Silver reaching $35 could signal a double top or triple top breakout, indicating electric price action on a macro basis.
If gold reaches $8,000 and silver maintains 2-3% of gold’s price, silver could potentially hit $160-$240.
Gold miners (GDX) poised to outperform gold, historically signaling an accelerated phase in market price action.
The T-bond market crash in early April and subsequent congestion suggests a bigger event for the central bank than Nvidia’s decline.
Gold’s price tripled over a decade while the dollar index remained stable, indicating gold’s rise is not dependent on a declining dollar.
If the T-bond market rolls over, central banks may realize they’ve lost control of government debt markets, potentially leading to full throttle monetary stimulus including QE.
A dramatic dollar decline could further boost gold, though gold has already made significant gains independently.
Gold has experienced two eight-fold bull moves in the past, suggesting potential for similar growth in the future.
The $39 trillion in US financial assets held by foreigners could disappear if they lose faith in the dollar, potentially triggering a massive economic crisis.
The credit bubble’s burst, evidenced by declining equity indices and ephemeral assets like Bitcoin, may lead to higher interest rates and worsening US government finances.
Zombie corporations unable to afford higher interest costs could contribute to a systemic collapse as interest rates rise to sustain the debt-fueled credit bubble.
BRICS nations are collaboratively building loyalty, confidence, and infrastructure, contrasting with the US’s punitive approach to international relations.
Trump’s policies, including tariffs and Fed policies, have destabilized markets and undermined confidence in the dollar, making it difficult for the US to attract foreign investment.
Russia and China may exploit the US dollar’s weakness as a vulnerability, potentially challenging US economic dominance.
Pension funds may need to rapidly adjust to a bear market in equities, shifting from 60% equities to 80% short-duration bonds to match long-term liabilities.
Banks in the EU and Japan, being highly leveraged, face potential exposure of bad debts and over-leverage as rising interest rates undermine commercial banking obligations.
The dollar’s decline is reflected in gold’s record highs, as foreign entities, including central banks and sovereign wealth funds, divest from US currency.
The US is caught in a debt trap, with a disintegrating tax base and recessionary economy, making it challenging to service debt and attract foreign lenders.
Gold has acted as a safe haven during recent market turmoil, with its price increasing from $1,800 to over $3,000 in the last 3 years, primarily driven by central bank purchases and institutional investors seeking risk-free assets.
The gold price has shown volatility but remains strong at $3,300, up from $2,700 at the beginning of the year, with Newmont’s Q1 earnings report showing an average gold selling price of $29.44.
The gold mining sector is in the second or third inning of a bull market, with best-in-class stocks up 10-20x since 2018, while the rest of the gold producers remain undervalued compared to their 2011 highs.
Newmont is expected to generate over $5 billion in free cash flow in 2025, potentially leading to share buybacks, dividend increases, or M&A activity.
The US dollar index is trending lower for the rest of 2025, influenced by the Trump administration’s policy of not desiring a strong dollar.
Investors are advised to diversify into countries like Canada, Australia, and Argentina, which have resources and rule of law, as the US equity markets may face a sell-off after a short-term rally.
Silver mining stocks trade at a premium to NAV due to limited investment options, with a potential breakout above $35 signaling a shift in market momentum.
The copper market indicates that the US-China trade situation is not as dire as feared, with copper trading at a premium to the LME price due to tariffs and scarcity in North America.
Junior explorers with gold in their names are currently high-risk investments with no revenues or cash flow, typically moving in the seventh inning of a bull market.
The gold mining bull market will eventually pull up junior explorers, but investors need to understand the risks and wait for the bull market to go all the way down the food chain.
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