Top Three Videos – August 1, 2026
Dave Collum: "I've Never Been This Scared"...(July 24, 2026)
TFTC...
Summary
ollum argues the current market is “the biggest mother of them all” — an AI bubble perched atop private equity, private credit, real estate, and standard equities, “turtles all the way down” — with claimed AI malinvestment 17 times the dotcom bubble’s and SpaceX’s IPO (which he calls “a $1.5 trillion NFT,” now down 30% from listing) marking the top if he were to call one. He puts the odds of a correction at 80–90% rather than 40%, noting the Shiller CAPE at 42–43 versus a 15 average from 1870–1990, implying a 65–66% drop just to reach mean valuation, and speculates new Fed chair Warsh may have been installed as a hawk to force the purge before Treasury steps in. Across pharma (SNRIs, statins), the Charlie Kirk shooting, October 7th, and the Iran war, all three contend the system suffers a total collapse of accountability — with Collum claiming Tyler Robinson cannot be convicted on the evidence and that October 7th was “clearly a false flag.”
Top 5 Key Topics
AI bubble on top of private credit: Collum claims malinvestment in the AI bubble is 17 times the dotcom bubble’s (a George Noble figure he admits is vague), cites Cisco’s 30% revenue growth in 1999 and the Nikkei’s 1989 dominance as proof that revenue growth “has nothing to do with investing,” and notes Google reported negative cash flow for the first time in its history. He argues trillion-dollar IPOs like SpaceX will suck liquidity out of the system, with a staged six-month lockout designed to avoid dumping over $1 trillion in shares at once, and that a fair price might be $3 a share at 10x sales.
Crash math and no unstoppable Fed: Collum contends real economic downturns and corrections from profound overvaluation can be delayed but never stopped — “there’s never been an asset class in history that got overvalued that didn’t find its way back to cheap” — rejecting Marty’s suggestion that authorities won’t allow a 75% S&P correction. He floats the theory that Warsh was installed to “projectile vomit, purge” like Volcker (who acted for the banking system, not the public), after which Treasury and Fed get welded together.
Pharma and medical system claims: Collum recounts his wife’s ordeal tapering off 15 years of high-dose Effexor (SNRI), claiming real-world tapering takes a minimum of a calendar year versus what authorities advise, and that his informal Twitter poll on statins returned 62% reporting major side effects, with roughly 495 of 500 anecdotes negative. He cites “Keppra rage,” advises searching Twitter for drug names over trusting experts, says he’ll never take another vaccine after reading Aaron Siri’s “Vaccine: Amen,” and claims no vaccine has ever been tested correctly.
Charlie Kirk shooting and October 7th claims: Collum claims there is “not a single shred of evidence” Tyler Robinson shot Charlie Kirk, citing the bulldozed and concreted-over stage, mismatched exhaust pipes on the Dodge Charger, a screwdriver that appeared on the roof days later, no clear face or license plate images, and a security-camera witness reporting a bald man with three others in the car; he endorses roughly 80% of Candace Owens’ exploding-mic theory. He further claims October 7th was “clearly a false flag,” asserting Netanyahu knew months in advance (a case he says he can make from exclusively Israeli sources) and that Israel could not have failed to stop 800 paragliders for eight hours.
Iran war, AIPAC, and the fourth turning: Collum says his Twitter poll on who to blame if Putin strikes Europe returned only ~4% blaming Putin, argues Iran is matching escalation blow for blow with restraint and merely has to outlast the US (noting Iran could destroy Israel by droning its seven desalination plants supplying ~90% of its fresh water), and calls the House vote merging US-Israel military procurement — with only four Republicans opposed — proof of captured government. He estimates the fourth turning is only ~15% through its fireworks, with the grand finale historically a horrific war, while Marty notes Trump made $1.9 billion on crypto trades (more than Coinbase’s annual profit) amid the “looting of the treasury” stage.
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Bert Dohmen: Wars, Famine and a 90% Crash Ahead - 'Worse Than the 1930s'...(July 30, 2026)
Commodity Culture...
Summary
Dohmen argues private credit is the trigger for the next global financial crisis, with all the warning signs of 2008 present — firms unable to return investors’ own money (including BlackRock-linked funds, he claims) while whipping up sentiment to offload “garbage” onto inexperienced buyers — and his decade forecast calls for a global depression worse than the 1930s, complete with riots, wars, and famines. He sees a direct parallel to 1978, when a new Fed chair raised rates without tightening money and thereby fueled inflation into commodities’ greatest bull run, and expects the same from the incoming Fed regime — making commodity indices like DBC and DBA his preferred trade, with agricultural shortages looming as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed (zero ships in 24 hours). Dohmen contends we are already in an unacknowledged bear market — with the Magnificent Seven at 40% of S&P capitalization masking declines like Oracle -54%, SanDisk -53%, Western Digital -45%, IBM -39% — and predicts at least one index, likely the NASDAQ, will crash 80–90%.
Top 5 Key Topics
Private credit as the 2008 rerun: Dohmen claims private credit firms can’t or won’t return investors’ money and are hunting for “foolish and inexperienced investors to take the garbage off their hands,” receiving zero financial TV coverage because the networks are owned and paid for by Wall Street. He recalls calling 2008 early — shorting into the Lehman bankruptcy with recommended ETFs up ~94% in three months — and notes a private equity executive friend boasting of 13% interest loans, which Dohmen reads as a red flag on borrower quality.
