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Top Ten Videos – July 15, 2024

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Tavi Costa: Stocks At ‘1929’ Peak; 'Storm' About To Hit, Force Fed Capitulation (July 13, 2024)

David Lin...

Summary

 

Investors should consider investing in real assets and commodities, such as gold, silver, and copper, as the equity markets are at high risk and potential interest rate cuts and global economic shifts are signaling a recession.

 

Global market trends and potential impacts

 
  • The divergence of US Equity markets versus other places in the world is a big theme in the macro side that will be the next narrative.
  • A steepener will happen just because that’s what tends to occur after a deeply inverted yield curve particularly at a time when we’ve had as inverted of a period as we’ve seen in history.
  • The need for the Y Cur to actually steepen emphasizes the potential for a world where Trump wins and tries to cut taxes and spend even more.
  • The Dow Jones and S&P are at the same levels as the very peak of 1929, indicating extreme overvaluation and potential risk in the equity markets.
  • China is facing its own japanification moment in terms of what happened after the bubble, and it’s in desperate need to improve the quality of its Reserve in order to preserve the stability of its monetary system.
  • The ultimate factor that causes the mining industry to rise has to be on the back of very strong metal prices.
  • The potential for a major breakout in the gold mining industry could lead to a significant shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish, driving prices higher.
     

Economic indicators and recession predictions

 
  • Tavi Costa makes the case for why recession indicators are stronger than ever, and the economy is deteriorating fast, supported by a report from City Bank.
  • Today’s suppression of volatility is characteristic of what we often see before a recession, commonly referred to as the calm before the storm.
  • The FED is facing a stagflationary environment with inflation deeply embedded in the economy, but cracks are starting to show in labor markets and the economy itself.
  • The divergence of small companies relative to NASDAQ and others is a sign of potential recessionary issues.
  • Financial repression along with inflation staying higher for longer is probably one of the most important macro thematic ideas for the coming decade.
     

Federal Reserve and interest rate impact

 
  • The shift in interest rate expectations may lead to panic and force the Fed to start cutting rates, potentially causing a recession.
  • “Interest payments are close to 4% of GDP now and so I think that’s going to become the fed’s Mandate forget about inflation forget about Labor markets.”
  • “They’re calling for the First Rate cut to start in September and subsequent rate cuts.”
 

Michael Pento: Stocks "Running On Fumes", Risk Of A 30-80% Crash (July 14, 2024)

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 

The stock market is at risk of a 30-80% crash and is currently the most overvalued in history, posing a significant risk to investors.

 

Market Bubble and Crash Concerns

 
  • The stock market is a facade of prosperity, with the broader market represented by the Russell 2000 unchanged this year and down 10% since the end of 2021.
  • Negative real interest rates lead to excessive borrowing and investment in stocks, commodities, and real estate, creating a bubble that could burst.
  • The risk of a 30-80% crash in stocks is a real concern, especially with the current state of the financial system.
  • The stock market may be “running on fumes” and at risk of a 30-80% crash, making it a risky time for investors.
  • “This is the most overvalued stock Market in history by a lot.”
  • Valuations are horrible short-term indicators but very robust indicators of long-term returns, and we have never been higher on those metrics that matter.
  • US Stocks are categorically more overvalued broadly speaking than at any time in history, similar to the peak of 1928 and the tech bubble, which were horrible times to be invested.
     

Economic and Financial System Risks

 
  • “We’ve wiped out the bottom four quintiles of the American Consumer.”
  • The financial system would meltdown if we let natural market forces have their way, causing widespread pain and a deep recession.
  • “You’re not talking about a recession. You’re talking about a depression.”
  • The potential for recession seems likely as negative real interest rates fuel asset bubbles and the Fed’s tightening of monetary fuel leads to a contraction in money supply.
  • The distortions in the job market created by Covid continue to ripple through the BLS’s models, making it hard for them to predict accurately.
     

Impact of Negative Real Interest Rates

 
  • The bond market would start saying, “I don’t think you’re ever going to get inflation under control and therefore I’m demanding a higher return for borrowing.”
  • Pento emphasizes the importance of being positioned in the right sectors to protect and profit from the inflation boom-bust cycle.

David Morgan: Financial Blow Up: Little Time Left Before Wheels Come Off System (July 12, 2024)

ITM Trading...

Summary

 

The global financial system is approaching its end due to unsustainable debt, leading to potential extreme market movements and a rush in the silver market.

