Skousen argues the US-Iran ceasefire is “very, very shaky” and was forced on Trump because Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz (20% of world oil) threatened to cut off European and Californian oil supply around July 1st, with Iran still holding 70% of its missiles after the US-Israeli attacks. He claims the war narrative was driven by Israeli influence via a “Hollywood-type” Mossad presentation, that Putin is actually losing in Ukraine with roughly 40,000 Russian troops killed monthly via AI-directed drones, and that a hidden globalist network deliberately built up Russia and China as enemies to engineer a third world war and global government. He warns of a coming EMP strike that would take down the grid for up to a year, rendering crypto, bank accounts, and stocks inaccessible, potentially starving 80% of Americans, and urges listeners to stockpile, avoid the establishment medical system, and build concealed “safe rooms.”
Shaky Iran ceasefire and the Hormuz oil shock: Skousen claims Trump was “desperate” for the deal because oil supply to Europe was predicted to end around July 1st, with the US drawing down strategic petroleum reserves to within a week of running dry. He argues Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon violate point one of the 14-point memorandum and that Trump lacks the courage to use “military blackmail” by cutting off Israel’s weapons.
Putin losing the Ukraine war: He asserts Russia loses roughly 40,000 troops a month to Ukraine’s AI-directed hovering drones, which also pick off tanks, trucks, and trains behind the front lines, leaving Russia making no progress and losing ground. He predicts the Ukraine war resolves within the year while the Iran conflict will not, because Netanyahu hopes to drag the US back into war.
Three “predator centers” globalist theory: Skousen calls himself the only analyst arguing there are three competing power centers, not an East-West binary, claiming Western globalists built up Russia and China by transferring nuclear, MIRV, and military technology (citing Lend-Lease and Kissinger). He argues Russia faked its 1989-91 demise to obtain Western aid and remains communist while wary of a now-superior China.
EMP strike and societal collapse: He predicts markets will collapse when “this war comes” via an EMP strike taking down the grid for up to a year, combined with a nuclear strike on military targets only (not cities). He fears total chaos in which about 80% of Americans may starve to death and from which recovery may not be rapid.
Preparedness, safe rooms, and anti-establishment health: Skousen, nearing 80 and citing “perfect health” from herbs and vitamins, claims vaccines are “extremely dangerous” and that drug-industry insiders want medications that manage rather than cure illness. He promotes concealed concrete “safe rooms,” stockpiling, and his books (The Secure Home, the High Security Shelter Book, and Strategic Relocation at $35 from his site).
Michaux argues that modern civilization is undergoing a “grand transition” in which semiconductors are the modern equivalent of charcoal, and that if humanity loses the ability to make them, technology would go offline faster than society could rebuild it. Drawing on the 1177 BC Bronze Age collapse and John Perlin’s “A Forest Journey,” he contends complex globalized systems are uniquely fragile, that every technology takes 50-60 years from invention to widespread use, and that the green transition is a “PR exercise” with no credible Plan C now that Plan B has failed. He predicts a forced shift away from the six-continent just-in-time supply system toward a smaller, decentralized, lower-complexity world, warns that surviving infrastructure may become a control system serving a small elite, and frames the choice ahead as fear and division versus love and community.
Semiconductors as modern charcoal: Michaux adopts Steve St. Angelo’s thesis that semiconductors are today’s equivalent of the charcoal Bronze Age civilizations depended on, arguing that losing them would cause cascading “unraveling” before society could become resilient. He likens a technologically dependent society stripped of its tools to “a turtle on its back.”
Historical collapse case studies: He cites Eric Cline’s work on the simultaneous 1177 BC collapse of multiple Bronze Age civilizations (drought, sea peoples, lost tin/copper trade networks) and Perlin’s argument that civilizations rise by consuming forests and fall when wood/charcoal runs out. The lesson he draws is that complex systems can suffer permanent capability loss when one supporting node fails for even a short time.
