Top Three Videos – September 27, 2026
Brent Johnson: The Fed Could Be ‘ABSORBED’ by Treasury...(September 23, 2026)
Miles Franklin Media...
Summary
Johnson reads Kevin Warsh’s unanimous 12-0 quarter-point hike to 3.75 to 4% as a symbolic credibility play by a new chair who will “absolutely cut” when needed, and argues the bigger story is that the Fed and Treasury are headed for a “marriage,” willingly or by shotgun, because the Fed was never independent, Bessent is already doing Fed-like things (Argentina swap lines, engineering a dollar shortage in Iraq, doubling long-end buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation), and dollar stablecoins let Treasury bypass the Fed as the government’s bank. He contends rising US rates are a “quadruple whammy” that hurts the rest of the world more than America, citing 2022 when the euro fell below par, the yen went from 100 to 160, Turkey spiraled and the ECB, BoE and BoJ all had to intervene, and warns anyone betting against Bessent that “he has his hand on the biggest button in the world.” His endgame is that de-dollarization can only happen with the dollar going higher, not lower, that a failure scenario means DXY at 130 to 150 with currency crises and wars, and that gold can reach $10,000 while the dollar remains dominant.
Top 5 Key Topics
- Warsh’s hike and what comes next: Johnson says nothing Warsh said was factually wrong (low unemployment, high spending, elevated inflation), but the 25 bp move was largely ineffectual and had to happen now because the next meeting falls four or five days before the election, so he expects a pause. He notes Warsh and Bessent both worked for Stanley Druckenmiller and doubts they are truly on opposite pages.
- Fiscal dominance in reverse: Johnson partly agrees with Warsh that hyperscaler capex is competing for capital and pushing yields up, and thinks markets fund them because they are seen as too-big-to-fail national security assets. He rejects the idea that a 10-year over 5% means the US is broke; investors simply want to be paid more.
- Why the Fed loses to Treasury: Over 70 years there have been four or five public Fed-Treasury fights and the Fed answers to Congress, which could yank its charter. In a deglobalizing, America-first world lasting 20 to 40 years, a unified Fed-Treasury is a sharper weapon, and stablecoins mean the government no longer needs a physical bank distribution system.
- America-first liquidity and the dollar paradox: In the next crisis, Johnson expects swap lines and QE reserved for US firms and allies rather than the whole world, which would crush foreign currencies and push DXY higher, the only path to real de-dollarization. Creating dollar credit to weaken the dollar only re-dollarizes the world until the debt comes due, as when DXY fell from 104 to 89 post-COVID then hit 114.
- Portfolio positioning: Hold 5 to 15% cash to be a distressed buyer rather than seller, own gold regardless of price (it could revisit $4,000 from $4,300 and still be far higher in five years), expect US equities higher with scary drawdowns, favor productive farmland over apartment complexes in Toledo, and stay in the US except for Central and South America, which he sees integrating with North America.
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Ryan McMaken & Jonathan Newman: Why the Fed Had to Raise the Interest Rate...(Sept 25, 2026)
Radio Rothbard...
Summary
McMaken and Newman dismiss the Fed’s first hike in three years, from 3.75% to 4% on a unanimous vote, as “too little too late,” a move forced by market expectations, hot employment and PCE data, and creeping 10- and 30-year yields rather than any real inflation-fighting resolve, noting the Fed has missed its 2% target for 65 consecutive months. Newman argues the US has entered fiscal dominance, with a deficit near $1.8 trillion through August and heading toward $2 trillion, so hikes paradoxically worsen deficits by raising Treasury’s interest expense, and the Fed is a follower when rates rise and a leader only when it pushes them down. They blame today’s inflation on the $4 to $6 trillion of money creation under Trump in 2020, mock the “Biden inflation” narrative and the “geopolitical developments” excuse for a war with Iran that pushed diesel above $6, and describe money printing as a heroin shot whose delayed bill lands on fixed-income households.
