The US-China trade war is a battle for global hegemony, with the US trying to maintain dominance while China aims to rise on the world stage, resulting in a mutually symbiotic relationship.
A surge in reshoring efforts has seen companies like GE, Intel, Apple, Toyota, and Samsung announce plans to bring manufacturing back to the US, creating new jobs and reversing the flow of capital and labor.
Despite initial concerns, tariffs have not led to price increases for many imported goods, with Chinese automakers absorbing the costs to maintain market share.
The US Congressional Budget Office projects that Trump’s tariffs will generate over $3.3 trillion in revenue over the next decade, potentially helping to reduce the deficit.
The EU has agreed to Trump’s terms, implementing tariffs of 15% on most goods and 50% on steel and aluminum, while the UK has set 10% tariffs on most goods and 25% on autos.
Canada, led by Mark Carney, negotiated a deal including 35% tariffs on non-USMCA goods and 10% on energy and potash, despite initial resistance.
Trump’s tariff policy is a key part of his national security and geopolitical strategy, aimed at achieving domestic and global goals beyond pure economic impact.
The US has secured significant trade deals with countries like the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, committing to $1.4 trillion in US investments, strengthening Trump’s position in the trade war.
The US faces $28 trillion in US treasuries due by 2028, with net sellers since 2014 and net buyers of gold, creating uncertainty about who will purchase this massive debt.
US debt levels are historically unprecedented and unsustainable, with interest expense on Treasury debt alone exceeding $1 trillion per year, surpassing the military budget.
The US dollar has lost 99% of its value since 1971 and its purchasing power has decreased by 87% since 1980, indicating extreme debasement in one lifetime.
Gold has outperformed the S&P in total return over the last 25 years, despite Wall Street consensus that it’s too volatile.
China is estimated to have 30,000 tons of gold, significantly more than the US’s 8,131 tons, potentially giving China immense leverage in the global economic landscape.
Silver has a 45-year cup and handle formation waiting to break out, with a 4-5 year supply deficit and insufficient COMEX inventory for shorting.
The top 10% of Americans own 90% of the stock market, while the middle class struggles, with 60% of Americans not having attended college.
The stock market is described as “ridiculous” and “ignorant” of long-term risks, with 7 monopolistic companies accounting for 40% of the S&P’s market cap.
Gold revaluation could be a “hail Mary solution” to address US debt levels, but would not solve underlying structural economic problems and could destroy the US dollar.
The only way to solve the US debt problem is to cut entitlements and military spending significantly, which is politically challenging but mathematically necessary.
The Swift system, a key pillar of the US dollar’s exorbitant privilege, is rapidly changing, with the Bricks system and SIP system already replacing it in many ways.
Stablecoins are viewed as a “desperate but understandable act” to subsidize the US treasury market, but are not truly stable as they’re backed by volatile US Treasuries.
US credit card debt exceeds $1 trillion, margin debt on the stock market is over $1 trillion, and car repossessions are at all-time highs, indicating a broader debt crisis.
Platinum is described as a “speculation asset” that has been ignored but is massively underpriced and will be needed for catalytic converters in the green economy.
Rising long bond yields in major currencies indicate increasing risk in fiat currencies and potential collapse in the Eurozone due to Germany’s tanking economy.
The gold price is expected to break out upwards in weeks, not months, as investors anticipate events like a currency collapse or bond market crash.
An equity market crash is anticipated as bond yields rise, drawing parallels to the 1929 crash and the current biggest credit bubble in history.
The Fed has admitted it can only fund the US Treasury with short-term (<5 years) instruments, relying on T-bills due to disappointing auctions.
The American administration may flood the system with liquidity to prevent a nominal market crash, potentially causing the gold price to soar in real terms.
The 30-year JGB situation mirrors the German long bond, signaling a global long duration bond crisis with rising yields pricing in increasing risk.
The property market may collapse as mortgage rates exceed 10%, making it unaffordable for families with large mortgages, similar to the 1922-1923 German currency collapse.
Understanding the difference between credit (incorporeal money) and real money (corporeal) like gold is crucial during a currency collapse.
In a gold standard, currency becomes a gold substitute, enabling disciplined money supply and stable prices.
The current situation echoes the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1929-1930, with Donald Trump’s tariff policies potentially contributing to economic instability.
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