Ryan McMaken of the Mises Institute argues the Fed’s claim that policy is “restrictive” is contradicted by data showing the money supply grew $1 trillion in seven months from July 2025 to February 2026, with total money supply now at $20 trillion—a third of which was created just since 2020—and growth rates at 44-month highs. He contends the Fed’s de facto inflation target has shifted from 2% to 3% as price inflation runs near 2.93% with PCE measures heading toward 3%, while Q4 GDP came in at 0.5% (revised down from 1.5-2.5% projections), job growth is essentially flat, and consumer confidence sits at multi-decade lows. McMaken draws a Suez Crisis parallel for the dollar (where the 1956 crisis accelerated sterling’s decline as global reserve currency), predicts Trump will leave office “as one of the most unpopular presidents of all time,” and forecasts not a sudden time bomb but a slow unraveling as zombie companies and bubble sectors pop without dramatic monetary contraction.
Money supply explosion ignored by narrative: A trillion dollars created in seven months brings total money supply to $20 trillion, with one-third of all dollars in American history created just since 2020. Holders of dollars have lost 25% of their purchasing power since 2020 and “you’re never getting that back” unless deflation is allowed, which the Fed clearly will not permit.
Suez Crisis as dollar analogy: McMaken compares the US position in Iran to the UK’s 1956 Suez moment when Eisenhower refused to support sterling, accelerating its decline as global reserve currency. With BRICS countries trading in Chinese and Iranian currencies plus US war spending requirements, the dollar’s reserve status faces similar pressure that took years to fully unravel for sterling.
Bifurcated economy and zombie companies: Endlessly falling interest rates since 2008-2009 created zombie companies that survive by rolling over old debt at low rates rather than innovating, while a bifurcated economy benefits asset-owning older Americans even as younger people entering the job market find “nothing out there for you in terms of new hires.” Powell admits 2026 begins with functionally 0% job growth in a “no hire, no fire” economy.
Fed-Treasury fiscal dominance: Six months into the fiscal year, the deficit already hits $1.6 trillion with inflation-adjusted spending at all-time highs despite Trump’s DOGE promises, forcing the Fed to buy more treasuries with newly printed money to suppress yields. McMaken dismisses Kevin Warsh’s plan to shift toward “Treasury QE” with smaller Fed footprint as the same unwinding promise made repeatedly since 2009 that never happens.
Stock market as liquidity reflection, not economic indicator: McMaken cites Zimbabwe’s hyperinflationary stock market boom to illustrate that rising stock prices reflect dollar creation rather than economic health, with cyclically adjusted PE at 39 and Palantir at 300 P/E. He warns younger Americans face significant employment trouble while asset-owning older demographics keep aggregate numbers looking fine.
Michael Howell argues global liquidity is rolling over after a period of abundance, but the world economy has shaken off the Iran shock far better than expected—nothing like the 2020 COVID shock and probably smaller than the 2024 tariff tantrum—with the ISM new orders minus inventories indicator and Philly Fed showing strong momentum and cyclicals strongly outperforming defensives in MSCI World. He contends a subtle but critical shift is underway from Fed QE to “Treasury QE” with nearly 90% of US debt issuance now under two years (which Stanley Druckenmiller compares to Latin American fiscal economics), while applying a gold-to-oil ratio of 20x suggests $5,000 gold mathematically implies $250 oil—forcing one of those three assumptions to break, with oil being the softest. Howell reveals China is doing a Japan-style internal yuan devaluation through PBOC liquidity injections of about $1 trillion in the last 12 months, with gold in yuan moving in 5,000-yuan steps, and explains the Treasury and Fed have injected approximately $600 billion via buybacks and reserve management purchases to suppress MOVE index volatility and stabilize the bond market.
Treasury QE replacing Fed QE: Nearly 90% of all US debt issuance is now under two years, which Druckenmiller calls “the fiscal economics of Latin America, not the US.” Howell shows this Treasury QE black area accelerating into 2026 lines up with the US PMI, explaining why the US economy looks robust while inflation pressures rise.