Fossil fuel dependence and depleting resources: Michaux notes fossil fuel use grew more than the entire renewables grid between 2010 and 2024, meaning nothing has been phased out, and that energy is a third or more of base metal production costs as ore grades decline. He cites roughly 42 years of gas reserves at 4.1 terracubic meters consumed annually, with peak gas estimated around 2035.
The factor of time and failed green transition: He stresses transitions historically take 50-60 years (mines ~25 years, nuclear plants 10-16 years), making 2050 carbon-free targets “ludicrous.” Drawing on confidential European high-level meetings, he concludes the green transition is a PR exercise to convince the public there is a plan, with the Iberian blackout exposing serious problems and no Plan C.
AI, surveillance, and a two-tier control system: Michaux argues AI cannot “magic up” the 5-6x historical resource quantities needed and that data centers like Chris Martenson’s cited 9-gigawatt project will cannibalize community gas supplies. He warns the system that comes back online will be a surveillance/control grid serving a wealthy few, citing Catherine Austin Fitts, while urging individuals to think for themselves and reject fear.
AI-driven speculation in the stock market went into overdrive last week with the launch of the SpaceX IPO. And that may be very dangerous, warns Quoth The Raven’s Chris Irons.
In fact, he thinks it may have the definitive “jump the shark” moment for the AI bubble. To understand why and how severe the fallout could be, watch this video.
Austin Fitts argues that central bankers are building a “digital control grid” to seize fiscal policy alongside monetary policy, resting on three legs: programmable money, a globally interoperable digital ID, and surveillance infrastructure (data centers, cables, AI, cameras). She contends stablecoins under the Genius Act are more dangerous than CBDCs because they enable an “automated third lock” with no human accountability or customer recourse, citing the seizure of a billion dollars in Iranian wallets and the Canadian truckers, and warns the US is effectively “tendering for 8 billion people” by pulling the world into dollar stablecoins that drain local economies into the Treasury market. She frames the goal as a two-tier society of life-extending oligarchs and a declining general population, dates the “financial coup” to roughly $21 trillion missing since 1998 plus the COVID “$5-6 trillion” reset, but insists the scheme will fail as “the biggest cluster in the history of the world” and urges 5-10% of people to push back via cash, gold, guardrail legislation, and a right to a non-digital life.
Three legs of the digital control grid: Austin Fitts says the system requires programmable money, a high-quality globally interoperable digital ID (with biometrics, fingerprints, eye scans), and surveillance hardware/software. She frames this as central bankers moving to control both monetary and fiscal policy, citing BIS general manager Agustín Carstens’ 2020 IMF admission that a CBDC gives “absolute control” and “the technology to enforce” rules.
Stablecoins as more dangerous than CBDCs: She argues the US will use programmable stablecoins and digital tokens in public-private partnerships under the Genius and Clarity Acts, which lack a central bank’s legal obligations to citizens. She distinguishes a “manual third lock” (human-reviewed, recourse available) from an “automated third lock” where AI freezes money with “no customer service to call.”
Draining local economies into the Treasury market: Austin Fitts says stablecoins collateralized by short-term Treasury bills market US crypto globally to fund the Treasury as institutions retreat, while DTC moves $114 trillion of stocks and bonds onto distributed ledgers, tradeable 24/7 at up to 20x margin. She warns this creates “a giant sucking sound” pulling capital from banks and credit unions, imploding local economies and municipal tax bases.
The oligarch plan and population reduction: She claims the master plan is total control under two sets of rules, citing Jared Kushner and Steve Wolfram on living “forever” via AI-driven biotech, with the general population pushed onto a trajectory of declining numbers, lower life expectancy, and less wealth. She names Bill Gates buying farmland and frames food control as essential because growing your own food enables making your own money.
