Silver is expected to reach $60-$70 by year-end, potentially exceeding its nominal all-time highs of $50 in 1980 and 2011, equivalent to $196 in real terms today.
The silver mining sector is in an epic bull market, with the SIL ETF up 67%, vastly outperforming silver itself and the broad market.
Gold’s value is driven by the certainty of ongoing degradation of the money unit, evidenced by its 11-fold increase over 25 years versus the S&P 500’s 3.5-fold increase.
The gold mining sector is thriving, with many majors printing cash at current high gold prices, up 60-70% on the year compared to the S&P’s 9% increase.
A “broadening top” pattern is unfolding in the stock market, potentially indicating a long-term topping process and a serious long-term correction.
Historical crashes like 1929 and 2000 began with an initial crash, followed by a 50% rally, then a grinding bloodletting over years, resulting in 80% drops.
Bitcoin’s monthly price chart mirrors the NASDAQ 100 bubble market behavior, with potential for a sudden trouble and ambush effect if it drops below key levels.
The uranium market is in a serious correction, likely to reach its three-year average of $70 this year, despite robust uranium stocks.
The oil market shows sideways movement with no clear trend after peaking at $130 in early 2022 and subsequently collapsing.
The T-bond market, larger than the stock market, is behaving atypically, emphasizing the importance of analyzing the broad horizon to understand market dynamics.
The Dollar Milkshake Theory posits that in every crisis of the last 50 years, monetary authorities inject new liquidity, with the US having the “biggest straw” to absorb it, pushing the dollar higher against foreign currencies.
A stronger US dollar is a big problem, while a weaker dollar is not, according to Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital.
The dollar’s rise in 2022 was linked to the global margin call on the dollar, while its fall was due to massive liquidity provision, not actions by other countries.
Current dollar positioning and sentiment, with near-record short interest and extreme bearishness, resembles 2018 when the dollar unexpectedly surged, setting up potential for a big drawdown.
In a global crisis, people initially repatriate funds from the US, causing the dollar to fall, but when it turns into a liquidity crisis, the dollar rises rapidly.
The Fed’s primary goal is to perpetuate the system and government, not just achieve employment and stable prices.
The Fed has always weakened the dollar through QE and providing more liquidity, indicating that a lower dollar is the Fed’s preference.
Rising interest rates and geopolitical fragmentation are setting the stage for a major liquidity event that could trigger a global financial crisis before year-end.
A yen carry trade unwind could lead to a liquidity nightmare for the rest of the world, with the yen rallying against the dollar while the dollar rallies against all other currencies except the yen.
The US government is likely to regulate and control stablecoins, such as USDT, to maintain the dollar’s status as the global reserve currency.
The government could regulate gold mining, require reporting of gold transactions, and impose capital controls on gold to prevent it from challenging the dollar’s status.
The US government has the power to regulate Bitcoin exchanges, require reporting of transactions, and impose capital controls on Bitcoin to prevent it from becoming widely accepted.
In a global crisis, the US is expected to handle it better than the rest of the world due to its numerous advantages, and will likely be the last one standing
Record gold imports to the US in Q1 2025, with a 17x increase from Q1 2024 and 3 million ounces requested for August delivery, valued at over $10 billion, indicating institutional-level buying ahead of potential gold revaluation.
Federal Reserve quietly published a research note in August 2025 outlining how a gold revaluation could help the US with its debt crisis, suggesting recent import surge is a coordinated effort by institutional players and sovereign actors.
Physical deliveries of gold and silver from COMEX are surpassing historical records, with thousands of contracts requested monthly, representing millions of ounces being pulled into private hands, signaling a new norm of institutional buying.
Gold revaluation could generate hundreds of billions to trillions in profit for the US by updating gold’s book value without selling, explaining the strategic positioning of major players.
Physical gold and silver possession is crucial, as paper markets may fail during economic downturns, with potential tariffs or overnight revaluation making physical metal acquisition difficult.
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