A major bear market trend is expected to emerge, exposing economic failures and past errors, particularly in commercial real estate which has been “whacked 2%” while the market is at new highs.
The corporate debt crisis is a built-in mathematical certainty, with a “debt maturity wall” approaching as close to a trillion dollars of debt requires re-rating in the next two years.
A substantial market correction is anticipated, potentially as deep as an 80% wipeout like in 1929-1932, beginning with a crash followed by a partial recovery before a slow two-year decline.
The Fed rate cuts in 2007, which were not anticipated, led to a new market high in mid-October before reality hit, resulting in a two-year downturn.
The consumer debt crisis is a “triple whammy” for the US economy, with student loan delinquencies spiking to almost 1 in 3 due to ending forbearance programs.
The national debt crisis is a “four-decade error compounding”, with the T-bond market showing a “chart of failed attempts” to rally, indicating a potential government debt market crash.
The “fourth turning” concept suggests institutions will be replaced due to failure, consistent with predictions of a crisis unlike any other leading to institutional changes.
The AI bubble is showing signs of a bear market, with only Nvidia and Microsoft among the “MAG 7” leaders still making new highs.
The Bloomberg commodity index has been sideways for over two years, with a potential breakout if closing above 10655, while the ratio of stocks to commodities is at all-time lows.
Precious metals are expected to see a different bull market, with predictions of gold potentially reaching $8,000 and silver $100 by year-end.
The dollar index is predicted to be a “disaster waiting to happen”, having dropped 7% since March and expected to easily drop from the 90s into the 70s.
Bitcoin is viewed as a “coincident mover” with the NASDAQ 100, not moving like gold or an alternative currency, with a potential “pending crash structure” and trigger number of about $92,000 for the next quarter.
The Trump administration’s economic policies are described as “socialist/fascist intervention” in free trade, with tariffs being taxes on international transactions.
An income tax crisis is identified as a “dysfunctionality” in government revenue, potentially leading to the abolition of income taxes and reversion to a national sales tax.
New York City’s Democratic Socialist mayor-elect Zoran Mambdani proposes radical policies including universal child care, free buses, city-wide rent freeze, city-run grocery stores, and a $13 minimum wage, while cracking down on gig work that supports 1.8 million New Yorkers.
An Oxford economics poll estimates 15,000 hospitality and construction jobs will be eliminated in Los Angeles, costing over half a billion dollars, due to the city’s new $30 minimum wage for hotel and airport workers.
Mambdani plans to raise the top income tax to nearly 17% and impose an 11.5% corporate tax, potentially driving wealthy individuals to Miami and Dallas and corporations to Miami, Dallas, or China.
A “doom loop” of collapsing tax revenue, growing left-wing NGOs and teachers unions, and middle-class exodus due to deteriorating city services and high taxes could lead to urban decay.
The proposed $13 universal minimum wage and crackdown on gig work could negatively impact low-wage workers and the 1.8 million New Yorkers who rely on gig economy jobs.
Israel initiated targeted strikes against Iran’s nuclear program in June 2025, with the US joining in a multi-day campaign dropping 14 massive ordinance penetrators, including 12 on Fordo.
The Israeli strategy of “mowing the lawn” in Iran aims to delay and prevent reconstitution of Iran’s ballistic missile program and nuclear capabilities, buying time for potential long-term solutions.
Israel’s decision to attack was based on Iran’s advancing nuclear program and its weakened ability to retaliate, with many proxies decimated and air defenses neutralized.
The US joining Israel’s attack on Iran was a surprise to many in Washington, with some viewing it as a strategic overreach that could undermine American security and credibility.
Iran’s nuclear program had been paused since 2003 but continued enriching uranium to 60%, enough for 9 nuclear bombs, according to Dmitri Alperovitch.
The IRGC maintains influence in Iraq and Yemen through money, weapons, and technologies like ballistic missile programs, which will persist as long as this assistance continues.
Israel’s retaliation assessment was surprisingly positive, with only dozens of deaths, hundreds wounded, and $1 billion in estimated damage, achieving complete dominance of Iranian airspace within 48 hours.
The Iranian regime’s response to US-Israeli attacks has been “pathetic”, with limited retaliation against US bases and tenuous influence over weakened proxies in Iraq and Yemen.
The Ayatollah’s decision to make a deal with the US depends on his paranoid state of mind and isolation, as he’s unreachable by electronic communications and only uses couriers.
The risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not directly related to US-Israeli attacks on Iran, but US actions may compel rather than deter such an invasion, according to Alperovitch.
The US-Israeli attacks on Iran alter security dynamics in the Middle East, affecting perceptions of regional players like Saudi Arabia and Gulf States.
Israel’s strategy aims to weaken the Iranian regime and expose it as a “paper tiger”, potentially leading to the emergence of a moderate government in Iran.
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