Top Three Videos – November 11, 2026
Ted Oakley: This Cycle Is Ending, I’m 50% in Cash and Treasuries...(November 5, 2026)
Kitco NEWS...
Summary
Ted Oakley of Oxbow Advisors says the cycle is ending, that the post-election bounce is just chasing, and that the market’s valuation signals (CAPE and market cap to GDP) sit at levels last seen in 1929 and 1999, with the S&P held up by about 20 stocks while the other 480 are 18 to 20% off their highs. He expects a slowing economy and weakness through the first 7 to 9 months of next year, so he has trimmed gold miners, sold out of silver, cut copper and iron, sold 20% of his top five energy winners, shorted uranium, and is selling Google and Microsoft, while holding bullion and core royalty and miner positions. His money is going into 3 to 5 year Treasuries and short corporates (about 40% cash and Treasuries in the stock strategy, roughly 58% in high income), betting on rate cuts by mid-year, and he warns that when markets crack everything falls, including gold and miners, so liquidity and capital protection come first.
Top 5 Key Topics
- Valuation signal and narrow market: CAPE and total market value to GDP both sit at historic highs, matching 1929 and 1999, and the averages are already off their highs. About 20 stocks in the same industries have carried the S&P 500 while the other 480 were 18 to 20% off their highs, with more annual lows than highs.
- Slower economy, gridlock, midterm lore: Oakley dismisses the Stock Trader’s Almanac midterm pattern (average 15% gain) and expects fairly decent weakness in the first 7 to 9 months of next year. Gridlock means no fiscal help from Congress, and he expects falling commodities and inflation (now about 3.6%) with the Fed cutting rates by mid-year.
- Trimming miners, out of silver: He never sells bullion but cut gold miners because they fall far harder, citing 2008 when gold fell over 20% and miners fell over 60%. He is out of silver and silver miners after the 200 to 300% run in 2025, saying such peaks usually need 15 to 18 months to wash out, and he keeps core holdings like Agnico Eagle, Royal Gold, Wheaton Precious and Southern Cross.
- Taking profits in energy, commodities: Two weeks ago he sold 20% of his top five energy winners (up 100 to 150%), plus Schlumberger and Noble, and he kept producers, high dividend payers and pipelines. He cut copper and iron, is short uranium, and still expects oil to go substantially higher over 5 to 10 years but not in the next 6 months.
- Treasuries, cash and protection: Proceeds go into 3 to 5 year Treasuries and corporates paying about 5.25%, avoiding the 30-year, with about 40% in cash and Treasuries in his stock strategy and about 58% in high income. A new million-dollar client would get no more than 20% in stocks and 50 to 60% in Treasuries, and he warns that retirees aged 65 to 85 holding 85 to 90% in stocks are making the biggest mistake.
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Zachary Yost: Why Western Civilization Is Different...(November 6, 2026)
misesmedia...
Summary
Ryan McMaken and Zachary Yost argue that Western civilization’s attachment to freedom grew out of a medieval convergence of institutions, religion and family structure, not out of Greece, Rome or a sudden Enlightenment break. McMaken follows the Lord Acton and Ralph Raico view that centuries of conflict between church and secular rulers, plus city charters, contracts and representative assemblies, created a decentralized order in which individual rights could be asserted against the state, while Yost adds geography, Dutch decentralization, church marriage rules, and Gregory Clark’s controversial hereditarian thesis. Their conclusion is that the Enlightenment mostly codified older Christian and medieval constraints on power, that Rousseau’s general will was the damaging exception, and that the West’s rise from 5th century backwater to the 19th century’s most important region cannot be explained by any single factor.
Top 5 Key Topics
- Church versus state fractured power: Following Acton and Raico, McMaken says Christianity was necessary but not sufficient, since the Eastern Roman Empire persisted until the 15th century under Caesaropapism without embracing freedom. In the West, from St. Ambrose barring the emperor from his basilica to the Pope defeating Frederick’s attempt to unify the Holy Roman Empire, constant church-state conflict prevented either side from taking full control.
