Pomboy argues the single most important recent shift is that markets have moved from pricing Fed rate cuts to pricing a possible rate hike for the first time since 2022, which she calls “Katie bar the door” for low-quality marginal credits and an existential problem for a federal government financing everything with T-bills. She contends the economy cannot handle higher rates because everyone binged on near-zero debt post-COVID, with junk borrowers who took loans at 4% now rolling at 7%-plus (effectively a doubling of debt service), and that the Warsh-Bessant plan to cut the Fed funds rate, shrink the deficit, and let long rates fall naturally has been “blown to smithereens” by the oil and inflation spike from the Iran war. She remains heavily positioned in precious metals miners and bullion plus a smaller energy stake, predicts oil retreats to $75-80 before resuming a secular bull march higher, warns the comparison Art Laffer draws to the Volcker era is dangerous because today’s debt-to-GDP and corporate leverage are vastly higher and globalization has reversed, and ultimately calls for a painful but bullish “complete monetary reset.”
The shift to expected Fed hikes: Pomboy says markets now price a modest chance of a rate hike for the first time since 2022, ending the four-year “extend and pretend” game; she notes a recent divergence where high-yield ETFs (JNK, HYG), the S&P BDC index, and a levered loan index declined on days the S&P hit new highs, which she calls a new and meaningful warning signal.
Corporate debt service doubling: Junk and marginal credits that borrowed near 4% before the hikes now pay north of 7% on average, while investment-grade borrowing costs rose roughly 60-70%; these marginal firms and stinking private credit now compete for capital against cash-rich AI hyperscalers like Meta, Google, and Microsoft that are burning free cash flow on capex.
Warsh, the “price rule,” and the Fed-Treasury accord: Pomboy explains the plan for Kevin Warsh to cut the Fed funds rate to reduce debt-service cost and shrink the deficit so long rates fall, citing Art Laffer (whom she says was the “silent architect” and salesman to Trump) drawing parallels to the 1980s Volcker-era Fed-Treasury accord; Warsh’s “price rule” means touching the balance sheet only when commodity prices move faster than they should.
Oil as a secular bull and Treasury selling pressure: She argues oil was marching higher before Iran due to AI-driven energy demand, will spike further as countries rebuild raided strategic reserves, and that May inflation comps will be worse than the “hideous” April numbers; she flags that in March, Japan sold $48 billion of Treasuries (annualizing near $600 billion against 1.1 trillion in holdings), with China and Turkey also selling to buy higher-priced oil.
Florida migration boom and the K-shaped economy: Pomboy describes West Palm Beach as “Wall Street South” with Citadel and Stephen Ross construction everywhere, condos at $4,500 a square foot with HOAs north of $10,000 a month, and no urban planning for roads or parking; on the K-shaped economy, she predicts the top comes down a lot and the bottom comes down a little in a market stumble before an eventual reset led by productivity-driven rather than financialization-driven growth.
Rule reaffirms his January call to sell most of his physical silver and rotate into silver miners, saying his silver stocks have substantially outpaced both the metal and the silver equities index, and that miners discounting $42 silver in a $75 environment offered a good speculation in any price scenario. He frames rising US 20- and 30-year yields above 5% as evidence that interest rates are “fake” and government-manipulated, and names his greatest fear as a 2008-style run on liquid high-yield ETFs that hold illiquid bonds, calling it a low-probability but catastrophic-penalty possibility. On gold he predicts the dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power over 10 years (as it did in the 1970s when gold ran 26-fold), expects a wave of consolidation as Newmont and Barrick buy miners to offset declining output, and dismisses Modi’s plea for Indians to stop buying gold as a politician lying, noting Indians “developed a distrust in government long before you had a government.” He stays bullish on oil and gas (citing $1-2 billion a day of industry underinvestment pointing to a tight 2029-2030 market) and calls uranium the biggest economic beneficiary of the Gulf conflict and a “no-brainer” via the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust and Cameco.
Silver miners over physical silver: Rule says silver was the speculative sleeve of his portfolio and “gave me everything I wanted,” with his miner picks beating the SIL index; on the day of recording (Friday, May 15), silver fell nearly 8%, First Majestic almost 9%, and Pan-American Silver around 7%, but Rule says he hadn’t even checked his Pan-American quote since he bought initial shares at 50 cents with a 75-cent warrant.