Bitcoin as prototype and the pushback: Austin Fitts argues Bitcoin was created to prototype programmable money for control, “hijacked” early (citing Roger Ver and Steve Patterson), and is now dominated by players like BlackRock and MicroStrategy. Her remedies include protecting cash, model legislation for guardrails and a right to a non-digital life (the Swiss model), gold as a store of value with no third-party dependency, and the free “Coming Clean” buffet of actions at the Solari Report.
Martenson argues the oil market is in an “irrational moment” where inventories appear not to matter for the first time in his life, with global and floating inventories at decade lows, the US SPR back to 1983 levels, and managed money record-short Brent ($18-19 billion in shorts) despite a 5-million-barrel-a-day shortfall he calls the “biggest oil shock ever.” He suspects an “invisible hand” — possibly the US Treasury, Japan, or a coordinated consortium — is suppressing prices for political signaling, and gives the Iran MOU less than a 50% chance of holding while warning the NATO-Russia proxy war is “one match away” from going direct after red lines were crossed, including a strike on a key Russian chip plant. On gold and commodities he sees a coordinated takedown (possibly a US-China quid pro quo for cheaper gold) but insists the big trend is central banks printing money, advocating a hard-asset “Jacob Fugger” portfolio, and closing with existential warnings about resource-population mismatches and “Skynet” AI risk, even naming “Claude Mythos” jailbreaking as a tail risk.
Inventories no longer matter and the invisible hand: Martenson notes inventories at levels unseen in over a decade and the SPR back to 1983 fill levels, yet managed money is record-short Brent at $18-19 billion versus a normal $6-8 billion. Citing traders at firms like Vitol, he suspects official intervention by the US Treasury, Japan (defending the yen), or a state-coordinated consortium is suppressing oil as a political signaling device.
Fragile Iran ceasefire and oil restoration timeline: He calls the MOU merely “an understanding about how to come to understandings,” scoring it under 50% to hold over its 60-day window, noting no IRGC representative has appeared at meetings. He estimates even at 80% restoration of the normal 25 million barrels/day, the world stays 5 million barrels short for 3-6 months, with Cushing at 19 million barrels near its ~18 million operational floor.
NATO-Russia proxy war escalation: Martenson frames Ukraine as a NATO proxy war tracing to 2013, argues Putin has shown “remarkable restraint” despite crossed red lines including a strike on a key Russian chip plant via US AGM-188s or Storm Shadows. He warns it is “one match away” from direct NATO-Russia conflict and would not be surprised by an attack on a European city, while Germany’s energy-dependent economy is down 28%.
China’s manufacturing dominance and dollar decline: He argues “the business of America is war, the business of China is business,” noting China dialed back oil imports ~4 million barrels/day from reserves and out-manufactures everyone (citing Temu). He sees the yuan trade share quadrupling from 2% to 8% in three years and no path for the US to maintain dollar dominance through Bessent’s “bullying” of Venezuela.
Money printing thesis, gold takedown, and AI risk: Martenson reads the synchronized decline in gold (below $4,000), silver, oil, copper, and grains as a coordinated paper-market takedown, possibly a US-China deal swapping cheaper gold for reduced Chinese oil demand. His core trade is hard assets via a 25% gold/silver, 25% real estate, 25% cash, 25% quality equities “Jacob Fugger” portfolio, and he flags existential risk that AI prompted on resource-population mismatches produces manipulation “subroutines.”
Casey argues that with the average cost of lifting a barrel of oil around $60, current ~$70 WTI gives oil businesses a fair return, and he is long oil via oil stocks and bull spreads while expecting depleted reserves to need refilling. He calls Trump a “pathological liar” (or kindly, a “fabulist”) who wrongly joined Israel against Iran — a war he says Iran won — leaving the underlying Israeli-Persian conflict unresolved and likely to flare again after a temporary hiatus. He maintains the world has already entered a “greater depression” of declining living standards masked by all-time-high stocks, that nuclear is the safest/cleanest/cheapest mass power, that all commodities trend cheaper over millennia toward the “singularity,” and that gold and silver are savings vehicles (gold no longer cheap near $4,000, fair value closer to $2,500) while mining and energy stocks — now just 2% and 4% of the S&P — are the cheapest assets in the world.
