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Top Three Videos – August 24, 2023

Disaster Awaits As Wage Inflation Takes Off | John Rubino

Liberty and Finance

Quick Summary Bullets:

Economic Concerns and Potential Crisis

  • “If they don’t get inflation under control, then we’re going to lose faith in the currency. In other words, we’re going to assume that the dollar is going to lose value at an accelerating rate going forward and we’ll act accordingly in ways that are very inflationary themselves.”
  • “There are a lot of cross currents out there and I think there are some reasons to be really worried about the state of the economy right now.”
  • Wage inflation could lead to a disaster as central banks may have to respond aggressively to an economic slowdown, posing a potential existential threat to over-leveraged financial entities.
  • “One side is going to be right and we don’t know which one for sure but um. We’re going to see it play out in the next couple of years and we’ll find out.”
  • If wage growth spreads at a high rate of 10 or 12 percent a year, the Fed may raise interest rates aggressively, which could hurt bond prices.
  • Rising interest rates can result in losses from bond portfolios, leading to a decrease in real estate prices and potentially causing runs on banks, insurance companies, and pension funds.
  • “That’s a recipe for a financial crisis that leads to a really dramatic recession too.”
  • “Disaster awaits as wage inflation takes off.”

Investment Strategies and Market Predictions

  • “Michael Burry, of ‘The Big Short’ fame, just announced a huge bet against tech stocks, predicting a decline in the NASDAQ.”
  • “Warren Buffett is accumulating a lot of cash and buying treasuries, indicating his anticipation of things getting cheaper in the future.”
  • The possibility of a financial crisis could lead to an increase in demand for gold and silver as people look for safe places to put their money when their banks are no longer considered safe.
  • The potential introduction of a gold and silver backed currency by the BRICS countries is being debated, highlighting the ongoing shift away from traditional fiat currencies and towards alternative forms of money.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 If the Fed doesn’t control inflation, it could lead to loss of faith in currency, acceleration of inflation, and potential recession due to increasing credit card debt and resumption of student loan payments.
    • The speaker warns that if the Fed doesn’t control inflation, it could lead to a loss of faith in the currency and cause an acceleration of inflationary actions.
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    • There are concerns about the state of the economy as big players are betting against the market and there are various cross currents happening.
    • Credit card debt in the US is increasing, with many people carrying balances and paying high interest rates, while the resumption of student loan payments in October may lead to financial trouble and lower consumer spending, potentially causing a recession.
  • 04:53 Slowing economy and wage inflation could harm investors with cyclical investments, causing concern for the stock market, while rising gold and silver prices may be due to seasonal demand and anticipation of central bank easing, making it a good time to invest in precious metals.
    • A slowing economy and wage inflation could lead to a tough time for investors with cyclical investments, causing concern for the overall stock market and the value of portfolios, while precious metals like silver are rising.
    • Gold and silver prices may go against the stock market due to seasonal demand from Asian weddings, particularly from Indians and Chinese people, who tend to give gold and silver jewelry as gifts during the spring.
    • Gold and silver prices have been increasing, possibly due to seasonality or anticipation of central banks easing aggressively in response to an economic slowdown, making it a good time to invest in precious metals.
  • 08:09 Rising wages and wage inflation may lead to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, risking currency devaluation and accelerating inflation, while conflicting market factors make investing difficult and high-profile investors like Buffett and Murray are accumulating cash and treasuries in anticipation of future price drops.
    • Wage inflation and rising wages, particularly in industries like airlines, may force the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates, despite signs of financial stress and a slowing economy.
    • If wage inflation continues and the Fed doesn’t tighten monetary policy, there is a risk of losing faith in the currency and experiencing accelerating inflation.
    • There are conflicting factors in the market making it difficult to invest, with high-profile investors like Michael Burry betting against tech stocks.
    • Buffett and Murray are accumulating cash and buying treasuries in anticipation of future price drops, but their actions should not be immediately followed by others.
  • 12:09 Be cautious and diversify investments as wage inflation may negatively impact the real estate market, with low existing home sales and high mortgage rates, but home builders are benefiting from the trend of people preferring to have houses built for them.
    • Be cautious and diversify your investments as wage inflation may lead to big moves in the economy, which could negatively impact the real estate market due to high mortgage rates and low existing home sales.
    • People are not buying or selling houses, which is a bad sign for real estate, but Warren Buffett is buying home builders because higher mortgage rates are keeping existing homeowners locked into their houses.
    • Home builders are benefiting from the trend of people preferring to have houses built for them rather than buying existing ones, and there is also a scenario in real estate where baby boomers are downsizing their homes.
  • 15:39 The aging boomer generation selling houses and troubles in the Airbnb market may lead to a surplus of houses for sale, causing prices to fall and negatively impacting home builders, making it potentially profitable to short their stocks.
    • As the aging boomer generation starts selling their houses and the Airbnb market faces trouble, there will be an increase in the number of houses for sale.
    • The shortage of houses for sale may lead to a surplus, causing prices to fall and negatively impacting home builders, making it potentially profitable to short their stocks.
    • Rubino is uncertain about the future of operating earnings and share prices, and is personally shorting some home builders.
  • 18:19 Wage inflation and rising interest rates could lead to a financial crisis and recession, causing bond prices to drop, real estate prices to decrease, and banks to collapse, prompting concerns about the banking system and a shift towards investing in precious metals.
    • If the Fed continues to raise rates due to wage inflation, it will put pressure on financial institutions like banks and pension funds that own bonds and have real estate exposure.
    • Bond prices going down leads to capital losses for financial institutions, causing real estate prices to decrease, resulting in reported losses, falling stock prices, and money being withdrawn from banks, insurance companies, and pension funds.
    • Wage inflation and rising interest rates could lead to a financial crisis and recession similar to the housing bubble and bust of 2005-2010, with banks collapsing and the need for bailouts.
    • People are debating whether to keep their money in the bank or invest in precious metals due to concerns about the banking system and the potential for wage inflation.
  • 22:01 Hold onto your precious metals as they may provide a safe alternative during a financial crisis, and consider buying more in anticipation of a slowing economy and banking crisis.
    • In a financial crisis, people may withdraw their money from banks and invest in gold and silver as a safe alternative, potentially leading to an increase in demand for precious metals and cushioning the effects of a recession on their prices.
    • Gold and silver may either be negatively impacted by a stock market crash or benefit from a banking crisis, but it is uncertain which scenario will occur.
    • Hold onto your precious metals as they will continue to be valuable until there is a significant monetary reset.
    • Consider buying more gold and silver in anticipation of a slowing economy and banking crisis, especially high-quality miners, and continue dollar cost averaging to accumulate more ounces at a lower price.
  • 26:09 Stay conservative, hold physical assets, and focus on actionable investments during uncertain times; Brics countries may introduce gold and silver backed currency and explore de-dollarization, potentially impacting global finance; Wage inflation is rising, posing a potential disaster.
    • Stay conservative in your approach to wealth, hold physical assets, and focus on actionable investments during this uncertain time in financial history.
    • Brics countries are discussing the possibility of introducing a gold and silver backed currency and are also exploring de-dollarization in order to trade among themselves using their own currencies, which could have significant financial implications.
    • Rubino mentions the importance of keeping an eye on future developments and expresses gratitude for the guest’s time.
    • Wage inflation is increasing, which could lead to a disaster.

