Michael Pento argues the US sits inside an unprecedented “triumvirate of bubbles” — record credit, real estate, and equity bubbles — inflated by Jerome Powell’s $4.5 trillion post-COVID money printing plus another $193 billion injected after ending QT in December, alongside three rate cuts. He blames the Federal Reserve directly for destroying the middle class through 30% cumulative inflation since 2020, warns that with $100 trillion in total US debt every 1% rise in rates adds $1 trillion in interest expense, and predicts the 40-year bond bull market is over with yields heading much higher as foreigners refuse to fund US debt after sanctions and confiscations. He sees the bubble popping in sequence — private credit first, then private equity and junk bonds, then equities, then real estate — and is positioned between reflation and stagflation with no duration, owning commodities, energy, and only 6% gold (down from 15%) because gold needs falling real rates, which only arrive in recession.
Triumvirate of record bubbles: Total debt-to-GDP, home-price-to-income, and equity-market-cap-to-GDP ratios are all at all-time highs, well above their historical means, alongside record household equity ownership and margin debt. Pento calls this “not even my opinion — it’s just a fact” measurable by every credible metric.
Powell’s stealth QE and Trump’s pressure for more: After $4.5 trillion of post-COVID printing, Powell ended QT in December and injected $193 billion at roughly $40 billion per month while cutting rates three times, framing it as “building reserves” rather than QE. Pento notes Trump wanted Powell fired not for debasing the dollar but for not debasing it fast enough, and now hopes Kevin Warsh acts like Paul Volcker and shrinks the balance sheet to scarce reserves.
Bond market anchors collapsing globally: Japanese government bond yields hit 30-year highs, German bunds hit 15-year highs, and US Treasuries hit 19-year highs because foreigners (spooked by sanctions, confiscations, and tariff-shrunk trade surpluses) no longer want to recycle dollars into US debt. Pento argues double-digit Treasury yields are plausible — rates hit 15% in 1980, and auto-loan and credit-card delinquencies are already at financial-crisis levels with the 10-year only at 4.5%.
The AI-only economy and bubble-pop sequence: Strip out AI investment and GDP plunges; strip out AI earnings and S&P earnings growth is 4-5% rather than double digits, with AI infrastructure now funded by hundreds of billions in debt rather than cash flow. Pento expects the unwind to flow credit → private equity → junk bonds → equities → real estate, with bottom 80% of Americans already in recession while the top quintile thrives.
Positioning and the Iran/Hormuz wildcard: Pento runs a five-bucket model based on the second derivative of inflation in the context of growth and is currently between reflation and stagflation — zero duration, short-end fixed income only, long commodities, energy, and some growth. He warns inventories will be exhausted in roughly a month to a month and a half if Hormuz stays constrained, and predicts that when the inevitable recession arrives, annual deficits hit $5 trillion and the Fed monetizes trillions more, possibly alongside AI-driven universal basic income helicopter money.
Michael Oliver is calling for a new price reality in the silver market, and he thinks the metal is on the verge of breaking out and going on a rampage into the $300 to $500 range before the end of the year.
Michael dives into his thesis and explains why silver mining stocks could be the biggest beneficiary of this epic repricing event.
Paul Craig Roberts argues Trump and the Department of Justice have committed treason by issuing an edict declaring all criticism of Israel to be antisemitism, effectively letting the Israel lobby cancel the First Amendment to shield a foreign government from criticism — something he says has never happened in world history. He claims the US has spent 25 years and trillions destroying Iraq, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Sudan, and Gaza to advance the Zionist “Greater Israel” agenda (Nile to Euphrates, now expanded by Israeli ministers to include half of Saudi Arabia and territory to Pakistan), and that the US was militarily defeated by Iran — losing every Persian Gulf base, running out of interceptor missiles — forcing Trump to beg for the ceasefire. He predicts Trump will invade Cuba to distract from the Iran humiliation, warns the Chinese leader told Trump to his face that “America is a declining power,” and argues weaponizing the dollar through sanctions and seizing $300 billion of Russian reserves is destroying foreign demand for Treasury debt, which could trigger Weimar-style inflation if the Fed is forced to monetize it all.
Trump’s “Israeli Sedition Act” and the death of the First Amendment: Roberts says Trump issued an edict treating any criticism of Israel as antisemitic, which the acting attorney general (also Trump’s personal defense lawyer) pledged to enforce — a privilege not extended to criticism of the US, Russian, or any other government. He calls this treasonous because the presidential oath is to defend the Constitution, and notes a bipartisan House bill is now being introduced to extend this censorship to the internet.
The Thomas Massie defeat as a rigged Israel-lobby hit: Massie, the only House member without an “AIPAC babysitter” per his own words, lost his primary in suspicious circumstances — only 70 Kentuckians donated to his challenger versus nearly 2,000 to Massie, 85% of the challenger’s money was Israeli/Israeli-pack money, and 10,000 mail-in ballots arrived at the last minute matching the exact margin of victory. Roberts says Trump’s billionaire Jewish backers demanded Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene be silenced.
The Greater Israel agenda and 25 years of US wars: Roberts says Netanyahu and other Israeli prime ministers have openly held up maps defining Greater Israel as Nile-to-Euphrates territory, with one minister recently expanding it to include half of Saudi Arabia and another extending it to Pakistan. He argues the “war on terror” was a cover for clearing barriers to this expansion, and cites the neoconservatives’ pre-9/11 call for a “new Pearl Harbor” plus General Wesley Clark’s televised confirmation of a plan to destroy seven Middle Eastern countries in five years.
US military defeat by Iran and the Cuba-invasion prediction: Roberts claims the US lost every Persian Gulf base (totally or three-quarters destroyed), ran out of interceptor missiles, and that the Isfahan raid to seize enriched uranium was blown up and disguised as a pilot rescue. With Iran refusing to negotiate anything beyond ending the war, Trump is trapped and Roberts predicts he’ll invade Cuba to change the subject and let the Iran issue “die” on the back burner.
Dollar reserve currency at risk from weaponization: Roberts argues US debt has only been sustainable because global central bank reserves are denominated in Treasuries, but stealing $300 billion of Russian reserves plus Iranian, Venezuelan, and other holdings has spooked foreigners — China is steadily selling its $1 trillion Treasury holdings to buy gold, Russia holds no dollar reserves, and even South Korea is lightening up. If demand dries up, the Fed must monetize, which Roberts warns could replay Weimar Germany’s wheelbarrow-of-marks inflation as the dollar collapses on foreign exchange markets.
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