Written by Bryan Lutz, Editor at Dollarcollapse.com:
If you were wondering about cycles…
Wondering if they’re just theory…
Or if there’s anything you can touch and feel about them – here we are again.
Another edition of 3 Sunday Morning Thoughts.
Every Sunday I share a few thoughts with you, and other subscribers at Dollar Collapse.
Sometimes we’ll talk about economics, sometimes recent events, and other times, life.
Here are three thoughts for this morning:
1. Speaking of cycles, here’s one more thing that’s weird about the current market economy.
Here’s the gist of it.
There is a certain reaction that happens whenever the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to “battle inflation.”
When interest rates are left high enough for long enough, eventually they produce a recession. The chart below shows a historical account of recessions in blue columns.
So, in order to get the economy out of recession (and manufacture rising stock prices), the Federal Reserve does something to “rescue” us from a recession.
To raise the economy out of a recession, the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates. Then they raise the money supply.
They do this as long as they can, until the cycle repeats itself. You can see this below.
Now something weird is happening with the market economy. The Fed has been lowering interest rates for almost two years with no declaration of a recession. And, at the same time the money supply has been increasing. By historical accounts there “should’ve” been a recession.
Maybe we are waiting for one.
Maybe we are not.
Maybe the Federal has reached perfect economic synchronicity, but inflation is returning. And that means, the Fed will need to raise interest rates to battle inflation once again. Can the Fed pull off what they did over the last several years?
It’s weird. Something odd is happening.
2. Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy sold a tiny portion of Bitcoin this week, which possibly resulted in Bitcoin hitting another shockingly low price. What’s happening with Bitcoin? Is it still running its old cycle?
Bitcoin is crashing to a new cycle low.
The chart below has it hitting south of its previous cycle low, and much lower than last cycle’s all-time high.
If Bitcoin is still in a cycle, which it might be, the next all-time-low is scheduled for October 5, 2026. At least, according to the mystical maths Mark Jeftovic shares below.
Last cycles ATH was right on the money. And it was predicted 2 years prior…
I always thought this little mind-fuck here was the hyperstition event of the century (so far). pic.twitter.com/JpRF1JaJ4f
— Mark E. Jeftovic (@jeftovic) June 4, 2026
If the cycle you see above is right, Bitcoin’s next all-time-high is scheduled in at February 29, 2028.
3. There’s lots of hype built around IPOs. Especially around the SpaceX IPO, which is due for release on June 12, this week. When is the best time to invest?
IPOs are a funny thing. They build up lots of hype with hopes of overnight riches, which almost never happens.
To understand when the best time to invest is, here’s what happened with three big tech company IPOs for about two years after they were released.
Here’s the first two years of Google:
The first two years of Amazon:
And the first two years of Microsoft:
If you look at all the charts, it’s about 10-16 months before there starts to develop a trend line. While paying close attention to the company’s fundamentals, the best time to invest may not be during the initial public offering but as the stock starts to develop a trend upwards.
Patience always pays off. So does not paying attention to the hype.