Global Depression by 2025 Inevitable? with Simon Hunt

WTFinance

Quick Summary Bullets:

Key insights

  • “Long-term rates will yield between 10 and 13 percent, what does that do to a world that is indebted to the extent of three and a half times Global GDP?” – Simon Hunt raises concerns about the impact of high long-term rates on a heavily indebted world.
  • “Forget about nuclear war, that’s just nonsense. Hypersonic missiles or issues in The Straits of Hormuz propelled by America are more likely to influence developments.”
  • “Inflation is going to reappear it’s falling at the moment that was all part of our forecasts but it remains sticky because if you look at between 2014 and 2021 that seven year period central banks and governments unleashed 200 trillion dollars more than the value of GDP.”
  • The second wave of inflation will be much more severe than the first wave, with global inflation projected to reach 13-15% by the end of next year, exacerbated by rising energy and food prices due to supply disruptions.
  • “The possibility is that you will have a war between countries in the G7 against countries in the brics I.E the war between NATO and Russia will expand.”
  • Europe is experiencing massive political change, with extremism taking over multiple countries, regardless of left or right ideologies.
  • Economically, the world will either be in deep recession or depression after the turbulent period, lasting until the early 2030s.
  • Simon Hunt suggests that the risk of war spreading globally, beyond Ukraine and neighboring countries, is a real possibility by the mid-2020s, signaling the potential end of the American Empire.

