economy and increasing debt levels in the US are raising concerns about the potential collapse of the banking system, leading to a shift towards gold as a long-term investment and a means of gaining power and credibility for individuals.

 

Economic instability and potential crisis

 
  • The increasing debt level and continuous printing of money by the US raises concerns about how long confidence in the economy can be retained.
  • Central banks are dumping dollars for gold bullion, recognizing the risk of the current credit-based economy.
  • The gold currency relationship could actually switch very sharply this year, leading to a significant impact on the market.
  • The slightest disturbance in the credit markets could lead to an absolute avalanche of getting out of credit, primarily by foreigners, leading to a potential crisis.
  • The decision to abandon the gold standard in 1971 was a result of the lack of confidence in the amount of gold backing the printed currency, leading to a crisis.
  • Governments are expected to print more credit to rescue failing businesses, leading to potential collapse of the banking system.
  • The credit system is showing signs of systemic difficulties, and it’s almost impossible to imagine how it would be saved without stealing security entitlements from individuals to save banks and counterparties in the derivatives markets.
  • “In fact we are about to witness price action distortions in the market more so than we have ever done before and with that many thousands of people are going to be murdered to make certain that it happens.”
     

Gold as a long-term investment and currency alternative

 
  • The price of gold has risen 70% in the last 5 years, making it a strong long-term investment compared to other assets.
  • “Becoming your own Central Bank… They buy gold for power, influence, and to give their currency some credibility.” – Alasdair Macleod

Doomberg vs Adam Rozencwajg: Debate On "Peak Cheap Oil": Fact Or Overblown Fear? (Jan. 25, 2024)...

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 

The era of abundant cheap energy is coming to an end, leading to a potential shift in global oil market dynamics and the possibility of $200 oil in the next five years.

 

Future Energy Market Dynamics

 
  • “The question when looking out at the next 50 years is the threat of peak cheap oil fact or overblown fear.”
  • The era of abundant cheap energy that we’ve enjoyed for the last 15 years is not going to be repeated in the next 15 or 20 years, leading to a very tight market.
  • The current abundance of oil from shale has kept prices weak, but a potential production peak and decline could shift market dynamics in favor of OPEC, leading to a new regime of pricing power.
  • The long Arc of the human endeavor is to grind out more primary energy every year, with the prediction that by 2040, we will be producing meaningfully more oil than we are today.
  • “I think there’s a period of time where prices move a lot higher and investors are going to be rewarded amply and richly for being involved in energy stock and particularly oil stocks.”
  • “I will say I think $200 oil in the next five years is totally possible and I just don’t think that would Mark Peak cheap oil.”
  • There are potential low barrier changes in the global oil market that could bridge the gap for the next five to 10 years, despite unexpected slowdowns in the Shale patch.
  • The only energy source with superior energetics is nuclear power, according to Adam, making it the most viable option for the future.
  • Energy is the economy, there’s nothing that we do in our world that doesn’t use energy to transform some material from one form to another or move.
     

Global Oil Production Landscape

 
  • The unexpected surge in United States oil production from 4.5 million barrels to 13 million barrels challenges the traditional concept of peak oil and peak cheap oil, leading to a shift in the global oil production landscape.
  • Peak cheap oil was nowhere in sight on the larger picture that mattered to the global economy, with oil production doubling since the US conventional oil production peaked in 1970.
  • The definition of oil is broad and evolving as refineries become more flexible and can adapt to different feed stocks, converging conventional and shale oil over time.
  • “The biggest single event that’s happened to Global energy markets in the last arguably 100 years has been the unexpected introduction of nearly 13 million barrels a day of straight crude.”
  • “I think conversations like this where people respect each other and politely articulate their views are far too rare in the clickbait.” – Doomberg
     

Impact of Unexpected Oil Production Surges

 
  • “We have tools and analyses that I don’t think anyone else has…we have developed our own neural networks talked about AI.”

Peter St. Onge: Who's Taking Your Money (Jan.26 2024)...

Human Action Podcast...

Summary

 

The FED’s subsidizing of cheap housing and involvement in buying mortgage-backed securities has unintentionally contributed to gentrification, rising housing prices, and potential economic crisis.

 

  • The FED’s subsidizing of cheap housing aimed at poor people unintentionally gentrified neighborhoods and priced out long-standing communities.
  • The FED’s involvement in buying up mortgage-backed securities during the 2008 crisis and again during COVID has contributed to the continuous rise in housing prices.
  • The intentional destruction of communities should not be politicized, it’s objectively a horrible thing to do.
  • The FED lost 114 billion last year, making it the third largest bankruptcy in US history after Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual in 2008.
  • The FED has a history of operating with illegal actions and conspiracies, reminiscent of the George W. Bush Administration’s approach to torture.
  • The Fed found a way around the law by creating maen lane llc’s to buy assets, allowing them to technically not violate the rules.
  • The looming recession and ballooning deficit could have significant implications for the fiscal outlook and interest rates.
  • The only way out of the debt crisis is a massive recession, leading to the FED yanking rates back down to zero and keeping them there forever and a half.
  • The idea that the dollar can never collapse because of CIA intervention is “sheer stupidity” and “malign neglect.”
 

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