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3 Sunday Morning Thoughts – August 23 Edition

Written by Bryan Lutz, Editor at Dollarcollapse.com:

It’s Sunday, again.

We are fully at the end of Summer time and yet, I feel like the best is yet to come. I hope you feel the same way too because despite what’s happening with the USD, rising federal debt, and geopolitical issues (we can’t control) there’s a lot to good to enjoy when you have a plan.

Anyway, here’s what we do.

Every Sunday I share a few thoughts with you, and other subscribers at Dollar Collapse.

Sometimes we’ll talk about economics, sometimes recent events, and other times, life.

1. Family values aren’t just family values. They preserve wealth, but they do so by maintaining a glass floor.

Values allow you and your family to grow and maintain a family’s wealth from one generation to the next. They also do so much more…

Values have second order effects. For example…

If you value free, critical thinking, long-term relationships, and low time preference decision making then you may send your children to a private school over public schools. There, they will get a plethora of all-of-the-above.

They will develop the idea that institutions are negotiable and even optional. Then they will begin to see that relationships create resilience. If they make a mistake, lose a well-paying job, or fail in their own venture then the network they built throughout their childhood can and will pick them up again.

That’s because the glass floor below them has been developed by generations (maybe you’re the first generation) of low-time preference decision making. So, they never strive even though they’ll work hard.

You see, values can perpetuate your family’s wealth, but they can also maintain what seems like a “glass ceiling” to the average joe…

As a result, that “ceiling” becomes your floor.

 

2. Bitcoin appears to either be cycling back up, or responding to treasury bond yields. Here are some things to be aware of…

There are two big reasons for Bitcoin’s price rising.

Be careful of them all because there’s a lot of manipulation in the markets.

Over the last two weeks, Secretary of the US Treasury, Scott Bessent has been attempting to bailout the US Treasury by recycling maturing debt with new, short-term debt. And lately, he bought some of the 30-year treasury bonds back.

Last month, he had to sell A LOT of bonds to accomplish those schemes. I think it was around $453B in July, which was 25% more than last year in the same month. But he has a good reason for the increase.

The US Supreme court has been shooting down Trump’s “tactical” tariffs as unlawful. So the federal government was forced to issue some BIG refunds in July. Thus, the huge increase from last year.

However, Bessent is still perpetuating his schemes. Internationally too. He’s been spending dollars to prop up the yen.

So we have rising Treasury Bond Yields that simply cost too much for the government to repay.

Then there’s the Bitcoin cycle.

If the Bitcoin cycle is dead, Bitcoin’s recent 10% rise could be a bull trap, leading investors to buy in too high only to see it drop again.

However, if the Bitcoin cycle is intact then Bitcoin may have sat at its bottom long enough.

Now it’s starting back up to new cycle highs.

Here’s what Bitcoin/USD looks like as of Friday, August 21:

Also, thank you Jim Cramer for calling it like it is…

 

But, beware, big buyers like Blackrock have taken every advantage they can to sell some Bitcoin to drop the price. This shakes out retail investors who get afraid, lose their money and never buy again. When you’re dealing in hard assets, I believe it’s important to buy and hold more than ever right now.

 

3. Carrying on from that thought, gold and silver are also looking good for launch.

We are approaching a favorable season for gold. At the intersection of Indian buying season, rising treasury bond yields, and a Fed with their hands tied.

That being said, the important variable here is what the Fed will do with interest rates in the short term. If they raise interest rates in the short term, yields may lower as well as the price of gold and silver. However, this only delays the inevitable because raising interest rates increases the cost to service the US federal debt.

Gold continues to rise up above $4,600.

And silver is aiming for $70, below Tavi Costa shows the break out.

Gold is already above its 200MA, while silver hitting $71 (its 200MA) is just a matter of time.

In my opinion, we are looking at rising prices over the next several weeks.

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