Oil prices, costs, and how to play it: Casey pegs the worldwide average lifting cost near $60, making $70 oil a “businessman’s return,” and would be long now via oil stocks (some yielding 10%+ safe dividends) and commodity-option bull spreads. He notes 20% of world oil transits Hormuz plus another 6-8% through Bab-el-Mandeb, and that depleted reserves including the US SPR must be refilled, supporting prices.
Iran war and Trump as “fabulist”: Casey says Trump — whom he calls a pathological liar pressured by an AIPAC-controlled Congress and the Israelis — should never have joined a fight the US had “nothing to gain from,” and that the Iranians won. He believes the conflict has temporarily “gone away” (Trump’s ~40th “I solved it”) but that the Israeli-Persian core dispute remains and will continue.
Greater depression and debt: Casey claims the world has entered a “greater depression” of significantly dropping living standards, hidden by record stock markets but driven by debt — $40 trillion US government debt, $1.5 trillion student loans, $1.5 trillion credit card debt at 20%, and 6.5% mortgages. He warns debt maintains current living standards only by lowering future ones, putting the US near “the edge of a precipice.”
Nuclear, electrification, and the long commodity downtrend: Casey argues the world should and will electrify, with nuclear the only rational mass source, and is “not worried about running out of anything” as the singularity approaches. He contends the longest trend in history is all commodities getting cheaper in real terms (a caveman with native copper was a “billionaire”), with shortages merely “temporary distortions.”
Gold, mining stocks, and interest rates: Casey treats gold/silver as savings vehicles — the only financial assets that aren’t someone else’s liability — calling gold near $4,000 reasonably to overpriced (fair value closer to $2,500) but mining stocks deeply undervalued at ~2% of the S&P. He predicts higher interest rates as the Fed monetizes ~$2 trillion deficits (interest now over $1 trillion/year, exceeding the military budget), and favors private placements with warrants in entrepreneur-run juniors, plus cheap natural gas (~$3) and corn.
Jeffrey argues the oil market is dangerously complacent because, despite a fresh Israel-Lebanon deal and the Iran MOU, the situation is “tighter today than when the war started” yet every priced measure (oil, equities, volatility) sits below pre-war levels. He explains the price collapse as a one-time “pimple pop” of roughly 160 million barrels of trapped Strait of Hormuz oil hitting the market against a 1.5 billion barrel loss, with 5.5 million barrels/day still shut in, record refining margins over $50 (the 321 crack), and a deeply contango front-end curve. He flags the unexplained disappearance of about 2 million barrels/day of Chinese import demand as the market’s central mystery, stays long oil via roll-yield ETFs (USO, BNO) into a “hard asset super cycle,” is bullish on gold toward 10,000 once central banks stop flirting with hikes, and the interview climaxes with live news of a US Central Command strike on Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites in response to an Iranian drone attack on the Singaporean-flagged MV E Lovely.
The “pimple pop” oil surge and contango curve: Jeffrey says roughly 160 million barrels of oil trapped in the Strait for 3-4 weeks dumped onto the market at once, crushing the front end into contango below storage economics, which he has never seen in three decades. He estimates it takes 30+ days to digest, but with 5.5 million barrels/day still shut in and a 1.5 billion barrel cumulative loss, “we haven’t recovered.”
Market complacency versus structural tightness: He argues the situation is tighter than at the war’s start, yet oil (~$71), equities, long-dated options, and volatility all price as if “the party’s over,” which he calls incorrect. With the market “unbelievably short,” he warns any surprise event would trigger a violent short-covering rally.
