The global economy is expected to face significant challenges leading to a potential recession by 2028, influenced by geopolitical tensions, market declines, and shifting alliances, before a predicted recovery and economic boom starting in 2025.
Economic Outlook
In 2025, a weak global economy for 6-9 months will be followed by a 2-year boom in equities, business activity, and commodity markets due to fiscal and monetary stimuli, potentially leading to rolling recessions or depressions.
The revised employment data from the BLS in February 2025 will show a sharp downward revision, with the Philly Fed’s assessment indicating a decrease of 800,000 from the original 1.1% figure.
Geopolitical Dynamics
The “Powers behind the throne” in Washington are desperate for Trump to have a big war to dismember Russia and gain control of its natural resources, while Trump aims to prevent war escalation.
By 2035, China’s military will have 435-475 ships compared to the U.S.’s 305-317, indicating a significant military buildup and potential threat to Taiwan.
Global Alliances
The BRICS alliance faces challenges in 2025, with the U.S. aiming to break it up by weakening Brazil’s resolve and preventing the development of strong institutions and a rival currency to the U.S. dollar.
India is quietly strengthening ties with Russia and China, despite playing both sides, and may face challenges from the U.S. trying to break its ties with BRICS, potentially causing problems in Bangladesh.