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Top Three Videos – August 9, 2023

The Worst Case Scenario Just Started (And Why the Financial System is on the Verge of Collapse)
Steven Van Metre

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • The worst case scenario has started and the financial system is on the verge of an outright collapse.
  • The nightmare scenario is starting, with dire consequences for the banks and the financial system.
  • The financial system is on the verge of collapse due to declining income metrics, rising funding costs, and increasing asset risk for small and mid-sized banks with commercial real estate exposure.
  • The nightmare scenario is unfolding as credit card debt drops, signaling the end of the spending spree and highlighting the critical need for continuous origination of new money in a debt-based system.
  • When consumers start spending less and focus on paying down debt, it can have a ripple effect on manufacturers and overall business activity.
  • The artificial increase in interest rates by the Fed is causing a contraction in credit, potentially leading to a collapse of the financial system.
  • The decrease in imports and consumer spending is a sign of retrenchment and deleveraging, which could lead to a collapse of the financial system.
  • “The financial system is on the verge of collapse.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 The financial system is on the verge of collapse as a gold company makes a major announcement and potential stock move, while credit risk declines and confidence in the banking system increases.
    • The worst case scenario has started, indicating that the financial system is on the verge of collapse, as warned before, with a major announcement from a gold company and a potential 38 percent stock move, while the underlying issues were previously overlooked.
    • Credit risk gauge declined as inflation cools, signaling global growth stabilization and a soft landing, leading to increased confidence in the banking system and a surge in high-risk loan investments, indicating that the financial system is improving.
  • 02:24 Banks are in a dire financial situation with declining income, rising funding costs, and the inability to originate high interest loans, leading to lower credit profiles and potential collapse.
    • Banks are relieved to unload their garbage loans and hung debt to investors as they anticipate the start of a nightmare scenario with dire consequences.
    • U.S. Bank shares dropped as Moody’s cut ratings due to higher funding costs, potential regulatory capital weakness, and rising risk tied to commercial real estate, which has lowered the credit profile for several banks.
    • Banks are facing a worsening financial situation due to capital outflow, stock drops, declining income, rising funding costs, and the inability to originate high interest loans, which is impacting profitability and asset risk.
  • 05:17 Consumers reaching credit limits and paying off debt instead of borrowing is causing a nightmare scenario for banks, potentially leading to a collapse of the financial system.
    • Consumers reaching their credit limits and facing high interest rates is causing a nightmare scenario for banks, as they are unable to offer new loans and create new money in the debt-based system.
    • The economy is slowing down and when credit starts to reverse, the financial system is on the verge of collapse, as seen in the recent increase in non-revolving credit due to the end of the student loan repayment moratorium.
    • Consumer debt, particularly revolving debt or credit card debt, has started to decrease, indicating that more people are paying off their debt than borrowing, which is a concerning sign for the financial system as it could lead to a collapse.
  • 08:55 The increase in interest rates is causing borrowers to prioritize paying off debt, leading to a decline in factory sector activity and potential collapse of the financial system.
    • The increase in interest rates is causing borrowers to prioritize paying off their debt, which is bad news for the financial system, retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers.
    • New orders and general activity are falling, indicating a potential decline in the factory sector, leading to more layoffs and reduced need for manufacturing, transportation, warehousing, and retail space.
    • The financial system is on the verge of collapse as the contraction in credit and the decrease in consumer borrowing indicate a need for new money creation, causing interest rates to lower rapidly and putting the system at risk.
  • 12:08 China’s declining exports and imports, along with a global economic downturn and domestic demand in China, indicate a potential deflationary scenario, while the US trade deficit narrows due to decreased imports.
    • China’s double-digit plunge in exports and imports, along with a slowdown in the US and other major economies, suggests a global economic downturn and worsening domestic demand in China.
    • China’s credit slowdown and declining imports suggest a potential deflationary scenario, while the US trade deficit narrows due to a decline in imports.
  • 14:33 Americans are spending less, imports are declining, and consumer credit is decreasing, indicating a potential collapse of the financial system due to retrenchment and deleveraging.
    • Imports have been declining, reflecting decreases in the value of capital goods and industrial supplies, which is a sign of disinflation and indicates that consumers are retrenching and deleveraging, leading to less spending, fewer employees, and a potential collapse of the banks.
    • Americans are spending less on goods and services, leading to a decrease in imports and consumer credit, which suggests a future increase in unemployment and a potential financial system collapse.
  • 16:22 Northern Superior resources has consolidated two areas in Quebec and Ontario, potentially increasing stock value, and there is potential for profit if the stock breaks out to the upside due to major gold deposits in the Shibu Gamu gold camp.
    • Northern Superior resources is a gold exploration company that has consolidated two areas in Quebec and Ontario, allowing them to maximize equipment usage, reduce costs, and potentially achieve a significant gain in stock value.
    • The stock has entered a trading range with a supply zone and a zone above, and if it breaks out to the upside, there is potential for profit.
    • The speaker discusses the consolidation of the Shibu Gamu gold camp and the potential for major gold deposits in the area, highlighting the viability of resources and the stock price of a company involved in the project.
  • 19:34 If the price breaks out of the supply zone, there is a high potential for a significant increase, as Northern Superior’s undervalued stock may see a substantial rise due to a mineral resource estimate announcement.
    • Price is currently in a supply zone, but if it breaks out, the potential for a significant increase is high.
    • Northern Superior has announced a significant mineral resource estimate, potentially leading to a substantial increase in their undervalued stock, and buyers are expected to drive the stock price up once sellers are flushed out.

