The gold market is experiencing a systemic crisis due to accelerating stand for deliveries on COMEX, with over 2,200 tons of gold stood for delivery in the first month and two days of 2025, resulting in a huge shortage of physical gold.
Despite a fall in outstanding contracts on COMEX, the gold price is rising, indicating a serious move in the market and highlighting the unpreparedness of credit markets for this shift.
Western investing public shows minimal interest in physical gold possession or mining stocks, while demand is focused on Asia and associated nations, particularly in the global South.
The realization of gold possession importance has broadened globally following NATO’s attempt to cut off Russia from Western financial markets by seizing its bank reserves in 2022.
The purchasing power of the dollar measured in gold has declined by over 25% in 2024, potentially signaling a crisis in Western markets due to unfulfillable credit system gold commitments.
The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to rise through 5% quickly and then to 10%, potentially causing an equity market crash as the largest credit bubble in history deflates.
Gold ETF investors face the risk of confiscation without permission during a market meltdown, as the central counterparty has a prior lien on the gold from issuers.
The mining sector has been neglected by big brokers focusing on cryptos and NASDAQ stocks, creating a potential opportunity as gold prices rise and interest in mining stocks increases.
California secession would eliminate 56 Democratic representatives in Congress, potentially shifting the US political landscape towards free markets, fiscal restraint, and public safety.
Californians would become foreign nationals in other states, potentially reducing the spread of California’s political ideologies to new locations.
Without California’s influence, the US could implement reforms to ensure only self-sufficient migrants receive benefits, potentially reducing strain on taxpayers.
The growing US debt (approaching $50 trillion) may make secession more attractive as Americans seek alternative institutions for livelihoods, pensions, and social services.
The US is already heavily divided, with regional contempt and a 50% popular vote for Trump in 2016, suggesting secession may be inevitable as federal patronage systems falter.
Tariffs theoretically aim to boost domestic production and create high-paying jobs, but in practice often reduce overall goods and services availability, potentially hurting consumers.
The key question with tariffs is whether they result in more or less goods and services in various timeframes, with the answer usually being less, making them a cost-benefit analysis.
Reducing regulations, bureaucracy, and red tape is more crucial than tariffs for boosting US manufacturing competitiveness, as seen in Argentina’s stifled production despite potential advantages.
Money supply growth decline, credit card delinquencies, and yield curve inversion are indicators of potential recession, with 90% probability since the 1950s.
Bank lending creates new money and increases money supply, while loan payoffs reduce it; more loans than payoffs indicate a growing money supply and economic activity.
The Chinese real estate market, the largest asset class globally at $60T, suffered a 30% decline, wiping out $20T of purchasing power, equivalent to almost annual US GDP.
Top investors like Soros, Buffett, and Druckenmiller share traits: expert risk management, having an edge, and making asymmetric bets with low downside and high upside potential.
Kenny Mroy, managing $1.5B in 10,000 doors, seeks asymmetric opportunities by buying distressed assets below replacement cost from over-leveraged 2020-2021 investors.
Dollar-denominated assets may attract massive capital as global economies contract, with investors selling local currencies to buy dollars and invest in the US stock market.
Global interconnectedness of economies, monetary systems, and supply chains means a recession in one major economy is likely to impact others, with China currently experiencing a deflationary GFC.
Weaponizing the dollar incentivizes countries to seek alternatives, while tariffs weaponize the American consumer, both strategies having tradeoffs and requiring cost-benefit analyses.
To gain a significant edge, investors should thoroughly analyze investments by being able to argue the opposite side of the debate as well as, if not better than, those they disagree with.
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