 

  • The system is at a point where it’s mathematically impossible to ever pay back the debt.
  • David Morgan predicts a rush in the silver market due to a demand or short squeeze, making it inevitable at some point.
  • The dollar and gold will go up at the same time near the end, as gold is superior to the dollar.
  • The uncertainty in the market can lead to extreme movements, especially near the end, creating a potential financial blow-up.
  • The US dollar, along with other major currencies, is ultimately a ticket value for energy, making energy control a crucial factor in the global financial system.
  • The deficit is projected to reach 100 trillion by 2050, a trajectory that is clearly unsustainable.
  • The system is approaching its end as debt compounds and becomes unpayable, with bankers creating principle for nothing and selling it back to the government at a profit.
  • “We’re in a position…We don’t have a lot of time left.”

 

JP Sears: His First Interview After the Debate (July 9, 2024)

AwakenwithJP...

Summary

 

The President’s poor debate performance is attributed to feeling sick, but he denies having a virus despite admitting to having a bad cold.

Yvonne Blaszczyk: Gold's Changing Role Globally (July 14, 2024)

GoldSeek Radio...

Summary

 

Gold’s role in the global economy is evolving and growing in importance due to geopolitical tensions, central bank developments, and the shift of influence from west to east.

 

  • Geopolitical conflicts are related to Central Bank buying, which will have a profound impact on gold prices and the Western Financial systems.
  • The reinstatement of the gold standard could have a pivotal effect on the role of gold in the financial system, becoming more evident in the next couple of years.
  • The sanctions are pushing the envelope on gold to become more significant than it ever was before in history.
  • Gold is already money and has been for 5,000 years, suggesting a potential shift towards gold becoming a cornerstone of the world’s monetary system.
  • Safe haven assets like gold are in demand globally, not just in North America, due to the need to preserve wealth and protect against economic uncertainty.
  • Gold is the most enduring element of our financial and economic existence.
  • Gold’s pivotal role in the global economy and financial systems makes it a critical asset for the future.
  • Central banks are stacking up gold because they know it will be a major factor in a successful and profitable existence, despite all the variables in the marketplace.
 

Doomberg: IMPORTANT Warning To Gold Buyers (July 49, 2024)

CapitalCOSM...

Summary

 

Gold is slowly returning to its rightful role as the neutral reserve asset for the settlement of international trade imbalances.

 

Geopolitical Implications of Gold and Energy

 
  • “Gold is slowly returning to its rightful role as the neutral Reserve asset for the settlement of international trade imbalances.”
  • The expected value probability of World War III times the consequences is factored into the risk-adjusted premium for oil, with the potential for prices to reach $150 or even $200 per barrel in the event of a major conflict.
  • Gold is slowly returning to its rightful role as the neutral reserve asset for the settlement of international trade imbalances.
  • The physical gold exchange window in Shanghai is trading at a significant premium to the paper price of gold in London and New York, indicating a potential imbalance in the gold market.
  • The idea that “competency, bubble, social pressure, and momentum” are the causes of persistently dumb decisions in corporate leadership is a thought-provoking insight.
  • “I hold gold because it has a 5,000 year track record of being an excellent preservation of value.”
  • The West needs to go back to basics and have a real understanding of the physics of energy to avoid geopolitical weakness.
     

Economic and Social Impact of AI and Technology

 
  • Electricity is worth way more than we pay for it, and AI is going to see a bunch of poor people out and it’s going to get ugly.
  • AI’s ability to afford higher energy prices will lead to the crowding out of Bitcoin Miners and white-collar jobs, creating economic inequality.
  • The key to success is not just money, but the sweat equity, time, effort, and love put into a project.

John Rubino: It's Time To Bail On The System (July 12, 2024)

Liberty and Finance...

Summary

 

The financial system is unfixable and facing a potential major crisis in the near future, leading to instability and the potential for higher precious metals prices as a safe investment.

 

Global Financial Instability and Crisis

 
  • The bigger picture is much scarier than just a potential recession in the year ahead.
  • Financial analysts have their own favorite indicators that they believe have predictive value for a recession, and currently, there are a significant number pointing in that direction.
  • A recession is normal, but the fragility of the financial system could lead to something much more serious than a typical economic downturn.
  • The “everything bubble” is not just one bubble, but a bunch bursting either sequentially or all at once, creating the conditions for a major crisis in the next year or two.
  • The financial system is unfixable, with $2 trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see.
  • The financial system is the thing that is going to break regardless of what happens, as the crisis is still waiting to happen.
  • The world is facing a crisis of over-borrowing and artificially low interest rates, leading to financial instability for both governments and individuals.
  • Virtually no major government has avoided financial problems, with rising interest rates or crashing currencies as the only options going forward.
     