Gold-oil ratio math: The 20x gold-to-oil ratio held in 1970 ($35 gold, ~$2 oil), 1990 ($400 gold, $20 oil), and 2022 ($2,000 gold, $100 oil), and historically adjusts via oil rising rather than gold falling. With $5,000 gold, the math implies $250 oil—when Howell presented this to clients they called it “absolutely ridiculous,” but one of three assumptions must break.
Liquidity cycle peaks favor commodities: The 5-6 year global liquidity cycle is approaching its peak, the phase historically strong for commodities and resource stocks rather than broad equities. Howell expects a rangebound S&P this year with momentum concentrated in resource stocks.
China’s stealth yuan devaluation: PBOC has injected about $1 trillion equivalent in 12 months (versus US ~$2 trillion post-GFC), pursuing the same Japan-style debt monetization that collapsed the yen. With capital controls and crypto bans blocking outflows, the only vents are domestic stock prices and gold—gold in yuan bouncing on the 30,000 yuan level and tracking PBOC liquidity precisely.
Hidden $600 billion bond market intervention: The Treasury controls MOVE index volatility through buybacks (each 10-point MOVE increase triggering ~$30 billion in buybacks), while the Fed’s new RMP tool plus eSLR regulatory changes restored ~$600 billion in bank reserves after they plummeted 400 billion below desired levels. This is critical because hedge fund basis trades funding the federal government depend on low volatility, and 80% of global lending uses Treasuries as collateral.
Rick Rule warns that if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed another 10 days to two weeks, oil will be rationed by price rather than by threat, with spot cargo deliveries already showing $40-per-barrel premiums (cargoes to Pakistan or Australia at $145 versus alleged $95-$105 spot). Both Rule and Mark Thornton see a commodity supercycle underway driven by 30+ years of underinvestment in productive capacity, with the API and IEA showing oil sustaining capital deferred at roughly $1 billion per day even before the war. Rule details the staggering US fiscal position—$39 trillion on-balance-sheet debt, $120 trillion in unfunded entitlement liabilities per the CBO, $2.5 trillion annual deficit, against $170 trillion in aggregate private American net worth—and predicts gold will at minimum double over 10 years (potentially tripling or quadrupling) as the dollar loses purchasing power similar to the 1970s when the dollar lost 75% and gold rose 26-fold. Both recommend savers allocate 5-10% to precious metals given the current 0.5% market share versus the 40-year mean of 2%, suggesting reversion would create fourfold demand increase.
Strait closure threshold: Current oil price spikes reflect “threat of shortages” rather than actual shortages, but Rule warns 10 days to two weeks more closure produces actual rationing by price. Cargo delivered to Pakistan already trades at $145 versus alleged $95-$105 spot, showing $40 per barrel of hidden physical premium.
Three decades of underinvestment: Both guests argue the commodity supercycle stems from underinvestment in productive capacity for industrial materials going back 30 years, with the oil industry deferring sustaining capital at $1 billion daily per the API and IEA. Rule expected higher oil prices by late 2028/early 2029 regardless of war—the conflict merely accelerated the inevitable.
The math of America: $39 trillion on-balance-sheet debt plus $120 trillion CBO-acknowledged unfunded entitlements equals over $160 trillion in liabilities against $170 trillion in aggregate private American net worth, with both numbers compounding at ~$2 trillion annually. Rule predicts a “dishonest default” via inflation similar to the 1970s rather than honest Argentine-style default.
Gold price targeting via 1970s prologue: In the 1970s the dollar lost 75% of purchasing power while gold rose 26-fold; Rule suggests gold doubling over 10 years is conservative, with tripling or quadrupling plausible if gold merely maintains current purchasing power. Since 2000, gold has compounded at about 9% annually, making real estate, energy, and groceries “cheap” when measured in gold rather than dollars.
Mining industry demographic crisis: UBC geological engineering enrollment dropped from 190 first-year students in 1970 to 11 in 2024, while Colorado School of Mines has fewer than 1,000 of 8,000 students pursuing mining or oil and gas careers. Rule calls extractive industries “the easiest no-brainer for a technical student” since competition is “literally dying”—the workforce is “old, fat, bald, white”—creating massive opportunity for younger workers willing to enter the field as AI displaces
Cut through the clutter and mainstream media noise. Get free, concise dispatches on vital news, videos and opinions. Delivered to Your email inbox daily. You’ll never miss a critical story, guaranteed.