Bill Holter, Andy Schectman: Credit Markets Getting Tighter, Pressuring The Banks
Arcadia Economics

Quick Summary Bullets:

Financial Market Instability and Risks

  • “The Final Chapter will be a credit event induced by either a tight or seized up credit system.”
  • There is virtually no downside risk in the prices of gold and silver, making them attractive investments.
  • The events in March and April represented six months’ worth of business, highlighting the rapid and significant changes that can occur in the financial markets.
  • “It will only take one bank, one bail in, to trigger an absolute run as people start to worry if their bank is next.”
  • “Non-recourse loans have to reset or be refinanced. It’s going to create a massive strain on the system one that there’s no way they’re gonna. We’re gonna get away from unscathed someone has to take the losses that’s the bottom line.”
  • “Once the derivatives break, you could see many commodities that double, triple, quadruple in price literally overnight simply because the financial cushion of the derivatives suppressing the price is gone and then it’s discovered that the supply doesn’t exist.”
  • The failure to deliver in the credit markets can cause financial problems, potentially leading to a bail-in scenario and mass hysteria among people seeking to exit the system.

Decline of the US Dollar and Global Currency Shift

  • “Individuals and businesses are going to treat the dollar like a hot potato, causing a hyperinflationary moment when the dollar is dumped by nations stockpiling their own currencies for trade settlement.”
  • The dollar is moving away from the system and towards extinction, as countries like Saudi Arabia, China, and Brazil are accepting other currencies like the Yuan for trade, signaling a shift away from the dollar as the global settlement currency.
  • “When you put all these groups together…you’re north of 85 percent of the world’s people that are going to be indoctrinated slowly and then steadily and then all at once into a new settlement system.”
  • “The 2022 balance sheet shows that the US has 155 trillion in debt versus just over 5 trillion in assets, with student debt being the largest at almost 40% of the assets – is that really a country that should have a AAA rating? I don’t think so.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 There is a possibility of a credit event in the financial markets due to a tightened credit system, while the gold and silver industry has seen an increase in demand recently with lower prices and premiums.
    • The speaker discusses the possibility of a credit event induced by a tightened or seized up credit system, indicating a problem ahead in the financial markets.
    • The speaker discusses the current state of the gold and silver industry and provides an update on the news from last week.
    • Premiums for gold and silver have reached their lowest levels in four years, with no further expected decline, resulting in minimal downside risk for buyers.
    • Business slowed down in the last two months, but there has been an uptick in demand recently, particularly in the last two or three weeks, with lower prices and premiums bringing more people into the market, and the demand has been bigger than last year.
  • 04:08 The banks are no longer safe for people’s money, and a potential crisis is looming as the pressure on credit markets increases and people start losing their money.
    • The speaker discusses the unprecedented event of the banks no longer being a safe place for people’s money due to Janet Yellen’s actions, and warns that when people start losing their money and are bailed in, panic will ensue, especially if it exceeds the FDIC level of $250,000.
    • The increasing pressure on credit markets is causing a significant outflow of money from commercial banks, leading to a potential run on banks and a shift towards investing directly with the treasury.
    • The banks are facing increasing pressure and there is a potential crisis looming, as the current calm in the credit markets may be the calm before the storm.
  • 06:46 The tightening credit markets and increasing velocity indicate a forthcoming problem, as individuals and businesses abandon the dollar, causing hyperinflation and forcing the Federal Reserve to become the buyer of last resort for U.S. treasuries.
    • Non-recourse loans need to be reset or refinanced, which will put a strain on the system and someone will have to take the losses; credit standards have tightened and a credit event will likely occur due to a tight or seized up credit system.
    • The tightening credit markets and increasing velocity indicate a forthcoming problem, as once velocity turns higher, it becomes the “Hot Potato” moment.
    • Individuals and businesses will likely abandon the dollar, causing a hyperinflation event, as countries dump their stockpiled dollars and settle in their own currencies, eroding the dollar’s reserve status and forcing the Federal Reserve to become the buyer of last resort for U.S. treasuries.
  • 10:59 The BRICS nations and other countries are moving away from the US dollar, accepting other currencies for trade, and potentially creating a new settlement system, as indicated by recent events such as the downgrade of US debt by Fitch.
