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Top Three Videos – March 23, 2024

Rick Rule: Silver Stock Ranking and Where I See Silver Going (March 21, 2024)

Natural Resource Stocks...

Summary

 

Investing in silver stocks has the potential for truly lifechanging gains, especially as the market share of precious metals returns to mean and the purchasing power of the US dollar diminishes.

 

Silver Stock Potential and Historical Performance

 
  • The upside in silver stocks historically has been truly lifechanging, with examples of stocks increasing from dimes to $65 and from 50 cents to $45 in just a few years.
  • If the market share of precious metals returns to mean, it means that demand for the stuff quadruples.
  • “You buy these things not for the certain returns on Capital employed but rather for the possibility of truly lifechanging gains.”
  • The fact that silver is hated means the easy money is made when the investment goes from hated to merely un-hated.
  • Recognizing his psychological aberration, Rule acknowledges the need to guard himself against it, contrasting with most people who require price action to justify their narrative.
  • Buying between the three best and the five best producers in any sector gives the best risk-adjusted rate of return.
  • Rick Rule’s ranking system for silver stocks is extremely harsh, with only nine one rankings given out in 35 years.
  • The stock now sells for 40% of what it sold for before, reflecting the company’s sins in the market, but they have progressed and are focusing on selling off marginal assets to fix the balance sheet.
     

Economic Factors and Market Realization

 
  • The alleged cost of living index doesn’t include the cost of tax, which is the biggest household expense for most Americans.
  • 🧠
    The delay in market reaction to inflation: “It took five years for inflation to bite them before they understood the deterioration of the purchasing power of their wages and savings.”
  • 💰
    “You’re losing almost 3% of your purchasing power a year every year for 10 years.”
  • The upcoming realization by all holders of US Dollars, including American holders, that the diminishment of their purchasing power relative to the interest they receive in US Treasury is negative, will lead to a real move in the gold price.

David Skarica: The Federal Debt Tsunami is Coming to Crush the Markets this Year (March. 22, 2023)...

Pallisades Gold Radio...

Summary

 
 

The massive amount of government debt coming due, combined with potential high inflation and interest rates, could lead to a significant impact on the stock market and potential market downturns.

 

 

Market Impact of Government Debt

 
  • We have seen gold prices break out even though we have not even seen the start or as of now doesn’t look like we’re even near the start of the FED loosening.
  • The massive amount of government debt coming due in the next few months, combined with a decrease in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, could create a supply shock in the market and push interest rates higher.
  • The markets are anticipating a scenario where the debt load is too much and interest rates may need to stay high due to inflation, leading to a potential crash.
  • The massive amount of new debt issuance could flood the market with government bonds, potentially leading to a significant impact on the stock market.
  • The Federal Debt Tsunami is coming to crush the markets this year, with potential consequences for consumer debt and interest rates.
  • The Dow Theory has accurately predicted every bear market going back to 1987, making it an important indicator to watch for potential market downturns.
  • Monetization of debt could lead to an initial bust in the stock market, but real assets like gold and commodities could see price increases.
  • George Soros made one or two percent in 2008 because he hedged so heavily, showing the importance of being prepared for market downturns.
     

Potential Hyperinflation and Market Downturns

 
  • The US debt to GDP ratio has doubled to over 120%, signaling a potential sovereign debt crisis in the future.
  • Even during the late 70s when rates were double digits, the debt to GDP was only 30 or 40%, so the current high debt levels are a cause for concern.
  • The US hasn’t really lost control like other countries in hyperinflation, but when the 12 to 17 trillion hits this summer and fall, they may start to lose control.
  • The government’s ability to print money and borrow from itself to pay interest is a controversial and potentially hyperinflationary practice.
  • “If we’re getting into very high inflation, you would probably see some kind of deflationary or disinflationary bust first and then this afterwards.”

Mark Jeftovic: Cracking the Code of Finance (March 22, 2024)...

Robert Breedlove...

Summary

 

Artificially suppressed interest rates have led to a global debt super cycle, and the concept of equality of outcome is nonsensical.

 

Economic and Financial System Observations

 
  • The debt super cycle is characterized by artificially suppressed interest rates, leading to a constant decrease in the cost of capital.
  • The central bankers needed something like covid to hit because the system was coming unglued under the hood in late 2019.
  • The artificially suppressed interest rate creates distortions in the marketplace, leading to a global debt super cycle.
  • The concept of deflation is actually beneficial for the economy, leading to more wealth creation and productivity.
  • “Equality of outcome obviously BS. We’re all born different.”
  • “Equality of outcome is a nonsensical concept.”
     

Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Insights

 
  • The centralization aspect of eGold led to its downfall, while Bitcoin’s decentralized nature impressed me as 100% market force in action.
  • Bitcoin is the TCP/IP of non-state anti-fiat money, while other cryptocurrencies are more like startup applications rather than decentralized money.
  • Bitcoin’s total addressable market is probably less than 20% of bitcoin’s total addressable Market, making the risk reward disproportionately in favor of Bitcoin.
  • The idea of inscribing a name server delegation onto an ordinal and putting it on the blockchain to create uncensorable domain names is intriguing and potentially revolutionary.

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