Top Three Videos – March 6, 2024

Market Analysis and Investment Opportunities

• Tavi Costa’s extensive media presence on Bloomberg TV, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and Yahoo Finance showcases his influence and expertise in the industry.
• Tavi Costa highlights the trifactor of macro imbalances, debt problem, speculative environment, and inflationary concerns, creating bullishness for commodities and hard assets.
• Emerging markets and mining stocks look incredibly cheap relative to US markets, making them potentially valuable investments.
• The Brazilian market is as cheap as it was during the depths of the global financial crisis, making it an interesting place to deploy capital.
• The narrowing of equity markets and the rolling over of leading indicators suggest a recession is imminent, despite high multiples in the speculation environment.
• The likelihood of an explosive move of silver is higher than anything I can see in the commodity space.
• Gold mining equities are a very top-down asset class, with a complex and risky nature that requires an active approach to capture upside potential and manage downside risk.
• “The only permanent truth in finance is that people will get bullish at the top and bearish at the bottom.”

   

Macroeconomic Trends and Monetary Policy

• The big change in asset correlations started after the COVID recession and the stimulus that came out of that contraction in the economy, leading to a new era where interest rates behave differently relative to equity markets.
• “The monetary base in the US is rising again at levels like we haven’t seen since the kiwi1 kiwi2 and kiwi3 environments, and the co stimulus, which to me is highly inflationary.”
• The steepening of the yield curve after being deeply inverted is by far the longest period we’ve seen in history, and usually that 70% is a recessionary threshold.