The high-yield ETF run risk: As a self-described credit analyst and banker, Rule calls today’s rates manipulated and warns his greatest fear is retail “ma and paw” investors losing confidence and liquidating liquid high-yield ETFs whose managers must then sell illiquid bonds, a circumstance he likens to 2008 while stressing he doesn’t think it’s even probable.
Gold thesis and miner consolidation: Rule predicts a 75% dollar purchasing-power decline over a decade (the 1970s saw $1,000 of goods cost $4,000 by 1980 as gold ran 26-fold), says buyers today get a “fair price for a great industry,” and forecasts heavy M&A including sideways mergers, citing Equinox’s acquisition of Orla as a prime example of producers buying output to offset underinvested exploration.
Modi, India, and silver as strategic metal: Rule reads Modi’s request that citizens refrain from buying gold for a year as politically dishonest, recounting a Gujarati gold trader who welcomed higher excise taxes (12% then) because at 2.5% smuggling cost the tax becomes margin; on silver he notes China imported its most ever in March, restricts exports through state-affiliated channels (a form of rent-seeking), and dominates solar panel production reliant on silver’s reflective properties.
Oil, gas, and the uranium “no-brainer”: Rule says anyone without oil should “get some,” citing $1-2 billion a day of sustaining-capital underinvestment that will tighten supply by 2029-2030 regardless of the war’s outcome, and prefers cheaper Canadian oil names despite Carney/Ottawa risk; he calls uranium the top beneficiary of the Gulf conflict (Japan can store five years of fuel in one warehouse), favoring the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (where he is the largest shareholder) and Cameco among roughly 15 viable companies out of 150.
Tiggre clarifies that he never called a market top in gold and silver but rather a base case of correction and consolidation before a bigger move higher (mirroring the three-year pause after the 2020 ramp), and he attacks emotional, momentum-driven investing as the thing that destroys portfolios. He argues that although current gold-miner margins of roughly $2,500-3,000 are objectively fantastic for a moat business that literally pulls money out of the ground, miners are unlikely to soar while gold goes sideways because the direction of margin change has turned negative as costs (especially diesel for remote mines now facing shortages from the oil shock) compress margins. He says CPI and PPI both beat to the upside even excluding food and energy, invokes Peter Schiff’s point that inflation is a monetary phenomenon hitting with long and variable lags, and declares stagflation is now reality (with Ray Dalio agreeing), which he calls bullish for all commodities and especially monetary metals. Most pointedly, Tiggre reveals his Independent Speculator portfolio is 80% cash, an unprecedented level for him, because he estimates roughly a 30% chance of a major 2008- or 2020-style market reversal this year and wants to be liquid to “add a zero” to his net worth the way Rick Rule did after 2008.
He did not call the top: Tiggre says his base case was always correction and consolidation before the next big move higher, not a market top, and laments that people remember their interpretation rather than what he actually said; he frames emotional anger at his analysis as a signal for the investor to examine their own decision-making.
Miner margins and direction of change: Current gold-miner margins around $2,500-3,000 are objectively great (Barrick even cut all-in sustaining costs 4% in a quarter), but Tiggre argues miners won’t soar while gold trades sideways because momentum and the negative direction of margin change override the absolute level, worsened by diesel cost spikes and shortages hitting remote diesel-generator-powered mines.
Stagflation is now reality: Both CPI and PPI beat to the upside even excluding food and energy, which Tiggre says carved out a bottom months into the Trump term and is now accelerating; citing Schiff on long-and-variable lags and Ray Dalio on stagflation, he calls it bullish for all commodities governments can’t print and especially for monetary metals, as in the 1970s.
Copper and AI’s 1,000x energy demand: Tiggre says he was right about copper (his top pick last year, now near an all-time high around $6.60/lb) but barely profited because he waited for better entry points; he cites Jensen Huang saying the world will need 1,000x (not 1,000%) more energy for AI compute, making the case bullish for uranium, copper, aluminum, and silver’s industrial side, with a multi-decade structural copper supply shortage.
Holding 80% cash for a 30% crash risk: Tiggre says he is not predicting a 2026 crash but estimates the odds of a major reversal (private credit blowing up, the AI bubble bursting, or war fallout) are elevated to roughly 30% versus a normal ~5%; his portfolio is an unprecedented 80% cash so he can “back up the truck” and add a zero to his net worth, echoing that Rick Rule’s biggest wealth accumulation came from being liquid after 2008.
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