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 A global depression by 2025 is inevitable due to long-term rates controlled by central banks, the US already being in a recession, potential retaliation from Putin, and the possibility of a new lockdown in America.
    • Long-term rates controlled by central banks will cause a major collapse in a world heavily indebted to three and a half times Global GDP.
    • The US is likely already in a recession, as evidenced by falling employment data and job openings, and it will take a catalyst for the market to acknowledge this reality, whether it be problems in the US treasury markets or external events.
    • Putin’s potential retaliation and the possibility of a new lockdown in America are significant factors that could contribute to a global depression by 2025.
  • 04:33 There are catalysts that will cause a market decline, resulting in a recession in America, with the possibility of a global depression by 2025, due to excessive government spending and inflation.
    • There will be catalysts that will cause the market to decline, resulting in a 30% decrease in the S&P by the end of the year, leading to falling employment, tightening lending standards, and a recession in America, with the possibility of a global depression by 2025.
    • Central banks and governments have unleashed $200 trillion more than the value of GDP between 2014 and 2021, leading to the reemergence of inflation.
    • Inflation will rise significantly by the end of next year, leading to global economic turmoil and high long-term interest rates, which will have a major impact on a heavily indebted world.
  • 10:32 A global depression by 2025 is inevitable, with civil unrest and the possibility of war between G7 and BRICS countries, as China implements capitalist policies and Western companies leave China, leading to a potential 30-40% global stock market fall.
    • Major collapse is inevitable, with civil unrest and the possibility of war between G7 and BRICS countries.
    • China is implementing capitalist policies by allowing weak companies and sectors to collapse while supporting homeowners and taking greater control over local government budgets, which is seen as a positive cleaning up of the system.
    • Western companies leaving China and a deepening recession in Europe, with the EU’s survivability in serious doubt, may lead to a global stock market fall of 30 to 40 percent by the end of the year.
  • 16:09 Europe and the US face political changes and economic challenges, with a minor recession followed by a severe one in 2024/2025, but interrupted by a temporary inflation-driven recovery, leading to high oil and metal prices but a crash in equities by the end of 2024.
    • German and Chinese companies are unlikely to leave Russia and China, respectively, despite political pressure.
    • Europe is facing the possibility of significant political change due to the rise of extremism, and the US has been actively working to dismember Russia and prevent the alliance between Germany, Russia, and China from developing.
    • Minor recession in the next six months followed by a more severe recession in 2024/2025, but interrupted by a huge inflation-driven recovery with euphoria and positive thoughts in manufacturing, restocking, and investment, leading to oil prices over 150 and doubled base metal prices, but equities would crash by the end of 2024.
  • 21:57 A global depression is predicted to occur by 2025 due to civil wars and instability, leading to economic collapse and social unrest until the early 2030s, when the rule of law will be established and the metals industry will enter a golden age.
    • The turbulent period following the predicted civil wars and global instability will lead to a deep recession or depression, political and social instability, lasting until the early 2030s, when common sense will prevail and the rule of law will become the foundation of a new society.
    • Hunt predicts that there will be a difficult period with collapsing base metals prices until the early 2030s, after which the world will revert to its growth rates and the metals industry will enter a golden age.
    • By the early 2030s, companies will go bankrupt and metal producers will no longer sell their output for dollars, as inflation will be worked out and commodity markets will have a golden age.
  • 27:18 Countries like UAE, India, and Argentina moving away from the US dollar and trading with China could lead to a global depression by 2025.
    • Hunt discusses the possibility of a commodity-backed currency within the BRICS community and the potential for de-dollarization among these economies.
    • Countries like UAE, India, and Argentina are moving away from the US dollar, relying more on their own currencies and trading with China, which could lead to a global depression by 2025.
  • 30:56 The global economic system is at risk of changing, with G7 countries operating on fiat currency while the rest of the world shifts away, potentially leading to war and a need to protect wealth with precious metals like gold.
    • Last year, Hunt mentioned that there will be surpluses between countries and they will be resolved through a third party or an interstate mechanism.
    • The global economic system is likely to change, with G7 countries continuing to operate on fiat currency while the rest of the world shifts away, leading to a potential risk of war and the need to protect wealth through precious metals like gold.