    • The BRICS nations are likely to announce a framework for moving away from US infrastructure, possibly with a timeline, at their upcoming meeting.
    • Countries like Saudi Arabia, China, France, and Brazil are already accepting currencies other than the US dollar for trade, indicating a shift away from the dollar and towards other currencies like the Yuan, which is convertible into gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
    • The majority of the global population, including the Belt Road initiative, OPEC countries, and 150+ countries, will be gradually and then suddenly indoctrinated into a new settlement system, with the recent downgrade of US debt by Fitch being noteworthy.
  • 14:46 The US’s high debt to GDP ratio has led to a downgrade in its credit rating, making it resemble a Banana Republic and raising doubts about the credibility of the US dollar as the world’s Reserve currency, while concerns are also expressed about the erosion of freedom and justice in America.
    • The speaker discusses the downgrade of the US credit rating and argues that the country’s high debt to GDP ratio makes it resemble a Banana Republic.
    • The US is now heavily in debt and has lost its reputation as a trusted nation with a strong rule of law, making it a Banana Republic both financially and in terms of governance, raising questions about the credibility of the US dollar as the world’s Reserve currency.
    • The speaker expresses concern about the unequal administration of liberty and justice, the erosion of freedom and first amendment rights, and the gradual decay leading to issues such as transgenderism, cancel culture, and censorship.
    • America is eroding its values of liberty and justice, and the division of justice is not being applied equally, which is a symptom of a greater problem.
  • 19:37 Financial problems and declining inventories in silver are causing concerns about the acceptance of the dollar as the world Reserve standard, leading to potential failures in the credit markets and increased demand for gold and silver, which may force the Federal Reserve to implement quantitative easing.
    • There are alarming times in the monetary front and worldwide opinion regarding the acceptance of the dollar as the world Reserve standard, with concerns about deficits and declining inventories in silver.
    • The speaker suggests that a financial problem triggering a failure to deliver or a failure to deliver causing a financial problem will lead to a collapse in the credit markets, resulting in a significant increase in the prices of various commodities due to the absence of supply.
    • Financial problems can cause a failure to deliver, leading to a potential bank bail-in and mass hysteria, which could increase demand for gold and silver.
    • There is a significant increase in demand for silver due to green energy, military, industrial, and monetary demand, which may lead to a squeeze on the comex and lbma before the Federal Reserve reverts back to QE and lowers interest rates.
    • The Federal Reserve may be forced to implement quantitative easing due to tightening credit markets and potential failures in various sectors, similar to past cycles where rate cuts created bubbles that eventually led to rate hikes and subsequent economic downturns.
    • Rates are higher now than during the last hiking cycle, the US has a deficit and the world Reserve status is being questioned, with the US adding $1.8 trillion in eight weeks, which took 209 years to do last time, and if rates are lowered it shows a lack of desire to hold dollars and a disregard for inflation and interest.
  • 26:11 The speakers discuss the tight credit markets and the pressure on banks, while also mentioning their upcoming book with Robert Kiyosaki and the availability of low-priced Silver Bullman rounds.
    • The speaker discusses the current state of credit markets and the pressure it is putting on banks, and also mentions that they are writing a book together.
    • They are working on a book with Robert Kiyosaki and have a title for it, and they hope to finish it soon.
    • Silver Bullman rounds are currently available at a low price, making it a good opportunity to buy, and the speakers appreciate each other’s presence on the show.
  • 29:13 BlackRock has made advancements in their silver and lithium projects, including updating their geologic model and increasing the strike length of their vein system, while also dealing with a bear market in the silver mining stock space.
    • BlackRock silver has made advancements in their Tonopah West and Silver Cloud projects, including updating their geologic model and increasing the strike length of their vein system, while also testing high-grade veins in their Silver Cloud project.
    • BlackRock has made a lithium discovery at Tonopah North and has been funding exploration drilling, while also dealing with a bear market in the silver mining stock space.

Nuland visits Niger. Elensky, Black Sea war. FT, don't let Ukraine into EU. Putin sick, again.
Alex Christoforou