The 1978 playbook: When the 1978 Fed chair raised rates without tightening money, Dohmen wrote it was “a green light for very high inflation” — gold ran from $128 to $800 by 1980 and the prime rate hit 20% after Goldman’s chief economist called that figure absurd at 12¾%. Raising rates with loose money fuels inflation because higher rates are a cost of business that firms pass through; only Volcker’s genuine credit tightening killed it, setting up Dohmen’s 40-fold zero-coupon Treasury trade over four decades.
Casino markets and record leverage: Margin debt sits at an all-time record ~$1.5 trillion, callable within hours; the CME has launched single-stock futures; prediction markets let people bet on weather and football; and algos execute 90,000 trades per second against 19-year-olds day-trading on laptops. Dohmen calls cryptos with zero intrinsic value destined for the same price — zero — and says the retail investor is elected “bag holder,” per Joe Granville, holding stocks all the way down 80–90%.
Hyperinflation and the Stinnes strategy: Dohmen sees US hyperinflation as genuinely on the table with global cascading effects, citing German industrialist Hugo Stinnes, who borrowed relentlessly in the early-1920s Weimar inflation and ended up owning 3,000–4,000 companies (once buying one of his own by accident) — if hyperinflation comes, you want to borrow like crazy and hold gold, which has preserved purchasing power for thousands of years.
Gold’s washout and positioning: The gold correction isn’t the end of the bull market but a necessary flush — “wherever the masses are is where you don’t want to be” — and big money waits for bargains before a major catch-up move in gold and silver, since central banks have no alternative but record money creation. He advises risk-first thinking, lengthening time horizons beyond the algos’ reach, and notes Buffett’s ~$360 billion cash pile as validation that being early beats riding an 80–90% plunge.
Willem Middelkoop: Why Both Washington and Beijing Want Gold Cheaper...(July 27, 2026)
Kitco News...
Summary
Middelkoop argues the monetary reset he forecast is already underway — not as a binary weekend IMF announcement but a gradual revaluation happening “in the accounting” — with gold having replaced US Treasuries as the world’s top reserve asset (now ~30% of central bank assets, versus foreign Treasury holdings falling from 35% to 12% of outstanding), and both Washington and Beijing quietly preferring a cheaper gold price: China bought over 150 tons in June alone (60% of ex-China world production) while the US keeps its 8,000 tons booked at $42 an ounce. He claims Chinese state gold holdings far exceed official figures — citing a Chinese official who told him at his 2015 Beijing book launch that two other government institutions hoard gold beyond the PBOC — with Silk Road countries accumulating over 50,000 tons since 2008, and cites Deutsche Bank projections of gold reaching 40–50% of central bank assets and prices north of $10,000. With US debt near $40 trillion, $15 trillion in annual Treasury rollovers, and peak supply arriving in gold, silver (peaked 2016), and copper, he sees a “perfect storm” for resource investors and calls for $500 silver before this bull market ends.
Top 5 Key Topics
The quiet reset via accounting: France sold 129 tons of gold held in New York and repurchased the same amount in Europe, crystallizing €12.8 billion in gains without changing tonnage, while Poland has proposed funding defense from gold gains — Middelkoop reads these as governments learning to mobilize gold through accounting, with a full global revaluation of central bank reserves awaiting the next financial crisis. The US could revalue its $42 book price for a massive paper profit, though Treasury Secretary Bessent has ruled it out and Middelkoop notes gold is “the anti-dollar.”
China’s hidden hoard and physical control: Beyond official reserves of 2,346 tons, Middelkoop claims two additional Chinese government institutions hoard gold, that China’s June demand of 150+ tons equals 60% of ex-China mine production, and that ICBC and other banks pulling retail access to Shanghai Gold Exchange paper trading (while still allowing physical purchases) reflects a deliberate strategy: control the physical, kill the speculation. He cites China’s “storing gold with the people” program and argues the state can simply order citizens to hand gold over in a crisis.
Price discovery moving east: Massive COMEX outflows, gold becoming the top US export by value, Hong Kong’s new precious metals clearing system trialing with 2,000+ tons of planned storage capacity, and the mBridge settlement project (which the BIS abandoned once Western central bankers realized it competes with SWIFT) all signal price discovery migrating from Chicago paper markets to Shanghai physical markets. He notes Putin demanded payment in gold, Bitcoin, or rubles for energy after the Ukraine war began, and envisions BRICS bilateral trade with net settlement in physical gold.
Peak supply and the perfect storm: World gold production has been flat for a decade near peak; silver production peaked in 2016; copper lost ~3% of world output to accidents and closures (BHP down 7%, Rio Tinto down ~9%, Codelco lower), while Robert Friedland warns the world needs as much copper in the next 25 years as was produced in the last 2,000. The industry discovers perhaps 20–30 million gold ounces annually against 100 million produced, with post-2030 deficits in silver, copper, and uranium set to widen — shortages, currency debasement, and geopolitical confrontation forming his “perfect storm” for hard assets.
Miner leverage and the M&A wave: Gold miners’ collective free cash flow has surpassed the tech sector’s (Newmont generating nearly $1 billion monthly) while trading at valuations 20–40x cheaper than tech, with reserves still calculated at $1,500–$2,000 gold — meaning huge ounce conversions as assumptions rise. Discovery-stage buyout multiples have jumped from ~$1 billion to $3–6 billion (Reunion Gold at $800 million, then neighbor G2 Goldfields near $3–4 billion), his fund has logged 90+ exits since 2008 and doubled AUM last year, and Chinese buyers (like CMOC’s $1.7 billion Ecuador deal) provide a floor bid for projects Western majors won’t touch — he also predicts, per his Substack, that China has effectively forbidden Putin from nuclear use and could welcome a Russian crisis to claim Siberian resources.