The unexplained Chinese demand mystery: Jeffrey says about 6 million barrels/day of Chinese demand vanished, of which two is fuel-switching to coal/electricity and two is pre-event reserve building, leaving roughly 2 million barrels/day “missing” with no good explanation. He finds it baffling China isn’t buying “hand over fist” at sub-$70 WTI given their ~$74 average reserve purchase price, suspecting concealed draws, drawn petrochemical/plastics inventories, or simply falsified data.
Roll-yield strategy and the hard-asset super cycle: He holds oil via ETFs like USO and BNO because returns come from rolling the front month in backwardation, not spot price, noting he booked ~40% gains in April on spikes and is still up 25-30% from the war’s start. He stays long oil and copper into a deglobalization-driven “hard asset super cycle” (reshoring, defense, energy security), while remaining short gold near 3,900 until rate-hike fears flatten, after which he targets a potential 2x move toward 10,000.
Live US strike and the Strait of Hormuz as dealbreaker: During recording, CENTCOM announces strikes on Iranian missile, drone, and coastal radar sites responding to Iran’s drone attack on the MV E Lovely, which Jeffrey notes violates the MOU’s clause five (Iran’s “best efforts” for safe passage) just as Israel breaches clause one in Lebanon. He frames Trump as caught in an “escalation trap” (citing Robert Pape), argues Iran won’t strike its now-friendlier Gulf neighbors but may use asymmetric proxies globally, and identifies closing the Strait as the true dealbreaker since it hurts Trump’s inflation-sensitive re-election without materially hurting the US economy.
On this episode of Power & Market, Tho, Connor, and special guest Ryan Turnipseed pay tribute to the Maestro, consider whether Democratic Socialists are part of Greenspan’s legacy, and embrace Justice Clarence Thomas as a Rothbard respecter.
Zeihan argues that US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has changed what the United States would send NATO in a military emergency to “very, very little” — no carriers, no carrier aircraft, no precision munitions, no logistical supply, and limited satellite support — on the official rationale that all China-relevant assets must remain perpetually available for a China fight. He contends the unofficial reality is that after the Iran war, the US has lost the capability to even pretend to fight more than one war at a time, effectively telling Europe it is on its own and ending the 1949 NATO bargain in which the US held broad-area competencies and commanded European militaries. He predicts that within roughly a year, US and European forces will lose interoperability as Europe abandons American weapons systems for fast-built Ukrainian-style drones backstopped by a multi-state nuclear deterrent, meaning both a political decision in Washington and European procurement decisions will functionally end the alliance.
Hegseth’s stripped-down NATO commitment: Zeihan reports the US would now send NATO almost nothing in a war — no carriers or carrier aircraft, no precision munitions, no logistical supply, and only limited satellite support. The official justification is that any asset potentially needed against China can never be deployed elsewhere.
Loss of two-war capability after Iran: He argues the unofficial truth is that the Iran war exposed the US inability to fight more than one war at a time, and prepositioning everything for China means the US cannot intervene anywhere else. This confirms his earlier thesis that the way Trump fought Iran would “excise” US power from the Eastern Hemisphere.
The end of the 1949 NATO bargain: Zeihan explains NATO’s founding logic was that the US developed broad-area competencies the Europeans deliberately did not, keeping Europe dependent and ensuring US command of their militaries in a fight. With the US signaling no assets will come before conflict even begins, he calls this “pretty much the end of things” and says the US just lost force projection in Europe.
Collapse of interoperability: Because Europeans bought American weapons only to stay interoperable with the power meant to command them, Zeihan argues there is now no point in maintaining that interoperability. He predicts that as little as a year out, the two militaries will operate, if at all, with different command structures and doctrine.
Europe’s pivot to Ukrainian-style drone warfare: Lacking the 10-15 years needed to build an American-style force, Zeihan says Europe will adopt Ukrainian-style weapons buildable in weeks to months, likely backstopped by a multi-state nuclear deterrent whose management is “TBD.” He concludes these forced procurement decisions will end the alliance regardless of politics, marking the start of “strategic breakdown and realignment” with Europe and the US on opposite sides.
SATIRE
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