- Greeks and Romans were not liberal: McMaken cites Benjamin Constant to argue that ancient liberty meant only not being ruled by foreigners, with the individual subordinate to the state, and calls the Roman Republic as American-style liberalism made-up history. He says a farmer in the provinces after Rome’s fall was better off with no tax collectors, and that the Dark Ages story comes from anti-church Renaissance thinkers like Petrarch.
- Marriage rules broke up clans: Yost, drawing on Joseph Henrich’s The Weirdest People in the World and Larry Siedentop-style arguments, says the church pushed consanguinity bans out as far as seven generations and dissolved clan organization, enabling individualism. McMaken adds the Western European marriage pattern: later marriage, many people never marrying, up to 10% in religious life, and children choosing their own spouses, which fed capital accumulation and trade beyond the clan.
- The Dutch model and medieval constitutions: Yost points to Pioneers of Capitalism on the Netherlands, where drainage boards, city-church conflicts and feudalism drove growth in a former backwater that built a globe-spanning empire. McMaken adds the Dukes of Burgundy’s light hand, the Eighty Years’ War as an early secession, the 1356 Joyous Entry of Brabant as a Magna Carta equivalent, and the many medieval assemblies where rulers had to ask taxpayers before taxing them.
- Enlightenment as extension, not break: Both argue the Enlightenment codified medieval ideas: Montesquieu systematized decentralization, human rights came from the Thomists and Bellarmine, and Christian morality already allowed tyrannicide. Yost favors the Scottish Enlightenment of Hume, Smith and Burke for its spontaneous order and cites Hayek on reason as dynamite, while McMaken calls Rousseau’s general will, which dissolves the individual into the mass, the worst damage to the West.
Chris MacIntosh: We're Entering a Massive Commodity Supply Crisis...(November 6, 2026)
VRIC Media...
Summary
Chris MacIntosh of Glenorchy Capital argues that the world is entering a stagflationary commodity cycle driven by monetary debasement of a collapsing debt-based system plus physical supply disruptions, and that owning producers is riskier than owning the logistics-diversified trading houses. His fertilizer trade (Nutrien, ICL, Mosaic) failed because the companies could not get inputs like sulfuric acid even as fertilizer prices rose (sulfur is up thousands of percent), and copper and sand deals in Argentina showed how diesel, transport and contract risks can sink a mining operation. He is shifting toward Japanese trading houses, Glencore and Trafigura-type businesses, offshore drill ships and Western Hemisphere energy, while staying long gold miners that he calls the cheapest since 2020 and are printing money, accepting that they could get cheaper still.
Top 5 Key Topics
- Fertilizer thesis failed on inputs: Glenorchy bet that higher fertilizer prices would expand margins at Nutrien, ICL and Mosaic, but the companies could not get sulfuric acid at any price, so Mosaic shut operations and the others saw no margin expansion. ICL trades at roughly a 10 forward PE with a 5% dividend, yet MacIntosh stays wary because supply access keeps hurting results.
- Sulfur shortage chokes copper output: Sulfur is a byproduct of oil cracking, and damaged refineries and a wide crack spread mean less of it, while China restricted sulfur exports and late Chinese acid shipments shut a Chilean copper producer. He also cites the Mopani smelter shutdowns in Zambia as proof that these disruptions are no longer isolated.
- Trading houses as the safer play: As industry shifts from just-in-time to just-in-case inventory, trading houses such as Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Marubeni, Sumitomo, Glencore and Trafigura benefit from warehousing demand and brokering across many mines and buyers. They are high-volume, low-margin and not deeply cheap, but their diversification means they are not forced to shut when one supplier fails.
- Underinvestment gives incumbents pricing power: Capex has been lacking since 2014 across refineries, drill ships, pipelines and ocean mapping, so MacIntosh argues owners of existing drill ships running near 90% capacity can keep pushing day rates higher without new entrants. He is neck deep in drill ships, sees the Valaris-Transocean deal as a cycle turn, and expects capital to rotate out of the AI bubble, with Chevron already returning to drilling.
- Debt debasement and cheap gold miners: Over-indebted governments will default or inflate, and MacIntosh says that monetary inflation is accelerating and is itself inflationary. He is long gold miners, which he says are the cheapest since 2020 despite printing money, sizes them as one asymmetric position in the portfolio, and admits they may get cheaper still.