Investment Strategies and Precious Metals

 
  • Precious metals are a very attractive conceptual investment with the amount of money and bad debt in the world.
  • The unfixable financial system may lead to higher precious metals prices as people seek to hide out when things look broken beyond repair.

Peter Krauth: How Silver is Outperforming Everything (July 12, 2024)

VRIC Media...

Summary

 

Silver prices have been rising significantly and are expected to continue to rise due to a forecasted deficit in supply, increased demand in high-tech applications, and potential weakening of the US dollar, making it an attractive investment option.

 

Silver Market Performance

 
  • Silver prices have risen quite considerably from about $23 to 31 as of today.
  • Silver has been the best performing asset year to date, outperforming various government and corporate bonds, the NASDAQ, the S&P 500, and even gold.
  • The forecast for this year is a 215 million ounce deficit, which is over 20% of the entire supply, both mining and recycling combined.
  • Silver stocks can leverage the success of silver, potentially at least two to one, presenting a significant opportunity for investors to take advantage of.
  • The demand for silver in solar panels has exploded, with a 64% growth in the amount of silver used, and a forecasted 20% growth this year.
  • Silver’s high-tech applications, such as silver nanowires, are leading to increased demand that we can’t even fathom right now.
  • The ongoing structural deficits in silver have led to a cumulative deficit of around 700 million ounces over the last four years, which is 70% of one year’s production deficit.
  • Silver is outperforming gold and Bitcoin, making it a high beta play on gold.
     

Geopolitical and Economic Factors

 
  • The rise of the bricks and the end of the Petro dollar system could weaken the US dollar, playing into the hands of gold and silver as a dollarization play.
  • Silver is outperforming everything, making it an attractive option for those concerned about the dollar’s status as the world’s Reserve currency.
  • Countries like China, Russia, and Iran are looking to trade with each other in currencies other than the dollar, moving away from being boxed into trading in dollars.
     

Potential Future Price and Growth

 
  • The silver squeeze moment could happen within 9 to 12 months, potentially causing a surge in silver prices.
  • Silver price could reach $35 by the end of the year, with potential to go even higher.
  • The analysis consistently points to a silver price between $280 and $330, indicating potential for significant growth in the future.
 

Dave Skarica: Is the 1929/1987 Pattern Still in Play? Mag 7 Stocks Surge! Newfoundgold Looks to Have Bottomed! (July 11, 2024)

StockChartoftheDay...

Summary

 

The stock market is showing similarities to the 1929 and 1987 patterns, with concerns about potential overextension and the possibility of a market correction.

 

  • The market is showing similarities to the 1929 and 1987 patterns, with potential for a parabolic blowoff and continued upward movement.
  • The crash in 1987 was really a three to four day event, with the market falling hard on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday before completely falling apart on Monday.
  • The market itself, the RSI on the S&P or the NASDAQ right now is something like 80, which is unheard of for a major index.
  • “60% of people, especially Gen Zers, are in the market starting at an age of like in their early 20s where Gen. Xers and Baby Boomers mostly started in their mid ities at that point.”
  • Newfound gold has been struggling recently, but it has the potential to be a great investment opportunity.
  • Newfound gold has a large market cap of over 700 million, making it a potentially lucrative investment opportunity.

Keith Weiner: The Moonshot That The Metals Have Been Waiting For (July 12, 2024)

Pallisades Gold Radio...

Summary

 

Gold and silver are still valuable monetary metals, and there is potential for higher prices and a shift to a bull market, with a focus on the importance of a gold standard and the potential for investment in gold and silver production.

 

  • The fundamental price in Gold is about $2,700, considerably above the market price, indicating a potential upward trend.
  • “You can never ever confuse a promise with the thing being promised.”
  • Falling interest rates means rising asset prices, leading to a forever bull market and conversion of wealth into income.
  • The system is perversely incentivizing the consumption of capital, leading to perverse behaviors and outcomes.
  • Inflation is defined as the process of counterfeiting credit, leading to fraudulent debt instruments accepted as money.
  • Keith Weiner challenges the mainstream view of inflation, arguing that different sources of increasing quantity of money should not be defined as the same thing.
  • In a free market, profit is only obtained by creating value for others, not by positioning oneself for incentives or subsidies.
  • Gold becomes a serious Financial system asset with a yield, which is the whole point of reintroducing it.

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