Top 5 Key Topics
- The hike changed nothing in the bond market: Since the decision the 10-year stayed above 5%, the 30-year above 5.3%, and the 30-year fixed mortgage above 7%, showing the Fed manipulates rates but does not set them. The Fed’s own projections of 2% inflation, 4.1% unemployment and steady growth are dismissed as political language that is “always wrong.”
- Fiscal dominance and COVID-level deficits: Spending under Trump is now at levels normally seen only in war or crisis, close to the COVID peak. Newman says Treasury’s borrowing needs will override anything the Fed does, and only a Volcker-style move accompanied by rising unemployment would signal seriousness, which he expects will not happen.
- The neutral rate debate: A paper summarized by Nick Timiraos attributes 80 to 90% of the post-2020 rise in long yields to windows around payroll releases and Fed speeches, implying expectations rather than real factors drive the neutral rate. Newman suspects an endogeneity problem since labor data and Fed speeches themselves reflect real conditions and Treasury borrowing needs.
- Who printed the money: The hosts insist the 2020 monetary expansion of roughly $4 to $6 trillion under Trump, layered on nonstop inflation since 2009 and an $8 trillion Fed balance sheet, caused the 40-year-high inflation of 2022 and 2023 and a 25% loss of purchasing power. Biden did nothing to reverse it but would have done the same, and the public’s inability to track lags makes money printing politically ideal.
- Cultural costs and a glimmer of hope: Fiat inflation breeds present-focus, less saving, family and community breakdown and greater government dependence, a vicious cycle. Their optimism rests on Ron Paul’s lasting damage to Fed prestige and the collapse of trust in experts after COVID.
Peter Krauth: The New Silver Bull Cycle: How to Profit...(September 23, 2026)
Metal Investors Forum...
Summary
The speaker argues silver is early in a new 30-year secular commodity bull cycle that began in 2023, with the Fed trapped between a $40 trillion debt, $2 trillion annual deficits and $1 trillion in interest (now exceeding defense spending) on one side and 65 consecutive months of above-target inflation on the other, so it will ultimately sacrifice the dollar via yield curve control, which Treasury has already begun through its own long-bond purchases and yen intervention funded by selling euros. He says industrial use has climbed from half of silver consumption a decade ago to 65% last year, with solar, AI and data centers, and EVs set to absorb 35 to 40% of annual supply within five years while mine output has been stuck below its 900 million ounce 2016 peak. The best play now is silver stocks rather than the metal: the largest producers have all-in sustaining costs of $12.21, giving 83% margins at $70 silver, top miners earn 31% margins versus roughly half that for tech and financials, and silver stocks have just broken out against both gold stocks and the silver price.
Top 5 Key Topics
- Macro setup for inflation: Money supply is growing at a 5% clip, oil is soaring with the Iran war unresolved, the 10-year has topped 5% and G7 30-year yields run 4 to 7%, and the bond market “laughed” at Bessent’s “I’m the house now.” Inflation has stayed above 2% since March 2021 with a low of 2.6% in April last year and rising since.
- 30-year commodity cycles: Bull cycles began in 1933, 1963, 1993 and 2023, and the first 15 years are the profitable half, with the Bloomberg Commodity Index returning 220% to 525% in those phases. He polled the room and no one thought the silver bull is over.
- Demand from tech, EVs and solar: IT sector power consumption is up 50 times in 25 years, AI and data centers are projected to use 100 million ounces of silver within three years, autos another 100 million ounces within five, and solar around 150 million ounces. Discovery to production takes 15 years, so supply cannot respond.
- Miners as cash machines: 75% of silver comes as byproduct, so rising gold, copper, lead and zinc credits push silver costs down while the metal price doubled. Top-10 silver-majority producers sit on record cash, which he expects to flow next to advanced developers, developers and explorers.
- Relative value and track record: Silver stocks lagged gold stocks for a decade and lagged silver since 2016 but both ratios have now broken out, and on price-to-NAV terms miners have actually gotten cheaper despite the run. Six of the TSX’s top 30 three-year performers came from his silver universe with 400% to nearly 10x returns, and his group hosts its first conference November 5 at the Fairmont Pacific Rim.