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Top Three Videos – June 14, 2024

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Vince Lanci: What We Learned From Yesterday's Fed Meeting (June 13, 2024)

Arcadia Economics...

Summary

 

The Fed’s potential rate cut in September could lead to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices, while geopolitical tensions and trade war risks are important factors for market reaction.

 

  • Treasuries are expected to be on a rate cut path, leading to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices.
  • The rally in risk assets following the soft CPI ignited a risk-on rally, dragging stocks, bonds, gold, silver, and copper higher.
  • “This is Russia wants information out there and they’re getting it out there and the West keeps ignoring it. But it’s true okay so moving on from that.”
  • The market will start to discount treasuries being bought, leading to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices.
  • “If China makes a better product than let’s say BMW right. Then China is going to uh sell more of those products and uh if the European Union puts a tariff on those products raising the price then people won’t buy them anymore they’ll buy domestically.”

Ronnie Stoeferle: Why You Better Learn The “New Rules” to Survive Financially (June 11, 2024)...

ITM Trading...

Summary

 

The global economy is shifting, and investors need to adapt to new rules and opportunities in order to succeed.

 

  • “We are playing a chess match but with new rules.”
  • China’s influence on the global economy is growing, with 70% of physical demand now coming from China, India, and the Middle East.
  • Gold has been up 70% since the Euro was launched, raising questions about the success of the currency.
  • Government bonds are no longer the portfolio foundation they have been for years, with gold potentially filling that role.
  • “The biggest takeaway is that the game of investing is just getting rougher and a new era is upon us, we have to wake up and learn how to play this new game of chess.”
  • “Let’s take the emotion out of it, let’s just crunch the numbers.”
  • There are significant opportunities in emerging markets and Europe, no need to chase US tech stocks anymore.

Axel Merk: Did Yesterday's Fed Guidance Actually Change Anything? (June 13, 2024)

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 

The Fed’s ad hoc decision-making and change in attitude towards inflation are impacting the market and financial conditions, leading to a higher cost of doing business and a need for sound fiscal and monetary policies.

 
  • The Fed’s decisions are made on an ad hoc basis without a guiding set of principles or framework, leading to a flawed institutional setup.
  • Powell took pains to change his language on inflation, indicating that the Fed believes they are making real progress on it.
  • The market was expecting six to seven rate cuts in 2024, but now the Fed has downshifted to only one, causing the market to jump.
  • The market behavior changed in October, not December, due to the Fed pivot, impacting the forward-looking nature of the markets.
  • The change in attitude by policymakers is affecting financial conditions, making credit more readily available, which can help credit-dependent businesses.
  • The new state of geopolitics leads to a higher inflation environment, not necessarily high inflation, but a higher cost of doing business.
  • “It sure as heck got a lot worse postco but people’s cost of living was going up way more than the reported CPI year after year.”
  • “He’s working to bring it to 2%. They’re still going to have inflation um and then I I I thought this was this was um you know curiously um accurate and he said in the meantime it’s going to be painful.”
  • “You need sound fiscal policy, sustainable fiscal policy, sound monetary policy, stable prices, and sound institutions, and on each one of these buckets we have seen in the US but also globally a significant deterioration.”

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