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Top Three Videos – October 5, 2023

How Is the Fed Insolvent and Why Should We Care?

The Human Action Podcast...

Summary

The Federal Reserve is potentially insolvent and its poor investment decisions have led to significant losses, increasing the deficit and debt of the United States.

The Financial Risks and Consequences of the Federal Reserve’s Actions

  • The Federal Reserve is technically insolvent, meaning its losses are greater than its capital.
  • The refusal to pay in gold in 1971 led to the creation of the modern fiat currency Central Bank, like the Federal Reserve, which has no limits on how much money it can create, resulting in a perpetual problem of inflation and constant expansion of government power.
  • The Federal Reserve, as the world’s leading Central Bank, has the power to print unlimited amounts of money, which can potentially lead to inflation.
  • The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has exploded over the last decade, reaching almost 9 trillion dollars, making it a massive organization.
  • The Fed suffered significant losses on mortgage-backed securities due to investing in long-term fixed rate assets when interest rates were low and funding them with floating rate liabilities.
  • The Fed’s potential insolvency is highlighted by the fact that financing assets yielding 2% with expenses of 5% can lead to bankruptcy.
  • The collapse of the Savings and Loan industry in the 1980s was a result of this classic mistake in banking, highlighting the importance of avoiding such risks in the financial sector.
  • The creation of the unprecedented balance sheet by the Fed demonstrates their inability to predict the financial future and avoid colossal losses.
  • The Fed’s actions, such as creating money out of thin air and buying bonds, can lead to unrealized capital losses and cash flow mismatches.
  • The Federal Reserve’s poor investment choices have turned them into the biggest debtor in history, resulting in significant financial losses.
  • The Federal Reserve’s losses directly impact the deficit and debt of the United States, as it spends taxpayer money without Congressional approval.

The Federal Reserve’s Power and Influence

  • The Federal Reserve is an extremely powerful and dangerous organization, functioning as a bank with assets, investments, deposits, and capital, but surprisingly, the stock of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks is not owned by the government.
  • The Federal Reserve has become increasingly powerful and centralized over time, despite making numerous blunders.

Gold Leads Real Interest Rates at Turning Points

The Daily Gold...

Summary

Gold is a leading indicator for market tops and bottoms, as it often peaks before there is a significant increase in real interest rates and can be observed through correlation charts.

Key insights

  • Gold leads real interest rates at important turning points in the gold market, indicating tops and bottoms.
  • The real 10-year yield is the best indicator for gold, according to a study by Pimco.
  • The relationship between gold and real interest rates is not always consistent, as there are instances where gold should have continued to rise but instead consolidated or broke down.
  • Despite the real 10-year yield hitting a new low, gold was already in a correction phase, indicating that gold leads real interest rates at turning points.
  • Gold’s breakout in the mid-2000s, despite the real 10-year yield trending higher, highlights its ability to defy conventional expectations and act independently in the market.
  • The market was able to anticipate the decrease in real interest rates in 2007, indicating that it can be a leading indicator for turning points.
  • Despite a significant increase in real 10-year yields, gold has only experienced a 12% decrease from its all-time high, suggesting potential resilience in the market.
  • Despite the record move in real interest rates, gold has held up well and is not making a lower low, suggesting that it may be poised for a higher low and a potential positive divergence.

Jeff Deist: The Language Vandals

Capitalism and Morality...

Summary

Progressives have politicized various aspects of life and are manipulating language to control behavior and thoughts, and individuals should resist these attempts and defend freedom of speech.

Key insights

  • “What progressives are so good at is using language to frame the debate and by Framing the debate you set the rules and you force everyone who doesn’t agree with you onto their heels.”
  • Language is not only a tool of communication, but also the primary tool of cognition, shaping how we learn and perceive everything in the world.
  • Language is an institution in society subject to corruption and capture by elites, shaping our understanding of human interactions.
  • Language evolution occurs naturally, and it is important to differentiate between imposed language changes and the organic development of languages over time.
  • Orwell’s concept of “meaningless words” is still relevant today, as terms like fascism and democracy are often overused and used in dishonest ways in political discourse.
  • Language is a powerful tool that can be manipulated by progressives as linguistic vandals to reshape and control societal understanding and meanings of words.
  • “These language imposers are lying dissembling projecting ideologues who want to commandeer the English language for their own purposes.”
  • It is commendable that some individuals, like Professor Amy Wax, have the courage to speak out despite the potential consequences.

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