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Top Three Videos – October 7, 2023

► Searching for the Best Gold IRA Company?
This is a MUST-Read...

Commodities War is Accelerating Around the World, This Changes Everything: Mark Moss

The Jay Martin Show...

Summary

The current economic situation is uncertain, with predictions of a recession and high inflation, and there is a shift towards a multi-polar world with increasing competition between countries.

Changing Global Monetary Order and Trust

  • The disconnection between the FX markets and commodity markets suggests a fundamental shift in preference towards commodities over paper currency, indicating a changing global monetary order.
  • The recent seizure of Russia’s bank accounts has raised concerns among nations about the vulnerability of their wealth stored in dollars, leading to a growing realization that holding commodities may be a safer option.
  • Trust is fragile and once broken, it is difficult to rebuild.
  • In a digital world with instant transactions, a trustless system with instant settlement and a ledger that nobody can control is needed to solve the problem of lost trust.
  • Central banks are stockpiling gold at record rates as an interim step during the decline of the American Empire, highlighting the historical significance of gold as a safe haven asset.
  • The real problem is Fiat money that the governments can continue to print at will, expanding the monetary system without the expanding of goods and services.
  • Nations are diversifying their reserve assets, with some adopting Bitcoin as their reserve currency.

Long-term Investing and Economic Trends

  • “As an investor, you shouldn’t be thinking short term if you’re thinking in terms of weeks and months like you’re never going to make it.” – Mark Moss highlights the need for long-term thinking and patience in the world of investing.
  • The conflicting signals in the bond market, real estate market, and corporate bond market create a paradox, making it difficult to determine the true state of the economy.
  • The crash in oil prices was not a crash, but rather a correction from an anomaly where prices had skyrocketed due to the threat of war and Russia’s oil supply being disrupted.
  • The current trend of deglobalization and the disruption of supply chains may lead to a reversal of the previous deflationary effect and result in higher inflation,
  • It’s an entrepreneur’s world, with big problems come big solutions and opportunities.

Geopolitical Shifts and Cultural Changes

  • The rise of trade wars and competition between countries is leading to a multi-polar world where everyone is competing against each other, breaking the previous collaborative supply chains.
  • The commodities war is accelerating around the world, changing everything.
  • This cultural clash and immigration issue is changing the course of history and the makeup of the world forever.
     
  • “The story of the history of the world isn’t it was and is corporatism. It’s always been big businesses been in the air of the governments right. It’s always been a corporatism or fascism.” – Porter Stansberry highlights the influence of corporatism throughout history.

Crescat Gets Activist on Gold & Silver

Crescat Capital...

Summary

Crescat is using their investment strategies, including short positions in certain sectors and companies, and emphasizing the potential of metals and mining companies, particularly gold and silver, as well as the importance of investing in resources.

Market Risks and Challenges

  • The speaker believes that there is a risk of a violent repricing and credit spread blowout in the junk bond space, indicating a potential hard landing in the market.
  • “We think we’re in another tech bubble 2.0 and it’s driven by Mega cap Tech.”
  • “There’s a lot of debt. That’s got to be rolled over and it’s got to be rolled over at much higher interest rates… This is going to create a lot of pain and that is all still to come.”
  • The increasing pillars of inflation, such as wage pressure, de-globalization, housing affordability, and reckless fiscal spending, contribute to the current economic challenges.
  • The inverted yield curve and recent steepening dynamic could be indicators of an upcoming recession, as seen in previous instances.
  • The volatility of the treasury market, as indicated by the MOVE index, could cause credit spreads to spike, making shorting credit spreads or junk bonds a potentially profitable macro trade.
  • The surge in global median rates and the risk of collateral destruction on fixed income securities may be understated by the market, raising concerns about the potential return of FX market volatility and other financial instabilities.

Potential Investment Opportunities

  • The development of Crescat’s fundamental Equity Quant model has been a 30-year ongoing project, and the recent advancements in AI and machine learning have allowed them to fully operationalize and automate the backtesting process.
  • The mining and metals industry has been overlooked and deemed too risky, but it presents significant upside appreciation potential and true value.
  • “Resource underinvestment is a huge factor in inflation, and we are long energy and oil and gas stocks to capitalize on this.”
  • “This was a 1520 bagger for us, we got in originally back in early 2020.”
  • A drill intercept in Nevada’s Atlanta project yielded a remarkable 11.64 grams per ton of gold over 108.3 meters, highlighting the immense potential for high-grade gold deposits in the area.
  • The high-grade core, with a grade of nearly 12 grams per ton, is the best zone discovered so far, surpassing the previous intercepts of one to three grams per ton.
  • There could potentially be tens of millions of tons of gold and silver hiding in the drilled area, indicating a significant upside for investment.

Gold and Precious Metals Outlook

  • The speaker suggests that gold may become a new haven asset in the current environment, potentially leading to increased interest from central banks.
  • “Gold hitting new highs and potentially breaking $2500 wouldn’t surprise me at all.”
  • The sentiment and skepticism towards gold often turns bearish at the wrong times, making it a great opportunity to step in and buy.

Inflation in Money or Prices? The Definition Matters

The Human Action Podcast...

Summary

Understanding inflation requires looking beyond traditional metrics and considering factors such as the true money supply, consumer preferences, and central bank actions.

Impact of Money Supply on Inflation

  • “The common belief that inflation is a price phenomenon is incorrect, as the correct measure of inflation should be a measure of the money supply.”
  • The increase in M1 money supply after the 2008 financial crisis did not result in the expected rise in consumer prices, challenging the traditional understanding of inflation.
  • Depending on the metric used, such as M1 or M2, different conclusions can be drawn about the potential for price inflation, highlighting the importance of choosing the right metric for analysis.
  • The disconnect between the economist’s definition of inflation as rising prices and the historical correlation between creating more money and rapidly rising prices is concerning.
  • “If businesses could just keep raising their prices 10% every year, why don’t they keep doing that? The obvious answer is that if the quantity of money is not rising 10% each year, their sales will fall through the floor.”
  • Central banks creating excessive amounts of local currency can be a major factor in causing significant inflation, as seen in countries like Argentina, Venezuela, and Zimbabwe.

Definition and Measurement of Inflation

  • “If you can’t pay your bills or groceries with something, it is not money.”
  • It is important to consider which definition of money is used, as it can significantly impact the understanding and measurement of inflation.
  • “They cleverly shifted the conversation from the cause of rising prices to just talking about the symptoms, making it impossible to cure the problem.”
  • Inflation in prices is the symptom, while inflation in money pumping is the underlying disease.
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