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Top Three Videos – January 5, 2024

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Kevin Muir: Fiscal Spending Is Having A FAR Bigger Impact Than Investors Realize (January 3, 2024)

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 
 

Fiscal stimulus will continue to have a significant impact on the economy, leading to increased inflation and shifting the playbook from monetary dominance to fiscal dominance.

 

Impact of fiscal stimulus on economic recovery

 
  • Fiscal spending is having a far bigger impact than investors realize, with a lot of money from the inflation reduction act still yet to be spent.
  • Monetary stimulus doesn’t work as well as we think it does, and fiscal stimulus has proven to be more effective in driving economic recovery.
  • 100% we’re going to see continued rise in fiscal spending.
  • The reliance solely on private sector credit creation to affect the business cycle eventually led to the great financial crisis.
  • “I’m a big believer in trading the market that you have, not the market you want.”
  • “I could see a situation where for the next decade we aage three 4% really easily.”
  • The bond market was a disaster waiting to happen, and now we’re at a point where the term premium is actually positive.
  • Kevin Muir believes that fiscal stimulus will continue and lead to increased inflation, shifting the playbook from monetary dominance to fiscal dominance.
  • The government can fill an economic hole way better than anyone imagined, impacting the economy significantly.
  • “Never before have I felt so strongly that you should look at not being in the market cap big-name stocks and you should really think about when if you’re kind of benchmarked to the S&P 500 you should be really aware of what you own and how much risk you’re taking in those seven names.”
     

Geopolitical factors influencing market trends

 
  • Central banks’ fiscal spending is having a far bigger impact on gold than interest rates and real interest rates.
  • The real driving force of this bull market is the Bank of China buying gold because they have to, it’s much more a geopolitical factor.
  • “I’ve been saying for a while that I think we’re going to have a $1,000 up week in gold and I know that sounds ridiculous but if you think about it it’s not as crazy as it sounds.”
     

Government control and influence in technology sector

 
  • The government controls technology more than we think, with only seven big routers in the whole world that all the internet traffic goes through.

2024: A Year We Will Never Forget (Jan. 1, 2024)...

Maverick of Wall Street...

Summary

 
 

2024 is predicted to be a year of significant economic and geopolitical events, with potential scenarios including reinflation, recession, and global conflicts, all of which will be heavily influenced by the actions of the Federal Reserve.

 

Economic Predictions and Risks

 
  • 2023 was full of surprises, including AI Mania, collapse of regional and global banks, changes in fed policy, and geopolitical events, but 2024 is predicted to be the year to remember.
  • Corporate profits went negative, but big cap technology stocks managed to return to profitability by cutting costs aggressively, which was among the unexpected events in 2023.
  • It’s important to understand and position portfolios for the three scenarios of soft landing, reinflation risk, and recession risk in 2024.
  • The possibility of a reinflation phenomenon in the economy due to rate cuts by the FED could lead to volatility in energy prices and potentially higher prices at the pump.
  • The potential currency war between central banks, with the Fed cutting rates leading to a devalued dollar and higher commodity prices, could have significant global economic implications.
  • The Federal Reserve’s shift from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening could lead to a financial disaster.
  • The response by the FED is what really matters in determining whether we go into a recession or reinflation or a soft landing.
  • The increase of a systemic risk in the economy because rates are already relatively high as we speak you add more to that you’re going to increase the risk of something blowing up.
  • The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma of either cutting rates and risking reinflation, or holding rates and increasing recession risk, making it impossible to please the White House.
     

Geopolitical Tensions and Conflicts

 
  • The potential scenario of Netanyahu getting out of control and forcing Biden into a conflict poses a serious risk for the White House as they head into the election season.
  • The deployment of Iranian warships into the Red Sea is bringing us closer to a potential escalation and conflict with Iran.

The Aaron Rodgers vs Kimmel Feud Over Epstein's List (Jan.3, 2024)...

Awaken with JP...

Summary

 
 

The Aaron Rodgers vs Kimmel feud over Epstein’s list has sparked controversy and conspiracy theories, but it has been blown out of proportion.

 

  • The Aaron Rodgers vs Kimmel feud over Epstein’s list has been blown way out of proportion.
  • “Your reckless words have put my family in danger keep it up and we will debate the facts further in court at Aaron Rogers 12 game set match” – Aaron Rodgers
  • Aaron Rodgers’ mention of Epstein’s list and Kimmel’s roast sparked controversy and conspiracy theories among fans and critics alike.
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