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Top Three Videos – March 15, 2024

Alf Peccatiello: Don't Fool Yourself: Higher Rates WILL Bring Pain To The Credit Markets (March 12, 2024)

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 

Higher interest rates may bring pain to the credit markets and potentially lead to economic trouble, with potential implications for job creation, stock and bond prices, and global economies.

 

 

Impact of higher interest rates on the job market and economy

 
  • Higher rates will bring pain to the credit markets.
  • The overleveraged consumer and overleveraged corporations may buckle under higher interest rates, potentially bringing economic growth down.
  • The danger zone may lead to companies stopping hiring and starting layoffs.
  • The surge in warn act notices indicates companies are tipping their hands and implementing hiring freezes, a potential early indicator of economic trouble.
  • The job market is expected to weaken with interest rates above 4.5% for more than a year, leading to a decline in job creation and wage growth.
  • The chart shows that the job market weakens quickly once the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, as seen in all cases of recession since the 80s.
  • The pattern of ill curve inversion, weakening job market, and recession has been consistent in the last five recessions.
  • Potential macro volatility event might arise sooner in global economies following the FED’s hiking cycle, as they are not equipped as well as the US to handle higher interest rates.
     

Market behavior and potential risks

 
  • Stocks have roared back to record highs and bonds have risen solidly, but are we in danger of a painful selloff due to unsustainable price levels?
  • “Higher for longer is almost a 30% probability scenario by the end of the year and now 30% is not a negligible scenario.”
  • Euphoria and animal spirits run loose in the market, similar to what happened in 2007 and early 2000 with interest rates at 5% and late in the cycle.
  • Animal Spirits play a big role in the market, whether you’re a trader or an investor.
  • The combination of fiscal and monetary demographics will make inflation and growth much more volatile in the next decade, impacting standard portfolios.
     

Investment strategies and considerations

 
  • Bitcoin’s potential growth: Even if Bitcoin can cover half the ground of gold, it can go to 10% under this valuation framework, leaving room for prices to grow over time.
  • “Be aggressive when people are fearful” – consider moving into more risky assets at the right price when others are greedy.
  • Verbal communication and presentation skills are the best non-money related investment for personal and professional growth.

Peter Krauth: Inflation Will Last A Decade More; This Is Fed's Ultimate Weapon (March. 13, 2023)...

The Daily Gold...

Summary

 

Inflation is expected to last for a decade, prompting central banks to raise their target and leading to a long-term precious metals bull market.

 

Long-term impact of inflation on markets and investments

 
  • Inflation is likely to last for a decade, prompting central banks to raise their target from 2% to a more realistic 3% as a long-term goal.
  • Successful investors believe that the market is not always right and efficient, challenging the notion of market efficiency.
  • A crash of 20-30% in the broad stock markets is something investors need to be prepared for.
  • Inflation is being driven by high inputs such as salaries, raw commodities, and energy prices, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to change anytime soon.
  • Inflation expected to last a decade more, Fed’s ultimate weapon.
  • The idea of transitory inflation may not hold true, as historical patterns show that supply chain issues can lead to sustained high prices for commodities.
     

Precious metals as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation

 
  • The gold-silver ratio is at a high of 89, indicating potential for silver to catch up and outpace gold in bull markets.
  • The disconnect between high real rates and resilient gold prices is unprecedented and has been driven by global central banks and sovereign investors seeking more exposure to gold.
  • There is a scarcity of physical silver in the market, with premiums historically at 12-15% but currently at 30-40%.
  • “The dollar is going to continue dying. It’s a slow death. It’s a death by a Thousand Cuts.”
  • “I absolutely have believe that we’re in a long-term precious metals bull market and I think by de facto gold and silver are going to become more and more currencies.”

Luke Gromen: The Secrets of Global Finance Explained (March 13, 2024)...

Robert Breedlove...

Summary

 

The global financial system is at risk of collapse due to peak cheap oil production, unsustainable sovereign debt levels, and the potential shift away from US treasuries as a reserve asset, leading to the need for a restructuring of the global monetary system towards reserving gold and settling energy in gold to prevent economic collapse.

 

Global Financial System Vulnerabilities

 
  • The shift away from debt as a reserve asset into things that preserve purchasing power in energy terms could lead to the crumble of the financial system.
  • If oil goes to $1,000 a barrel, billions of people will starve to death as global trade collapses.
  • The shift from gold to oil as a monetary standard had significant consequences, including the backing of dollar debt and triggering inflation and crises.
  • Monetizing a productive commodity on the scale of today’s debt levels would be catastrophic for the real productive part of society.
  • Peak cheap oil leads to higher oil prices, making it unsustainable for countries to hold sovereign debt as their reserve asset, potentially leading to a collapse of the global economy.
  • The debt to GDP levels in developed markets historically have been resolved through sustained high inflation, hyperinflation, or restructuring, presenting a significant challenge for the current global financial system.
  • The paradox of needing higher energy supplies, which require higher inflation, but higher inflation undercuts the debt we’re trying to support.
  • The US running up debt on unproductive things like wars and not seeing any real return is a major issue in global finance.
  • The system structure effectively changes so that gold replaces treasuries as Global Reserve asset, destabilizing the current interests.
  • The incentive to settle oil on a net basis in gold means the price of gold is going to go up, making it a more valuable asset over time.
     

Geopolitical Impacts of Energy and Monetary Standards

 
  • The decision to go off the gold standard was influenced by the understanding that it would lead to a significant rise in the price of oil, benefiting oil producers in friendlier parts of the world.
  • Russia’s gold stack, low external dollar debt, and position as a major energy exporter could impact ongoing geopolitical tensions with the US.

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