Summary
The end of the Ukraine-Russia war may have severe economic consequences, including currency destruction, a potential global financial crisis, and a catastrophic economic downturn, making it essential to prepare by holding alternative assets and protecting one’s savings.
Global Power Dynamics
The Ukraine-Russia war is a proxy conflict between the US and Russia, with Ukraine used as a spearhead to destabilize Russia and potentially attack China, but this strategy has failed.
The deep state in US intelligence and defense is attempting to prevent Russia and China from gaining power, but they’re on a losing wicket as America’s hegemonic position declines.
Economic Disruption
Trump’s tariffs are likely to have a greater disruptive effect than the 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which led to a 90% stock market loss and 10,000 bank bankruptcies.
The global economy’s delicate supply chains and advanced logistics make it highly vulnerable to disruptions like tariffs, potentially destroying fine-tuned machines of global trade.
Financial Crisis
The current US credit bubble is larger than pre-1929 crash levels, with tariffs potentially triggering a major economic crisis exceeding Smoot-Hawley’s impact.
The Western financial system is collapsing due to its unsustainable debt-based nature, with credit losing value while gold rises as currencies collapse.
Monetary Policy Challenges
The Federal Reserve is in a precarious position, as raising interest rates could bankrupt businesses and banks, while options like revaluing gold reserves are limited without addressing budget deficits.
A credit crisis will lead to a collapse in currency purchasing power, not inflation, with long bond yields breaking out and the dollar falling against gold.
Investment Implications
The gold to silver ratio of 87-88 indicates silver is significantly undervalued, while base metal prices in gold terms are also undervalued.
In a currency collapse, gold and real money will emerge as the only safe havens, while investors in paper assets risk being wiped out.
The vast majority of people with savings in company pension schemes will lose significantly in a currency collapse, severely impacting retirees and their life savings.