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • Victoria Newland’s meeting with leadership in Niger was described as “Frank and difficult,” suggesting tense relations and potential challenges in finding a resolution to the crisis.
  • Victoria Nuland’s warning in Niger suggests the possibility of military intervention and all-out war in the region, raising concerns about the stability and peace in West Africa.
  • “Ukraine is losing a ton of money from the grain deal…I believe it’s something like 500 million USD a month.” – The collapse of the grain deal between Ukraine and Russia has resulted in significant financial losses for Ukraine, amounting to approximately $500 million per month.
  • “Aletsky declares war on Russia’s Navy in the Black Sea, threatening to destroy their entire fleet if they don’t leave.”
  • Despite being trained by NATO and feeling confident, Ukraine military brigades are being completely wiped out by the Russian military.
  • The goal of Ukraine’s campaign to reach the Sea of Azov and break through Russian fortifications is deemed impossible without air support, according to military experts.
  • The Financial Times argues that allowing Ukraine into the EU would be a “complete disaster” on all levels – economic, social, and political.
  • The cultural center in Moscow has created a beautiful forest in its backyard, making it a unique and inviting space for the public.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Victoria Nuland visits Niger to deliver a warning about possible military intervention in response to the coup, while also discussing her involvement in regime change in Ukraine.
    • The video update from Moscow discusses Victoria Nuland and the need for protection from rain while recording in front of the Church of Christ.
    • Victoria Nuland’s trip to Niger was not to find a solution to the crisis, but rather to deliver an ultimatum to the military coup government to step down or face intervention from the United States, France, and ECOWAS nations.
    • Victoria Nuland visits Niger to deliver a warning about possible military intervention and invasion in response to the coup, while also discussing her involvement in regime change in Ukraine.
  • 05:24 Ukraine declares war on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet due to financial losses and potential corruption surrounding a collapsed grain agreement, using drone strikes as a distraction from their failing counter-offensive.
    • Ukraine is increasing its attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet due to the collapsed grain agreement, resulting in significant financial losses for Ukraine and potential corruption surrounding the deal.
    • Ukraine is using drone strikes on the Russian Black Sea Fleet to divert attention from their failed counter-offensive and is declaring war on Russia’s Black Sea shipping.
    • The distraction from the failing counter-offensive is a declaration of war from Elensky towards Russia’s Navy in the Black Sea, which is being reported by various mainstream media outlets.
  • 10:25 Ukraine’s military campaign is failing against the Russian military, resulting in significant losses and the need for regrouping, leading to a bleak outlook for the Alexa regime.
    • Ukraine Marines, trained by NATO, are confident in their ability to complete their mission, but entire Ukraine military brigades are being wiped out by the Russian military, as described in an article from foreign policy.
    • Ukraine’s military campaign to reach the Sea of Azov and break through Russian fortifications is failing due to lack of air support, according to experts interviewed by Newsweek.
    • Ukraine’s counter-offensive has resulted in significant losses, leading commanders to hold back some units for regrouping and reducing casualties.
    • The counter-offensive in Ukraine may not be called off officially, but instead, it will fade away and the Alexa regime is facing bad news both militarily and politically.
  • 16:08 The Financial Times warns against Ukraine joining the EU due to negative impacts from current trade relationships, while the Biden administration approves tank delivery to Ukraine and propaganda about Putin’s health circulates amidst a Hollywood scriptwriters strike.
    • The Financial Times warns that allowing Ukraine into the European Union would have disastrous economic, social, and political consequences, as Ukraine’s current trade and business relationships with the EU have already caused negative impacts.
    • Visit Moscow’s Strokka for a great view of the river and Christ the Savior, and enjoy a drink or dinner there.
    • The Biden White House has approved the delivery of stripped-down Abrams tanks to Ukraine, while there is a Hollywood scriptwriters strike resulting in the recycling of propaganda about Putin being sick.
  • 21:42 Speculation about Putin’s health and potential successors in Russia is discussed, with the conclusion that Russia would likely continue the conflict in Ukraine under new leadership.
    • Speculation about Vladimir Putin’s health and potential successors in Russia is discussed, referencing various sources and chatter surrounding his possible sickness.
    • The transcript discusses speculation about Putin’s illness and how it could potentially lead to a pause in the conflict in Ukraine, but ultimately concludes that it is wishful thinking and that Russia would likely restart the conflict under new leadership.
    • The speaker discusses the hope of avoiding an exam by the teacher being absent or a fire alarm going off, and relates it to the current conflict situation and the uncertainty of the future.
  • 25:59 Ukraine considers celebrating Thanksgiving Day, while a new cultural center in Moscow with a forest raises curiosity about the trees.
    • Ukraine is considering a bill to celebrate Thanksgiving Day, which is ironic considering the US has portions of society trying to cancel the holiday.
    • There is a new cultural center in Moscow with a forest in the back, open to the public, and the speaker is curious about the type of trees there.
  • 29:09 Ukraine is fighting the conflict with Russia alone, despite receiving significant support and assistance from other countries.
    • Ukraine is allegedly fighting the conflict with Russia on its own without any help from NATO or other Western countries, which is seen as unlikely by the speaker.
    • Ukraine is fighting the conflict with Russia without any help from other countries, despite the significant support and assistance they have received.
  • 33:02 The Cultural Center offers various amenities such as a cinema, library, workshops, and a playground, with free entrance and registration required for access.

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