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Top Three Videos – May 10, 2024

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David Rosenberg: Bad Data & Bad Policy Will Force Fed To Scramble To Cut Rates (May 7, 2024)

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 

The US economy is slowing down and the Fed may be forced to cut rates, leading investors to consider investing in Europe and Japan for better valuations and secular tailwinds.

 

Economic indicators and data analysis

 
  • The US economy saw its GDP growth throttle back to 1.6% in the first quarter, signaling a cooling off.
  • “Business insolvencies are up 35% over the past year, corporate insolvency is up 35% and the gross business formation is down 5% over the past year.”
  • The current government data on income is overstating income by $650 billion and 800,000 to a million jobs, leading to flawed policy decisions.
  • “You can’t read that beige book and come to the conclusion that this is a 3% growth economy. Not a snow snowballs chance in hell.”
  • The biggest culprit is auto insurance, which is up 22% and that’s a lag response to the massive increase in claims.
  • David Rosenberg’s “Rosy’s dozen rules to remember” for economic forecasting and tying in macro and markets is a valuable insight from his mentor Bob Ferrell.
     

Federal Reserve policy and interest rates

 
  • Bad data and bad policy will force the Fed to scramble to cut rates.
  • The Fed is looking at lagging and flawed data when it comes to the job market, forcing them to scramble to cut rates.
  • The FED is too focused on data with a wide error term, and there’s a concern that they will be scrambling to cut rates in a different market and macro circumstance.
  • 100% of the time in the past, when the FED has tightened past the point of yield curve inversion, a recession has occurred.
  • The Fed will be cutting rates, and there will be a yield curve in the next year that’s going to be a lot lower and steeper.
  • Not priced in sufficiently is the Fed cutting rates more aggressively than was priced in, with a lot of cyclical forces at play that will take inflation down quite a bit.
     

Global market opportunities and valuations

 
  • Japan’s pressure from regulators on the corporate sector to remove idle cash and return it to shareholders is leading to alluring dividends and buybacks.
  • There are other areas of the world that have better valuations and better tailwinds, providing potential opportunities for investors.

Peter Zeihan: America's Nuclear Supply Chain (Ditching Russian Uranium) (May 7, 2024)...

Zeihan on Geopolitics...

Summary

 

The US is facing a national security challenge due to its heavy reliance on Russian uranium for its nuclear supply chain, and it needs to invest in rebuilding and modernizing its own nuclear infrastructure.

 

  • The Russians are responsible for nearly half of the global market in uranium, posing a significant challenge to the US nuclear supply chain.
  • Rebuilding the enrichment system at the civilian level is a national security issue for the US.
  • The global nuclear supply chain is heavily reliant on Russian uranium, posing a potential risk to national security.
  • The aging nuclear infrastructure in the US highlights the urgent need for investment and modernization in the industry.
  • The US will be getting help from Canada and Australia to build out their own nuclear supply systems for similar reasons.

Eric Sprott: Today's Key Factors Influencing Tomorrow's Precious Metals Market (May 8, 2024)...

Sprott Money...

Summary

 

Investing in physical gold and silver is important for sheltering against market volatility and potential economic and political turmoil, with potential for significant gains in the precious metals market.

 
  • India’s massive purchases of 70 million ounces of silver in a month, followed by another 35-40 million ounces, significantly impacted the precious metals market.
  • The legacy of zero interest rates and constant juicing of the system by central banks and governments could lead to some nasty consequences in the near future.
  • There’s a huge silver shortage, with a shortfall of 215 million ounces, and the demand is higher than the flawed data suggests.
  • The short position on the comx is about 800 million ounces, and the price going up means potential losses of $800 million for the commercials.
  • The relationship of gold to silver should not be 86 to one, implying a massive move in one versus the other, and Sprott believes the fundamentals for the silver market are better than the gold market.
  • The US is running $2 trillion annual deficits, with the existing debt being serviced at $2 million a minute, leading to a potential financial crisis.
  • If silver goes to 50 or gold goes to 3,000, the stock market may not hold together and the government may face financial issues.
  • The focus should shift from big institutions to smaller producers like Theo Eagles and Mo midsized producers for production and profit growth in the precious metals market.

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