Tavi Costa of Azuria Capital argues gold and silver are the most oversold they have been since 2008, funds are near capitulation, and this is a once-in-a-decade buying window in an intact secular bull market that won’t offer positions like this again in the next 5 to 10 years. He rejects the market’s pricing of a new Fed hiking cycle as intolerable given US debt levels, says the dollar is extremely overbought and close to reversing lower against the yen, Canadian dollar, and euro, and notes miners and even explorers keep outperforming the metal, a sign institutional capital is arriving. Longer term he says debt creates wars, onshoring will require China-scale electricity buildouts, resource businesses will become the new moat businesses, but 10 to 15 years out, once AI infrastructure is fully deployed and deflationary, he does not want to be long gold.
Most oversold since 2008: Costa says gold and silver have never been this oversold since roughly 2008, with funds close to capitulation, and calls it a window of opportunity rather than a change in the fundamental story.
No hiking cycle is possible: He strongly disagrees with markets pricing in rate hikes, saying the US cannot tolerate them given the growing interest burden crowding out pro-growth spending, and expects the US will eventually have to suppress rates regardless; he doubts the Warsh appointment changes much.
Dollar reversal ahead: The dollar is technically extremely overbought and near levels that bother global trade, so he sees the yen, Canadian dollar, and euro at the beginning of an upward move against it rather than the reverse.
Miners are absurdly cheap: Miners trade at cash flow multiples around 3x with free cash flow at multiples of any period in history; his Bolivian silver mine, the fourth largest in the world, produces at sub-$20 an ounce, which he says is better margins than Google, while seniors insanely keep cutting exploration budgets.
Critical minerals skepticism and the AI endgame: He calls the institutional rush into rare earths crazy since most critical mineral deposits are not profitable businesses, and warns that once AI automation is fully built out in 10 to 15 years the world turns deflationary and he would not want to own gold.
Banyan Gold president and CEO Tara Christie says the company holds 8.6 million ounces in Canada’s Yukon (3.6 million indicated, 5 million inferred) yet trades at just $50 an ounce while peers with PEAs trade at $200-plus and Rupert Resources was taken out at $500 an ounce, making the re-rate potential this year high. She argues the old overhangs are gone: 100% property ownership closed in August 2025, a large share block moved to strong institutional hands, and the low-grade perception was dispelled by a resource showing over 4 million combined ounces at 1.4 g/t at a 0.55 cut-off, with 90% recoveries at both deposits. Banyan is funded into 2027, is 32,000 meters into a 70,000-meter program, has a PEA due in Q4 2026 that she believes can show 5 million-plus minable ounces, and Christie has $2.8 million of her own cash in the stock without selling a share.
$50 vs. $500 an ounce valuation gap: Banyan trades around $50 per ounce while PEA-stage peers fetch $200-plus and Rupert Resources was acquired for $500 per ounce, which Christie calls a high re-rate opportunity as the 2024 Yukon overhangs clear.
Rare 8.6-million-ounce scale: The project holds 3.6 million indicated and 5 million inferred ounces on surface, with existing roads, a grid-connected power line to a nearby hydro dam, cell service, and moderate topography; she says very few global resources exceed 8 million ounces and fewer still have 3 million-plus minable ounces.
PEA and 70,000-meter drill program: The PEA lands in Q4 2026 built on 2025 drilling only, with 32,000 meters already done by July toward 70,000 meters across Ormac and regional targets; she believes the project can support 5 million-plus minable ounces versus peers like Talisker’s Coffee at 2.8 million.
District-scale and AI targets: Banyan has drilled less than 2% of its 840 square kilometers, with 10 additional targets, seven generated by both AI and geologists and three pure-AI, hunting satellite starter pits of half a million ounces at a gram-plus.
Skin in the game and efficiency: Christie has invested over $2.8 million of her own cash, has never sold a share from exercised options, and says Banyan added 20 ounces per meter drilled last year with among the lowest G&A of its peers; permitting-to-construction is roughly four years, which the current financing shortened by about a year.
Peter Zeihan argues Ukraine has proven decisively superior in drone innovation, fielding a dozen major new models at scale in three months (hybrid detachable-wing drones, turbo drones, and memory drones that pick their own targets) and outproducing Russia 13 drones to 10, to the point that Russian front-line positions are breaking down and could approach collapse this summer. Ukraine’s edge comes from legacy Soviet aerospace names like Motor Sich, Kharkiv Aerospace, Aviant, and Antonov being revived with European capital and new money from Persian Gulf Arab states, who need interceptors because the US has told them American supply isn’t coming. Russia’s counter-strength is producing proven designs at two-to-five-times scale using Chinese parts, so the war’s outcome now hinges on whether China decides to financially carry Russia, a decision Zeihan says will likely make this the year we find out how the war ends.
Ukraine’s innovation blitz: A dozen major new drone models reached scale in just 3 months, including hybrid drones with detachable wings, turbo drones with better speed, range, and payload, and memory drones that select their own targets, and Russian front positions are breaking down with possible collapse later this year.
Soviet legacy revived: Ukraine inherited the Soviet aviation-industrial base (Motor Sich, Kharkiv Aerospace, Aviant, Antonov), and its veteran personnel returned to work, took on dozens of apprentices, and married legacy skills and plant with new European capital.
Gulf money floods in: Arab states of the Persian Gulf are funding Ukrainian drone production because the US has alerted them it won’t expand their interceptor inventories, and Zeihan says the Ukrainians are the only ones in the game.
Russia’s scale advantage: Russia’s strength is not innovation but mass-producing proven designs at two to five times Ukrainian volume once production ramps, so long as it can source parts from China; the US, he says, has basically checked out.
China holds the decision: Ukraine produces about 13 drones for Russia’s 10 and is striking the Russian income stream that pays for Chinese parts, forcing Beijing to choose whether to finance Russia’s war; either Chinese backing stabilizes the front or Ukraine grinds down Russian industry, and this year likely decides how the war ends.
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