The US is likely already in a recession, with multiple economic indicators pointing to a slowdown, partly by design due to Trump’s policies and internal resistance within the administration.
A potential monetary realignment is signaled by the surge in gold prices, with gold at $3,400 indicating a shift in the broader monetary environment.
Trump’s tariffs and trade war with China have caused significant disruptions to global supply chains, reminiscent of the COVID era, with China holding a de facto monopoly on critical goods.
The timing mismatch between the intent of tariffs and the US’s ability to establish domestic supply at workable prices remains an open question, causing pain to various industries.
The Federal Reserve, led by Jerome Powell, is actively opposing Trump’s policies, creating tension and uncertainty in the markets.
Trump’s behavior towards the Fed, including calling Powell names on social media, is deemed unbecoming of a president and has exacerbated the strained relationship.
The US possesses significant assets, including an enormous resource base, and is considered an energy superpower and technology powerhouse.
The energy market is currently well-supplied, with coal at $93/ton, natural gas at $3, landed LNG at $11, and Brent crude at $65, signaling plenty of supply.
Investors are advised to avoid short-term panic selling and focus on long-term strategies and maintaining a balanced portfolio to weather ongoing uncertainty.
Rebalancing portfolios slightly while mostly sticking to the original plan is recommended, as most everyday investors have a poor track record of timing the market.
Gold prices are poised to rise due to debt imbalances, de-globalization, and accumulation by countries like China, Russia, and Turkey to stabilize their monetary systems.
Higher gold prices could increase U.S. Treasury cash reserves by $800-900 billion, enabling Treasury buybacks to manipulate interest rates lower without Fed cooperation.
The U.S. dollar is in a structural downtrend due to high debt levels and interest burdens, potentially leading to a “Mara Lago accord” to manage currency relationships.
The gold-to-silver ratio at 100 suggests silver is undervalued, with potential for prices to double or triple while remaining plausible.
Mining stocks are historically undervalued relative to U.S. equities, offering attractive free cash flow yields and margins despite gold prices at record levels.
The gold-to-oil ratio is at the second highest level in history, indicating expanded margins for gold miners with all-in sustaining costs around $1500 or lower.
2-year Treasury yields at ~4% are considered extremely overvalued and could be cut in half within 12 months due to increased recession probability.
A rebalancing out of U.S. assets into emerging markets, particularly South America, is predicted as the dollar weakens and yields are capped.
The energy sector, especially oil, is poised for potential outperformance with possible return to triple-digit prices in the next year or two.
Exploration-stage mining investments, while riskier, offer significant upside potential and have historically generated the majority of wealth for industry billionaires.
Owning cheap assets and building value, rather than timing market fluctuations, is key to long-term wealth, as demonstrated by successful investors like Warren Buffett.
Silver’s industrial demand and investment appeal during economic uncertainty position it to outperform gold in a US-China trade war scenario.
The 100:1 silver-to-gold ratio and shortage of quality deposits in safe jurisdictions make silver an attractive investment opportunity.
Dolly Varden’s NYSE American listing (symbol: DVS) increases liquidity and institutional interest, providing easier access for US investors.
The company’s fully funded 2025 exploration program with four drill rigs serves as a significant catalyst for growth and value creation.
Gold’s safe haven status and the dollar’s declining purchasing power drive its strength amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
Silver’s dual role as an industrial metal and investment asset is highlighted by the sell-off in crude oil and copper, while investment demand remains strong.
Cut through the clutter and mainstream media noise. Get free, concise dispatches on vital news, videos and opinions. Delivered to Your email inbox daily. You’ll never miss a critical story, guaranteed.