Andy Schectman: Silver Premiums Low As Banks Get Downgraded Again

Arcadia Economics

Quick Summary Bullets:

Historical Value and Importance of Gold and Silver

  • “The one thing that I would say I learned over all of these years that I would say is an absolute is that bull markets go higher than anyone ever thinks possible and bear markets fall further than anyone ever thinks possible.”
  • Despite the volatility and instant gratification of other investments, gold and silver have maintained their value over time.
  • Gold and silver have maintained their purchasing power over the years, with silver increasing eightfold and gold increasing eight or nine times since the speaker started their business.
  • “Gold and silver have never been more important, with a 5,000 year history of maintaining purchasing power over time, despite their lack of movement in relation to the current narrative or environment.”
  • “A system that lacks trust and that’s what gold is. Even Herbert Hoover said it you know almost 100 years ago that that’s why we hold it and you know it’s an asset that is no one’s liability.”
  • “When you can buy metal right now at the lowest premiums that we’ve seen in four years and the best availability… it should be impossible to get, everyone should be buying it to own a piece of it in their portfolio.”
  • “Gold and silver will be what it always has been, an island of safety in the world of insanity.”
  • “When you couldn’t even find it at all in the first quarter, that was indicative of people gobbling up whatever wasn’t nailed down.” – Andy Schectman suggests that the high demand for silver in the first quarter led to scarcity, emphasizing the strong interest in acquiring the precious metal.

Concerns about the Banking System and Economic Stability

  • The Dodd-Frank law states that banks should be bailed in, not bailed out, which could lead to a rise in premiums and demand for silver as people lose trust in the banking system.
  • “If we allow the banks to control the money first by inflation and then by deflation, they will own everything.” – Thomas Jefferson’s warning about the potential consequences of banks’ control over the economy.
  • “The probability of these things happening or accelerating and this is why I think the biggest money in the world has been making an overt and methodical push to accumulate gold and silver using the Western suppression of price to run cover.”
  • “The handwriting is on the wall, and people need to realize that there has never been a greater reason to protect themselves against the ultimate dollar collapse.”
  • The potential impact of a dollar devaluation and interest rate spike on various markets, including real estate, bonds, and businesses, could be devastating.

Transcript:

  • 00:00 Premiums for silver are at their lowest in four years, with gold and silver expected to have their moment in the sun as central banks and commercial banks rush into them due to the economic consequences of easy money and low interest rates.
    • Premiums for silver have stabilized at rock bottom, the lowest they have been in four years, according to Andy Schechman of Miles Franklin.
    • Silver prices have significantly increased over the years, with the speaker reflecting on the unpredictability of bull and bear markets and the significant rise in silver prices since they started in the industry.
    • The speaker discusses the fluctuating value of the Nikkei and Dow Jones, highlighting the instant gratification mindset in investments due to the increase in money supply and interest rate suppression.
    • Gold and silver have maintained their purchasing power over the years, with silver increasing eightfold and gold increasing eight or nine times, and while the West has suppressed their prices, the speaker believes that we are leaving that environment and gold and silver will have their moment in the sun, but we should be cautious about the accompanying environment.
    • Gold and silver’s 5,000 year history of maintaining purchasing power makes them important, despite their lack of movement, as central banks and commercial banks are rushing into them in anticipation of the economic consequences of easy money and low interest rates.
    • Silver has consistently maintained its purchasing power over the years, despite its slow and frustrating nature, so it is important to hold on and trust your instincts.
  • 07:37 Premiums for physical silver are at their lowest levels in four years, making it a good time to buy gold and silver due to global uncertainties and potential bank downgrades.
    • The stock market experienced significant growth in the past decade due to the effects of zero percent interest rate policy, with the NASDAQ doubling in value in a year and a half, while the expected impact on the silver market has not yet occurred.
    • The recent downgrade of regional banks due to a sharp rise in interest rates and the decline in deposits held by the Federal Reserve as they tighten their monetary policy will have effects on the markets.
    • Premiums for physical silver have stabilized at their lowest levels in four years, making it an opportune time to accumulate gold and silver due to the current global uncertainties and potential bank downgrades.
    • The move away from the dollar and the lack of trust in governments is increasing the importance of gold and silver as assets with no counterparty risk.
  • 11:59 Premiums and demand for silver will rise as banks face potential failures and bail-ins, leading people to seek alternative investment options with higher returns.
    • Premiums and demand for silver will rise as banks face potential failures and bail-ins, leading people to seek alternative investment options with higher returns.
    • If banks continue to control money through inflation and deflation, they will eventually own everything, as evidenced by the current situation where people have loaded up on assets using debt and low rates, but when things slow down and rates rise, banks collapse, people leave for safer options, and small businesses and companies fail.
    • As job losses increase and interest rates rise, there is a potential for a significant economic collapse, leading to defaults and banks owning assets at low prices.
  • 15:49 The current environment of rising interest rates and potential currency devaluation is causing the value of gold and silver to increase as a form of wealth and protection, with the probability of banks and the economy deteriorating and gold and silver prices being suppressed.
    • The current environment of higher interest rates, rising rates, and the possibility of countries moving away from the dollar due to massive deficits and dwindling tax receipts is causing the value of gold and silver to increase as they are seen as a form of wealth and protection against a potentially worthless currency.
    • Premiums and prices don’t matter, but it is important to see through the rhetoric and trust your gut, as the probability of banks, the economy, property, and the suppression of gold and silver prices accelerating is high, leading to the biggest money in the world accumulating gold and silver.
    • Big moves like the one in silver prices are slow and complex, and it’s important to pay attention to what’s happening beneath the surface rather than getting frustrated with the lack of immediate results.
  • 18:51 Metal premiums at 4-year low despite the need to buy; banks downgraded, highlighting the importance of protecting against potential dollar collapse.
    • The union of the Eurasian economic Union and the Shanghai cooperation organization joining together with the bricks will form a strong alliance, as seen with India trading oil with Abu Dhabi for rupee instead of dollars.
    • Metal premiums are currently at their lowest in four years, despite the fact that everyone should be buying it to own a piece of it in their portfolio.
    • Banks are being downgraded and there is a risk of failure, so it is important to protect oneself against a potential dollar collapse.
  • 21:43 Rising interest rates could have a devastating impact on markets and businesses, emphasizing the importance of investing in gold and silver as a safe haven; junk silver supply is becoming harder to find, but now is a good time to buy with low premiums and availability, as obtaining pre-65 silver will become increasingly difficult in the future.
    • The rising interest rates could have a devastating impact on the real estate and bond markets, as well as on businesses’ ability to access cash and operate.
    • Schectman expresses concern about the future of the country and emphasizes the importance of investing in gold and silver as a safe haven in a world that is becoming increasingly chaotic.
    • Junk silver supply is becoming increasingly harder to find, although it is available in limited quantities.
    • During the bank failures in March and April, there was a high demand for silver, but now the premiums have come down and it is available, although not plentiful, making it a good time to buy with the lowest premiums and best availability.
    • Premiums on pre-65 silver have reached double digits in the past, and with the passing of laws in various states allowing legal tender coins to be used for all debts, obtaining pre-65 silver will become increasingly difficult, but the public will only truly wake up to the importance of silver when faced with a bank bail-in.
  • 26:54 Silver premiums are currently low and there is great availability, but the increasing strain on banks and concerns about the value of the dollar could lead to a reversal, making silver a good investment option.
    • Bank failures are imminent and the lack of oversight and bailouts of certain banks, such as Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, raise questions about compliance and risk management.
    • Yellen’s statement about the money markets investing in the overnight reverse repo Market, along with the increasing strain on banks, suggests that there will be a bank bail in, leading to changes in availability and premiums, and making silver a good proxy for market demand.
    • Silver premiums are low and there is great value and availability, but the fragile environment could lead to a reversal and the likelihood of events causing this is increasing.
    • Premiums on silver are determined by supply and demand, with the current fear of the value of the dollar driving up the premium on junk silver due to its utility as a trading and bartering tool.
    • The high premiums on junk silver reflect the strong demand for it due to people’s concern about the stability of the US dollar and the limited supply of junk silver available.
    • Silver premiums were high in the past four years due to concerns about the world, but currently, prices and availability are attractive, indicating that people have short memories.
  • 32:45 Silver premiums are currently low as banks get downgraded again, making it a good time to add to your silver stack, but there are concerns about other events happening in the world.
    • Silver premiums are currently low, making it a good time to add to your silver stack, with various silver products available for immediate delivery.
    • Prices for various items are currently low compared to previous years, and it is a good time to make purchases, but there are concerns about bank downgrades and other events happening in the world.
    • Silver premiums are low as banks get downgraded again, and the speaker predicts that the fall and the next 14 months leading up to the election will be interesting in the industry.
    • BlackRock has made progress this year with their gold, silver, and lithium projects, and they have partnered with tierlack resources for the drilling and development of their lithium deposit in Tonopah North.

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